Your passport has been cancelled. The immigration department decided WE NEED SQUIGGLE. Otherwise we might read Roby's insight and analysis.
Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines
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Dirty Bird
Pokémon Master
please please please do an EPL one.
- May 4, 2013
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"As it should be"
There is more chance of St Kilda winning the flag this year than that final been played at Skilled
- May 4, 2013
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I don't think it does. From memory the algorithm calculates it as neutral as the interstate team usually over performs.Does grand final include home ground advantage?
If not
cryptor
Brownlow Medallist
- May 11, 2008
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I don't think he had actually implemented that. Simply highlighted it as a quirk.
threenewpadlocks
Brownlow Medallist
Squiggle tips GWS against Collingwood - would not have picked that two months ago!
Woah! Did Roby infect the squiggle?
threenewpadlocks
Brownlow Medallist
Looks at the Squiggle
Still sees Melbourne at the bottom.
No, no he has not.
Mr Dribble Kick
Debutant
- Jun 11, 2014
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Hawthorn sitting comfortably around past premiers, Sydney looking OK as well, Freo and Geelong slightly off the pace... Just need a couple of good weeks in September and prove the squiggle wrong!
- Aug 18, 2009
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The squiggle predictor does award home advantage for all matches involving teams from different states, including the Grand Final if applicable.
Right now it is predicting a GF of Sydney 78 - 86 Hawthorn, after awarding Hawthorn a home state advantage.
Whether it's appropriate to award home state advantage in this case is a good question, since over the last 20 years, there isn't much evidence for it. That is, non-Victorian teams have tended to perform better in Grand Finals than the squiggle expected.
If played in a neutral venue, the squiggle would be tipping Sydney 84 - 80 Hawthorn.
The bug that I did fix earlier was where the squiggle would erroneously award home ground advantage to a team in the Grand Final when both clubs were non-Victorian.
- Aug 18, 2009
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Round 21, 2014
Collingwood hath greatly displeased the squiggle, plummeting after its shellacking at home at the hands of Brisbane. The squiggle doesn't consider injuries, so if you think that was a good excuse, the Pies may not be this bad... although even so they'd surely still be a long way behind fellow top-8 contenders like West Coast, Essendon, and Richmond, and probably still behind a rejuvenated Carlton.
The Pies are now worst for position compared to the start of the season, just a bit worse than St Kilda.
Collingwood and Brisbane are now in almost the same spot, which is kind of fitting since as Collingwood's season has fallen apart, Brisbane's has improved. Mid-year, they were miles apart.
As usual, not a whole lot of movement for our top 4. The squiggle expected Freo to win on home state advantage, even though it thinks the Hawks are better, so there's still a gap between the top 2 (Hawks & Swans) and everyone else.
GWS get a big boost from holding Melbourne to three goals (at the G), but Melbourne's offence was already so terrible that a single game can't damage it much. I think this is Melbourne's 4th 30-something score this season, to go with their 28 against the Pies. Their attack is now about 10 squiggle points worse than any other team, which is abysmal.
Also it was kind of funny this week to see the Eagles' loss to Essendon written up as "season-ending" and then a day later they were favourites to make 8th again. What a great season this is.
- Aug 18, 2009
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There is a chart you might find useful at the bottom of this post on priority picks. Melbourne's sub-40 offence is worse than all of them, but its defence is a lot better.
On balance, the Dees right now are in the worst 10 or so teams of the last 20 years, but significantly better than they were last year, and GWS 2012 & 2013, and Fitzroy 1996. They're about the same as Port Adelaide at the end of 2011.
Excluding GWS, the last time a team charted below 40 for offence was 1968 (North Melbourne).
Millky95
Starchild > You
How does the squiggle go for games in Tassie? North and Hawks get homeground?
cryptor
Brownlow Medallist
- May 11, 2008
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Squiggle correctly tips 23 point winning margin to Hawthorn over Geelong.
We are not worthy...
We are not worthy...
- Aug 18, 2009
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Right.
An algorithm that only awards home state advantage when the home team is playing in its own state doesn't reliably tip better. So far this year that algorithm is on the same number of tips as ISTATE-91:12, i.e. 129, although with a slightly better error margin.* For whatever reason, teams that shift their home games to a neutral state tend to perform just as well as if they'd played at home.
With the squiggle this year I wanted to show how a really simple model could be surprisingly accurate, even though it ignored a lot of factors that we'd normally consider important. So I went for the simplest algorithm that did a pretty good job of tipping. But next year I may make it a little more complex, since people seem interested in more accuracy over more simplicity, and since it can be counter-intuitive when the squiggle does things like award home state advantage to North playing in Tassie.
* E.g. both algorithms tipped North to beat Adelaide, which they did by 9 points, but ISTATE-91:12 tipped North by 19 points, while the algorithm that didn't award home state advantage tipped North by 7.
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- May 8, 2006
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The Squiggle is King...long live the Squiggle.
- Apr 16, 2009
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i don't think it's counter-intuitive to award home advantage to a team like north in tassie, particularly in the future when their association with the ground will have been in place for a number of years.
sure they have to travel, but so do their opponents. the players are more familiar with the ground and the routine than their opponents, and the crowd is mostly in their favour. sounds like a logical home ground advantage to me.
- Aug 18, 2009
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Round 22, 2014
Interactive squiggles!
Since it's late in the season and there are SQUIGGLY LINES EVERYWHERE, I have tried to clean up the chart a little.
North is hidden behind Geelong and Port at the moment.
Here is a version that draws a straight line from a team's starting position before Round 1 and now:
From pre-season to Round 22:
On thing this highlights is how much ground GWS and Melbourne have made up over the course of the year. They are still bad (especially Melbourne), but there is no longer an enormous gap between those two teams and everyone else. We are getting back to something resembling a normal competition, where the worst teams are at least competitive.
Sydney's year is amazing. That's a very large gain, shifting into very impressive territory.
But it's hard to ignore all those premiership cups around Hawthorn. The Hawks have moved to their flag-winning position of 2013 like it's magnetic.
- Feb 9, 2011
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Thx!!!!!Round 22, 2014
Interactive squiggles!
Since it's late in the season and there are SQUIGGLY LINES EVERYWHERE, I have tried to clean up the chart a little.
North is hidden behind Geelong and Port at the moment.
Here is a version that draws a straight line from a team's starting position before Round 1 and now:
From pre-season to Round 22:
On thing this highlights is how much ground GWS and Melbourne have made up over the course of the year. They are still bad (especially Melbourne), but there is no longer an enormous gap between those two teams and everyone else. We are getting back to something resembling a normal competition, where the worst teams are at least competitive.
Sydney's year is amazing. That's a very large gain, shifting into very impressive territory.
But it's hard to ignore all those premiership cups around Hawthorn. The Hawks have moved to their flag-winning position of 2013 like it's magnetic.
I looks like the Port line moves slightly up and hard left.
Is the other line (slightly down and hard left Geelong's or North's?) Where is the third line? Sorry if it's obvious.
Just had a second or third look and it looks like the Geelong line is a shorter version of the North line.
- Aug 18, 2009
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There's a legend on the upper left, which maybe helps.Thx!!!!!
I looks like the Port line moves slightly up and hard left.
Is the other line (slightly down and hard left Geelong's or North's?) Where is the third line? Sorry if it's obvious.
Just had a second or third look and it looks like the Geelong line is a shorter version of the North line.
North (blue line) have moved down and right (mostly right).
Geelong (dotted blue line) have done the same thing, but less so.
Port (teal line) have surged up and right.
