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Such a dull part of the draw for us, and indeed most of the top 6-7.
What's really happened in the past month - 6 weeks? Sydney's pipped Ess; Coll pipped WCE; Crows lost to Collingwood - and that's about it. They've all basically plowed through bottom sides.
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With St Kilda's recent form and injuries/suspensions, we should be able to pick them apart in the second half. North are enjoying some kind of resurgence, and may have even more momentum in a few weeks. Port are always a danger side for us, but we're improving against them, and in interstate matches in general. As you say, these three are must-win matches, but are not walk-overs by any stretch. If we come out to do the job (as we did against the Dogs) then we should be safe.We can't afford to drop any silly games. We must beat St K, Port and North. We than have to get a couple of wins from Geelong, Hawthorn, Richmond and Carlton.
I'd expect us to lose against Collingwood and Adelaide. That'll give us 15 wins and a probable 5th-6th finish which at the start of the year, I would of taken.
I like the course of this conversation.Damn it. Why did he declare Top 4?!
They would need two finals wins, you would think - at the very least. Can't see it happening.
Of course, there is the possibility that someone less competent than Ratten is appointed in his stead...

With our tough run home and injuries to key players is there a chance we might miss the 8?
2 more wins would get us in- Port, North, Carlton, Geelong and Richmond would be our best chancesThe best way to see how we're going compared to ninth.
As it standsthe following teams are below us
Geelong (9 wins)
St. Kilda (7 wins)
-------------------
Carlton (7 wins)
Richmond (7 wins)
North (7 wins)
Fremantle (7 wins)
At this stage, with our superior percentage two of those teams in the 8-12 bracket would need to win 4 more games than us in these final 8 weeks.
Unlikely but definitely possible.
Just had another crack, and surprised myself again:
Had our games as:
Hawthorn (L)
Adelaide (L)
North (W)
Carlton (W)
Richmond (W)
Collingwood (L)
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If we upset Hawthorn and Collingwood, we'll finish 4th, despite our recent balls ups.
Of course it wouldn't be unlike us to beat both, and then lose to North and Carlton.
If we play like we were earlier in the year, we'll win most games, but gee we look to have been worked out.
Would hate to play Geelong in an elimination final.
We would go in as underdogs, something we love. Need to learn to play as the hunted not the hunter.Would hate to play Geelong in an elimination final.
Would hate to play Geelong in an elimination final.
I did mine last night
Hawthorn 72
Adelaide 72
Collingwood 72
Sydney 68
West Coast 60
North 56
Geelong 52
Essendon 52
St Kilda and Geelong losses have hurt us.
If we can get wins against North, Carlton and Richmond we’ll sneak up to 6th I reckon. North game will be crucial.