Woody's NBA Season thread

[woodyman]

Hey Guys,

Well i want to try and post my tips each day to hold myself accountable...

Starting off with the first game on Wednesday our time.

Cavs -4.5 $50@1.91 (Sportingbet)

The Cavs are a very good home ATS team. 27-14 ATS last year.
They are 5-0 ats in the last 5 home games vs boston and have an average winning margin of 17 points.
I like Lebron and Co to get me off to a good start to the season.

 

[roguless54]

Good luck, I will be keeping an eye on this thread especially over summer months with no footy.

Might even follow you in on a couple of your bets.

 

[mattys123]

Who's your overall tip for the title Woody?

Are you going for the favs, in the Lakers or Cavs, or have you got an outsider at decent value.

I haven't done a lot of pre season thoughts on the NBA yet, usually pick up the season after the spring racing carnival and follow it through to the play offs from there.

I'd love the Spurs to bounce back, but I just can't see it happening, although they will still probably make the playoffs.

I'll keep an eye on this thread, and if I've got anything left in my account(s) after Cup week, I too might follow some of your bets, best of luck.

 

[Rocco_S]

I'd love the Spurs to bounce back, but I just can't see it happening, although they will still probably make the playoffs.

I can. Pop is a genius, Duncan and Ginobili will be nursed through the regular season, and RJ adds another fresh dimension. $11 are great odds, have already had a splash.

 

[woodyman]

Who's your overall tip for the title Woody?

Are you going for the favs, in the Lakers or Cavs, or have you got an outsider at decent value.

I haven't done a lot of pre season thoughts on the NBA yet, usually pick up the season after the spring racing carnival and follow it through to the play offs from there.

I'd love the Spurs to bounce back, but I just can't see it happening, although they will still probably make the playoffs.

I'll keep an eye on this thread, and if I've got anything left in my account(s) after Cup week, I too might follow some of your bets, best of luck.

Havent really had a good think about it yet but i think the Lakers will be very Hard to beat. The spurs are very good value, and with Duncan getting on could be one of their last chances.
Another outsider i expect to have a big season is the Nuggets.

Also wouldnt mind looking at the clippers making the Playoffs. Decent Preseason and i think they have some good pieces this year and if Baron can stay healthy and play well they could challenge for 8th.

 

[Dutchy10]

Good luck Woody

 

[SUPASTARR]

Nobody rates the Magic?? Was it a fluke they played off in the finals??

 

[woodyman]

Magic are a very good side and i expect them to make the conference finals.

 

[popathon]

Hey Guys,

Well i want to try and post 1-2 tips a day to hold myself accountable...

Starting bankroll is $500
Starting off with the first game on Wednesday our time.

Cavs -4.5 $50@1.91 (Sportingbet)

The Cavs are a very good home ATS team. 27-14 ATS last year.
They are 5-0 ats in the last 5 home games vs boston and have an average winning margin of 17 points.
I like Lebron and Co to get me off to a good start to the season.

I'd be wary about the cavs for the first 2 weeks. Parker may start at the 2 spot which is a big downgrade from Delonte. I'd stay away from this game as i can see the celtics getting up. I'd rather multi Lakers over clips, Portland over Houston and Dallas over Washington.

 

[pacemaker]

hmm plenty to think about

 

[TheTrav]

I like going over/under after a few games, made a packet the 2nd half of last season doing it, just the start of the season can be a little tricky.

 

[brent-83]

Boston Celtics -5.0 v Cleveland
I think there are a number of red flags about Cleveland early in the season.
1. Shaq not knowing the plays/not playing as a cohesive unit in the first few weeks
2. Delonte West drama
Washington / Dallas Over 205.5

 

[Moo]

I've put $50 on the Cavs at the line too Woodster so let's see if it is great minds.

 

[mercurial]

Good luck with it Woody, it is a really tough grind going day-to-day in the NBA season if you can beat it good luck to you. Don't mean to come across as a smartarse or anything but if your starting bank is $500 you should probably be betting a little smaller, something between 2-5% ($10-$25) particularly in the first few weeks of the season when you are still getting a feel on the teams.

Again not trying to be smart it's just I know how tough the grind of the NBA season can be betting wise and you do need to practice discipline if you can manage it, because you WILL go through downswings at times, it is inevitable.

PS Celtics/Cavs U187 in the opener

 

[deledio_gun]

I am keen to post and keep record of my tally just to see how im going throughout the season. I will keep a total at the bottom to record my up to date tally. Good luck with it all guys.

$10 - Portland/Cleveland @ $1.82

 

[woodyman]

Good luck with it Woody, it is a really tough grind going day-to-day in the NBA season if you can beat it good luck to you. Don't mean to come across as a smartarse or anything but if your starting bank is $500 you should probably be betting a little smaller, something between 2-5% ($10-$25) particularly in the first few weeks of the season when you are still getting a feel on the teams.

Again not trying to be smart it's just I know how tough the grind of the NBA season can be betting wise and you do need to practice discipline if you can manage it, because you WILL go through downswings at times, it is inevitable.

PS Celtics/Cavs U187 in the opener

You are correct 10% is too much to be betting but im going to have a risk for my first game of the season. Most of my bets will be 2.5 to 5% of my bankroll, unless i really like it and it will be a 10%.

Money management is the key to a long nba season.

 

[mike262]

im on cavs -2, was/dal O205.5 and LAL -10.

Lets win big

 

[mike262]

You are correct 10% is too much to be betting but im going to have a risk for my first game of the season. Most of my bets will be 2.5 to 5% of my bankroll, unless i really like it and it will be a 10%.

Money management is the key to a long nba season.

Another important factor is winning

P.S. Im on Cavs too. BOL

 

[lidzychief]

boston +4.5/over 187.5
portland -9.5/over 186.5
lakers

 

[Ekulman]

Ill be riding the lakers hard for the best part of the season.
They play 17 of their first 21 games at home.
Clippers are no chance tomorrow. Griffin is out and Davis and Camby are unlikely.

$50 on Lakers -10 @ 1.91

 

[dUkezz]

hi guys just a quick question... i have a multi which all legs have won but just 1 to go which is lakers -10.5
i outlayed $35 and the payout is 250... now my queston is
1) should i hedge, if so how?

opinions appreciated, thanx all

 

[deledio_gun]

hi guys just a quick question... i have a multi which all legs have won but just 1 to go which is lakers -10.5
i outlayed $35 and the payout is 250... now my queston is
1) should i hedge, if so how?

opinions appreciated, thanx all

im not too expereinced at the whole hedging bets but something along these lines will gaurentee you a profit;

$120 on Clippers +10.5 @ 1.91 will return you $229.20 for $155 outlay (added the $35)

And if Lakers get up you win $250 for the $155 outlay

It significantly reduced your profit but has no risk. So for an outlay of an extra $120 you can lock in a profit of around $75

 

[TheTrav]

You know what's weird, I punt and punt hard, and still have no idea how to use betfair haha

 

[deledio_gun]

You know what's weird, I punt and punt hard, and still have no idea how to use betfair haha

haha it took me a long time to give it a go as it looks scary but once you fiddle for a while it makes sense. great odds too if your betting straight on something! It does also have a multi function which isn't the greatest but adds something more to it! IF you need a referal code let me know

btw, you wouldnt need to betfair to hedge how i mentioned above

 

[dUkezz]

im actually thinking of just riding the bet out as im confident the lakers can do the job over the clippers quite comfortably.... heres to hoping... also got another multi with cavs/ portland and lakers all h2h to return 178