Autopsy AFL 2024 Round 6 - Blues v Giants Sat April 20th 4:35pm AEST (Marvel)

Who will win and by how much?

  • Blues by a goal or less

    Votes: 6 9.5%

  • Giants by a goal or less

    Votes: 3 4.8%

  • Blues by 7 - 20

    Votes: 10 15.9%

  • Giants by 7 - 20

    Votes: 28 44.4%

  • Blues by a lot

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Giants by a lot

    Votes: 13 20.6%

  • Draw

    Votes: 3 4.8%
  • Total voters
    63
  • Poll closed .

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Giant Pete said:
Blues have two of the best key forwards, two of the best mids, and one of the best key backs. Playing at home… not sure why Blues fans are not backing them in.
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The concern is not enough run. Losing Saad is big in that regard, and lacking Cerra further amplifies that. Our team is really unbalanced right now, despite these key players.
 
Giant Pete said:
Blues have two of the best key forwards, two of the best mids, and one of the best key backs. Playing at home… not sure why Blues fans are not backing them in.
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Because the only way we might win with our current outs is turning it into an all out dour slog. Playing at Marvel under the roof doesn't allow for that as it's far too easy to move the ball with the quick deck.

Too many runners and good ball users out to go toe to toe with GWS at the moment imo.
 
Giant Pete said:
Blues have two of the best key forwards, two of the best mids, and one of the best key backs. Playing at home… not sure why Blues fans are not backing them in.
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As with any team in competition - its not all about talent but players knowing their roles very well within a system and we have 10 of them out.
 
Bagger72 said:
As with any team in competition - its not all about talent but players knowing their roles very well within a system and we have 10 of them out.
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It's pointless being this defeatist - for a home game especially. There is no Carlton underdog narrative. The odds are even and if Carlton lose it's because their selected 23 don't perform.

Cerra out is big but Walsh in is still bigger. Cripps, Walsh, Hewett, Kennedy is a strong midfield rotation. With capable wingers too.

Gov out is a blow but it was worse playing without Weitering, let's be honest. Sides can usually cover one KPP much like one gun midfielder - but not more.

So that leaves us with Saad (huge loss), Martin (significant), Motlop (meh), Silvagni (meh), Marchbank and Cunningham. After the first two it's mostly fringe players.

GWS have Cogs (better than Cerra), Cumming, Taylor and Ward out. A gun midfielder, the best defender in the comp, one of their best rebounders and a contested veteran midfielder.
 
Mr Meow said:
It's pointless being this defeatist
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It's more not confident given the outs.

Anything can happen but not many are nailing the colours of a confident tip to the mast.
 

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Mr Meow said:
Cripps and Walsh delivering it to Curnow and McKay, minus Taylor. The obituaries can hold on a minute.
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What obituaries? Firstly, Taylor and Coniglio are massive outs for the Giants - no one is saying otherwise. Ward played VFL on the weekend so I expect him to play.

But on your points about Carlton you have fallen into the trap that a lot of people do when they discuss the injuries of a team they don't support. And that is whether you rate the player or not is insignificant - it is all about where they sit in the pecking order within the team they play for. Saad, McGovern, Docherty and Cerra are all good players and I don't think many would disagree. Opposition fans may not think much of Motlop or Martin but they are our best small and mid-sized forward respectively. So that is why they are significant.

And then it becomes about context. Gov being out would not be as bad if we had Marchbank available but he is also out. So then we will likely have to use Young who would probably be the 5th ranked tall defender on our list. You look at Martin out and think well who can replace that - maybe Cuningham or Silvagni? No because they are out also. Look at Motlop and that out would not be as bad if we had Fogarty available but he is also out.

Looking at injuries in isolation is never going to give you the full sense of their impact on the team. These injuries are not an excuse for anything but they definitely make it harder to compete against the best teams which we come up against over the next 5 weeks.
 
carlton_99 said:
What obituaries? Firstly, Taylor and Coniglio are massive outs for the Giants - no one is saying otherwise. Ward played VFL on the weekend so I expect him to play.

But on your points about Carlton you have fallen into the trap that a lot of people do when they discuss the injuries of a team they don't support. And that is whether you rate the player or not is insignificant - it is all about where they sit in the pecking order within the team they play for. Saad, McGovern, Docherty and Cerra are all good players and I don't think many would disagree. Opposition fans may not think much of Motlop or Martin but they are our best small and mid-sized forward respectively. So that is why they are significant.

And then it becomes about context. Gov being out would not be as bad if we had Marchbank available but he is also out. So then we will likely have to use Young who would probably be the 5th ranked tall defender on our list. You look at Martin out and think well who can replace that - maybe Cuningham or Silvagni? No because they are out also. Look at Motlop and that out would not be as bad if we had Fogarty available but he is also out.

Looking at injuries in isolation is never going to give you the full sense of their impact on the team. These injuries are not an excuse for anything but they definitely make it harder to compete against the best teams which we come up against over the next 5 weeks.
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I don't doubt the effect that an injury accumulation can have even if it involves role players or depth.

But good sides in good form can account for that. What they can't account for is if you had both Curnow and McKay out, or if you added Walsh to Cerra, or if Weitering joined Gov on the sidelines.

Weaker Carlton line ups last year put up some great performances. The form issues started before the absences piled up.

GWS themselves haven't been as imperious as people think. They and Carlton last week suffered badly from multiple in-game injuries to good platers, which are the one thing that can really hammer a team.

But I do accept the cascading effect that Gov out, with no Marchbank etc as backup, leaves on the Blues. I do think the Giants loss of Taylor against the twin towers balances things out though. He's so important.
 
Mr Meow said:
Weaker Carlton line ups last year put up some great performances.
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No doubt Carlton can still put up a very strong performance but the timing of all these absences are just horrible. If you want to be a contender at the end of the year we know top 4 is pretty much a must. We play five teams in a row that are going to be top-4 contenders - it is obviously still very early in the season but all of these games could be seen as "8-point games" for the Blues.
 
carlton_99 said:
No doubt Carlton can still put up a very strong performance but the timing of all these absences are just horrible. If you want to be a contender at the end of the year we know top 4 is pretty much a must. We play five teams in a row that are going to be top-4 contenders - it is obviously still very early in the season but all of these games could be seen as "8-point games" for the Blues.
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Good point.

I'd be shocked if Carlton didn't bounce back this week. That could still result in a close loss if GWS are at their best but if the Giants are off I think the Blues will get them.

I'm tipping Carlton by a couple of goals.
 
Art Vandelay_ said:
Giants need to win this. Blues fans have the arrogance of B2B premiers having won nothing.
They badly need humbling.
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It's just one of those vicious cycles. Blues fans cop it for 20+ years for being terrible, some Blues fans focus on giving back 20+ years of pent up frustration back to those who were giving them crap once the team starts winning more.

Most sane Blues fans know that we've been barely scratching out wins while playing below our best and most don't think that we should be bookies faves for this game.

If you think the loud ones are acting like B2B prems now, you better go into hibernation if that actually happens.
 
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