Preview Adelaide v Port Adelaide - 4.10 Sunday 3rd May @ Adelaide Oval

[Adam Marrett23]

Bring our 1st quarter form from the weekend and we win. Western Bulldogs play a similar brand to us and they tore the Crows apart. Expecting a fired up Crows outfit this week, but we know what to expect Walsh showed us their A game in the NAB Challenge so we know what's coming. If we get to 3-2 from our tough start I will be wrapt.

 

[70sDinosaur]

Hawthorn beat WB by 70 and then WB beat Adelaide by 57. We beat Hawthorn by 8.

I can do the maths.

We'll win by 135.

That's how it works, right?

 

[finbarr]

We should win, and could possibly win well but it will depend entirely on how the game unfolds.

Adelaide have a very good midfield, strong contested ball winners (will probably get even stronger if Crouch comes back in), a very good ruckman, and some explosive talents as well. Their forward line when up and about is very dangerous with both strength in the air and skilful fast ground players. This is Adelaide when allowed to play how they want to play. They are good when that happens.

Adelaide use the most 'squeezing' of press defenses. If you can't break that down then the above is what you are against.

If you can break open the press, open up the game, then you expose a largely inexperienced, fragile defense. Expose the defense, expose the gameplan, then you expose a few guys who play okish when things are going well. When things aren't going so well those same guys are barely SANFL standard.

If we try and beat the press through precise handball and short kicking I think that may well play right in to their hands. I'd like to see us try and play over the press. A quick give followed by a longer kick. They press up so high that if you're able to move the ball on fast and cover ground at the same time it opens them up massively at the back.

Their defense simply can't match it with our attack. That's where the game needs to be played.

They probably get us as a contested ball winning side, we get them as a running, fast-break side. We need to get the game flowing on our terms.

If we try and fling 4, 5, 6 short handballs all over the place working through a cluster of Crows players, or hit up 15m short kicks through their press it plays in to what they want. Also, it makes it a much tougher, less space game. They usually do well if that type of environment. If the game is played in their front half they win. They'll dine out on the pressure, their average players suddenly become very good players and we'll struggle. We need to get Walsh to spread his press out, make it not so squashy. We do that, we in, and comfortably too.

Composure, and making sure the next contest is 40-50m away from the previous one is how we'd want the game played. They'll be looking to make it a contest every 5-10m. They'll want it slow, hard and tough. we need to make it open, fast and tougher. We need to actively be aggressive all game. They have a few players who grow an extra leg when they think it's safe to do so. Need to knock those ones on the head early. Constant chatter, constant harassment, constant niggle. They really have a few soft players who go hiding when it's tough, but those exact same players can be dangerous when they think it's safe to be.

Go over it this week, not through it. Open them up, spread them wide, create room. They can't match us in that type of game, and they know it too.

Isolate and expose - don't let them collectively play. Their averageness hides well all bunched up.

I really needed to read a measured, sensible analysis after reading Janus's post. Thank you.

 

[I Dont Care]

Banner?

 

[70sDinosaur]

Port supporters should be the last to buy into the cult of this slow witted hayseed.

He's a man as big as all Texas but with a brain the size of Delaware.

 

[Willsy10]

Not going to be easy, the crows will come out firing after last weekends effort. I think we should win but it might take 2-3 quarters to break them. Would like to see us put together a 4 quarter effort this week, something we haven't really done yet this year.

 

[Janus]

I really needed to read a measured, sensible analysis after reading Janus's post. Thank you.

I post the why, never the how

 

[LFC2010]

Win the clearances. We get our midfielders first use of the ball then we win the game.

I'd have Ryder, Schulz and Westhoff in the 50 to start, try and stretch their defence.

All we need to do is win the "ground ball" to beat this mob.
With Boak and Hartlett bot finding form last week I think this won't be an issue.

 

[Coobk001]

Battle of the Gameplans

This is going to be very interesting, Walsh vs Hinkley. Adelaide have played a very similar gameplan to Port Adelaide so far this season. They are emphasising organised pressure on the ball carrier, by organised I mean at the contest itself, but moreso up the ground. This is mostly achieved by numbers behind the ball, sweating on a turnover due to a long kick. They also have runners behind the ball, and look to create a chain of possession. Where they differ from us is that they take a lot more long options, whereas we look short with quick kicks and handballs. They also look up the corridor, “artificially widening” the ground as we do. However, they were exposed by quick ball movement last weekend against the Bulldogs, something that we can also exploit. Up forward they have looked very potent, particularly the big Texan. Funnily enough, a lot of the noise coming from the Crows plan is the lack of a Plan B, sounding eerily similar to the beginning of the Hinkley reign. What this says to me is, we need to take our opportunities early, and more importantly, we need to kill off Adelaide’s gameplan. Pick a part their spare man, by working it past him, or kicking it over him. 2 way run, if we turn the ball over, don’t let them use the corridor, and limit their kicks long to a leading target. They’re still adjusting to a new gameplan, and they particularly struggle to maintain it when under pressure. We need to create pressure on the ball carrier.

What Adelaide are doing is playing an incredibly direct style of footy, utilising their status as the number 1 clearance team and then playing 'ultra-flood' football.

The crows were in the top couple last year for clearance differential and they are again this year. With that sort of dominance, and one of the best rucks in the league, they manage to get the ball and pump it forward quickly. From there they press all their numbers up immediately. This isn't totally new, but the way the crows are applying pressure isn't through speed or effort, it is through sheer weight of numbers in one part of the ground. This is also interestingly the way they defend as well. They send all their players back into the defensive 50, wait till they turn it over and then try and work it through the zone, leaving a Pagan's paddock situation for Walker and Betts.

We saw all this first hand against them in the preseason when the ball lived in our 50 in the 3rd quarter, we couldn't score due to their epic flooding and then after hitting us on the rebound a couple times they used their clearance dominance to get a few cheapies, mixed with the rebound goals they'd already gotten.


What the crows haven't really seen yet is a side that can take it up to them in the clearances. The Demons smashed them in the 1st quarter of that game and it put the weak crows defence under huge pressure. We need to be able to do this as well. If we can break even or win the clearances with our fwd line Vs their very weak defence we will definitely kick a score.

The next key is the crows hadn't until this weekend met a team who moved the ball with precision and speed of handball through their flood's and broke their system down. The bulldogs were able to rebound very quickly through shallow F50 entries, but also when the crows got it deep the Bulldogs composure and ability to move it by handball and then kick, through and then past their zone opened the whole ground up. Collingwood were horribly fumbly and poor with their disposal, the Kangas just weren't prepared and looked the same and then when Melb were put under pressure their skills faultered. So given the Bulldogs were able to continue to perform when under pressure, hopefully this bodes well for us and our intense last few weeks as our skills have held up under the greatest pressure and hopefully we too like the Bulldogs can break through this 'choking' style of defence and footy the crows will employ, and break the game open into the fast flowing game we will want.

 

[Coobk001]

We should win, and could possibly win well but it will depend entirely on how the game unfolds.

Adelaide have a very good midfield, strong contested ball winners (will probably get even stronger if Crouch comes back in), a very good ruckman, and some explosive talents as well. Their forward line when up and about is very dangerous with both strength in the air and skilful fast ground players. This is Adelaide when allowed to play how they want to play. They are good when that happens.

Adelaide use the most 'squeezing' of press defenses. If you can't break that down then the above is what you are against.

If you can break open the press, open up the game, then you expose a largely inexperienced, fragile defense. Expose the defense, expose the gameplan, then you expose a few guys who play okish when things are going well. When things aren't going so well those same guys are barely SANFL standard.

If we try and beat the press through precise handball and short kicking I think that may well play right in to their hands. I'd like to see us try and play over the press. A quick give followed by a longer kick. They press up so high that if you're able to move the ball on fast and cover ground at the same time it opens them up massively at the back.

Their defense simply can't match it with our attack. That's where the game needs to be played.

They probably get us as a contested ball winning side, we get them as a running, fast-break side. We need to get the game flowing on our terms.

If we try and fling 4, 5, 6 short handballs all over the place working through a cluster of Crows players, or hit up 15m short kicks through their press it plays in to what they want. Also, it makes it a much tougher, less space game. They usually do well if that type of environment. If the game is played in their front half they win. They'll dine out on the pressure, their average players suddenly become very good players and we'll struggle. We need to get Walsh to spread his press out, make it not so squashy. We do that, we in, and comfortably too.

Composure, and making sure the next contest is 40-50m away from the previous one is how we'd want the game played. They'll be looking to make it a contest every 5-10m. They'll want it slow, hard and tough. we need to make it open, fast and tougher. We need to actively be aggressive all game. They have a few players who grow an extra leg when they think it's safe to do so. Need to knock those ones on the head early. Constant chatter, constant harassment, constant niggle. They really have a few soft players who go hiding when it's tough, but those exact same players can be dangerous when they think it's safe to be.

Go over it this week, not through it. Open them up, spread them wide, create room. They can't match us in that type of game, and they know it too.

Isolate and expose - don't let them collectively play. Their averageness hides well all bunched up.

Ooh, should have read this before I posted, instead I just replied to Janus, but I totally agree with you and this post echo's my sentiments above.

 

[Andre]

Adelaide's biggest strength is Jacobs. Adelaide's biggest weakness is sticking Eddie Betts in the ruck for his chop out wouldn't be any worse than who they currently use. Despite poor kicking until Trengove went down last Showdown and cost us ruck support and a KPD we were on track for a narrow victory. With Ryder we have the chop out for Lobbe and a player who can go down back if one of our KPD's goes down. Adelaide's biggest loss over the summer was Rutten. He was slowed down, but he still shits over any of their KPD's out there now, other than Talia.

Lobbe tired markedly in the third quarter, which then unsurprisingly was when the Hawks started to get on top. He should be better for the run this week. Given outside of Walker Adelaide lack decent KPF's I'd be inclined to let Trengove do the chop out for Lobbe in the first half, if Jacobs gets a rest, so Ryder can keep their defense stretched. If Jacobs isn't rested rotate Lobbe the first 20 minutes, then Ryder the rest of quarters to jump over him when he tires.

With Hoff, Ryder and Schulz we have the tall forward options. Whoever Talia goes to should play the decoy role and get away from the goal square. Their other main way out of defense is Smith. If he goes to Monfries I'd be tempted to have Monfries do a similar decoy job and drag Smith away from the contest. The rest of their defense outside those two is Spuddy McSpudsville.

 

[PowerKidd]

I honestly don't see how we can lose this game. We didn't have Trengove, Wingard, Ryder, Monfries in the NAB game either.

With Ryder, Westy and Schulz up forward I cannot see how they will get the better of us, if Robbie Gray comes back in and our mids are "on" and keep firing the ball to our forwards I can't see us losing this game.

Port by 40

 

[Alyx]

Ollie Wines isn't playing which means Patrick Dangerfield's jaw will remain intact which means he will tear the game apart which means he will tear us apart which means the Phil Walsh Revolution will continue while we unfold the tarps after our 119-point loss.

Edit: Also, bandwagoners.

 

[Seanybruz]

Tredders summed it up perfectly & didn't even add Gray, Polec & a number of others to the mix.

 

[MrMeaner]

My only concern, not having seen Adelaide play this season, is that their gameplan sounds like that which we struggled against in the Sydney games and the second half of the Hawthorn game.

 

[bringbackbucky]

Just got an email from Ticketmaster:

"Welcome to Ticketmaster Resale: a marketplace where tickets can be bought and resold by anyone. Ticket prices are set by the individual sellers. Ticketmaster Resale does not control the available inventory or pricing of any tickets listed on Ticketmaster Resale."

Anyone seen this before?

 

[DonDraper]

Just got an email from Ticketmaster:

"Welcome to Ticketmaster Resale: a marketplace where tickets can be bought and resold by anyone. Ticket prices are set by the individual sellers. Ticketmaster Resale does not control the available inventory or pricing of any tickets listed on Ticketmaster Resale."

Anyone seen this before?

Common place in International sports. Works well there. Managed to score some good priced great seats to Madison Square Garden when I was there to a sold out game.

 

[Macca19]

I honestly don't see how we can lose this game.

A lot of people said that about the 2nd showdown last year.

 

[DonDraper]

Tredders summed it up perfectly & didn't even add Gray, Polec & a number of others to the mix.

Jasper front and centre!

 

[DonDraper]

A lot of people said that about the 2nd showdown last year.

Been thinking this all week.

 

[Janus]

Ask yourself why Walsh believes it's so vital that they win the ground ball above all else. Once you work that out, you'll understand why they play the way they do. Hint: Walsh was around when we had Lade/Primus/Brogan in ruck and clearance kings like Francou and Burgoyne. He was also tactics coach during West Coasts 2005/2006 period.

Adelaide's clearance numbers are a direct result of their gamestyle. They don't flood to defend so much as get players around the ball to create stoppages so they can exploit their advantage with Jacobs if they cannot clear the ball straight away, and this happens all over the ground. When they do a long kick to a contested situation, the main role of the forwards is to make sure they either mark or kill the ball and the defence can push up to lock the ball into the forward area. It's why Walsh will continue to select a spud like Jenkins purely because his recovery after the contest is pretty good for a tall player. It's pretty much an alteration of the Sydney 2005/06 style - which surprise surprise, is what Walsh had to deal with at West Coast when he was there. Like I said, he's a parody of a senior coach and has never really had an original idea in his life. It really wouldn't surprise me to see Walker played on ball ala Pavlich at some stage during the year because of this aping of other coaches ideas.

Have a look at how the Bulldogs cut them up. It was with quick handballs to running players who broke the press and didn't allow Adelaide to create a contest. This is where Pittard, Broadbent, Polec, White and Krakouer will be so dangerous. When we first played Adelaide this year, we kept handballing to stationary players and played into their hands. The number one key is to be brave, constantly in motion and make their press move as well until it bends then cracks. If a quick kick is an option, take it, but I wouldn't be kicking in hope - they'll set up Smith, Talia and Brown a kick behind play and bomb it straight back in, just like Hawthorn did in the last quarter.

You get them to swivel their heads and turn back toward their goal, and you win, because they don't have any players with the speed or endurance necessary to run both ways for extended periods. It's a classic high line defence in association football without the threat of an offside. If they don't win the ground balls and lock it in, they can be cut to pieces.

Make them accountable for a man and pressure their kickers relentlessly until they are making unforced errors under perceived pressure, and we'll win big. Yes, their style is similar to a Fremantle/Sydney - but they aren't as good at it, as the Bulldogs showed.

 

[Jumbo]

After the insipid performance that the cows put in against the Doggies I fully expect them to come our firing on all cylinders, this will not be an easy game and they will be spurred on by their mediocre supporter base, I'm expecting the usual hard fought showdown contest and hoping our class prevails but it aint gunna be as easy as some are predicting.

 

[Andre]

A lot of people said that about the 2nd showdown last year.

So injuries and a laughably one sided umpiring display it is then.

 

[Janus]

After the insipid performance that the cows put in against the Doggies I fully expect them to come our firing on all cylinders, this will not be an easy game and they will be spurred on by their mediocre supporter base, I'm expecting the usual hard fought showdown contest and hoping our class prevails but it aint gunna be as easy as some are predicting.

No game is easy. It's a case of if we're both at 100% - which means ******* hard work - we'll win by a lot, purely because they are a work in progress as the Bulldogs showed. We're a better quality team then them and a premiership contender. They have about three years before they could say the same, especially when they are playing guys like Hartigan.

 

[Kingfish73]

Hope we don't even give them a sniff. We are due for a comfortable win. And this has the potential to be that game. We must blanket 3 players - Sloane, Betts and Jacobs. Yes its a showdown, but I feel Ken and the boys will have something to prove against Walsh. Play anywhere near like we did last week in first half, the frail crows heads will drop and it will be a massacre. But if we play no risk football, then it will be an ugly slog. Either way, we will win