Quigley's Draft Rankings 2015

[SumTingWong]

I don't mind Jack Firns myself as a third round selection. From what I can tell is excellent one on one, quite a good user of the ball and a great size. Would you take him here or only as a rookie?

 

[Quixote]

Great work, thanks for posting mate.

 

[Quigley]

I don't mind Jack Firns myself as a third round selection. From what I can tell is excellent one on one, quite a good user of the ball and a great size. Would you take him here or only as a rookie?

Firns should be right in contention. I quite liked him but I would not have him ahead of any of the other KPDs in the top 50. There are quite a few KPDs this year and Firns is one who could turn out to be good. He has some nice tools but I did think he lacked some consistency even within games.

 

[Quigley]

Quigley... My only concern with Keays his his disposal by foot. I sometimes wonder if people are getting ahead of themself with him just because he is a academy player and they all seem to be hype more then they would if they werent. You say he would have been good enough to play AFL in 2015, so I gather you dont have the same concerns with his kicking? I find players who need to work on their kicks tend to spend more time "developing" in the ressies regardless of how much ball they find. Call it the Dalziel rule

As I said in my write up I did have a fair bit of concern with his kicking his year and he is still a work in progress in this regard. I really don't think there is a problem with his kicking it is more that he wants to go short too much. Maybe its a vision issue. He was more damaging this year and I think that continues.

On the bit about playing AFL this year that was a comment made by one of our coaches at a ressies match that was overheard. You probably need to take that with the injuries that we had and the quality that was vying for selection at stages in the reserves. He was playing well enough at that stage to play games. Will that be the case with a full list to pick from? Maybe I think.

 

[Quigley]

Quigley great read mate. I got a quick question. How do you rate Schache compared to the previous highly rated KPPs taken in the past few years? THings like reading the play, contested marking, leading patterns, 1v1 ability etc. Cheers.

Overall on the power forward types:

1. Boyd
2. Hogan (this is coming out of juniors. If you gave a choice now it would be Hogan by a big margin)
3. Daniher
4. Schache
5. Patton

Schache would be the best shot on goal but would lose ground on his leading, ability to get and keep separation and a bit on his hands.

 

[iBeng]

Overall on the power forward types:

1. Boyd
2. Hogan (this is coming out of juniors. If you gave a choice now it would be Hogan by a big margin)
3. Daniher
4. Schache
5. Patton

Schache would be the best shot on goal but would lose ground on his leading, ability to get and keep separation and a bit on his hands.

Collingwood fans wont be happy about you not rating Moore more.

 

[Quigley]

Top read again Quigley.

They said in the Herald Sun the other day that he was ranked no.1 in division 1 for clearances and contested possessions, so that would probably back that up.

How did he test over 20m at the combine? He hasn't looked slow in any of the times I've seen him playing full matches and he also looked to have a fine amount of speed when bursting through the middle of the ground on a long run in the highlights package on the AFL site, so I'd be interested to see how he tested in the shorter sprints.

It would also be interesting to know how his endurance testing compared to David Armitage's, when he was drafted, as his tank has been an issue and probably largely resulted in him taking as long as he did to really start to live up to his top 10 draft number.

He ran a 3.09 which is pretty decent.

Not sure what Armitage ran but I do not remember many who ran as badly as Mathieson did. Teams might have backed themselves in to get Armitage off the ciggies as a means of improving his endurance.

 

[Quigley]

Collingwood fans wont be happy about you not rating Moore more.

I was not the biggest fan of Moore last year and I am not sure many impartial judges would have rated Moore's draft year ahead of any of the guy's I mentioned. All of them looked like better prospects than Moore did. Moore might end up a very good player but at that point in time I would certainly have taken all of those others.

 

[Jazny]

Quigley how fast is Jake Sushames?? He looks so quick when he was playing on the wing for Tassie. I am kind of surprised nobody apart from you is talking about him anymore, but I guess he had a bad year.

 

[eaglespremiers]

Where on earth is David Cuningham?
Do you simply not rate him in the top 60 draft prospects?

 

[Quigley]

Where on earth is David Cuningham?
Do you simply not rate him in the top 60 draft prospects?

Top 50 really. The last 10 are usually guys I want to write about.

As I mentioned earlier I expect Cunningham to be picked probably in the 2nd or 3rd round but I did not rate him at the Champs and that is where I get to see these kids the most. Cunningham might well become a player but his inability to step up when the quality went up caused me to look elsewhere.

 

[Quigley]

Quigley how fast is Jake Sushames?? He looks so quick when he was playing on the wing for Tassie. I am kind of surprised nobody apart from you is talking about him anymore, but I guess he had a bad year.

I don't have the times for him.

 

[Rack Watts]

I hope you don't mind me commenting here Quigley I watched the Tassie lads a lot this year.
Jazny
Sushames is Stephen Hill quick, he had a really poor Nationals comp, which is unfortunate, as before that I had him as a smokie for in the top 30 for the draft.
"On his day" which you never want to hear, he can tear a game apart. Hopefully he gets picked late, or is a shot for a rookie, as it would be a waste of talent to not do so.

 

[Honeyboy Wilson]

So glad you're back for this year Quigley, my favourite thread each year.

I was very surprised that O'Kearney has been tumbling down the draft rankings and I'm glad I'm not alone in still rating him. I hope his name is called out for Port tomorrow night.

 

[Richo83]

Sobering reading. Thank you for the effort you put in. I always look forward to reading your thoughts.

I hope you're wrong about this draft.

Why do you say that?

 

[Quigley]

Its interesting. I seem to rate this draft a lot more highly than many others including the professionals who are very negative on it depth wise. I think there is a definite lack of talent in the top 5 compared to most years but I quite like the depth of the draft all the way down after that. I do try and point out the negatives as I see it with the players as well as the positives and that can come across a bit worrying if you are only used to hearing the positive.

FWIW I have heard quite a few people bagging next year's draft as well. Personally I like the top end mids a lot in next year's group but the Div 1 top end talent depth is down a fair bit. The academy kids could feature again quite strongly with the Lions having one guy who could be top 5 and the Giants having 3 players I would have in my top 15 atm. GC might have their first very good prospect come through if Scheer can look like he did as an under 16.

 

[Balony_pony16]

Its interesting. I seem to rate this draft a lot more highly than many others including the professionals who are very negative on it depth wise. I think there is a definite lack of talent in the top 5 compared to most years but I quite like the depth of the draft all the way down after that. I do try and point out the negatives as I see it with the players as well as the positives and that can come across a bit worrying if you are only used to hearing the positive.

FWIW I have heard quite a few people bagging next year's draft as well. Personally I like the top end mids a lot in next year's group but the Div 1 top end talent depth is down a fair bit. The academy kids could feature again quite strongly with the Lions having one guy who could be top 5 and the Giants having 3 players I would have in my top 15 atm. GC might have their first very good prospect come through if Scheer can look like he did as an under 16.

seems too me people bag the drafts more and more each year... I think this draft looks pretty solid up to the 30's. last year it batted a bit deeper but judging drafts on speculative quality in the 4th round and onwards is pretty pointless IMO

 

[TheRedPill]

Incredible work Quigley - with the level of analysis you put in, I always look forward to reading your thoughts.

Thoughts on the Blues draft so far?

 

[blueiris]

What are your thoughts on the players the Lions picked Quigs

 

[iBeng]

What are your thoughts on the players the Lions picked Quigs

15. Rhys Mathieson

Ht – 186 Wt 82


Mathieson seems to have been losing popularity since the Champs and I remained very bullish on him until I got a look at his Combine beep test result. Prior to that I had him in the top 7 given how he controlled things at the Champs. Vic Country had a stacked team this year including the blokes who are virtual certainties to go 1 and 2 but personally I would probably have Mathieson behind only Schache in terms of importance to that side. He gave his team first use of the ball more than any other (no stats to back that up fwiw) and seemed like the leader of the midfield group who stood up when they needed someone to.


There is still a lot of improvement left in Mathieson if he can get his endurance up to an acceptable level. He is mostly an inside player at the moment who gets his hands on the ball first a lot. He has nice size and is a strong presence around packs who keeps his feet and bullocks through packs. He is composed in traffic and has a variety of moves to get himself free and he rides contact nicely. There are guys in the AFL who you just know are going to win a clearance at important times in a game and Mathieson is one of those types of players. He has clean hands which are reasonably quick. He does not always get it away cleanly or to a player in a good position but he gets it out well enough.


Mathieson was considered a poor kick coming into the year and has worked hard on improving his kicking. Whilst there is still the occasional loopy kick that does not go to a target he is much better by foot now than he was at this time last year. He has gotten to the stage where he seems well balanced when kicking and will deliver some nice flat passes with penetration. He needs to make that kick his default kick and with the improvement he has shown this year I would back him to get there.


As mentioned a couple of times already the big issue for him is his endurance and he tested very badly in the beep test at the Combine. He was in the bottom 5% of those tested and whilst I did not expect him to be elite in his endurance testing I certainly did not expect him to do as badly as that. He tested better in the 3km (in the 40th percentile) but the lack of improvement in his beep test results would have sent red flags to teams. Pace wise Mathieson is also nothing to write home about and again tested quite poorly in the 30m repeat sprint. He did do okay in the jumps however and surprisingly well in the kicking test. He also tested well in clean hands test although this was less surprising. Going into the Combine I was not expecting much from Mathieson but he managed to underwhelm all the same.


Mathieson needs to work on his outside game. His spread is not up to AFL standard and that is likely to be a function of his endurance levels. He is going to be in for a painful preseason no matter where he goes as he tries to improve this aspect of his game. When he gets the ball on the outside he is pretty good with it and things move around him pretty well. His decision making is reasonable and his delivery into 50 is often pretty good. He is a quick thinker and will move the ball on quickly as demanded in the AFL at the moment.


Mathieson is capable up forward. He is a good mark and dangerous with the ball on the ground. He is smart with the use of his body and keeps the ball in front of himself and the opponent on his back very nicely. He is a good finisher and knows where the goals are when he gets the chance.


I am often very partial to the really competitive guys and I think if you have a heap of those types in your team you are going to win a lot more than you use. Mathieson is one of those guys who will run through brick walls to get his team a win. If I am taking a guy in the first round I prioritise taking those sorts of players. It is not just what he can do himself but what he helps the team do as a unit.

47. Sam Skinner

Ht – 197 Ht – 94


Skinner did his knee in the second game at the Champs this year which was pretty unfortunate for him for several reasons. First because of the injury itself and secondly because he was one who still had a fair bit to prove. One of the things he had yet to prove was where the hell he was going to play.


Skinner has played both forward and back this year as well as a fair bit of time in the ruck. He has good size being both tall and powerfully built. He has the size and inclination to play some second ruck at AFL level and that should help him be picked up. He has been coached the last couple of years by Leigh Brown and that is the kind of player that he is. He is a bit one paced and lacks explosiveness but he can get around the park and he uses his strength and size to create opportunities for himself.


He has been quoted several times as preferring to play as a backman. He was the MVP for Vic Country at the under 16 Champs in that role. At the back he reads the play well and gets to the fall of the ball nicely. He plays off a fair bit and backs himself to outmark the opposition. This has worked well at junior level but I am not sure that is going to fly against AFL quality forwards. In the AFL he is going to be playing against guys who are as tall and probably more athletic than he is and if he gives them a chance a lot are just going to come over top of him. I also think his lack of explosiveness is going to find him out at AFL level. He also has a bit of a wide turning circle and I think he is going to have trouble dealing with quicker AFL forwards who will get a couple of steps on him pretty easily and he will not be able to make up ground. He is not a high possession winner and does not get involved in the possession chain as much as you would like going forward.


I see Skinner as a KPF / 2nd ruck at AFL level. Up forward he can plonk himself in the square and work from there. He can offer multiple leads and is reasonably smart about the moves that he uses to get open. He might well be best suited as an old fashion power forward who overpowers the defender in a wrestling match. He can also get out and crash packs and bring the ball to the ground. I would not expect a heap of goals from him but he would provide a big target and his smalls could work off him. He is a good contested mark and has really nice strong hands. A lot of his marks are contested and I think that is likely at AFL level as well when defenders are going to be sitting on him. He is a good mark with the ball coming in on his head which a lot of forwards are not. He clears space for himself and goes up and brings it down.


Another reason I see him playing more up forward is his kicking. He is very ordinary by foot and went in the 50s for DE% both at the Champs and the TAC this year. He has good penetration on his kicks and seems confident enough but he just misses too many targets. Up forward his set shot also needs work. He pulls to the left on his release and this can cause issues with his ball drop. When he gets to the AFL he is going to need to work on his kicking.


Copied from his OP

 

[iBeng]

Long story short, Rhys is an absolute steal, Skinner will be handy, getting Keays and Hipwood bid on late was HUGE and Schache is...Well, hes Schache. Perfect for us.

 

[halfback dasher]

A massive fan of yours as you know mate .......
So a VERY keen on your thoughts about the three lads we picked up , seems all have ?? marks ( injurys , height etc ) and its seems from the untrained eye on these 3 high risk/high reward ?
cheers Dasher

 

[M Malice]

the knock on matheison and a reason for him sliding from most big footy phantom drafters is his aerobic ability. that has to be the easiest thing to work on in an afl system if the desire from the player is there. quigley, do you know why his beep test was so poor? recent injury? some players genetics maybe just don't lend themselves to being aerobic beasts, lions have green and rich who seem not to be that with years in the system, maybe matheison can rest back or forward when needed.

 

[dergert]

What are your thoughts about kieran Collins? Do you think he can transition to the afl standard? I just can't help but feel that he may not have a huge scope of improvement left physically..

 

[LemmingMaster]

What are your thoughts about kieran Collins? Do you think he can transition to the afl standard? I just can't help but feel that he may not have a huge scope of improvement left physically..

Those were the same words used for Wines, Hawkins...

At least you know he has an AFL sized body and once he gets into the system they will streamline his body shape.
He is also a December baby so there is even more scope for improvement, so plenty of upside.
He loves the physical contest and rarely gets beaten (at jnr level) so that is a bonus.
His kicking was an issue and it is slowly improving to a position where I think it is not a massive weakness.

The main concern will be the closing speed against the quicker forwards, so he may have to man up on the resting rucks.