Scottish Independance

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LennyStarkiller

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Aug 28, 2014
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http://www.theage.com.au/world/scotlands-future-up-to-the-undecided-20140917-3fzb3.html
New opinion polls are still coming in, but the tightness of the vote and the smallness of their sample sizes mean each one's margin of error is greater than the difference between the Yes and No camps.

The election is now in the hands of the undecided, up to a sixth of the eligible voters, and disproportionately women.
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I have no idea which way the vote will go but it will be interesting to see how it plays out.
I think alot of Scots would like to give England a big F U but I can see the economic reasons for people wanting to stay.
How do other people see which way the vote will go?
 
I suspect "No" will win, it had a slight lead and undecided voters tend to favour the status quo.

I'm not an avid follower of UK politics, but I'd think David Cameron's job would be in jeopardy if the Scots break away.
 
Hank Scorpion said:
I suspect "No" will win, it had a slight lead and undecided voters tend to favour the status quo.

I'm not an avid follower of UK politics, but I'd think David Cameron's job would be in jeopardy if the Scots break away.
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I also think that David Cameron would have to step down. If Scotland does decide to be independant then atleast the Tories would have an easier time in elections seeings though Scotland only usually vote for Labour, Liberal Democrats or Scottish National Party.
 

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If it were 18+ age voting, they wouldn't be independent. However adding all the 16 and 17 year olds, I suspect they will think it's "cool" to leave to UK, and that will get them over the line.
 
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Hoping for Scottish Independence - would put serious pressure on Australia to change our hugely out-dated flag.
 
Crawb said:
Hoping for Scottish Independence - would put serious pressure on Australia to change our hugely out-dated flag.
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The government would probably come out and say that the flag will stay the same for historical reasons. I can see Abbott saying something like "The Union Jack was the flag raised when the British settled in Australia and thats the flag design that will stay in the corner of our flag" or some bullshit like that.
 
If the Yes vote wins there are very many major transition issues (including tax, military and other govt departments and policies etc) and obviously carve up of certain UK assets/debts (CB reserves and debts included) - obviously Scotland gets its North Sea revenues (which are diminishing) which will certainly help them for the next generation. Like many Western countries they have some serious aging demographic problems. Possible they will also lose some businesses including serious big financial head offices - not sure on the total repercussions of that (place incorporation, taxes etc etc) but they will probably also gain others that will have to incorporate and operate there rather than from just England as now to be involved in their economy. UK or Scottish pound and not being part of the EU (at least initially) are other problems. Remember Ireland broke away from UK early last century and continued using the pound and are doing probably far better economically (and obviously religious/cultural stability) than they would have if it had not happened. There is always a possibility they could reneg on any debt "inherited". If it's Yes they absolutely must get their economic management right going forward, then they may be long term winners but will definitely suffer some major hardship in the coming years with a Yes decision.
 
I can't see the yes vote getting up, whilst the polls have narrowed, as the OP quote the sample sizes are alarmingly small and the undecided count is quite high meaning that the validity of the polls needs to be seriously questioned. I also would like to know where the polls are taken. I strongly suspect that they are taken from Edinburgh & Glasgow only. Edinburgh is the heart of the independence movement, Glasgow would have some strong support in regions but the majority would want to remain loyal to the crown, rural and regional Scotland would almost certainly be a NO vote, just as regional Australia was a massive no vote for the republic.

I really fail to see any benefit in this for Scotland, I lived there for close enough to 2 years and can't see any physical upside to it. The one thing the vote will do is when NO wins it will kill off the debate once and for all, just have a look at the Australian Republican movement and where they are now 15 years on.
 
Slax said:
I can't see the yes vote getting up, whilst the polls have narrowed, as the OP quote the sample sizes are alarmingly small and the undecided count is quite high meaning that the validity of the polls needs to be seriously questioned. I also would like to know where the polls are taken. I strongly suspect that they are taken from Edinburgh & Glasgow only. Edinburgh is the heart of the independence movement, Glasgow would have some strong support in regions but the majority would want to remain loyal to the crown, rural and regional Scotland would almost certainly be a NO vote, just as regional Australia was a massive no vote for the republic.

I really fail to see any benefit in this for Scotland, I lived there for close enough to 2 years and can't see any physical upside to it. The one thing the vote will do is when NO wins it will kill off the debate once and for all, just have a look at the Australian Republican movement and where they are now 15 years on.
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I actually can't for the life of me work out why they don't get out now they have the chance. This article sums it up perfectly:

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/02/scots-independence-england-scotland
 
Hank Scorpion said:
I suspect "No" will win, it had a slight lead and undecided voters tend to favour the status quo.

I'm not an avid follower of UK politics, but I'd think David Cameron's job would be in jeopardy if the Scots break away.
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Im sure I read that it would actually help him.

I had no idea 16 and 17 year olds could vote in this, who came up with that bright idea?

Edit: Labour's tight lead in current UK-wide polls suggests Miliband would find it impossible to form either a minority government, or one in coalition with the Lib Dems, without the support of Scottish MPs. Well over 10% (41) of the 258 seats Labour won at the last election are Scottish.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...stpone-uk-general-election-scots-independence
 
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These sorts of things tend to need real popular support to get up- people get cold feet, they sit on the fence in order to avoid conflict etc.

I understand the romanticism behind it, but nationalism is never a good reason for doing anything. I'm quite sure my Scottish ancestors would roll in their graves.
camsmith said:
Im sure I read that it would actually help him.

I had no idea 16 and 17 year olds could vote in this, who came up with that bright idea?

Edit: Labour's tight lead in current UK-wide polls suggests Miliband would find it impossible to form either a minority government, or one in coalition with the Lib Dems, without the support of Scottish MPs. Well over 10% (41) of the 258 seats Labour won at the last election are Scottish.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...stpone-uk-general-election-scots-independence
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He's ****ed either way. If it's yes, he's responsible for the breakup of the union. If it's no, Labour voters will have saved the union(and the Labour Party will jump on that).
 
I'd love to see a Yes victory, just to see what would happen in Scotland and in England. Would be total mayhem, anarchy on both sides. Pretty sure the No campaign will get up though.

Cameron is on record as saying he wouldn't step down if Yes got up - could he be pressured into it by his own supporters in the event Yes wins? How ballsy is he?
 
Would also love to see a Yes vote purely for the epic tears you would get from the English but I can't see it happening.

Polls trending back towards no after a brief Yes spike a week ago - a lot undecided (tend to go for the status quo as suggested above) - I think the No's will have it fairly comfortably in the end.

FWIW betting markets (generally quite accurate at predicting elections) leaning towards 80% No; 20% yes.
 
Looks like its going to be a no. Would be interesting to know how much of this fear campaign by Westminster is complete bullshit. Really need to look in to it more.
I was hoping Scotland would break free for purely sentimental reasons. But as I said need to look into it more, but I do suspect quite a bit of fear mongering by Westminster. They have a lot to lose.
 
camsmith said:
I had no idea 16 and 17 year olds could vote in this, who came up with that bright idea?
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I have absolutely no problem with letting 16 & 17 year-old vote, after all they let older people with degenerative conditions like Alzheimer's or dementia vote, so why not a 16 year-old. Chances are they will be more open to listening to the debate and generating a balanced view than someone over 50 who has voted the same way all their life and will vote the way their party tells them, Tory No, SNP Yes.
 
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