AFL 2023 AFL Finals - Week 3

[balmainforever]

 

[balmainforever]

 

[Bic]

I’m sure Melbourne fans don’t need this right now.

 

[Suncraze]

Arsenal Win/ Bris ML $2.10 2u

 

[balmainforever]

I’m sure Melbourne fans don’t need this right now.

cut and paste was about as good as Melbourne's kicking for goal

 

[Suncraze]

Arsenal Win/ Bris ML $2.10 2u

Just the Lions to come now

 

[Checkered]

I’m bias but Lions -19.5 seems generous and I’m all over it

 

[X_box_X]

I'm hunting for the best possible odds for Brisbane to score 100+ and the other three prelim finalists to all score below 100.

Does anyone know if any books offer a 'teams to score 100' market?

I.e.
Game 1: Neither
Game 2: Brisbane only

 

[sohohoho]

closest is TABs to score 90 market, the betmakers SGM options don't let you do it

 

[X_box_X]

I might see if I can hit SB / TAB up to include it in their "what are the odds" special. That way Betfair will also have it to increase my chance of getting the odds I desire.

 

[kickazz]

I’m bias but Lions -19.5 seems generous and I’m all over it

Yeah good chance of a blowout, for sure.

But if it's a competitive game I'd be wary - even a solid 5 or so goal lead can come in a bit in prelims as the winning side's mind turns to next week and they ease it up a bit.

 

[kickazz]

Liking GWS at the line. Not convinced about Collingwood at all but time again have the habit of doing just enough to win.

 

[GROTTO]

Preliminary Fun Facts with Grotto

Since 2000, only three sides (Dogs twice, GWS) have made the Grand Final from outside of the Top 4.

 

[kickazz]

Preliminary Fun Facts with Grotto

Since 2000, only three sides (Dogs twice, GWS) have made the Grand Final from outside of the Top 4.

Most of those times they don't even make a Prelim. What's the overall record once a 5-8 makes a Prelim?

 

[kickazz]

Just checked - 10 times (since 2000, not including this year) a 5-8 side has made a Prelim; on three occasions (as GROTTO mentions) they have won through to the Grand final.

So if we allow ourselves to be very reductive on go on those numbers alone, it's basically a 50/50 chance that either Carlton or GWS (or both) win through.

(This year the markets have this a slightly more likely chance at about 56.5%)


EDIT:

If you only take stats since the pre-finals bye was brought in, (if you think that might negatively affect week 1 winners) then it turns out 5-8 Prelim finalists are more likely to win their Prelim than lose it. But the sample size is very small - 3 of 5.

Make of it what you will.

 

[Long Shot Louie]

It’s a straightforward move this week Lads.

This Finals series is Unfolding beautifully and this week we have been given another dream matchup.

I have written at length about the virtues of this amazing GWS side for several months now and it amazes me that the books never wake up.
The Giants truly are the gift that keeps on giving in season 2023.

The Giants, playing their brand of “Total Football”, will easily overcome the very limited Pies outfit this week and move on to another highly profitable matchup in the Grand Final.

THE GIANTS H2H@$2.50 ARE THE LONG SHOT LOUIE LOCK OF THE WEEK.

10 Units

 

[mozz23]

Highest scoring game - bl/Carl $1.95 lads
Highest scoring team of round - BL $2.40 lads

 

[Angus Young]

It’s a straightforward move this week Lads.

It's never straight forward.

 

[toenail11]

SB Free hit

2 - Greene,mihocek
Ags - hill,daniels,elliott
25+ coniglio,Whitfield

@7.50

 

[burge13]

Did my nuts on last weeks games. Still defies any logic the dees lost (so much wrong with that last 2 mins in particular) but thems the breaks. Wont be betting but if i was I would smash Brisbane, their line, goalscorers, anything to do with them winning. Therefore my brethren, please bet Carlton to save your own pennies. The king jinx is telling you what he'd play so you dont have to!

 

[NonPhixion]

Pies 1Q -2.5 $1.93 SB

Easy money

 

[Long Shot Louie]

It's never straight forward.

Well, it is for Louie this week Brother.

Very overrated Side meets the side that has no weakness and makes me bank every week. I truly don’t know how the Giants keep going into games as dogs, it is like a glitch in the universe.

GWS are stronger on every line and play a more complete and adaptable brand of football.

The Pies lost the I50 count 37-69 against the Dees and only fell over the line due to degenerate Goody rolling with what was quite possibly the second dumbest display of tactics we have seen in the history of western civilisation. The Giants aren’t going to just bomb the ball inside the forward line every time and they have multiple elite forwards.


On another note, where are the farken goal trains this week lads?

Hogan could be the one for mine. The best key forward in the comp at the present time and good clunking conditions in Melbourne today.
Darcy Moore also struggles big time against proper key forwards, giving up bags of 5+ to Walker, Lynch, Cameron, Larkey and Curnow in the last year and a bit.

 

[NYRB]

Under 164.5 points between Collingwood and Giants at a Pick'Em price.

Plenty of stakes on the line and both teams pretty solid defensively. Feel like the style of game will be similar to the 2018 and 2019 finals played between the two sides.

Feel like Most Disposals for Group B about right

Ash
Pendlebury
Himmelberg
Crisp
Ward
Sidebottom
Callaghan
Maynard

I favour Ash or Pendlebury to win that Group.

 

[NYRB]

Three plays on First Goalscorer in the Prelim Final:

Brent Daniels

16

Brent Daniels

Age

25

Ht

172cm

Wt

75kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.9

3star

K

6.4

3star

HB

6.5

4star

M

2.6

3star

T

2.9

4star

G

0.4

3star

D

10.3

3star

K

4.3

2star

HB

6.0

3star

M

1.9

2star

T

1.9

3star

G

0.0

1star

D

9.0

3star

K

3.6

2star

HB

5.4

4star

M

1.6

2star

T

3.0

5star

G

0.8

4star

@ $24
Beau McCreery @ $28
Toby Bedford

14

Toby Bedford

Age

23

Ht

179cm

Wt

75kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

8.0

2star

K

2.0

1star

HB

6.0

4star

M

1.0

1star

T

2.0

4star

G

0.0

1star

D

8.0

2star

K

2.0

1star

HB

6.0

3star

M

1.0

1star

T

2.0

3star

G

0.0

1star

D

8.0

2star

K

2.0

1star

HB

6.0

4star

M

1.0

1star

T

2.0

4star

G

0.0

1star

@ $30

Toby Greene

4

Toby Greene

Age

30

Ht

182cm

Wt

85kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

22.7

5star

K

12.5

5star

HB

10.2

5star

M

4.8

5star

T

3.0

5star

G

1.2

4star

D

17.5

4star

K

9.5

4star

HB

8.0

4star

M

4.8

4star

T

1.0

2star

G

2.3

5star

D

26.6

5star

K

12.4

5star

HB

14.2

5star

M

4.8

5star

T

3.6

5star

G

0.0

1star

is a good football player but he should be around double digits to Kick 1st goal in this game. Seeing 8.50 at TAB/Sportsbet.

 

[Atavistic]

Well, it is for Louie this week Brother.

Very overrated Side meets the side that has no weakness and makes me bank every week.

They have Keeffe in their team.