2017 Ladder Predictions

[Lsta062]

But there is something incredibly strange about freo's fall. Minor premiers have been struck by injuries really heavily before and they just don't drop down to bottom four.

What happened to Fremantle wasn't something that often occurs. Happened to West Coast too falling from 4th to 16th from 2007 to 2008. West Coast's fall is more understandable though.

 

[Lsta062]

The doggies had the same win/loss record for games decided under 10 points at Hawthorn. Based on this logic and the fact they have more 30 year olds than Hawthorn shouldn't they drop out of the 8 at well?

In what crazy world can someone honestly say they are predicting Brisbane to finish higher than Hawthorn next year?

I find Brisbane forming a decent forward line. Their midfield is alright too, especially if McCluggage and Berry make quick impact. Defensively not so great, but the aforementioned + bringing in Fagan may change up their losing culture quicker than people may expect.

I do notice Bulldogs' similarity to Hawthorn, but Bulldogs are a young side and have been battered by injuries. In my opinion, they held up quite well actually. This is why their performance in the finals was quite different to Hawthorn's performance when they started to get players back.

Hawthorn is not like that. They are more like Geelong of 2014 and Fremantle of 2015 than Bulldogs. Up for so long, and their Premiership/Grand Final players are getting older every year, and I am not sure that their youth can lift them up the ladder, even if it is only for the 2017 season.

Motivation plays a role too. Some are 4-time Premiers, so will they have the motivation and the eagerness to fight to remain in the top 8 like some others who haven't done much of note do? This is a challenge that many great sides of the past have failed, and it isn't unreasonable to suggest that Hawthorn will fail that test too.

This why I think they'll crash next year as opposed to a team like Bulldogs. I will wait until the preseason games are finished for my "official" and final thoughts on Hawthorn, but this is where I am thinking they are headed right now.

 

[Trucker Tiger]

1. GWS
2. Sydney
3. Adelaide
4. Western Bulldogs
5. St Kilda
6. Collingwood
7. Freo
8. Melbourne

9. Geelong
10. Hawthorn
11. Port
12. WCE
13. Essendon
14. GCS
15. Richmond
16. North
17. Brisbane
18. Carlton

 

[Angus Young]

Jayzuz....Collingwood top 4 and Hawthorn to finish below Brisbane....

Balls to the wall prediction there.

acid

 

[SterlingArcher]

You'd think after 4 flags in 8 years Hawks fans wouldn't be so sensitive to a ladder prediction...

 

[William Wonka]

You'd think after 4 flags in 8 years Hawks fans wouldn't be so sensitive to a ladder prediction...

Not sensitive, simply bewildered.

 

[Janus]

1. GWS

Last Season: Won 16, Lost 6. 61 Quarters Won (14, 16, 16, 15). 2380 Points For (2nd), 1663 Points Against (4th). Average Win Margin 50.6 (1st), Average Loss Margin 15.3 (2nd)

No surprises who tops the list. You'd have to be a complete fool to predict anything other than the Giants improving on their 4th place in the regular season, especially when you consider that they wiped the floor with Sydney twice (once in home and away, once in finals). The only thing working against them is whether or not they can actually take advantage of their home ground during a finals campaign against anyone other than Sydney, because the preliminary final was more like a neutral venue thanks to a standard number of opposition fans making them trip up to Spotless to voice their support. It's really now or never for the Giants, because in the next few years free agency and salary cap pressures will start to bite hard.

Premiership quality defense and attack. What's not to love?

2. Sydney

Last Season: Won 17, Lost 5. 60 Quarters Won (17, 13, 17, 13). 2221 Points For (4th), 1469 Points Against (1st). Average Win Margin 47.9 (6th), Average Loss Margin 12.4 (1st)

Along with GWS, the only lock for a finals spot IMO. Sydney might have lost Mitchell, but they've resigned Heeney for 5 years, and will be getting back Aliir to provide them with that much needed intercept running and dash off of half back that was exposed as lacking by the Bulldogs in the GF. It would be the wet dream of AFL House to have an all Sydney grand final as ratings would be the highest ever, but it would also guarantee a groundswell of support for GWS if they managed to get up.

3. Adelaide

Last Season: Won 16, Lost 6. 61 Quarters Won (15, 15, 17, 14). 2483 Points For (1st), 1795 Points Against (6th). Average Win Margin 50.1 (Equal 2nd), Average Loss Margin 18.8 (3rd)

Adelaide had the perfect season last year, until it came time to step up in finals, where their lack of star power and one paced midfield was exposed by the contested, in your face nature of finals football. Their lack of meaningful injuries to their best 22 has not exposed their depth to the amount of game time that other teams have seen, but it has also enabled Don Pyke to bed his game style into the minds of the Crows' players. Three big wins against opposition missing key players in Fremantle and Port Adelaide served to pad their offensive and defensive rating, but rucking rule changes should see Sam Jacobs push to be in the AA conversation once more. Their style is one of maximum efficiency for minimal effort, so while I don't rate them to do anything come finals time, I do think they will be top four. And then go out it straight sets.

4. Port Adelaide

Last Season: Won 10, Lost 12. 45 Quarters Won (12, 12, 9, 12). 2055 Points For (7th), 1939 Points Against (9th). Average Win Margin 50.1 (Equal 2nd), Average Loss Margin 32.1 (8th)

Port Adelaide was missing Patrick Ryder for the entire season, finishing dead last in hitouts with 669 - 384 behind fellow non-finalist Melbourne. This affected their clearance numbers (862), with a fair portion of those being clangers (3rd in the league at 1274) - their disposal efficiency was dead last at 70.7%. Despite this, they still managed to put over 2000 points on the board for the season, so the attack wasn't as big a problem as their defense - which had no fewer than 8 changes to its personnel throughout the season with Alipate Carlile, Jack Hombsch, Tom Jonas, Jackson Trengove, Nathan Krakouer, Hamish Hartlett and Matthew Broadbent finding themselves either on the sidelines or away from defensive duties for a significant portion of the season. With the emergence of Logan Austin (2nd for 1%ers per game across the entire league) as a corner stone of their new look defense to replace the retired Carlile, with contested bulls Sam Powell-Pepper and Joe Atley to assist in shoveling the ball out to runners at the contest, expect Port to shoot up the ladder in 2017. My (admittedly biased) pick for which team outside the top eight will be top four (which happens almost every year).

5. Western Bulldogs

Last Season: Won 15, Lost 7. 45 Quarters Won (12, 9, 13, 11). 1857 Points For (12th), 1609 Points Against (3rd). Average Win Margin 27.3 (14th), Average Loss Margin 23 (5th)

Footscray welcomed back a number of key players at the right time while falling fortuitously on the side of the draw that enabled them to play two sides that either didn't have or were missing an elite ruck in West Coast and Hawthorn while avoiding fellow third man up specialist Geelong to win the flag in 2016. Fortune, as they say, favors the brave, and the Dogs are one of the key exponents of relentless attack on the ball while exposing similarly constructed teams on the outside through run and dash. However, this was generated in no small part by the ability of their rucks to simply negate the opposition ruck - which will now be a free kick against - so I'm expecting an adjustment period to take place for the Bulldogs in 2017 while they come to terms with a reduction in clearances this brings and the added pressure of being the hunted as premiers.This will cost them a top four berth - but not a shot at the flag. The Dogs, along with GWS, played modern football last year, which is why they won the flag.

6. Collingwood

Last Season: Won 9, Lost 13. 38 Quarters Won (10, 14, 7, 7). 1910 Points For (11th), 1998 Points Against (12th). Average Win Margin 39.3 (8th), Average Loss Margin 34 (10th)

A team devastated by injuries in a game against the eventual premiers that they should have won - a true sliding doors moment for the entire season. Grundy being one of the few elite rucks that can actually contribute effectively around the ground will have a field day in 2017. You can see in the amount of third and fourth quarters won just how poor their conditioning was through injury and also being exposed by sides who focused on speed and power running rather than the endurance that sides like Collingwood and Port Adelaide worked on during the 2016 preseason. That will be rectified...but the loss of Swan and to some extent Cloke will see them not push up as high as they might have.

7. Hawthorn

Last Season: Won 17, Lost 5. 47 Quarters Won (10, 9, 13, 15). 2134 Points For (6th), 1800 Points Against (7th). Average Win Margin 29.8 (12th), Average Loss Margin 34.6 (11th)

Hawthorn and Geelong rose together, so it stands to reason that they will fall together. However, the Hawks have stolen a march on the Cats by using free agency and the trade period to target key young players like O'Maera and Mitchell and start to build their next premiership assault. The loss of Mitchell and Lewis from their midfield to facilitate this will be telling in 2017, however - though it was the correct decision to fast track development of younger players. With spearhead Roughead returning from illness, I'm expecting Hawthorn to follow the Sydney model and tread water in finals for a couple of years, waiting for the inevitable shift from the contested style of game that is flavor of the month back to a possession based game when younger sides like the Giants and the Dogs can no longer be as kamikaze as they are now.

8. Essendon

Last Season: Won 3, Lost 19. 25 Quarters Won (5, 8, 4, 8). 1437 Points For (18th), 2356 Points Against (17th). Average Win Margin 14.3 (18th), Average Loss Margin 50.6 (17th)

The second of two teams heavily affected by the supplements saga, and deservedly so. However, the Bombers have the nucleus of an exceptional side that, if not for the dramas of the last three years, should of and would have been challenging for a flag with the likes of Heppell, Hurley, Watson, Stanton, Daniher etc. With the best talent in the first and second rounds from the draft at their disposal to add to their list, I'm predicting the Bombers to use the ashes of 2016 as the fertilizer for the new growth of talent that will lead to their next premiership.

9. Melbourne

Last Season: Won 10, Lost 12. 42 Quarters Won (11, 11, 8, 12). 1944 Points For (10th), 1991 Points Against (11th). Average Win Margin 35.5 (11th), Average Loss Margin 33.5 (9th)

I fail to see how anyone can actually believe Melbourne is going to play finals next year. Mediocre in every single statistic without the excuse of having players suspended or injured, there is just nothing to suggest that there is going to be some surge into contention other than natural growth from players and the hope of a fan base and the media that believes that if the Bulldogs can do it, so can we. The Demons need one more year of stockpiling talent outside of the eight before their surge into finals, and they will use this year to scare a lot of teams by how good they will eventually become while improving both offensively and defensively across the board. Need to focus on defensive actions this year - and not the attacking style that wins you fans in the media and public -to be any real threat for a flag in the coming years.

10. Geelong

Last Season: Won 17, Lost 5. 58 Quarters Won (12, 13, 14, 19). 2235 Points For (3rd), 1554 Points Against (2nd). Average Win Margin 45.8 (7th), Average Loss Margin 19.4 (4th)

The second of two teams that will be adversely affected by the new ruck rules. Geelong's domination of the fourth quarter during games came in no small part to their ruck battery of Stanley and Smith being able to wear down opposition rucks by working them over in tandem, with Blicavs adding over 100 hitouts as third man up over the course of the season. With this ability neutralized, the lack of advantage around stoppages for the Cats - particularly for an explosive player like Dangerfield who likes to feed off of directed taps - and the retirements of Bartel and Enright who were key parts of their best 22 for 2016, will see them fall down the ladder. 2016 will be seen as a dead cat bounce. Ahem.

11. West Coast

Last Season: Won 16, Lost 6. 58 Quarters Won (16, 16, 14, 12). 2181 Points For (5th), 1678 Points Against (5th). Average Win Margin 43 (7th), Average Loss Margin 30.8 (7th)

When people see just how much of an impact the loss of Naitanui has on the Eagles' fortunes for 2017, perhaps they will understand why I have Port Adelaide rated so highly. The West Coast midfield is as good as anyone's in terms of contested possessions, but their ability to move the ball out of congestion is centered around how well their ruck does in the contest. They are the antithesis of the Bulldogs in this regard - while the Dogs rely on negating opposition rucks to shovel the ball out to their runners, West Coast rely on dominating opposition rucks with Naitanui's athleticism to shovel the ball out to their runners. With him gone for the majority of the season, and with Lycett also coming back from an injury...it's far better for the Eagles to use this year to get talent that they would have otherwise missed out on (like Port did this year) and push for top four in 2018.

12. St Kilda

Last Season: Won 12, Lost 10. 40 Quarters Won (11, 11, 9, 9). 1953 Points For (9th), 2041 Points Against (13th). Average Win Margin 31.9 (11th), Average Loss Margin 47.1 (16th)

When a 34 year old is still kicking the second highest amount of goals for your side, no matter how good he is, it's impossible to believe that things are going to get better before they get worse. The Saints have the making of a great team that is full of run and flair, but just like Melbourne, they need another year of collecting top talent to storm up the ladder - it takes about 7 years to rebuild a list, and they played in a GF in 2010. A top ten pick, combined with Hawthorn's first round pick, and the experienced gained from the coming season, has the Saints as my 2018 'outside the eight to top four' pick. More of an heir apparent to the Dogs than Melbourne.

13. Fremantle

Last Season: Won 4, Lost 18. 30 Quarters Won (6, 8, 10, 6). 1574 Points For (16th), 2119 Points Against (14th). Average Win Margin 49.8 (4th), Average Loss Margin 41.3 (12th)

Fremantle is in rebuild mode. Lyon knows it, which is why he chose the best running defender in the draft in Griffen Logue and went after Cameron McCarthy to spearhead his attack. It will be interesting to see the side that he builds, because it will be the first time that he has carte blanche on drafting and trading to get the list that he actually wants rather than something he inherited. If Fyfe leaves for Victoria as is heavily rumoured (in no small part due to his teammates not liking him), the Dockers are going to want to finish in the top ten of the draft to maximize the benefits of Fyfe's loss. Also, while Sandilands will dominate ruck stoppages and taps - he's not 29 years old any more. He's 34, which means he will be a liability around the ground. The Dockers were built around a style of game that has now become antiquated - they had their shot at a flag, and now it's time to reset and go again.

14. Carlton

Last Season: Won 7, Lost 15. 29 Quarters Won (6, 8, 5, 10). 1568 Points For (17th), 1978 Points Against (10th). Average Win Margin 16.1 (17th), Average Loss Margin 34.9 (12th)

Where are the goals going to come from for the Blues? Their defensive actions are pretty good (though not spectacular) and Bolton has a lot of work ahead of him to turn his side around to his way of thinking - which is why Bryce Gibbs tried to move to Adelaide, because he knew just how hard it's going to be for Carlton to reemerge as a powerhouse over the next few seasons. At least Bolton as the right idea, concentrating on defense first. With the sanctions on GWS for the Whitfield saga, the Blues will be the number one beneficiary of getting a key forward talent that they otherwise would not have been entitled to - which is exactly why the sanctions were put in place.

15. Richmond

Last Season: Won 8, Lost 14. 35 Quarters Won (7, 10, 9, 9). 1713 Points For (15th), 2155 Points Against (15th). Average Win Margin 22.4 (15th), Average Loss Margin 44.4 (14th)

Hardwick is just a dud coach - he apes the tactics of others without any form of understanding as to why he is doing what he is doing. When a side with this much talent manages to give up that many points in a season, it's got nothing to do with the players and everything to do with how they are being instructed to play. The Tigers style not only doesn't stack up in finals, it also is starting to get found out in the regular season. Yes, they had injuries, but even when those players came back into the side their performances didn't markedly improve - a sure sign that the coach has lost the players. Which is the main reason why Deledio moved to GWS. Add to this the fact that two of their wins came against a depleted Essendon side and they split their games against Collingwood while just barely scraping over the line against Carlton and 13th is exactly where they deserve to be.

16. Gold Coast

Last Season: Won 6, Lost 16. 32 Quarters Won (11, 6, 9, 6). 1778 Points For (13th), 2273 Points Against (16th). Average Win Margin 38.5 (9th), Average Loss Margin 45.4 (15th)

With so many players leaving over the past couple of years, and with a massive amount of injuries, Gold Coast is virtually starting from scratch all over again...only this time, they don't have a prime Gary Ablett Jnr to steer the ship when things go wrong. The Suns have become what the old Brisbane Bears were in Queensland, and that's not a good thing. Tom Lynch is a stud, they've got the nucleus of an exceptional side...but unless they stop bleeding players every single year they will never reach their true potential.

17. North Melbourne

Last Season: Won 12, Lost 10. 45 Quarters Won (13, 12, 9, 11). 1956 Points For (8th), 1959 Points Against (8th). Average Win Margin 29.6 (13th), Average Loss Margin 25.8 (6th)

North Melbourne needs to stockpile elite, match winning talent to go with their hardworking, grunt midfield...otherwise they will become what Stu was described as in The Hangover Part 2...chok. "Chok is soft white rice in lukewarm water. It has no taste. We feed it small babies and very old people. It is nourishment that everyone can digest."

The world needs chok, just as the world needs teams like North Melbourne.

18. Brisbane

Last Season: Won 3, Lost 19. 17 Quarters Won (4, 4, 4, 5). 1770 Points For (14th), 2872 Points Against (18th). Average Win Margin 18 (16th), Average Loss Margin 60.8 (18th)

If Gold Coast are the Bears, Brisbane are Fitzroy in their last season. Lepptisch was completely out of his depth as a coach, and it's hoped that Fagan will start to concentrate on what really matters - defense - and stop them getting blown away by such huge margins. They are where Melbourne was before Roos came along, but with less talent across the board due to players leaving, and it will take an awful lot of things to go wrong for any other side for them to replace the Lions at the bottom of the ladder.

 

[Trav 20]

9. Melbourne

Last Season: Won 10, Lost 12. 42 Quarters Won (11, 11, 8, 12). 1944 Points For (10th), 1991 Points Against (11th). Average Win Margin 35.5 (11th), Average Loss Margin 33.5 (9th)

I fail to see how anyone can actually believe Melbourne is going to play finals next year. Mediocre in every single statistic without the excuse of having players suspended or injured...

This post amuses me. You can't believe people think we can play finals, yet you have us 9th. A bees ××÷÷ away.

Also, you say we're mediocre in every significant stat, except arguably the most important - contested possessions. You know, the one Port is no good at.

You might educate yourself to the historical importance of this particular stat. Of the top 5 teams in CP last season 4 made prelims. The other (Adelaide) won a final.

Dees were 6th in CP with a young midfield sans Lewis, which augurs well for the immediate future.

 

[lewdogs]

This post amuses me. You can't believe people think we can play finals, yet you have us 9th. A bees ××÷÷ away.

Also, you say we're mediocre in every significant stat, except arguably the most important - contested possessions. You know, the one Port is no good at.

You might educate yourself to the historical importance of this particular stat. Of the top 5 teams in CP last season 4 made prelims. The other (Adelaide) won a final.

Dees were 6th in CP with a young midfield sans Lewis, which augurs well for the immediate future.

We get that Melbourne did well in contested possessions. You bring it up constantly.

 

[Janus]

This post amuses me. You can't believe people think we can play finals, yet you have us 9th. A bees ××÷÷ away.

Also, you say we're mediocre in every significant stat, except arguably the most important - contested possessions. You know, the one Port is no good at.

You might educate yourself to the historical importance of this particular stat. Of the top 5 teams in CP last season 4 made prelims. The other (Adelaide) won a final.

Dees were 6th in CP with a young midfield sans Lewis, which augurs well for the immediate future.

Alastair Clarkson doesn't rate contested possessions as a meaningful stat, and he won the three previous premierships. That's all the education on historical importance of the stat that I need. The only reason why the AFL keeps pushing it as the be all and end all is because they want to move away from the Hawthorn style of uncontested game where skill and tactics override anything else and move toward a style where anyone can win on any given day.

Besides, what are we really talking about here? 10 contested possessions per game difference between Melbourne (+5.1 vs opponents) and Port (-4.8 vs opponents)? Big whoop. I'm more interested in why you're getting into so many situations where the ball is in dispute. Surely you actually want to retain possession through more uncontested marking than have the ball bounce around your midfield like a pinball?

 

[Trav 20]

We get that Melbourne did well in contested possessions. You bring it up constantly.

Twas pertinent to the post I quoted, or you can't evaluate such things ?

 

[Trav 20]

Alastair Clarkson doesn't rate contested possessions as a meaningful stat, and he won the three previous premierships. That's all the education on historical importance of the stat that I need. The only reason why the AFL keeps pushing it as the be all and end all is because they want to move away from the Hawthorn style of uncontested game where skill and tactics override anything else and move toward a style where anyone can win on any given day.

Besides, what are we really talking about here? 10 contested possessions per game difference between Melbourne (+5.1 vs opponents) and Port (-4.8 vs opponents)? Big whoop. I'm more interested in why you're getting into so many situations where the ball is in dispute. Surely you actually want to retain possession through more uncontested marking than have the ball bounce around your midfield like a pinball?

Two of the top 3 in CP in 2016 played in the Grand Final.

You're kidding yourself if you think it's not a meaningful stat. There's a reason why Clarkson made the changes he did and why their percentage was the worst since 2010. They've got no chance in 2018 if the come last again for CP. Despite his mutterings he knows full well it's an issue.

I only need to see where you put Port on the ladder to know you're not to be taken seriously.

 

[Janus]

Two of the top 3 in CP in 2016 played in the Grand Final.

You're kidding yourself if you think it's not a meaningful stat. There's a reason why Clarkson made the changes he did and why their percentage was the worst since 2010. They've got no chance in 2018 if the come last again for CP. Despite his mutterings he knows full well it's an issue.

I only need to see where you put Port on the ladder to know you're not to be taken seriously.

Guess we'll see, won't we? It's a prediction thread, everyone is going to be wrong on some level.

See, the difference between Sydney, the Dogs and Melbourne is this: Sydney and Footscray were top three for points allowed on top of being in the top three for contested possession. That's why I'm telling you that until the Demons are able to lock the ball in the way the Swans and Dogs do, and actually prevent opposition sides from scoring, their CP stat is absolutely meaningless.

 

[Trav 20]

Guess we'll see, won't we? It's a prediction thread, everyone is going to be wrong on some level.

See, the difference between Sydney, the Dogs and Melbourne is this: Sydney and Footscray were top three for points allowed on top of being in the top three for contested possession. That's why I'm telling you that until the Demons are able to lock the ball in the way the Swans and Dogs do, and actually prevent opposition sides from scoring, their CP stat is absolutely meaningless.

You misunderstand me.

I have no issue with you saying we'll be ninth. It's a reasonable conclusion to draw. But you said we were mediocre in every worthwhile stat. You were wrong. We were 8th for marks inside 50, 4th for uncontested possessions (the premiers were first), and 5th for clearances. To say we were "mediocre in every significant stat" is unadulterated rubbish.

You also said you couldn't believe some people were tipping us for finals. You then proceeded to have us ninth

 

[carnthedons]

You misunderstand me.

I have no issue with you saying we'll be ninth. It's a reasonable conclusion to draw. But you said we were mediocre in every worthwhile stat. You were wrong. We were 8th for marks inside 50, 4th for uncontested possessions (the premiers were first), and 5th for clearances. To say we were "mediocre in every significant stat" is unadulterated rubbish.

You also said you couldn't believe some people were tipping us for finals. You then proceeded to have us ninth

With all that I'm amazed you finished as low as you did

 

[Donakebab]

With all that I'm amazed you finished as low as you did

Getting plenty of the ball means nothing when you use it like garbage.

 

[Angus Young]

1. GWS

Last Season: Won 16, Lost 6. 61 Quarters Won (14, 16, 16, 15). 2380 Points For (2nd), 1663 Points Against (4th). Average Win Margin 50.6 (1st), Average Loss Margin 15.3 (2nd)

No surprises who tops the list. You'd have to be a complete fool to predict anything other than the Giants improving on their 4th place in the regular season, especially when you consider that they wiped the floor with Sydney twice (once in home and away, once in finals). The only thing working against them is whether or not they can actually take advantage of their home ground during a finals campaign against anyone other than Sydney, because the preliminary final was more like a neutral venue thanks to a standard number of opposition fans making them trip up to Spotless to voice their support. It's really now or never for the Giants, because in the next few years free agency and salary cap pressures will start to bite hard.

Premiership quality defense and attack. What's not to love?

2. Sydney

Last Season: Won 17, Lost 5. 60 Quarters Won (17, 13, 17, 13). 2221 Points For (4th), 1469 Points Against (1st). Average Win Margin 47.9 (6th), Average Loss Margin 12.4 (1st)

Along with GWS, the only lock for a finals spot IMO. Sydney might have lost Mitchell, but they've resigned Heeney for 5 years, and will be getting back Aliir to provide them with that much needed intercept running and dash off of half back that was exposed as lacking by the Bulldogs in the GF. It would be the wet dream of AFL House to have an all Sydney grand final as ratings would be the highest ever, but it would also guarantee a groundswell of support for GWS if they managed to get up.

3. Adelaide

Last Season: Won 16, Lost 6. 61 Quarters Won (15, 15, 17, 14). 2483 Points For (1st), 1795 Points Against (6th). Average Win Margin 50.1 (Equal 2nd), Average Loss Margin 18.8 (3rd)

Adelaide had the perfect season last year, until it came time to step up in finals, where their lack of star power and one paced midfield was exposed by the contested, in your face nature of finals football. Their lack of meaningful injuries to their best 22 has not exposed their depth to the amount of game time that other teams have seen, but it has also enabled Don Pyke to bed his game style into the minds of the Crows' players. Three big wins against opposition missing key players in Fremantle and Port Adelaide served to pad their offensive and defensive rating, but rucking rule changes should see Sam Jacobs push to be in the AA conversation once more. Their style is one of maximum efficiency for minimal effort, so while I don't rate them to do anything come finals time, I do think they will be top four. And then go out it straight sets.

4. Port Adelaide

Last Season: Won 10, Lost 12. 45 Quarters Won (12, 12, 9, 12). 2055 Points For (7th), 1939 Points Against (9th). Average Win Margin 50.1 (Equal 2nd), Average Loss Margin 32.1 (8th)

Port Adelaide was missing Patrick Ryder for the entire season, finishing dead last in hitouts with 669 - 384 behind fellow non-finalist Melbourne. This affected their clearance numbers (862), with a fair portion of those being clangers (3rd in the league at 1274) - their disposal efficiency was dead last at 70.7%. Despite this, they still managed to put over 2000 points on the board for the season, so the attack wasn't as big a problem as their defense - which had no fewer than 8 changes to its personnel throughout the season with Alipate Carlile, Jack Hombsch, Tom Jonas, Jackson Trengove, Nathan Krakouer, Hamish Hartlett and Matthew Broadbent finding themselves either on the sidelines or away from defensive duties for a significant portion of the season. With the emergence of Logan Austin (2nd for 1%ers per game across the entire league) as a corner stone of their new look defense to replace the retired Carlile, with contested bulls Sam Powell-Pepper and Joe Atley to assist in shoveling the ball out to runners at the contest, expect Port to shoot up the ladder in 2017. My (admittedly biased) pick for which team outside the top eight will be top four (which happens almost every year).

5. Western Bulldogs

Last Season: Won 15, Lost 7. 45 Quarters Won (12, 9, 13, 11). 1857 Points For (12th), 1609 Points Against (3rd). Average Win Margin 27.3 (14th), Average Loss Margin 23 (5th)

Footscray welcomed back a number of key players at the right time while falling fortuitously on the side of the draw that enabled them to play two sides that either didn't have or were missing an elite ruck in West Coast and Hawthorn while avoiding fellow third man up specialist Geelong to win the flag in 2016. Fortune, as they say, favors the brave, and the Dogs are one of the key exponents of relentless attack on the ball while exposing similarly constructed teams on the outside through run and dash. However, this was generated in no small part by the ability of their rucks to simply negate the opposition ruck - which will now be a free kick against - so I'm expecting an adjustment period to take place for the Bulldogs in 2017 while they come to terms with a reduction in clearances this brings and the added pressure of being the hunted as premiers.This will cost them a top four berth - but not a shot at the flag. The Dogs, along with GWS, played modern football last year, which is why they won the flag.

6. Collingwood

Last Season: Won 9, Lost 13. 38 Quarters Won (10, 14, 7, 7). 1910 Points For (11th), 1998 Points Against (12th). Average Win Margin 39.3 (8th), Average Loss Margin 34 (10th)

A team devastated by injuries in a game against the eventual premiers that they should have won - a true sliding doors moment for the entire season. Grundy being one of the few elite rucks that can actually contribute effectively around the ground will have a field day in 2017. You can see in the amount of third and fourth quarters won just how poor their conditioning was through injury and also being exposed by sides who focused on speed and power running rather than the endurance that sides like Collingwood and Port Adelaide worked on during the 2016 preseason. That will be rectified...but the loss of Swan and to some extent Cloke will see them not push up as high as they might have.

7. Hawthorn

Last Season: Won 17, Lost 5. 47 Quarters Won (10, 9, 13, 15). 2134 Points For (6th), 1800 Points Against (7th). Average Win Margin 29.8 (12th), Average Loss Margin 34.6 (11th)

Hawthorn and Geelong rose together, so it stands to reason that they will fall together. However, the Hawks have stolen a march on the Cats by using free agency and the trade period to target key young players like O'Maera and Mitchell and start to build their next premiership assault. The loss of Mitchell and Lewis from their midfield to facilitate this will be telling in 2017, however - though it was the correct decision to fast track development of younger players. With spearhead Roughead returning from illness, I'm expecting Hawthorn to follow the Sydney model and tread water in finals for a couple of years, waiting for the inevitable shift from the contested style of game that is flavor of the month back to a possession based game when younger sides like the Giants and the Dogs can no longer be as kamikaze as they are now.

8. Essendon

Last Season: Won 3, Lost 19. 25 Quarters Won (5, 8, 4, 8). 1437 Points For (18th), 2356 Points Against (17th). Average Win Margin 14.3 (18th), Average Loss Margin 50.6 (17th)

The second of two teams heavily affected by the supplements saga, and deservedly so. However, the Bombers have the nucleus of an exceptional side that, if not for the dramas of the last three years, should of and would have been challenging for a flag with the likes of Heppell, Hurley, Watson, Stanton, Daniher etc. With the best talent in the first and second rounds from the draft at their disposal to add to their list, I'm predicting the Bombers to use the ashes of 2016 as the fertilizer for the new growth of talent that will lead to their next premiership.

9. Melbourne

Last Season: Won 10, Lost 12. 42 Quarters Won (11, 11, 8, 12). 1944 Points For (10th), 1991 Points Against (11th). Average Win Margin 35.5 (11th), Average Loss Margin 33.5 (9th)

I fail to see how anyone can actually believe Melbourne is going to play finals next year. Mediocre in every single statistic without the excuse of having players suspended or injured, there is just nothing to suggest that there is going to be some surge into contention other than natural growth from players and the hope of a fan base and the media that believes that if the Bulldogs can do it, so can we. The Demons need one more year of stockpiling talent outside of the eight before their surge into finals, and they will use this year to scare a lot of teams by how good they will eventually become while improving both offensively and defensively across the board. Need to focus on defensive actions this year - and not the attacking style that wins you fans in the media and public -to be any real threat for a flag in the coming years.

10. Geelong

Last Season: Won 17, Lost 5. 58 Quarters Won (12, 13, 14, 19). 2235 Points For (3rd), 1554 Points Against (2nd). Average Win Margin 45.8 (7th), Average Loss Margin 19.4 (4th)

The second of two teams that will be adversely affected by the new ruck rules. Geelong's domination of the fourth quarter during games came in no small part to their ruck battery of Stanley and Smith being able to wear down opposition rucks by working them over in tandem, with Blicavs adding over 100 hitouts as third man up over the course of the season. With this ability neutralized, the lack of advantage around stoppages for the Cats - particularly for an explosive player like Dangerfield who likes to feed off of directed taps - and the retirements of Bartel and Enright who were key parts of their best 22 for 2016, will see them fall down the ladder. 2016 will be seen as a dead cat bounce. Ahem.

11. West Coast

Last Season: Won 16, Lost 6. 58 Quarters Won (16, 16, 14, 12). 2181 Points For (5th), 1678 Points Against (5th). Average Win Margin 43 (7th), Average Loss Margin 30.8 (7th)

When people see just how much of an impact the loss of Naitanui has on the Eagles' fortunes for 2017, perhaps they will understand why I have Port Adelaide rated so highly. The West Coast midfield is as good as anyone's in terms of contested possessions, but their ability to move the ball out of congestion is centered around how well their ruck does in the contest. They are the antithesis of the Bulldogs in this regard - while the Dogs rely on negating opposition rucks to shovel the ball out to their runners, West Coast rely on dominating opposition rucks with Naitanui's athleticism to shovel the ball out to their runners. With him gone for the majority of the season, and with Lycett also coming back from an injury...it's far better for the Eagles to use this year to get talent that they would have otherwise missed out on (like Port did this year) and push for top four in 2018.

12. St Kilda

Last Season: Won 12, Lost 10. 40 Quarters Won (11, 11, 9, 9). 1953 Points For (9th), 2041 Points Against (13th). Average Win Margin 31.9 (11th), Average Loss Margin 47.1 (16th)

When a 34 year old is still kicking the second highest amount of goals for your side, no matter how good he is, it's impossible to believe that things are going to get better before they get worse. The Saints have the making of a great team that is full of run and flair, but just like Melbourne, they need another year of collecting top talent to storm up the ladder - it takes about 7 years to rebuild a list, and they played in a GF in 2010. A top ten pick, combined with Hawthorn's first round pick, and the experienced gained from the coming season, has the Saints as my 2018 'outside the eight to top four' pick. More of an heir apparent to the Dogs than Melbourne.

13. Fremantle

Last Season: Won 4, Lost 18. 30 Quarters Won (6, 8, 10, 6). 1574 Points For (16th), 2119 Points Against (14th). Average Win Margin 49.8 (4th), Average Loss Margin 41.3 (12th)

Fremantle is in rebuild mode. Lyon knows it, which is why he chose the best running defender in the draft in Griffen Logue and went after Cameron McCarthy to spearhead his attack. It will be interesting to see the side that he builds, because it will be the first time that he has carte blanche on drafting and trading to get the list that he actually wants rather than something he inherited. If Fyfe leaves for Victoria as is heavily rumoured (in no small part due to his teammates not liking him), the Dockers are going to want to finish in the top ten of the draft to maximize the benefits of Fyfe's loss. Also, while Sandilands will dominate ruck stoppages and taps - he's not 29 years old any more. He's 34, which means he will be a liability around the ground. The Dockers were built around a style of game that has now become antiquated - they had their shot at a flag, and now it's time to reset and go again.

14. Carlton

Last Season: Won 7, Lost 15. 29 Quarters Won (6, 8, 5, 10). 1568 Points For (17th), 1978 Points Against (10th). Average Win Margin 16.1 (17th), Average Loss Margin 34.9 (12th)

Where are the goals going to come from for the Blues? Their defensive actions are pretty good (though not spectacular) and Bolton has a lot of work ahead of him to turn his side around to his way of thinking - which is why Bryce Gibbs tried to move to Adelaide, because he knew just how hard it's going to be for Carlton to reemerge as a powerhouse over the next few seasons. At least Bolton as the right idea, concentrating on defense first. With the sanctions on GWS for the Whitfield saga, the Blues will be the number one beneficiary of getting a key forward talent that they otherwise would not have been entitled to - which is exactly why the sanctions were put in place.

15. Richmond

Last Season: Won 8, Lost 14. 35 Quarters Won (7, 10, 9, 9). 1713 Points For (15th), 2155 Points Against (15th). Average Win Margin 22.4 (15th), Average Loss Margin 44.4 (14th)

Hardwick is just a dud coach - he apes the tactics of others without any form of understanding as to why he is doing what he is doing. When a side with this much talent manages to give up that many points in a season, it's got nothing to do with the players and everything to do with how they are being instructed to play. The Tigers style not only doesn't stack up in finals, it also is starting to get found out in the regular season. Yes, they had injuries, but even when those players came back into the side their performances didn't markedly improve - a sure sign that the coach has lost the players. Which is the main reason why Deledio moved to GWS. Add to this the fact that two of their wins came against a depleted Essendon side and they split their games against Collingwood while just barely scraping over the line against Carlton and 13th is exactly where they deserve to be.

16. Gold Coast

Last Season: Won 6, Lost 16. 32 Quarters Won (11, 6, 9, 6). 1778 Points For (13th), 2273 Points Against (16th). Average Win Margin 38.5 (9th), Average Loss Margin 45.4 (15th)

With so many players leaving over the past couple of years, and with a massive amount of injuries, Gold Coast is virtually starting from scratch all over again...only this time, they don't have a prime Gary Ablett Jnr to steer the ship when things go wrong. The Suns have become what the old Brisbane Bears were in Queensland, and that's not a good thing. Tom Lynch is a stud, they've got the nucleus of an exceptional side...but unless they stop bleeding players every single year they will never reach their true potential.

17. North Melbourne

Last Season: Won 12, Lost 10. 45 Quarters Won (13, 12, 9, 11). 1956 Points For (8th), 1959 Points Against (8th). Average Win Margin 29.6 (13th), Average Loss Margin 25.8 (6th)

North Melbourne needs to stockpile elite, match winning talent to go with their hardworking, grunt midfield...otherwise they will become what Stu was described as in The Hangover Part 2...chok. "Chok is soft white rice in lukewarm water. It has no taste. We feed it small babies and very old people. It is nourishment that everyone can digest."

The world needs chok, just as the world needs teams like North Melbourne.

18. Brisbane

Last Season: Won 3, Lost 19. 17 Quarters Won (4, 4, 4, 5). 1770 Points For (14th), 2872 Points Against (18th). Average Win Margin 18 (16th), Average Loss Margin 60.8 (18th)

If Gold Coast are the Bears, Brisbane are Fitzroy in their last season. Lepptisch was completely out of his depth as a coach, and it's hoped that Fagan will start to concentrate on what really matters - defense - and stop them getting blown away by such huge margins. They are where Melbourne was before Roos came along, but with less talent across the board due to players leaving, and it will take an awful lot of things to go wrong for any other side for them to replace the Lions at the bottom of the ladder.

Nice write up.

I have West Coast, Saints and Melbourne all finishing higher than Collingwood and Port.

 

[Bokonon_]

Nice write up.

I have West Coast, Saints and Melbourne all finishing higher than Collingwood and Port.

It is a good write up. Objectivity for Port supporters goes against their DNA, you've got to make allowances.

 

[JimmyBeerCans]

It is a good write up. Objectivity for Port supporters goes against their DNA, you've got to make allowances.

As it does with Adelaide/GWS supporters.. happy new year

 

[Bokonon_]

As it does with Adelaide/GWS supporters.. happy new year

Happy new year to you as well. I didn't actually think it was critical to say you guys are dedicated and one eyed. The write up was well thought out analysis.
I left the precious bit out, but now you mention it...

 

[JimmyBeerCans]

Happy new year to you as well. I didn't actually think it was critical to say you guys are dedicated and one eyed. The write up was well thought out analysis.
I left the precious bit out, but now you mention it...

Hey the roof blew off the bay the other night did ya hear

 

[Janus]

You misunderstand me.

I have no issue with you saying we'll be ninth. It's a reasonable conclusion to draw. But you said we were mediocre in every worthwhile stat. You were wrong. We were 8th for marks inside 50, 4th for uncontested possessions (the premiers were first), and 5th for clearances. To say we were "mediocre in every significant stat" is unadulterated rubbish.

You also said you couldn't believe some people were tipping us for finals. You then proceeded to have us ninth

Worthwhile stats are the following - points allowed, points conceded. How good you are at scoring, how good you are at defending. The others are just stocking stuffers for analysts because unless they are married with the two I mention, what good are they? No team won a game based on how great they were at uncontested possessions.

You can be 8th for marks inside 50, but if you concede just as many marks per game and therefore opposition scores, what's the point?

You can be 4th for uncontested possessions, but if most of them occur in your back half, what's the point?

And you can be 5th for clearances, but again I ask, if you can't defend across the ground to prevent the opposition from scoring, what's the point?

I think Melbourne is going to be great and will easily make finals in 2018. I have you 9th because I just think you should take one more year to stock up on that middling first round talent that can play roles across the ground and not try to be the star. But I can't believe people are tipping you so readily for finals when you had the 11th best defense in the league with your full kit on the park.

 

[Janus]

Nice write up.

I have West Coast, Saints and Melbourne all finishing higher than Collingwood and Port.

 

[Iamcarlton]

Well,there you go,I'm not sure the quality of the comments on the last couple of pages has been overly great lol.
I thought the Carlton supporters were ridiculous counting kids yet to debut as unquestionable guns and certain ten year players that are guaranteed to succeed but it looks like the Saints have taken to whole new level. How they can start including players from other clubs who aren't even on their list yet as future players has taken the BF,my teams better than yours because I said so,to a entirely new level that surely will never again be matched.

Clubs fortunes are sometimes defined by just 1 or 2 draft and trade periods . Cant speak for St Kilda but as a Carlton supporter there is a strong belief that our last 2 drafts- this years included are a big stepping stone for future success for our club . A lot of people yes do rate players before theyve played a game but theyve also most likely seen quite a bit of those players performing at underage level and may just be a little more qualified than yourself to make such assesments who knows. When peoples teams have been starved of success it is a natural occurence to get a little ahead of ourselves as we all love our clubs and want success for our club badly . You call it ridiculous i call it having a love for your club and wanting the best for our clubs . I guess its much easier to make statements such as youve made straight after a drought breaking premiership . Tables have turned havent they .. Bullies 4B2B

 

[Trav 20]

Worthwhile stats are the following - points allowed, points conceded. How good you are at scoring, how good you are at defending. The others are just stocking stuffers for analysts because unless they are married with the two I mention, what good are they? No team won a game based on how great they were at uncontested possessions.

You can be 8th for marks inside 50, but if you concede just as many marks per game and therefore opposition scores, what's the point?

You can be 4th for uncontested possessions, but if most of them occur in your back half, what's the point?

And you can be 5th for clearances, but again I ask, if you can't defend across the ground to prevent the opposition from scoring, what's the point?

I think Melbourne is going to be great and will easily make finals in 2018. I have you 9th because I just think you should take one more year to stock up on that middling first round talent that can play roles across the ground and not try to be the star. But I can't believe people are tipping you so readily for finals when you had the 11th best defense in the league with your full kit on the park.

You were the one who brought up stats as a metric; and when challenged, because you're wrong, you say they're not important anyway.

As I said, you're very amusing.