Brownlow Medal 2010 (Part 3)

[twarby]

Hahah, great effort but who cared?



Im guessing this is a real question and am thinking your not in it. A private forum where they mainly discuss DT and SC and anything footy related like the brownlow. Only special posters get invited, sometimes the real talented get invited 3 times.


unsure what you mean by this, but lets keep to brownlow stuff

we mainly discuss the quality of your posts

 

[DT_35]

What are people's multis they are putting down?

Some of mine include:

Group 3 - Chapman, Group 4 - Brown, Ade-Thompson, Ess - Watson, Port - Boak, WB - Boyd $5 @ 90.84 = $454

Group 3 - Chapman, Group 4 - Dalsanto, Ade-Thompson, Ess - Watson, Port - Boak $5 @ 74 = $370

I like em

Reckon Chapman will get it ahead of Franklin. Winner of Group 4 will come from Brown/Dal Santo. I've used Thompson/Watson as locks. Bock I'm about 75% confident of, and have got him in a few multis. Boyds a very good chance for Dogs.

 

[carpsi]

Ablett

Round 1: 37 Touches, 2 Goals, 4 Tackles, 5 Inside 50s. 3 VOTES

Round 2: 38 Touches, 6 Tackles, 5 Inside 50s. 2/3 VOTES

Round 3: 33 Touches, 4 Goals, 4 Tackles, 4 GC, 6 Inside 50s. 2 VOTES. Pavlich BOG

Round 4: 37 Touches, 3 Goals, 4 Tackles, 4 GC. 3 VOTES. Chappy 2, Corey 1.

Round 5: 33 Touches, 2 Goals, 7 Tackles. 2 VOTES

Round 6: DNP

Round 7: 38 touches, 10 marks, 2 goals. 3 VOTES

Round 8: S.Johnson 3 Votes, Chapman 2 Votes, Bartel 1 Votes

Round 9: 32 Touches, 1 Goal, 3 Tackles. 1/2 VOTES. Kelly BOG

Round 10: 35 Touches, 2 Goals, 4 Tackles, 6 Inside 50s. 2 VOTES. Selwood BOG.

Round 11: 24 Touches, 2 Goals, 7 Tackles, 3 GC, 5 Inside 50's. 1/2 Votes. Chapman BOG.

= 19/20, 16 Minimum, 22 Max
Easily..

With a disposal efficiency of 60%....7 clangers. Ablett had more possessions, higher disposal efficiency, more clearances, contest possessions, 6 more tackles. but yes, Bartel will get the 3 Votes against Hawthorn. Ablett just ahead of Mitchell for the 2 IMO but you have him on 0? interesting...

I feel you are basing your votes from SC and DT scores and averages. There is more to it than that. You also have Goddard in the 20s, I assume because he has a high SC and DT Average. Well.... SC and DT dont factor in how many times he threatens to kill the umpires during the game. Its the best and FAIREST.

You'd get good odds for Boak to win Adelaide...

I'd be more than happy to lay that one. Id give him great odds on that

This is why this thread has derailed and why it has split. Criticism over a typo. So mature. The people who work hard throughout the season and share their views have to seive and dodge through rubbish like this.

I've seen winner 31 or more votes paying $7 at some places - anyone reckon Swan can get there if he polls this time? I'm sensing a bit of bias on these boards to punters hoping the longer odds (Pendlebury, Selwood etc) can get up but I can see Swan going close to 40 (if everything goes right...)

Rd 1 v Dogs - 3 (31 touches 3 goals - O'Brien/Shaw/Didak threats)
Rd 6 v Blues - 3 (BOG in thumping)
Rd 7 v North - 3 (38 touches - Shaw/Didak/Sidebottom threats)
Rd 8 v Freo - 1 (Cloke 3 Sandilands 2)
Rd 11 v Dogs - 2 (35 touches and a goal.. given Boyd the 3 in a loss.. Pendlebury/Didak/Davis thereabouts)
Rd 12 v Dees - 3 (might go to a Melb player but he did have 38 touches)
Rd 13 v Sydney - 2 (optimistic)
Rd 14 v Eagles - 3 (38 touches 2 goals)
Rd 15 v Port - 3 (39 touches, Pendlebury threat)
Rd 16 v Saints - 3 (was at this one - easily BOG for mine)
Rd 17 v Tigers - 3 (37 touches, Didak might edge him)
Rd 18 v Blues - 3 (Pendlebury might get this one)
Rd 19 v Cats - 2 (Didak 3)
Rd 20 v Essendon - 2 (Cloke 3, Pendlebury??)
Rd 22 v Hawthorn - 1 (in a loss)

That's a very optimistic view of the voting (39 votes and 10 BOGs !!) but Swan has consistently been named as first best this year, did poll well a couple of years back when he was leading but not invited so I am not putting it past him to break Banger's record. I think it is a matter of whether he gets all those BOGs or is given the token 2 or 1 for a high possession game and the three votes go to Pendlebury/Didak etc. I can't say I feel absolutely sure that he will get BOG in any of those games.

Certainly 31 or more votes paying $7 seems like value to me.

Wow 39. The umpires expect Swan to get 35 touches a game. He wont poll that many

I like em

Reckon Chapman will get it ahead of Franklin. Winner of Group 4 will come from Brown/Dal Santo. I've used Thompson/Watson as locks. Bock I'm about 75% confident of, and have got him in a few multis. Boyds a very good chance for Dogs.

Douglas will outpoll Bock IMO

 

[DT_35]

I feel you are basing your votes from SC and DT scores and averages. There is more to it than that. You also have Goddard in the 20s, I assume because he has a high SC and DT Average. Well.... SC and DT dont factor in how many times he threatens to kill the umpires during the game. Its the best and FAIREST.


Douglas will outpoll Bock IMO

I went to almost every St.Kilda game this year...Goddard was easily our best player, with Hayes trailing. When I go through the stats and look back at the games I remember who was good/bad etc. Goddard will out pole Hayes, the only thing stopping him is the umpires (of course) but if he didn't back chat etc, then he would defiantly, 100% have Hayes covered.


And I meant Boak* my bad

 

[rsulfa]

Hi gents,

This thread has gone on for an unbelievable amount of time, a real credit to the contributors, nice work...had a couple of questions really.

1) I know there are alot of Pendles supporters around, but honestly, do you really give him any sort of chance over Swan? I think everyone is glossing over the fact that Swan has won every bloody award out there this year from differing audiences & perspectives on the game so why would it not logically carry over into the brownlow?

2) Put this crazy multi together, wondering what you guys think? Yeh it's a bit of a long shot, but why not I say!
Leg 1: A. Goodes Team Votes
Leg 2: J. Brown Team Votes
Leg 3: J. Watson Team Votes
Leg 4: B. Green Team Votes
Leg 5: S. Thompson Team Votes
Leg 6: L. Hodge Team Votes
Leg 7: B. Goddard Team Votes
Leg 8: M. Lecras Team Votes
Leg 9: D. Swan 29 or more votes
Leg 10: J. Selwood H2H over Harvey

Combined odds of $782 @ $20 = ))

Thoughts? Cheers guys, and good luck to all the Swan backers!!! May the Swanwick campaign prove fruitful!

 

[Rippo]

IMO take LaCras out all together and replace with Boak then do the same bet again to cover Hayes in one over Goddard then the same with Sylvia over Green and one other with with Goddard and Sylvia.

Goddard/Green
Goddard/Sylvia
Hayes/Green
Hayes/Sylvia

then you are looking a whole lot better

 

[s1bbald]

IMO take LaCras out all together and replace with Boak then do the same bet again to cover Hayes in one over Goddard then the same with Sylvia over Green and one other with with Goddard and Sylvia.

Goddard/Green
Goddard/Sylvia
Hayes/Green
Hayes/Sylvia

then you are looking a whole lot better

What he said. Good post, Rippo.

 

[premiers06]

What he said. Good post, Rippo.

Agreed not too shabby of a bet

 

[rsulfa]

Cheers mate.....yeh, was thinking boak, do you reckon that LeCras is a chance though? I know everyone talks about Priddis, but personally, I think LeCras had a cracker year and will get a few votes...Cheers.

 

[Rippo]

Heres an example of 2 bets i have put on at big odds that actually look very good i think and in its chances to actually get up...BUT it really relies on one thing i think and that is that the bald madmen wins the BL over Swan! as i really do think its either Ablett or Swans meddle. The rest i am very confident in.

Groups: Ablett/Hayes/Dal Santo/ Most team votes: Thompson/Watson/Green/Boak/J Voldt
2975-1 $20

Groups: Ablett/Hayes/Dal Santo/ Most team votes: Thompson/Watson/Sylvia/Boak/J Voldt
3967-1 $20

 

[Rippo]

Cheers mate.....yeh, was thinking boak, do you reckon that LeCras is a chance though? I know everyone talks about Priddis, but personally, I think LeCras had a cracker year and will get a few votes...Cheers.

i don't really think LeCras is a chance at all, Boak is more of a chance than him and imo the last 2 rds sealed the deal for him... when ya go long legs put in the best chances in order and LeCras falls out of the 10 legs with this thinking but Boak is def in there.
You will win big anyway so i wouldn't pick Lecras for the extra multiple he offers over Boak.

Good luck.

 

[weagles_fan]

Heres an example of 2 bets i have put on at big odds that actually look very good i think and in its chances to actually get up...BUT it really relies on one thing i think and that is that the bald madmen wins the BL over Swan! as i really do think its either Ablett or Swans meddle. The rest i am very confident in.

Groups: Ablett/Hayes/Dal Santo/ Most team votes: Thompson/Watson/Green/Boak/J Voldt
2975-1 $20

Groups: Ablett/Hayes/Dal Santo/ Most team votes: Thompson/Watson/Sylvia/Boak/J Voldt
3967-1 $20

I like those bets however it really will come down to luck. Swan could easily beat Ablett, Goddard could easily beat Hayes and Mitchell could beat Dal Santo. I think your team votes are pretty safe other than maybe Riewoldt who could be beaten by Deledio.

 

[Rippo]

I like those bets however it really will come down to luck. Swan could easily beat Ablett, Goddard could easily beat Hayes and Mitchell could beat Dal Santo. I think your team votes are pretty safe other than maybe Riewoldt who could be beaten by Deledio.

yeah i totally agree with you!

When i say it comes down to A or S i mean thats my biggest worry but yeah other things could happen to wreck it, i have about another 45 multis on too. This was the only 2 were i had Ablett in it and i have Swan in none!

The biggest thing in a whole that will screw me is Goddard over hayes as in all multis i have worked around 7 anchors Big Risk big reward

 

[Dunn - Well Done]

I think Sandilands and Barlow should be added to any mutli right now, Barlow a very good chance to get up and its a two horse race. I would be very suprised to see Pavlich get up or get close, just wont happen.

Riewoldt also looks a pretty good thing.

 

[TheNextBigThing]

I think Goddard beating Hayes will screw a few of us over

 

[maxlad]

yeah goddard will end up with under15 and hayes >20 dw lenny has this

 

[DT_35]

yeah goddard will end up with under15 and hayes >20 dw lenny has this

haha um...no other way around.

 

[Frankie23]

I'm pretty confident with Hayes > Goddard, and at 2.75 you can't ignore the value! I've used Hayes in nearly 50% of my multi's, with a littl cover from Goddard.

Anyone who is doubting Hayes, don't. He is a proven vote getter and has had a huge year, get on him.

 

[buddymania]

H2H3-judd/H2H4-hayes/G4- brown, dal, mitchell/G3- chappy, jack Most Team- watson,thompson

Have 30 on each with a payout of between 1200- 4500. Not as big collect as others but cant see any of it getting rolled. (Goddard to poll out of his skin and beat judd my only worry.)

Also did a Most Team vote- Ablett, Hodge, Boyd, Port Any other player, Green/Sylvia

Think Rodan will get the chocolates at port tbh so at 21 put a small nibble on these two with a 1500 collect.

Also put some of judd for top 5 to cover my bets if i lose.

And finally a while back i got some on pav for most freo votes when his odds were unbelievable into a few main anchors with a 4K collect. Dont expect it to get up but heres to hoping he steals barlows votes early on

Now just have to wait till monday to roll around. Good luck guys

 

[buddymania]

I think Goddard beating Hayes will screw a few of us over

Yes no BJ's for BJ if this happens

 

[Rippo]

H2H3-judd/H2H4-hayes/G4- brown, dal, mitchell/G3- chappy, jack Most Team- watson,thompson

Have 30 on each with a payout of between 1200- 4500. Not as big collect as others but cant see any of it getting rolled. (Goddard to poll out of his skin and beat judd my only worry.)

Also did a Most Team vote- Ablett, Hodge, Boyd, Port Any other player, Green/Sylvia

Think Rodan will get the chocolates at port tbh so at 21 put a small nibble on these two with a 1500 collect.

Also put some of judd for top 5 to cover my bets if i lose.

And finally a while back i got some on pav for most freo votes when his odds were unbelievable into a few main anchors with a 4K collect. Dont expect it to get up but heres to hoping he steals barlows votes early on

Now just have to wait till monday to roll around. Good luck guys

If Boak didn't have the last 2 rds he had then Roden mayyyybe but now not a chance imo, Roden is prob on about 6 and Boak will be 10 or above

 

[buddymania]

IMO take LaCras out all together and replace with Boak then do the same bet again to cover Hayes in one over Goddard then the same with Sylvia over Green and one other with with Goddard and Sylvia.

Goddard/Green
Goddard/Sylvia
Hayes/Green
Hayes/Sylvia

then you are looking a whole lot better

I'd also be worried about the selwood H2H with harvey. Think that one could go either way tbh and at only 1.87 not worth the risk. I would prefer hayes H2H over goodes

 

[buddymania]

If Boak didn't have the last 2 rds he had then Roden mayyyybe but now not a chance imo, Roden is prob on about 6 and Boak will be 10 or above

Yeh i guess its boaks but he only needs to miss 1 of the BOG and its pretty even. Rodan polls pretty well and @ 21, i thought i may aswell chuck a 5er on just for fun.

 

[Rippo]

Yeh i guess its boaks but he only needs to miss 1 of the BOG and its pretty even. Rodan polls pretty well and @ 21, i thought i may aswell chuck a 5er on just for fun.

For Shizzle, good luck

 

[s1bbald]

Centrebet just sent me a freebet. Should send it back in exchange for multis again next year. What is it with Centrebet wanting to give me money around Brownlow time!?