..... Me, not so much
Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines
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- Aug 18, 2009
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Poor West Coast. Last week they obliterate the team that this week knocks off the reigning premiers; meanwhile they beat a flag favorite at home... and still they can't get no respect.
- Aug 18, 2009
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Basically yes: the squiggle rates Hawthorn 1988 a little better than Geelong 2011.
1988 was a strong year, with only one team winning fewer than 7 games. In 2011, Brisbane, Port Adelaide, and Gold Coast could only manage 10 wins between them.
The 1988 wooden spooner, St Kilda, finished with a percentage of 82.1%, better than four 2011 teams.
In 1988, you needed 13 wins to make the finals (under a final 5 system); in 2011, three teams made it with fewer. Eighth spot required only 11.5 wins.
The '88 Hawks and '11 Cats both finished the home & away season in pretty much the same chart position, i.e. really high, and both with 19 wins. Hawthorn were 3.5 games clear on top of the ladder; Geelong were one win and percentage behind the Pies. They both had great finals series, with the Cats getting a lot of credit for beating Collingwood, a very good team. The Hawks only played two finals, but kept Carlton (3rd) to 45 points in the first, in a year the Blues averaged 106 points a game, winning by 21, and then destroying Melbourne (5th) by 96 points in the Grand Final, which set a new record at the time.
Some of the charts are pretty crazy, like that run in '87 when the Swans kicked 3 mammoth totals in consecutive weeks. They still have the 3rd highest AFL score and I think top 10 AFL winning margin. 2011 saw some absurd squiggle movements with Collingwood's massive win and keeping Port to nothing and then Geelong absolutely thrashing them in the last round of the season.
Would it be worth extending the premiership cup view to 30 years? I think it's a little misleading for the Squiggle to say that Geelong is the best team single team of all time when the Hawthorn team of '88 was arguably better and they dominated the 80s like North should have done in the 90s.
Looks like the tide has gone out with the Squiggles this week.
1985: Essendon charted in almost the same position as Geelong 2011
1986 & 1987: Hawthorn charted basically the same position
1988: Hawthorn biggest chart I could find
1989: Geelong - Um wtf? And Hawthorn. Ok, wow. How did Hawthorn win it that year? That chart, crazy stuff! Seriously, there's a round where Geelong goes from 62 defence to 88 defence in 1 game!!! Essendon beat West Coast by a ridiculous total, 160 to 18. Ahh how I long for the days when the opponents are so bad they can't even get a goal.
1990: If people think 2005 & 2012 are anomalies, they really ought to see the 1990 Collingwood team! It's almost 90 defence!
1992: Eagles almost the same as the Swans 2012
1993: Not a single club got near the sweet spot all year, like seriously no where near it, suggests a super-tight season
1994: Eagles won it being even more defensive than the Swans 2005, but no where near as crazy as Collingwood 1990!
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The Falcon Strike
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I think it takes somes time to change pre-conceptions... and that isn't just non-WC supporters either.
I'll reserve some judgement until the bye until we also play some other middling sides like Essendon, North, Richmond and Geelon
West coast is a bit of a strange team, often very hard to pick
Ocha905
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What's the 'Sweet spot' for winning a flag?
- Aug 18, 2009
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Round 6, 2015
Animated!
For a week of upsets, there wasn't a whole lot of squiggle movement. No-one went zooming off anywhere, at least. But every team moved a small amount.
The squiggle has been bullish on West Coast all year and this week made that look a little less silly.
Hawthorn are doing that thing where they chart in an incredibly precise area, looking quite 2013ish.
Good week for: Geelong! Things were looking grim for the Cats after Round 4, but two good games against low-to-mid table teams in Richmond and Collingwood have them moving in the right direction again. This is a little exaggerated, though, because the squiggle credits those as interstate wins, when in fact Geelong has long played well at the 'G and probably doesn't experience any disadvantage there.
One unusual thing about Geelong is how balanced they've been since late-2013, leaning neither to the attacking side or the defensive side of the chart. When they get better, they move directly up the diagonal; when they get worse, they move directly down it.
Bad week for: Honestly hard to say, because no-one's week was really that bad. Port will rue a missed opportunity to shore up its top four chances, but it was a close loss, and the squiggle already rated the Eagles a tough opponent, so they don't drift far. Similarly, the Hawks' loss to GWS will smart, but it was a narrow one, and the Giants aren't that bad. Richmond are in trouble, but already were. The Bulldogs should have won, but also should be able to recover.
Collingwood and Essendon were mediocre, but so were most of the teams around them (Tigers, Bulldogs, each other). Similarly, Carlton and Gold Coast slipped together, and not far enough to really change anything.
I'll say Richmond, for the second week in a row, because they make me so angry. But there's not much in it.
In the ladder predictor, there's no change in the order of the top 6 this week, and the bottom four is still the same four teams. Only Geelong moves more than two ladder rungs, climbing from 12th to 9th:
Interactive squiggle / FAQ / etc
SJ
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Interesting how bunched the teams are (except for Hawthorn).
cryptor
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In the cluster, so North-East of Geelong 2008 is the ripe spot to be in contention.
Freo losing 4 also seems unlikely
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It is a probability ladder guys. Not an actual win/loss ladder
- Aug 18, 2009
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Something I find cool about probability is how quickly unlikely events become likely if you get a few goes at it. There are 22 games in the regular season. If a team was so horrifically bad that they entered every single game as massive underdogs, 97% likely to lose (the squiggle's maximum), there's still a very solid chance they'll win at least one... 1 - (.97^22) = 49%.
This is why it's so rare for teams to go through a season with no wins (or undefeated).
Not really related, but a similarly counter-intuitive example of probability is the Birthday Problem. If you have 23 people in a room, what are the odds at least two share the same birthday? It feels like the answer would be pretty low, when in fact it's 50%. When I was younger I almost got punched at a party because a dude had discovered that two people there shared the same birthday and he thought that was a miracle and I said it wasn't. IT WASN'T.
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Couldn't get the formula n! / ((n-r)! * r!) out quick enough to placate them eh?
Is that the right formula?
I remember something closer to n! / ((n-r)! * n^r) ?
But I am old, and my mind is fading ... will go look it up to see if I need to up the medication.
Tas
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TheBrownDog
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That is because we are.
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Almost want to print and frame this before injuries inevitably halt our march. But then again we have the Saints and Gold Coast to come, so we might manage to be even better placed in a few weeks, who knows.
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I would be amazed if Eagles can pull off a top 8 finish this year. What a coaching performance that would be.
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So this season ends with Freo destroying WC by shooting an air tank wedged into their beak? All rejoice and we are awarded the cup.
Cuzdup
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Is good, well done
