2009 Melbourne Cup Thread
- Thread starter sethlad
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I don't have long priced tickets for anything. I just.. don't.. back horses for races months away regardless of the price, even if I think they're a good chance, despite being a fan (one of many) for at least a year now - so no-one can say that I'm talking out of my pocket.
Horses, especially those long-time earmarked for later staying races, second up, looking as though the run will only make him better just don't often do what he did.
He wouldn't be the first horse to win in early spring and not live up to expectations, nor would he be the first horse to be up and about over the shorter courses in late August/early September who is flat and not getting near it in 5 weeks+ time - wouldn't be the first and wouldn't be the last - but it's easier to pot a horse for races a month away than to back him in, and generally, in doing that, you're right more often than not.
I think in top class, it's still questionable if he'll run a mile and a half, let alone two, out strongly enough and it's a long way from winning a Craiglee to Cox Plate success - but he's in with a perfectly low Cups weight now, he puts himself into the race, is tough, can stay, is a lot stronger physically this time in, is in the right stable and does have a sprint, now a WFA winner plus he loves Headquarters.
It's a lovely looking profile and it is spring-time - the time for big calls, hype, bubbles growing or inevitably bursting. There are a fair few ticks in the right columns to suggest that they hype/excitement at this stage of spring is justified, at least moreso imo than those on Weekend Hussler and Cups/Cox last year.
Aaaanyhoo, that's enough of that, what will be, will be. I'll be cheering for him anyway.
Cumani sounds like he's definitely bringing out a couple now Cima De Triomphe and Balsatico. The latter will run in the Geelong Cup ala Bauer. Cima De Triomphe will run in the Caulfield Cup hopefully en route to a Melbourne Cup start.
Horses, especially those long-time earmarked for later staying races, second up, looking as though the run will only make him better just don't often do what he did.
He wouldn't be the first horse to win in early spring and not live up to expectations, nor would he be the first horse to be up and about over the shorter courses in late August/early September who is flat and not getting near it in 5 weeks+ time - wouldn't be the first and wouldn't be the last - but it's easier to pot a horse for races a month away than to back him in, and generally, in doing that, you're right more often than not.
I think in top class, it's still questionable if he'll run a mile and a half, let alone two, out strongly enough and it's a long way from winning a Craiglee to Cox Plate success - but he's in with a perfectly low Cups weight now, he puts himself into the race, is tough, can stay, is a lot stronger physically this time in, is in the right stable and does have a sprint, now a WFA winner plus he loves Headquarters.
It's a lovely looking profile and it is spring-time - the time for big calls, hype, bubbles growing or inevitably bursting. There are a fair few ticks in the right columns to suggest that they hype/excitement at this stage of spring is justified, at least moreso imo than those on Weekend Hussler and Cups/Cox last year.
Aaaanyhoo, that's enough of that, what will be, will be. I'll be cheering for him anyway.
Cumani sounds like he's definitely bringing out a couple now Cima De Triomphe and Balsatico. The latter will run in the Geelong Cup ala Bauer. Cima De Triomphe will run in the Caulfield Cup hopefully en route to a Melbourne Cup start.
- Thread starter
- #78
He wouldn't be the first horse to win in early spring and not live up to expectations, nor would he be the first horse to be up and about over the shorter courses in late August/early September who is flat and not getting near it in 5 weeks+ time - wouldn't be the first and wouldn't be the last - but it's easier to pot a horse for races a month away than to back him in, and generally, in doing that, you're right more often than not.
Wasnt potting him,havent potted him & wont be potting him.
I appreciate everyone's opinions & inside info,its great to hear that his trainer has faith in his potential,simply making the point that he's not quite there yet.
Cumani sounds like he's definitely bringing out a couple now Cima De Triomphe and Balsatico. The latter will run in the Geelong Cup ala Bauer. Cima De Triomphe will run in the Caulfield Cup hopefully en route to a Melbourne Cup start.
Where was this declared,I hope youre right as I do have CDT in early doubles
seth
Wasnt potting him,havent potted him & wont be potting him.
I appreciate everyone's opinions & inside info,its great to hear that his trainer has faith in his potential,simply making the point that he's not quite there yet.
Cumani sounds like he's definitely bringing out a couple now Cima De Triomphe and Balsatico. The latter will run in the Geelong Cup ala Bauer. Cima De Triomphe will run in the Caulfield Cup hopefully en route to a Melbourne Cup start.
Where was this declared,I hope youre right as I do have CDT in early doubles
seth
With all due respects Seth, those quotes you have highlighted and attributed to me about Vigor, are not my words, but those of the horse's trainer and jockey, who are IMHO in a much better position to pass judgement on the horse than any of us.
I was hoping by posting their comments, I could give BF contributors a little insight into the thoughts of some of the major Spring players.......maybe its my bad, if you regard them as too much over the top for your liking.
As a punter of over some 40 yrs experience, I have seen plenty of horses better than Vigor that have not come up to expectations, and I would be the very first one to concede that long range plans can easily go astray at this time of the year, for any number of uncontrollable and unpredictable reasons.
True, I have backed Vigor to win all the 3 majors and coupled him up some of the other main chances, but the reality is that my bets aren't going to make the horse go faster or slower.
....in this case, rightly or wrongly, I have followed the opinion of the trainer.
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- #80
Its all good TB,as I said:
"I appreciate everyones's opinions & inside info",Im sure others do too.Anyone who read the post realises they were Danny's quotes.
I have no slow on Vigor,he's been a Punting Board fave for quite a while
I dont know Danny O'Brien,it seems a few here do either personally or through friends.Im sure he's a ripping guy & his placement of the horse has clearly been exceptional to this point.
I was just surprised that he hadnt openly expressed his opinion on Vigor before,do trainers believe that the handicapper takes into account their opinion when assessing Cup weights?
seth
Like I keep saying, it's very hard to be winning races this early in the spring and still be winning them by the time the Big 3 roll around - very few horses can do it, that in itself is more than enough reason to knock Vigor, you've got a stack of history on your side.
There is a big, underrated difference between Flemington and Caulfield, so he's not even a sure thing going into the Underwood.. but his effort in the Craiglee was as good as Weekend Husslers win in an easier edition last year (and one of the best in recent memory) imo, importantly he's already proven over longer distances and he's a G2 WFA winner with 51kg in the Cup, is a year older and more seasoned than the boom 4yo's which at this time of the year in invaluable - so for once, I think, the hype over a Craiglee winner at this stage of the season is justified.
But that doesn't win him races - the tasks will only be getting tougher from here on in and he has to keep improving and taking a step up. Considering his age, trainer, preference for longer trips and seeming to me to be a horse who naturally gets better with racing, I wouldn't be willing to say that he couldn't.
I don't really take notice of odds for races weeks/months away when following a horse, but that said, no-one has missed his runs or improvement and the boom on him has swollen in the past month to rather... interesting... proportions. A long, tough spring has a habit of bursting more bubbles than it protects.
Btw, Typhoon Tracy's run was just as good. It's funny though - if she'd got the result by a nose, we'd all be saying that she beat nothing, the 'good' horses coming out of the Liston all finishing a mileback and she only really beat a bunch of handicappers - right or wrong, the difference of a nose and different expectations of certain horses has changed the way many will look at a race :/
As for Cima De Triomphe, just reporting what I've heard off another forum, and the guy who posted it seems to be generally spot on with the news and do remember reading that Cumani was going to decide over last weekend what the chances of him coming here would be, so I'm inclined to believe that as of right now those are definitely the plans.
There is a big, underrated difference between Flemington and Caulfield, so he's not even a sure thing going into the Underwood.. but his effort in the Craiglee was as good as Weekend Husslers win in an easier edition last year (and one of the best in recent memory) imo, importantly he's already proven over longer distances and he's a G2 WFA winner with 51kg in the Cup, is a year older and more seasoned than the boom 4yo's which at this time of the year in invaluable - so for once, I think, the hype over a Craiglee winner at this stage of the season is justified.
But that doesn't win him races - the tasks will only be getting tougher from here on in and he has to keep improving and taking a step up. Considering his age, trainer, preference for longer trips and seeming to me to be a horse who naturally gets better with racing, I wouldn't be willing to say that he couldn't.
I don't really take notice of odds for races weeks/months away when following a horse, but that said, no-one has missed his runs or improvement and the boom on him has swollen in the past month to rather... interesting... proportions. A long, tough spring has a habit of bursting more bubbles than it protects.
Btw, Typhoon Tracy's run was just as good. It's funny though - if she'd got the result by a nose, we'd all be saying that she beat nothing, the 'good' horses coming out of the Liston all finishing a mileback and she only really beat a bunch of handicappers - right or wrong, the difference of a nose and different expectations of certain horses has changed the way many will look at a race :/
As for Cima De Triomphe, just reporting what I've heard off another forum, and the guy who posted it seems to be generally spot on with the news and do remember reading that Cumani was going to decide over last weekend what the chances of him coming here would be, so I'm inclined to believe that as of right now those are definitely the plans.
Like most of the features betting Vigor's terrible unders now...but if you're one of the ones who got on early then you should be feeling pretty happy [yeah, long way to go]...I know I am !
Couple of aspects IMO to assessing the early wfa form...you can tend to get the winter types who are rock hard fit and go well [esp when the tracks are wet] - you get the types who are promising but the trainer has them going early [be it to pick up pmoney or qualify] - then you have the genuine class horses who are winning early.
Where Vigor fits I don't know, he's a touch of the promising type going early to qualify [like Speed Gifted]...got to remember with the qualifying rules these days they reward in form horses [that win the right qualifying races] as opposed to getting in purely on the old clauses. So there's a benefit to being able to win a race early as Vigor has done...can he still be going well when the carnival is really cracking? That's the question.
Re the Cumani story that was in Mondays papers...though I haven't seen it anywhere on the net.
Couple of aspects IMO to assessing the early wfa form...you can tend to get the winter types who are rock hard fit and go well [esp when the tracks are wet] - you get the types who are promising but the trainer has them going early [be it to pick up pmoney or qualify] - then you have the genuine class horses who are winning early.
Where Vigor fits I don't know, he's a touch of the promising type going early to qualify [like Speed Gifted]...got to remember with the qualifying rules these days they reward in form horses [that win the right qualifying races] as opposed to getting in purely on the old clauses. So there's a benefit to being able to win a race early as Vigor has done...can he still be going well when the carnival is really cracking? That's the question.
Re the Cumani story that was in Mondays papers...though I haven't seen it anywhere on the net.
- Thread starter
- #83
Re: 2009 Melbourne Cup Thread-1st acceptances
There are 17 internationals left in the Great Race after 1st acceptances today.
Godolphin:Kirklees,Eastern Anthem,Crime Scene & Sugar Ray
Aidan:Age Of Aquarius,Changingoftheguard & Johann Zoffany
Dermott
rofound Beauty,Ghimaar & Directa King
Luca:Cima De Triomphe, Basaltico
Others:Black Mamba, Mourilyan, Jolie's Shinju, Waringah & Deutschland
Godolphin say Kirklees is a definite starter at Caulfield,they think he's got too much weight at Flemington & he's basically a 2000m horse.
Eastern Anthem ran unplaced in Yeat's Gold Cup (4000m) but he had previously won the Sheema Classic on Dubai World Cup night beating home Purple Moon so he has some class.
Age Of Aquarius & Changingoftheguard are both running in the St Leger Sat night & are heavily fancied
Cima De Triomphe has form around superstar Sea The Stars & last start ran ok in the Arlington Million so should be competitive.
Basaltico was scratched from the Ebor as the stable didnt think he was good enough so not sure about him
Waringah & Deutschland both ran ok but clearly finished behind Changingoftheguard in the Ebor
Profound Beauty is 2nd fave behind Yeats in Sat nights Irish St Leger
seth
There are 17 internationals left in the Great Race after 1st acceptances today.
Godolphin:Kirklees,Eastern Anthem,Crime Scene & Sugar Ray
Aidan:Age Of Aquarius,Changingoftheguard & Johann Zoffany
Dermott
rofound Beauty,Ghimaar & Directa KingLuca:Cima De Triomphe, Basaltico
Others:Black Mamba, Mourilyan, Jolie's Shinju, Waringah & Deutschland
Godolphin say Kirklees is a definite starter at Caulfield,they think he's got too much weight at Flemington & he's basically a 2000m horse.
Eastern Anthem ran unplaced in Yeat's Gold Cup (4000m) but he had previously won the Sheema Classic on Dubai World Cup night beating home Purple Moon so he has some class.
Age Of Aquarius & Changingoftheguard are both running in the St Leger Sat night & are heavily fancied
Cima De Triomphe has form around superstar Sea The Stars & last start ran ok in the Arlington Million so should be competitive.
Basaltico was scratched from the Ebor as the stable didnt think he was good enough so not sure about him
Waringah & Deutschland both ran ok but clearly finished behind Changingoftheguard in the Ebor
Profound Beauty is 2nd fave behind Yeats in Sat nights Irish St Leger
seth
- Banned
- #84
Nom De Jeu didn't accept. Spring might be over for him.
Looks like a few Aussie reportshave jumped the gun a litte re: Cima De Triomphe + The Melbourne Cup, concerns mainly over the distance..
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Patrick Barbe, racing manager for Cima De Triomphe's owner Teruya Yoshida, said: "It is not yet finalised 100%. I believe he has to enter quarantine before next Thursday, but at the moment Mr Cumani and Mr Yoshida are discussing it. If he did not go to Melbourne, he would run in the Arc de Triomphe."
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Patrick Barbe, racing manager for Cima De Triomphe's owner Teruya Yoshida, said: "It is not yet finalised 100%. I believe he has to enter quarantine before next Thursday, but at the moment Mr Cumani and Mr Yoshida are discussing it. If he did not go to Melbourne, he would run in the Arc de Triomphe."
- Thread starter
- #86
Luca has confirmed Cima De Triomphe for the C Cup & Basaltico for Flemington via Geelong.
CDT's Arlington Million 4th is freely available on Youtube for anyone keen to see the grey in action,also his owner's brother raced 2006 champ Delta Blues.
Heard that it also very unlikely that Francesca will be making the trip.....
seth
CDT's Arlington Million 4th is freely available on Youtube for anyone keen to see the grey in action,also his owner's brother raced 2006 champ Delta Blues.
Heard that it also very unlikely that Francesca will be making the trip.....
seth
- Thread starter
- #87
Re: 2009 Melbourne Cup Thread-1st acceptances
All four are in quarantine,Eastern Anthem is the only one left in the Melbourne Cup but is not in the CC.
Crime Scene (TF 114) is still in the Cox Plate with Kirklees (TF 123+)
Sugar Ray is only in the CC (TF108)
seth
All four are in quarantine,Eastern Anthem is the only one left in the Melbourne Cup but is not in the CC.
Crime Scene (TF 114) is still in the Cox Plate with Kirklees (TF 123+)
Sugar Ray is only in the CC (TF108)
seth
OK no problem Seth and as you say every one is entitled to their opinion.
I think Danny's strategy in not spruiking up Vigor pre spring was more aimed at getting a price for a horse, rather protecting him from the handicapper. He helped manage that by running an unlucky 3rd 1st up and not winning.
I spoke to my well connected mate recently and he said that there is still a possiblity that Vigor may bypass the Caulfield Cup and go onto the Cox Plate instead, on his way to the Melbourne Cup. The main privso for this change of plan would be if he proved himself at WFA by winning both Underwood and Turnbull. Danny's reasoning is that he thinks that the Cox Plate may be less taxing than the C. Cup. because of the shorter distance.
He seems fairly sure that Danny wouldn't run Vigor in the all the three races.
That's the worst news I've heard all week!Heard that it also very unlikely that Francesca will be making the trip.....
Outside of my missus, Francesca would have to be my dream girl. Rich, loves her horses, great personality and a stunner to boot.
- Jul 7, 2003
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look at you all jump on the wagon of my boy.
Got him at good odds in all 3 majors.
Got him at good odds in all 3 majors.
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- #91
Wont win any of them, calling it now.
This years Littorio.
This years Littorio.
- Thread starter
- #92
Re: 2009 Melbourne Cup Thread-1st acceptances
Age Of Aquarius is not running in the St Leger tonight,
"We were not 100% happy with him after his canter this morning & decided not to declare him"
What this means for Melbourne is anyones guess,Changingoftheguard is 2nd favourite while Profound Beauty is clashing with Yeats in the Irish St Leger
The UK race is midnight & the Irish version is at 12.20am
seth
Age Of Aquarius is not running in the St Leger tonight,
"We were not 100% happy with him after his canter this morning & decided not to declare him"
What this means for Melbourne is anyones guess,Changingoftheguard is 2nd favourite while Profound Beauty is clashing with Yeats in the Irish St Leger
The UK race is midnight & the Irish version is at 12.20am
seth
- Banned
- #93
Might as well leave changingoftheguard in pommyland, he would get smashed down here.
About to watch Profound Beauty now.
About to watch Profound Beauty now.
- Banned
- #94
She ran ok, ran fourth i think.
Hopefully she is still coming down, would give it a good shake.
Hopefully she is still coming down, would give it a good shake.
- Thread starter
- #95
Not really sure that told us much,Changingoftheguard raced a lot closer than in the Ebor but didnt show the same finishing speed....
wasnt horrible but we'll see what they do now
Profound Beauty clearly didnt handle the wet track,travelled well but as soon as the pressure went on she paddled.
A little surprised she ran,all week Dermott said she wouldnt run if it was heavy?
seth
wasnt horrible but we'll see what they do now
Profound Beauty clearly didnt handle the wet track,travelled well but as soon as the pressure went on she paddled.
A little surprised she ran,all week Dermott said she wouldnt run if it was heavy?
seth
- Thread starter
- #96
As mentioned in the Spring thread,clients of the Hayes stable have purchased Changingoftheguard,subject to vets.
Will be on the plane but reportedly set for 2010,hard to believe they'd pass up the chance to run this year with that weight?
No update on Profound Beauty but you'd expect her to arrive,all being well.
Luca's 2,Basaltico & Cima De Triomphe arrive GF day
Godolphin now talking up Kirklees as their Cox Plate horse,his best form is clearly around the 2000m
seth
Will be on the plane but reportedly set for 2010,hard to believe they'd pass up the chance to run this year with that weight?
No update on Profound Beauty but you'd expect her to arrive,all being well.
Luca's 2,Basaltico & Cima De Triomphe arrive GF day
Godolphin now talking up Kirklees as their Cox Plate horse,his best form is clearly around the 2000m
seth
- Nov 24, 2007
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Just having a look at the acceptances in elimination order.
Noticed a couple of NZ horses in there; Hoorang, Spin Around & Young Centaur. Can anyone fill me in on these three? Which of the three is the stronger horse?
Noticed a couple of NZ horses in there; Hoorang, Spin Around & Young Centaur. Can anyone fill me in on these three? Which of the three is the stronger horse?
LordMayorJohnSo
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Hoorang was the winner of the NZ cup over 3200m last season, Spin Around won the Auckland Cup over 3200m also.
Young Centaur is stablemate of contender Red Ruler and has a good record over 3200m and his main aim will be the cup I believe he may be going to Mornington then to MV Cup. His 2nd up run was excellent rattling home his last 600m in a slowly run race behind Speed Gifted, he seems to be right on track and ticking along nicely
So having said that I think Young Centaur would be the best chance of these as he is over here and has put in a good run
- Dec 4, 2004
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What are peoples thoughts on who will be the main challengers for the less glamorous MC leadup races such as the Saab, MV Cup, Geelong cup?
LordMayorJohnSo
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Obviously it's going to be the horses just on the verge of gaining a cups start and needing to win one of these to get in. The Geelong Cup has been a very good form reference for the Melbourne Cup over the past few years with many of it's winners going on to run well in the big one obviously Media Puzzle won it while On a Jeune and Bauer ran 2nd.
At the moment it's hard to say the attrition rate of the cup and elimination order will be alot clearer in the next few weeks and obviously the horses that don't need to run in these lesser races won't and the one's needing to gain a start will
