Do Richmond have a chance to contend next year?

[BC9_]

OP lists Shaun Edwards as an A grader. Gave up reading after that point.

Yes they do have a chance to contend next year, but IMO they're no further ahead at the moment than they were in, say, 2012. There are still too many average and soft players in the best 22 who can't handle the step up to finals intensity, and I don't see much hope to believe that won't be the case again this year. If they win a final this year, then I'll start to rate them a little bit differently, but I don't see that happening at this point.

"Shaun Edwards"

Didn't read after that.

 

[simpsonwillo]

Richmond can definitely win the flag this year, their best is good enough. If Freo don't win it I hope Tiges do.

 

[MightyHawks]

Every premier over the last 40 years (with one exception) has won at least one final over the previous 3 seasons

On that basis, Richmond can't win the flag in 2015

If they are a chance for 2016 then they need to win a final this year

 

[Bulldocker]

It's about now - after getting all their fans hopes up for glory, that 2016 will bring the tigers back to normal expectations of the past........9th !!!

 

[Barry_Badrinath]

Every premier over the last 40 years (with one exception) has won at least one final over the previous 3 seasons

On that basis, Richmond can't win the flag in 2015

If they are a chance for 2016 then they need to win a final this year

Out of curiosity, who was the last one?

Wouldn't happen to be Richmond in 1967 would it?

 

[Barry_Badrinath]

Newman is shot, so take him out.

But 5 key issues:

1. Ruck. Maric struggles against the best ie. the 2 from WA
2. No crumbing forward. Edwards, Martin and Cotchin can go through there but really you need a crumber
3. Midfield depth. Unless C Ellis and McIntosh come on really well I think it's 1-2 short. Preferably 1 inside but most importantly 1 outside line breaker to flip the pressure back on top teams to get the ball in quickly.
4. Half back skill - see one Mr Bachar Houli
5. Second key defender

Very few premiership teams are perfect and maybe only Hawthorn are anywhere close this year. But if the Tigers don't at least patch some of those gaps in the off season I think they will struggle. A small forward and midfield depth would be my 2 most important.

The Tigers A graders are now doing it consistently against the best. The B Graders are finding consistency and belief. But got to have depth to win those crucial games to finish top 4 and go in to finals with confidence.

Good post apart from the Houli call. One bad kick shouldn't discount the fact he's possibly our best kick.

 

[demondavey]

They've shown during the last two years that they can match it with the best, the final piece to fall into place will be consistency. I see no reason why they can't finish top 4 and give it a serious crack next year. Having said that, they need the belief that they're worthy of being a finals team, absolutely have to win a final this year.

Agree with this. Minimising the discrepancy between their best and worst is a big must. Losing games to Melbourne for example, simply not on if you're aspiring to be a top 4 side. If they had won on the weekend they'd be sitting 4th I believe, so they really are not that far off it. I think their mid tier players need to really step up, and they probably need a bit more through the middle to start putting together a more complete list.

Consistency, another 1-2 A graders, and some general improvement overall should see them take the next step.

 

[Madtiger2006]

Just like every year they will tease and fail.

Like north do

 

[Quivorir]

Like north do

Yep, but this thread aint about North.

 

[MightyHawks]

Out of curiosity, who was the last one?

Wouldn't happen to be Richmond in 1967 would it?

Everyone since Hawthorn in 1971 with one exception

But who is the exception?

I think this stat makes a lot of sense, teams learn something by winning and losing a final - great preparation for a finals series where they are a genuine contender

 

[Madtiger2006]

I think lennon and mcdonough will spend plenty of time forward next year. Would like to see us get rid of petterd, thomas, morris for a start. Newman and Knights should retire too. Dea and foley may be gone also. May need a good young ruckman and we should continue to draft midfielders. If we had another edwards to play forward we would be well set for the future. Btw Rance is an A grader and Edwards will be an A grader at some point

 

[Ron The Bear]

Everyone since Hawthorn in 1971 with one exception

But who is the exception?

I think this stat makes a lot of sense, teams learn something by winning and losing a final - great preparation for a finals series where they are a genuine contender

Adelaide 1997
Collingwood 1990
Essendon 1993 and Richmond 1980 won one final three years prior.

 

[Tiger71]

Newman is shot, so take him out.

But 5 key issues:

1. Ruck. Maric struggles against the best ie. the 2 from WA
2. No crumbing forward. Edwards, Martin and Cotchin can go through there but really you need a crumber
3. Midfield depth. Unless C Ellis and McIntosh come on really well I think it's 1-2 short. Preferably 1 inside but most importantly 1 outside line breaker to flip the pressure back on top teams to get the ball in quickly.
4. Half back skill - see one Mr Bachar Houli
5. Second key defender

Very few premiership teams are perfect and maybe only Hawthorn are anywhere close this year. But if the Tigers don't at least patch some of those gaps in the off season I think they will struggle. A small forward and midfield depth would be my 2 most important.

The Tigers A graders are now doing it consistently against the best. The B Graders are finding consistency and belief. But got to have depth to win those crucial games to finish top 4 and go in to finals with confidence.

Good post and i agree.

Just consider where this list has come from since Hardwick started in 2010. We have about 6 more players we need to replace in our side. I believe with our young kids we have proberbly one that will make it as our crumbing forward in either Short or Butler. We have a nice developing back in Elton who should replace Chaplin. In the back half, if we can recruit a Motlop for example, that will allow us to play Lids in the Houli role.

We have gone from being non competitive to now competitive and playing finals without the benifit of a bottom 4 draw to shoot us up the ladder, this will be our third year straight finals series, not many sides can say the same that they have played finals 3 years straight. So we have turned the corner but this years off season and next years is huge for us. if we can add in some real talent to complement our young list, then yes we should then evolve to a top 4 side.

 

[Elton Johns Wig]

Besides Cotchin, Deledio, and Reiwoldt, none of the A graders listed are actually A graders.

Rance isn't an A grader???? Okaaaayyyyyyyy *backs away slowly* *rings mental health* "we got a live one"

 

[Marley10]

They can, but need to get it right in the off-season to strengthen their list. They'd need to be active in the trade period.

A big issue that I can see is depth. A few key injuries and they'll lose to teams like Melbourne. Avoid injuries and I can't see why they can't contend

 

[living_in_syd]

Wait until we get pounded by hawthorn on friday

 

[Marley10]

Wait until we get pounded by hawthorn on friday

Everyone is getting pounded by Hawthorn. Nothing surprising there.

I still think the 9 in a row last year has done a lot of good for the club, despite the EF. It's built a winning culture.

 

[the_interloper]

We certainly can if we have next to no injuries. I think if we lose any of Maric, Rance, Deledio, Martin or Riewoldt for a decent amount of time we would struggle, more than one out of this group and we might miss the finals. I think our group of essential players is larger than many of the top teams which is a worry.

 

[MightyHawks]

Adelaide 1997
Collingwood 1990
Essendon 1993 and Richmond 1980 won one final three years prior.

forgot about collingwood.

Yes there are two exceptions, Adelaide 1997 and Collingwood 1990 with Adelaide winning a final in 1993 (4 years prior)

41 of the last 43 premiership sides have won a final within the previous 3 years

Don't think its a coincidence - as finals experience counts for something

 

[Ron The Bear]

Don't think its a coincidence - as finals experience counts for something

Agreed. Much better to have it than not.

 

[MightyHawks]

Agreed. Much better to have it than not.

It's interesting to note that in 1997 Adelaide won the Preliminary & Grand Finals against sides that hadn't won a final in the previous 3 years either

And Collingwood in 1990 beat an Essendon team that had had a disrupted finals series with having two weeks off in a row due to the Collingwood v West Coast draw and replay - exacerbated by the Bombers having rested some players in the final round of the season

 

[juss]

You don't need to win it to be a contender, yes we can contend for it, by that I mean we can be in the mix and make a prelim next year. But probably one of the least likely contenders to actually win it.

 

[TigerTime88]

Suspect the end will come rather quickly for Maric unfortunately, and they don't really have another ruckman.

Incredible the chat about McBean from this season and even last, him coming in and replacing Ty was going to help the side greatly, and now it's all about Vickery after he's played a handful of solid games this year? Bizarre.

Martin still gets way too much footy running away from goal in the back half, then kicking it across his body, quite often to opposition players for a turnover and a quick goal.

Will be stunned if Conca becomes anything at all, should probably play Lambert over him.

Lennon is silky but incredibly slow, which is a shame because the Tigers need a bit more outside speed and foot skills, as well as a genuine small forward.

Can't really see them getting past 3rd or so with this list unless they can bring in a few immediate contributors. Top end is quite good, bottom 4 or 6 players are still pretty poor.

I just have to pick apart this comment because although everyone is entitled to their opinion, I cannot believe how inaccurate you are on a few points.

1. McBean - I would be surprised if you found one RFC supporter who thought McBean would come in and replace the other talls this year and be a great white hope. Richmond supporters in general know McBean is still a few years off. At 202cm and 93kgs you can't expect him to be dominating AFL.

2. Conca is a far superior player to Lambert. The fact you would choose Lambert over Conca says alot about your knowledge of Richmond.

3. Martin does need to keep building his tank but his defensive side has improved this year. He had 4 shots on goal on the weekend. Not bad for a guy getting his footy in the back half.

4. We need a genuine small forward and I believe we will get one. Lennon isn't a small forward he is more of a Stevie J skillful medium sized type.

 

[TigerTime88]

I think you're being a bit generous. 6 As, 3 B+s and 5 Bs in your 22? That only leaves 8/22 players rated C or below. If your list is genuinely that good then you should be contending.

Richmond have 4 players who have been selected in the AA team. Deledio (2012), Cotchin (2012), Riewoldt (2010), Rance (2014). By comparison, Hawthorn have 9, many of whom have multiple selections. Plus they have guys like Gunston, Gibson and and Isaac Smith. What is their A/B/B+ mix?

I look at my own team and we have Naitanui, Kennedy, Mackenzie who I'd call A grade. Priddis maybe depending on your bent, LeCras can be a matchwinner, Yeo looks like a potential star, Shuey and Darling are pretty handy... Etc. Still plenty of GOPs in our 22, and we're 2nd and beat you on your home ground.

Richmond's talls outside Rance and Riewoldt are pretty uninspiring. The midfield is pretty good, but your 3 guns are all 'on their day' players. If Cotchin, Martin and Deledio don't all fire then Richmond are very beatable.

Comparing a sides All Australians to a side who this year will win their 3rd flag in a row, plus a flag in 08 is strange. Premiership years generally mean your players get picked as AA's. Hell Lumumba is an All Australian!

 

[TigerTime88]

Can contend, but if Newman is persisted with, McDonough and Lennon don't come on, and Gordon and Lloyd aren't replaced, I don't think they have enough quality up forward come finals.

Jack Riewoldt is obviously a gun. But how will Vickery and Griffiths go in a final with teams that should have quality 2nd and 3rd defenders? They are alright but not stars. Small forwards don't often win finals but they can sure lose them. Tiges fans can obviously point to the output of Cotchin, Martin, Deledio and Edwards as kicking goals and resting forward, but when it comes to crunch time, you'll see Hodge, Mitchell, Burgoyne and Lewis in the midfield for Hawthorn.

So I really do think someone like Motlop would be huge, because come late in a finals game, the talls, especially Riewoldt, are going to be swamped by defenders. Important to have another avenue up forward other than your best mids.

Also, I know people said this a couple of years ago about Houli/Edwards/Vickery who have all now earned spots (the first 2 in particular), but surely they find it hard with Hunt, Morris, Newman, maybe even Grigg still, to contend?

Very good post.

The improvement for us will come from Corey Ellis/Menadue/Lennon and future first round picks/recruits from other clubs replacing Morris, Lloyd, Gordon and co. Those guys are spuds no doubt about it. Fortunately it is easier to improve the bottom 5.

Plus we have plenty of cap room and will be chasing genuine A graders over coming trade periods.