2014 Emirates Melbourne Cup Day discussion.

[A11dAtP0w3R]

My two Melbourne Cup bets thus far running round tomorrow (Masked Marvel and Araldo) in the last at Caulfield. Don't think either are a serious winning chance (at the distance) but id expect them to run well/be running on strongly against the likes of Trade Commissioner, Mr O'Ceirin and Brambles if they are going to be any sort of chance in November.

 

[iluvparis]

Fair enough although she has barely raced in group company.
Perhaps the UK staying form is questionable this season but she has most of the rest covered.
Can stay & quicken which will be essential if they Japanese do arrive,guess we'll soon know

seth

Leading Light is clearly the best of the stayers (would have been interesting had they brought him last year instead of going for the Arc) but outside that you can generally throw a blanket over them this year - they have taken turns winning since Brown Panther recorded back-to-back wins earlier in the season. Pale Mimosa would definitley be in the top 3 or 4 but it seems like she needs everything to go perfectly for her on her day to win (also gets scratched a lot - suggests issues or very specific ground requirements).

 

[sethlad]

Leading Light is clearly the best of the stayers (would have been interesting had they brought him last year instead of going for the Arc) but outside that you can generally throw a blanket over them this year - they have taken turns winning since Brown Panther recorded back-to-back wins earlier in the season. Pale Mimosa would definitley be in the top 3 or 4 but it seems like she needs everything to go perfectly for her on her day to win (also gets scratched a lot - suggests issues or very specific ground requirements).

Yeh I actually meant of the uk horses that are likely to be here, shes got them covered Imo

seth

 

[sethlad]

Racing Victoria ‏@RacingInsider 25m
NEWS: 2011 Melbourne Cup-winning rider Christophe Lemaire has been booked to ride Japanese raider Bande this @springcarnival

seth

 

[OhhhhhCyril]

Should this thread just be kept to Melbourne cup talk? I just wants to say commanding jewel is the horse I want to be on all spring, backed her to win the thousand guineas last year at 9s, and was super first run back.

And what do you guys think of Kav's horse ridden by Bossy, straight into Fav for the Caufiekd guineas after that cracking win.

 

[sethlad]

Should this thread just be kept to Melbourne cup talk? I just wants to say commanding jewel is the horse I want to be on all spring, backed her to win the thousand guineas last year at 9s, and was super first run back
And what do you guys think of Kav's horse ridden by Bossy, straight into Fav for the Caufiekd guineas after that cracking win.

well for me Id like to keep the Melb cup thread to Melb cup chat.
perhaps there could be a spring races thread?

seth

 

[iluvparis]

well for me Id like to keep the Melb cup thread to Melb cup chat.
perhaps there could be a spring races thread?

seth

Would also prefer it kept to just Melbourne Cup Chat.

Speaking of which - the Godolphin mob are suggesting WILLING FOE might be some chance of coming - he'd be a great horse to send down I reckon - former Ebor winner (beating Royal Diamond) - he flogged Harris Tweed in one run last year before going amiss. First up was huge only just getting nutted by Seismos. Would love to see him have a crack.

 

[OhhhhhCyril]

@OTIRacing: Gatewood gets his chance to confirm his Melb trip in 2500m G2 at Deauville tonight. Track is heavy so hopefully he'll handle it.

Race 6 @11:40 tonight

 

[sethlad]

Would also prefer it kept to just Melbourne Cup Chat.

Speaking of which - the Godolphin mob are suggesting WILLING FOE might be some chance of coming - he'd be a great horse to send down I reckon - former Ebor winner (beating Royal Diamond) - he flogged Harris Tweed in one run last year before going amiss. First up was huge only just getting nutted by Seismos. Would love to see him have a crack.

Agree here,very likely type for mine.
has had a big injury but was very good 1st up from a long break.
Definite no 1 seed from Godolphin if he arrives

seth

 

[sethlad]

1st nominations close tomorrow with weights announced 2 weeks later on Sep 16

seth

 

[sethlad]

Racing Victoria ‏@RacingInsider 8m
JUST IN: @RVCarps announces a total of 148 entries have been received for the Melbourne Cup, including 31 International entries

seth

 

[sethlad]

http://www.risa.com.au/FreeFields/Nominations.aspx?Key=2014Nov04,VIC,Flemington

The winner is amongst us

seth

 

[plays tall 1]

Some notable names missing from the nominations - Brown Panther, Certerach and Pether's Moon.

 

[sethlad]

Some notable names missing from the nominations - Brown Panther, Certerach and Pether's Moon.

None of them a total surprise on their last runs,all very plain

seth

 

[bob_neil]

Glad to see the couple I've had a few cheeky dollars on have made it past the first hurdle.

Nine weeks to go!!

 

[iluvparis]

A couple of my specs have fallen at the first hurdle

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Talk of the Queens horse Estimate coming over, surely wouldnt be a winning chance!
The Ascot Gold Cup winning form has been poor in the past, bar perhaps Simenon from memory

 

[plays tall 1]

Adrian Dunn reporting that Hillstar bought by Aussie interests

 

[iluvparis]

Talk of the Queens horse Estimate coming over, surely wouldnt be a winning chance!
The Ascot Gold Cup winning form has been poor in the past, bar perhaps Simenon from memory

Form line is pretty much the same as Pale Mimosa's so if you think one is a winning chance hard to rule out the other.

She has more class than Pale Mimosa IMHO but is a real UK fighter/grinder rather than a turn of foot horse.

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Form line is pretty much the same as Pale Mimosa's so if you think one is a winning chance hard to rule out the other.

She has more class than Pale Mimosa IMHO but is a real UK fighter/grinder rather than a turn of foot horse.

Similar to a Vinnie Roe type? Will try and wear you down

 

[iluvparis]

Similar to a Vinnie Roe type? Will try and wear you down

Would probably sit a bit further back in running than Vinnie Roe did, but a decent comparison in style of horse. If you watch the last two gold cups she really grinds it out rather than sprinting clear and holding on.

If they went mad up front and made it a true staying test she would be right in it. Put it this way - would have no issue backing her in a match race against Pale Mimosa.

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Would probably sit a bit further back in running than Vinnie Roe did, but a decent comparison in style of horse. If you watch the last two gold cups she really grinds it out rather than sprinting clear and holding on.

If they went mad up front and made it a true staying test she would be right in it. Put it this way - would have no issue backing her in a match race against Pale Mimosa.

Traditionally from memory gold cup winners have struggled with the tempo of the racing here, one that always sticks in my mind whenever I consider putting a gold cup winner on my shortlist is Yeats, 4 time gold cup winner but a dud @ Flemington. Is a pass on Estimate for me

 

[sethlad]

I dont see Estimate as a M Cup horse in 2014, cant back her in an Australian 2 mile race.

seth

 

[Viva la Mattner]

I dont see Estimate as a M Cup horse in 2014, cant back her in an Australian 2 mile race.

seth

Any french horses of note looking at coming this year seth? Similar to Verema last year?

 

[sethlad]

Any french horses of note looking at coming this year seth? Similar to Verema last year?

Not this year, only 4 in the Kergolay although the winner Protectionist (ger) is coming

seth