List Mgmt. 2015 Draft: Jacob Hopper GWS Academy Player Rated A Top 5 Pick

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I imagine what will happen is teams will bid high for any decent prospect and eventually we will call the bluff. Then the bidding team has commuted to a player with a high pick and when they may have really only wanted to force us to pay high but now miss a highly rated Victorian kid for a kid we can get back in the psd. Bring it on
 

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Ichabod Noodle said:
I don't see why a team can take an academy player with one pick while we, who've spent time developing him, must give up three or four picks to "match" the one pick. Where's the discount for development?

Certainly seems a long way from "fair price"
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Bad logic. If we traded away picks 18, 36, and 37 for pick 2, would that be a bad trade because we're "giving up three or four picks to match the one pick"? I'd do that trade in an instant, and it was basically the Heeney scenario under the new system.

There's a 20% discount for development in the first round, a fixed discount equivalent to the last first round pick for rounds 2 and 3 (i.e. the discount is effectively bigger), and free players round 4 and later.

Using 2014 as an example, Finlayson would still be free. Steele would still have cost us our second rounder but also a four or five pick downgrade on our third rounder.

Unless we're looking at a truly top 5 talent, the new system doesn't really change things up all that much, and I'm not going to hold my breath on Hopper because BF and the media repeatedly overrate northern talent compared to what clubs eventually bid.
 
dlanod said:
Using 2014 as an example, Finlayson would still be free. Steele would still have cost us our second rounder but also a four or five pick downgrade on our third rounder.
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Actually as the practice is supposedly live picks on draft night, not allocated picks, it would have meant that the pick we used for McKenna would have been used (23) plus the third round, leaving us pick 24 to pick McKenna.

We're luckier because we will be trading players to reduce list size and will be able to pick up the extras to upgrade for the good players.
 
Ellie Aquitaine said:
Actually as the practice is supposedly live picks on draft night, not allocated picks, it would have meant that the pick we used for McKenna would have been used (23) plus the third round, leaving us pick 24 to pick McKenna.

We're luckier because we will be trading players to reduce list size and will be able to pick up the extras to upgrade for the good players.
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Yep, also true. I'm just too lazy to go back and review the exact picks each club actually had. :)
 
It has reportedly been endorsed by the Northern clubs. Not sure if it was a case of choose this or nothing. The system is supposed to make the recruiting/drafting period a bit more certain (for clubs and players) and easier to plan.

I suppose the worst thing that happens is that the 2nd, 3rd, 4th best rated academy players will at least get picked up by an AFL team.
 
So u know how they use the Heeney pick as a example so melbourne bids pick 2 for Heeney swans match that pick with 18 37 38 and 57 so that means melbourne get swans picks because they bid for a academy player.
 
BarryAglett said:
It has reportedly been endorsed by the Northern clubs. Not sure if it was a case of choose this or nothing. The system is supposed to make the recruiting/drafting period a bit more certain (for clubs and players) and easier to plan.

I suppose the worst thing that happens is that the 2nd, 3rd, 4th best rated academy players will at least get picked up by an AFL team.
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Who will want to come home after 2 years anyway???
 
Big dog 25 said:
So u know how they use the Heeney pick as a example so melbourne bids pick 2 for Heeney swans match that pick with 18 37 38 and 57 so that means melbourne get swans picks because they bid for a academy player.
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I don't know how it works. That seems pretty harsh if I am understanding you correctly.
We'll have to see how things pan out.

Eddie MacPie is still not happy so it can't be all that bad.
 
Big dog 25 said:
So u know how they use the Heeney pick as a example so melbourne bids pick 2 for Heeney swans match that pick with 18 37 38 and 57 so that means melbourne get swans picks because they bid for a academy player.
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No, Melbourne doesn't get Sydney's picks. Using the Heeney example, the AFL will probably just take Heeney out of the draft pool and then bump up everyone's picks from 18 and on. Melbourne gets to re-pick with pick 2.

In effect Sydney actually gets pick 2 and chooses Heeney, loses all their other picks, and everyone else gets shuffled down one between picks 2 and 18, then no change until 37 because a pick was added but a pick was taken away, then up two, etc.
 

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StKilda board froffing over us now "having to trade" Shiel so we can land Hopper and Kennedy.

Mate I wouldn't trade Shiel if it guaranteed I would win $50,000,000.00 Powerball.

Why would I trade him for an unknown academy selection in Kennedy?
 
inamedthegiants said:
StKilda board froffing over us now "having to trade" Shiel so we can land Hopper and Kennedy.

Mate I wouldn't trade Shiel if it guaranteed I would win $50,000,000.00 Powerball.

Why would I trade him for an unknown academy selection in Kennedy?
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True words.
Logic says that Shiel is the one who decides. If he wants to stay, he does. We are building to something *now* and Shiel hopefully wants to be a part of it. We'd love him to stay on.

Kennedy may or may not be a top 10 draft choice. Too many maybes.
 
Just to clear up the bidding system thing:

Heeney would have become the second selection, to the swans, and the swans other traded selections would have gone to the very back of the draft queue, turning picks 18, 37, 38 and 57 into picks 84, 85, 86, 87.

The dees would have then had Petracca at pick 3, Brayshaw at pick 5 etc etc all the way down.

Also, FWIW I think that this is a fair outcome for all. I think the next step will be TAC Cup teams to be tied to Victorian clubs, with similar academy rights for those players. F/S players would then be able to play for the corresponding TAC Cup team, and similar bidding rights would prevail to the northern academies. It becomes very very expensive to get a top talent (and you're mortgaging your future to do it), but shouldn't it be?
 
InSpectre said:
Also, FWIW I think that this is a fair outcome for all. I think the next step will be TAC Cup teams to be tied to Victorian clubs, with similar academy rights for those players. F/S players would then be able to play for the corresponding TAC Cup team, and similar bidding rights would prevail to the northern academies. It becomes very very expensive to get a top talent (and you're mortgaging your future to do it), but shouldn't it be?
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FWIW that would be awful. Someone got Calder Cannons? Four top 30 picks, each attracting a 20% discount. Over the last three years? Here's some draft totals for those taken in the first two rounds, i.e. the top talent:

Calder: 8
Dandedong: 6
Eastern Ranges: 5
Geelong: 7
Gippsland: 2
Murray: 4
North Ballarat: 4
Northern Knights: 6
Oakleigh: 10
Sandringham: 9
Western Jets: 6

And then for comparison, split across two clubs each:

Qld: 3
NSW: 3

So the northern clubs get 1.5 players each to choose from over the last three years but Victorian clubs get at least 2 or more likely four or more? Gippsland is the only club to have less top draftees than either NSW or Qld over the last three years. NSW and Qld produce nowhere near the talent of the Victorian areas, which is the only reason the academies work. If they start coming close the academies will be moved on and should be, have no doubt about that.
 
Jacob hopper northern Ballarat rebels tac cup stats
29 th March vs Geelong Falcons best on ground 4 goals 27 disposals 6 marks and 4 tackles

25th of April vs Calder cannons 6 goals 10 disposals 2 marks 2 tackles 6th best on ground

9th may vs northern knights 3 goals 24 disposals 3 marks 6 tackles BOG

16th may vs Gippsland power 2 goals 30 disposals 3 marks 4 tackles BOG
 
Matthew Kennedy nsw/act Rams tac cup stats
25th April vs western jets 1 goal 26 disposals 4 marks 6 tackles 2nd best on ground

2nd may Dandenong stingrays 3 goals 25 disposals 6 marks 3 tackles BOG

10th may Murray bushrangers 0 goals 17 disposals 2 marks 8 tackles not In best players

16th may oakleigh chargers 2 goals 30 disposals 9 marks 4 tackles BOG
 
dlanod said:
FWIW that would be awful. Someone got Calder Cannons? Four top 30 picks, each attracting a 20% discount. Over the last three years? Here's some draft totals for those taken in the first two rounds, i.e. the top talent:

Calder: 8
Dandedong: 6
Eastern Ranges: 5
Geelong: 7
Gippsland: 2
Murray: 4
North Ballarat: 4
Northern Knights: 6
Oakleigh: 10
Sandringham: 9
Western Jets: 6

And then for comparison, split across two clubs each:

Qld: 3
NSW: 3

So the northern clubs get 1.5 players each to choose from over the last three years but Victorian clubs get at least 2 or more likely four or more? Gippsland is the only club to have less top draftees than either NSW or Qld over the last three years. NSW and Qld produce nowhere near the talent of the Victorian areas, which is the only reason the academies work. If they start coming close the academies will be moved on and should be, have no doubt about that.
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Agree, and I'm not saying its something that would happen next as in next year, more a down the track thing that the AFL seems to be discussing. There are obvious equity issues (Calder being very good the most obvious), but those can be ironed out by changing eligibility criteria or geographic areas for those teams, or changing the discount so it makes it more difficult for teams to hoard large numbers of high picks (meaning if you wanted Ahern, Wright, Lever and Miller from last years Calder crop you would need to give your first away in the next three drafts, plus all your picks this year - something like a multiplier from number of academy players picked).

I just don't think the academies should be moved on when (and it is a when, not an if Victorians) they start producing on par talent - something in the pre-draft system should just be changed to reflect that. If I were to guess I would say that we are 5-10 years away from some of these academies producing a consistent stream of draft-able talent. Shutting it down once it starts to work would be a mistake. Finding a way to make it co-exist with other under 18 competitions, in whatever form that takes, is an important next step.
 
InSpectre said:
Shutting it down once it starts to work would be a mistake. Finding a way to make it co-exist with other under 18 competitions, in whatever form that takes, is an important next step.
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The bolded part was just shorthand for the northern clubs not having privileged access to the academy output any more. Once they get successful enough to bring out top picks consistently, they should be self-sustaining enough because everyone can see the path to the AFL because the likes of Heeney and Mills have come through and become stars.
 
dlanod said:
The bolded part was just shorthand for the northern clubs not having privileged access to the academy output any more. Once they get successful enough to bring out top picks consistently, they should be self-sustaining enough because everyone can see the path to the AFL because the likes of Heeney and Mills have come through and become stars.
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Isn't more a bang for your buck thing though? Why would the Giants continue to fund an academy if they don't get some kind of direct benefit from it? That'd be like the the Cats funding the Falcons without any draft concession for doing so.

Although at that point we'll have 60,000 members and cash to burn so maybe we can just do the rest of the AFL a solid. :cool::cool:
 
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