2013 afl power rankings
1 Hawthorn (-)
2 Fremantle (-)
3 Geelong (-)
4 Adelaide (-)
5 Sydney (-)
6 Richmond (-)
7 Collingwood (-)
8 Gold Coast (-)
9 Kangaroos (-)
10 St Kilda (-)
11 Brisbane (-)
12 Carlton (-)
13 Essendon (-)
14 Bulldogs (-)
15 Port Adelaide (-)
16 West Coast (-)
17 Melbourne (-)
18 GWS (-)
How good is Brisbane?
The Power Rankings return for their third season on Bigfooty and the first question that is asked is how much of an effect does winning a preseason competition have on a AFL club today. Or you could ask how it affects all teams but the reality is that the preseason form means little. If you look at the last ten years, even for the best team in the preseason competition the positional change from their previous year is an average of two spots up the ladder. In fact in the last ten years, only five preseason cup winners have improved their ladder position from the previous year.
In the last two decades, teams that have finished low on the ladder like the Lions did last year (11th or lower) and went on the following year to win the preseason cup, only two of those teams went on the to play the finals; Adelaide last year and Port Adelaide in 2001. That in mind, most of teams moved up a few positions that same year. A new formula for the preseason finalists has been added to the rankings giving both Lions (12th) and the Blues (5th) some additional points. But only Brisbane move up one spot because of the new NAB cup modifier. Although they could move up one spot to 11th this week if Essendon (11th) start with a hefty loss.
Now the real equitable competition starts - no peptides, shady deals or deliberate losi… anyway, we can get to the business of watching the rankings unfold because really who else is going to review games with all the new confusing rule changes and give an accurate performance indicator? These rankings of course. May your team have a good 2013. Especially Richmond; hopefully once they establish themselves as a top four side Kevin Bartlett won’t feel the need to make any more rule changes.
What are the Power Rankings?
To those new to the rankings, the power rankings equate match day performance as a modelling tool in order to get a better understanding which teams are closest to winning a premiership. This also helps with tipping results weekly.
The Power Rankings collate and model data on:
-Final margins
-Score differentials over game time (scoreworm)
-Expected performance based on:
-team selection, form, home ground advantage, breaks, travel, historical matchups and previous/current ranking position(s)
-In-game injuries
-Umpiring decisions reviewed and weighted
-Weather conditions
The Power Rankings do not take into account:
Gameplans
Preseason form guide (except Grand Final)
Betting Odds
Statistical data such as:
Inside 50’s, contested possessions, kicking efficiency, goal accuracy, etc…
Media opinion
FAQ
Why did a team move down the rankings this week if they won, when another team that lost moved up the rankings?
The rankings are based on expected performance. One example could simply be that beating GWS by 10 point is considered a lower performance of losing to Hawthorn by 10 points. Other factors also come into play.
Aren’t umpiring decisions subjective, so how are they equated in a mathematical model?
Every game is recorded and umpiring decisions are reviewed until a satisfactory conclusion is made and weighted accordingly.
How can you know if an umpiring decision was going to result in a goal and therefore be accurately weighted?
Incorrect umpiring decisions are weighted based on position on ground, score differential, time in game, successive free-kicks and whether it should have been awarded to the opposition instead.
If you have any questions I'll try and answer as best I can.
Weekly tips for tipping and line bets will be given based on the rankings formula predictor.
This week the bookmakers have the expected results very close to the power rankings predicted formula so we won't be putting any line bets on those games. Of course tips are on the favuorites:
West Coast (by 1 point) and Adelaide (by 17 points) this week.
1 Hawthorn (-)
2 Fremantle (-)
3 Geelong (-)
4 Adelaide (-)
5 Sydney (-)
6 Richmond (-)
7 Collingwood (-)
8 Gold Coast (-)
9 Kangaroos (-)
10 St Kilda (-)
11 Brisbane (-)
12 Carlton (-)
13 Essendon (-)
14 Bulldogs (-)
15 Port Adelaide (-)
16 West Coast (-)
17 Melbourne (-)
18 GWS (-)
How good is Brisbane?
The Power Rankings return for their third season on Bigfooty and the first question that is asked is how much of an effect does winning a preseason competition have on a AFL club today. Or you could ask how it affects all teams but the reality is that the preseason form means little. If you look at the last ten years, even for the best team in the preseason competition the positional change from their previous year is an average of two spots up the ladder. In fact in the last ten years, only five preseason cup winners have improved their ladder position from the previous year.
In the last two decades, teams that have finished low on the ladder like the Lions did last year (11th or lower) and went on the following year to win the preseason cup, only two of those teams went on the to play the finals; Adelaide last year and Port Adelaide in 2001. That in mind, most of teams moved up a few positions that same year. A new formula for the preseason finalists has been added to the rankings giving both Lions (12th) and the Blues (5th) some additional points. But only Brisbane move up one spot because of the new NAB cup modifier. Although they could move up one spot to 11th this week if Essendon (11th) start with a hefty loss.
Now the real equitable competition starts - no peptides, shady deals or deliberate losi… anyway, we can get to the business of watching the rankings unfold because really who else is going to review games with all the new confusing rule changes and give an accurate performance indicator? These rankings of course. May your team have a good 2013. Especially Richmond; hopefully once they establish themselves as a top four side Kevin Bartlett won’t feel the need to make any more rule changes.
What are the Power Rankings?
To those new to the rankings, the power rankings equate match day performance as a modelling tool in order to get a better understanding which teams are closest to winning a premiership. This also helps with tipping results weekly.
The Power Rankings collate and model data on:
-Final margins
-Score differentials over game time (scoreworm)
-Expected performance based on:
-team selection, form, home ground advantage, breaks, travel, historical matchups and previous/current ranking position(s)
-In-game injuries
-Umpiring decisions reviewed and weighted
-Weather conditions
The Power Rankings do not take into account:
Gameplans
Preseason form guide (except Grand Final)
Betting Odds
Statistical data such as:
Inside 50’s, contested possessions, kicking efficiency, goal accuracy, etc…
Media opinion
FAQ
Why did a team move down the rankings this week if they won, when another team that lost moved up the rankings?
The rankings are based on expected performance. One example could simply be that beating GWS by 10 point is considered a lower performance of losing to Hawthorn by 10 points. Other factors also come into play.
Aren’t umpiring decisions subjective, so how are they equated in a mathematical model?
Every game is recorded and umpiring decisions are reviewed until a satisfactory conclusion is made and weighted accordingly.
How can you know if an umpiring decision was going to result in a goal and therefore be accurately weighted?
Incorrect umpiring decisions are weighted based on position on ground, score differential, time in game, successive free-kicks and whether it should have been awarded to the opposition instead.
If you have any questions I'll try and answer as best I can.
Weekly tips for tipping and line bets will be given based on the rankings formula predictor.
This week the bookmakers have the expected results very close to the power rankings predicted formula so we won't be putting any line bets on those games. Of course tips are on the favuorites:
West Coast (by 1 point) and Adelaide (by 17 points) this week.
