sonnywalters
Cancelled
Who are we mortals to question the mystery, wonder and wisdom of Lord Squiggle!
Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines
- Thread starter Final Siren
- Start date
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Who are we mortals to question the mystery, wonder and wisdom of Lord Squiggle!
- Banned
- #2,577
Squiggle has us winning the flag omgomgomgomg
crazywildhorse
Brownlow Medallist
They will if Lance Franklin gets a long term injury.
3 premiers in 3 weeks!
- Apr 28, 2008
- 11,388
- 8,333
- AFL Club
- West Coast
- Other Teams
- Arsenal Kilmarnock
To be fair to WCE, they rarely get smashed by good teams (even if they don't really look like winning), and their only losses this year were 1-2 goals against Bulldogs and 5 goals to Freo, who are both in hot form. Keeping any team to 1 goal after quarter time is also pretty commendable, even if GWS is a lower-middle table side that is still struggling with long road trips as many newish clubs have.
Still, a semi final win over Port Adelaide...and given our injuries...flol. If only!
Still, a semi final win over Port Adelaide...and given our injuries...flol. If only!
Janus
Advocatus Diaboli
- Sep 9, 2007
- 23,364
- 57,162
- AFL Club
- Port Adelaide
- Other Teams
- Dallas Cowboys, Chicago Bulls
This week the squiggle should start correcting itself when it comes to Port Adelaide. Only beating West Coast by 14 points at home with a 12 point head start thanks to interstate weighting? Will get on West Coast for top four with the squiggle if it happens.
Spoken4
Norm Smith Medallist
I'm a little confused FinalSiren. Projected year end ladder shows Freo with 4 losses but I can only see 2 in the projections for each round (away against Hawthorn and Port).
- Sep 10, 2006
- 19,776
- 19,593
- AFL Club
- Sydney
- Other Teams
- Liverpool FC
From memory I don't think the projected ladder is based on the week by week predictions. it's explained somewhere in this massive thread if you care to look.
- Aug 18, 2009
- 4,229
- 17,495
- AFL Club
- Richmond
- Thread starter
- #2,584
The "recent form" refers to now, because the squiggle doesn't predict anyone's form to change. It simply generates results from everyone's current positions.
So yes, the GF tip will flip around a lot depending on who's had a good week. It will really only become meaningful as a tip after the prelims.
- Apr 28, 2008
- 11,388
- 8,333
- AFL Club
- West Coast
- Other Teams
- Arsenal Kilmarnock
Port is a bit of a bogey side for West Coast. I don't recall ever beating Port in SA when they have been a quality top 8 side, and they beat us at home more often than not as well.
- Aug 18, 2009
- 4,229
- 17,495
- AFL Club
- Richmond
- Thread starter
- #2,587
It works by round the Win % each week, but doesn't look back on 100% results.
It gives us a loss by the time we hit North in round 8 because it rounds down 7.4 wins to 7-1 but the week before it rounds up 6.6 wins to 7.
If we keep winning until then, the 84% chance of winning that game then won't give us a loss.
Spoken4
Norm Smith Medallist
Thanks
Spoken4
Norm Smith Medallist
Thanks Seppo
cryptor
Brownlow Medallist
- May 11, 2008
- 23,526
- 58,925
- AFL Club
- Hawthorn
This thread could do with a FAQ section in the OP.
In fact, I move that the Squiggle be given it's very own board.
In fact, I move that the Squiggle be given it's very own board.
There a phenomena you could describe as the mid table bungee.
Clubs which never fall away, but dont spend long in the top six either. Adelaide, west coast, North ar the archetypical clubs. There a bungee rope round them which is anchored mid table.
THey tend to have very even lists, with a close to ideal spread across both age groups and player types. This probably doesnt leave much salary cap room for superstars
Clubs which never fall away, but dont spend long in the top six either. Adelaide, west coast, North ar the archetypical clubs. There a bungee rope round them which is anchored mid table.
THey tend to have very even lists, with a close to ideal spread across both age groups and player types. This probably doesnt leave much salary cap room for superstars
Squiggle tells me the results of the home and away games tween hawthorn and sydney will go along wy to decie who comes second and potentially hosts the other in a QF.
Given they play in three weeks the potential suspension for hodge and or lewis on top of potential non retrns of lake and frawley will have a big bearing on our season
Given they play in three weeks the potential suspension for hodge and or lewis on top of potential non retrns of lake and frawley will have a big bearing on our season
- Aug 18, 2009
- 4,229
- 17,495
- AFL Club
- Richmond
- Thread starter
- #2,594
Round 5, 2015
Animated!
Good week for: the flat track bullies, West Coast. The squiggle loves the Eagles because they keep demolishing the sides they beat and staying competitive in games they lose. It values every single point they score, and every point they prevent their opponents from scoring, whereas regular human punters probably don't care very much whether a good team beats a poor one by 8 goals or 12: either way, we would just mark that down as a thumping.
So you might write this one off as squiggle bias. But there's a lot to like about the Eagles, who are now 7-3 from their last 10 games with an average winning margin of 60 points and an average losing margin of 14 points. Their narrow Round 1 loss to the Bulldogs at Docklands looks credible in retrospect, and in GWS this week they annihilated a solid mid-tier opponent.
The Eagles' fixture is generous, which means they only need to keep smashing the bottom half of the ladder to make finals. Their percentage will help hoist them to the top of their bracket. For all their injury woes, they had a horrible run last year as well and still only just missed the Eight. And their upside is pretty huge: turn one or two of these closes losses into a win and they'll look a lot more like a credible threat.
Also a good week for Collingwood, who have put together three great games, as well as the Bulldogs and Fremantle.
Bad week for: Sydney, who were overtaken by Fremantle, and can't afford to drop home games against anyone if they want a top two finish.
Also bad for Brisbane, again. They're now they only team not to have squiggled to a better position at least once this year.
All in all, an exciting week, and for the first time, the squiggle predictor ladder is looking quite a bit different to 2014:
The Falcon Strike
Hall of Famer
Just on WC Final Siren - my quick detective (Ron The Bear could probably confirm this) work showed that was our club's best defensive effort since we played Fitzroy in 1994.
This is reflected in the substantial squiggle movement to the right
I'd also suggest that our win on Saturday was less "flat-track" not only due to the opposiion, but that it wasn't on the back of piling on mega goals a has been our go to in the past, but rather as mentioned our defensive efforts.
This is reflected in the substantial squiggle movement to the right
I'd also suggest that our win on Saturday was less "flat-track" not only due to the opposiion, but that it wasn't on the back of piling on mega goals a has been our go to in the past, but rather as mentioned our defensive efforts.
at this stage I will take the five wins for the suns by year end...
- Apr 28, 2008
- 11,388
- 8,333
- AFL Club
- West Coast
- Other Teams
- Arsenal Kilmarnock
I think we might have kept Essendon to a lower score in early 1999, something around the 20s. It was early in the season, probably a round or two from when Matthew Lloyd had that big bag against the Swans.
The Falcon Strike
Hall of Famer
Indeed we did - it was 23.
Completely missed it. Though it does ruin my great stat which referenced Fitzroy
Round 5, 2015
Animated!
Good week for: the flat track bullies, West Coast. The squiggle loves the Eagles because they keep demolishing the sides they beat and staying competitive in games they lose. It values every single point they score, and every point they prevent their opponents from scoring, whereas regular human punters probably don't care very much whether a good team beats a poor one by 8 goals or 12: either way, we would just mark that down as a thumping.
So you might write this one off as squiggle bias. But there's a lot to like about the Eagles, who are now 7-3 from their last 10 games with an average winning margin of 60 points and an average losing margin of 14 points. Their narrow Round 1 loss to the Bulldogs at Docklands looks credible in retrospect, and in GWS this week they annihilated a solid mid-tier opponent.
The Eagles' fixture is generous, which means they only need to keep smashing the bottom half of the ladder to make finals. Their percentage will help hoist them to the top of their bracket. For all their injury woes, they had a horrible run last year as well and still only just missed the Eight. And their upside is pretty huge: turn one or two of these closes losses into a win and they'll look a lot more like a credible threat.
Also a good week for Collingwood, who have put together three great games, as well as the Bulldogs and Fremantle.
Bad week for: Sydney, who were overtaken by Fremantle, and can't afford to drop home games against anyone if they want a top two finish.
Also bad for Brisbane, again. They're now they only team not to have squiggled to a better position at least once this year.
All in all, an exciting week, and for the first time, the squiggle predictor ladder is looking quite a bit different to 2014:
We've only played one side out of the squiggle top 8 this year and are sitting 4-1. Exciting times. :seriousface:
