Trades 2023 Fantasy Round 17 Trades
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- Mar 31, 2019
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Vc and C is a hard one this week. So tempted on Neale vs West coast into Dawson as fail safe. Is O'Neil going to play and tag?
Gulden at the g, alot of space for easy marks. 161 and 71 at the g this year. Easy matchup, only 2/6 of his last games he's gone over 110.
TT, writing is on the wall. One bad score this year, tougher match up, could cop attebtion from Rowbottom/mills. Swans only allowed 1x120 score in there last 9 games to a mid.
Bont vs pies who leak points these days and don't have anyone in there to restrict him. Friday night game, primed to go big.
Gulden at the g, alot of space for easy marks. 161 and 71 at the g this year. Easy matchup, only 2/6 of his last games he's gone over 110.
TT, writing is on the wall. One bad score this year, tougher match up, could cop attebtion from Rowbottom/mills. Swans only allowed 1x120 score in there last 9 games to a mid.
Bont vs pies who leak points these days and don't have anyone in there to restrict him. Friday night game, primed to go big.
WaynesWorld19
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Neale is an obvious (VC) choice ......my fear though is, will Neale have the foot to the peddle against a poor travelling WCE at the Gabba .......can smell a trap
Currently, have Tarranto (v SYD) into Dawson (C) .......will take your thoughts on-board re Gulden ...3 x biggies in a row ?
I'm becoming less and less bullish on loading up on Brisbane this week. Ranked 12th/18 for average fantasy points, and only 9th in the last 3 weeks despite winning all 3, thrashing Richmond (5th easiest to score against), accounting for StK (3rd easiest to score against - and under the roof) and Sydney (not easy to score against, especially of late).
Their game is so big on hoofing it forward. Bottom tier for total disposals, uncontested disposals, and pressure acts. Top tier for metres per disposal, clearances, total ruck contests per match, marks inside 50. Big O loves to grab it out of the ruck and hoof it forward, clearing the stoppage. Williams isn't a particularly competitive ruck.
WCE, esp with Hurn & Duggan back in, have a tendency to play chip to chip back there and cool the game. No doubt StK let them do that last week, but half 'damage mitigation' - if we have the ball, they can't score, and half that's been something they've been prone to anyway. But Brisbane's opponents average 20 more disposals a match than them at a much lower metres per disposal.
I just wonder if some/all of the following could happen:
Not sure if any of this makes sense or seems plausible, but I can just see a reality where even if Brisbane do well, given they're not a fantasy friendly team to begin with, that dominance may not reflect there. Especially if WCE roll over, the ball could almost go over the heads of the midfielders on the way to the forward line, and big O could just clear the stoppages a lot with his usual grab and hoof forward or just whack it 30 metres.
Their game is so big on hoofing it forward. Bottom tier for total disposals, uncontested disposals, and pressure acts. Top tier for metres per disposal, clearances, total ruck contests per match, marks inside 50. Big O loves to grab it out of the ruck and hoof it forward, clearing the stoppage. Williams isn't a particularly competitive ruck.
WCE, esp with Hurn & Duggan back in, have a tendency to play chip to chip back there and cool the game. No doubt StK let them do that last week, but half 'damage mitigation' - if we have the ball, they can't score, and half that's been something they've been prone to anyway. But Brisbane's opponents average 20 more disposals a match than them at a much lower metres per disposal.
I just wonder if some/all of the following could happen:
- Brisbane lean heavily into their proven plan this year of aggressively moving it forward and not over possessing
- This means the ball quickly enters their F50, spending less time in their possession before being potentially turned over. More opportunity for WCE to regain possession.
- WCE slow the game down/overpossess, especially in D50
- Or, Brisbane just get completely on top, especially given their forward line and marking inside 50 is already a strength. A lot of their time in possession is spent with forwards, and while goals are good, continually losing 30 seconds of live play to the set shot routine is not.
Not sure if any of this makes sense or seems plausible, but I can just see a reality where even if Brisbane do well, given they're not a fantasy friendly team to begin with, that dominance may not reflect there. Especially if WCE roll over, the ball could almost go over the heads of the midfielders on the way to the forward line, and big O could just clear the stoppages a lot with his usual grab and hoof forward or just whack it 30 metres.
WaynesWorld19
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Some really good points Skippos
WaynesWorld19
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Neale strikes me as the daicos type. Even against bottom team's will take advantage to pig up his stats.
Gulden might have the biggest ceiling for a vc, primed occassion for him here. Easy team to score on, the g is a wide ground for plus 6s. But 2/6 of his last 6 has been a good vc score. So least likely out of the above to hit the vc score we want but biggest ceiling if he does. And he can here.dawson my fall back C.
And in case anyone cares, sharing my notes on captains this week as I think it's a hard week.
Thursday:
Taranto: Coming off a weak one, coming up against Sydney who are one of the restrictive teams this year, especially over the last 3 weeks. Their matches in general have been low fantasy games of late compared to earlier in the year, with their last 2 night games both going under 2900 total points, over 200 below the season match average (5pts per player). Sydney have a habit of Rowbottom/Mills playing very accountably on the oppo's midfielders. If the flu talk was true, he may not be 100%
Gulden: 2x really good scores recently, TOG seems up now that he's back on a wing, ceiling is high. Doesn't need CBAs to score, but it feels hard to trust without them. His scoring has been high despite Sydney matches being low. Richmond not a bad matchup
Friday:
Bont: Form is hot, but Collingwood not a great matchup for mids (less so of late)
English: Patchy with form, should get more hitouts v Coll if Cameron rucks the majority, but the game may not be played the way he likes
Daicos: If he plays more mids, the Dogs aren't that easy to score against and the bodies are bigger. If he's in defence more, esp at Marvel, the Dogs should be easier to score against
Saturday:
Neale: Eagles are easy, his form is hot, but strikes me as a tag risk and the game may not be played on his terms
Green: Hawks without Sicily should be a really nice matchup at home, but they sent Nash (with success) to him in the second half in Gather round, which is one of the few times they've 'tagged' this year. May elect to repeat.
Crouch: No Clarry against Melbourne, and Petracca may play a little more forward to cover Fritsch. Melbourne very restrictive this year and recently, but some mids have put up good scores in spite of that; but mainly defenders who prosper against them.
Sinclair: See Crouch, but with the added rider of defenders scoring easier
Marshall: Not against those rucks
Petracca: St Kilda no doubt easier, but that often manifests behind the ball not in front of it and if anything, he's in for more time forward of centre
Rozee/Butters/Anderson: I'd be avoiding these guys in a night match at AO between these two
Sunday:
A note on the Essendon/Adelaide game at Marvel, which I reckon will be fascinating from a fantasy/style perspective.
Essendon have become quite restrictive, especially of late, and especially with mids. Defenders seem to be the beneficiaries against them as they clear it out hard. Essendon's opponents average 48 tackles a game, but they average 7 more at 55, but still below the season average of 60. Crows average 64 and their opponents 65, both above the season average - despite Crow games being some of the lower fantasy scoring games each week, especially for their oppo.
Essendon's opponents average 102 marks a game, well above the season average of 90. Crow opponents average 73 marks a game. Essendon average 102 marks a game, the Crows average 89. Crows are #1 in the league for ruck contests per match at 105, Essendon comfortably last at 82 (5 below 17th!)
So we've got the two the most contrasting fanatsy styles against each other. Essendon play exclusively on the outside - themselves playing a very low stoppage, low tackle, high mark game. And allowing their opponents the same. The Crows playing an extraordinarily high stoppage, high tackle game, and not letting their opponents possess it heavily on the outside. Both of these run completely counter to how the other wants to play.
Predicting how this will manifest from a fantasy perspective is near impossible.
Dawson: is a very high tackle player, especially of late. And generally solid at linking up for marks.
Laird: an especially high tackle player, but since the midfield move, a very low mark player.
Parish: low tackle, mid range for marks, high possession/accumulation.
Merrett: medium tackle, medium marks, high posesssion.
Serong: Carlton a little harder for mids, but fine
Brayshaw: Carlton a little harder for mids, but fine
Doch: Freo a little easier for most and Optus can be a wing-friendly venue especially on a Sunday afternoon.
Gun to my head, I think most of these guys have flags this week, but Laird, Merrett, Parish, Green, Marshall's flags are blood red and I'd avoid. I also think Crouch, Dawson (more comfortable in him than Laird for style reasons, but still), Taranto, English all have stocks down this week. Only Docherty I have as 'stocks up'. Gulden logically makes sense, but I find it so hard to trust a non-CBA guy (I say this while below advocating for Docherty. I don't know why the vibes are different).
I think Daicos into Docherty might be the sensible play this week, maybe Dawson. Gulden as VC ticks boxes but I don't think I can do it. Bont is a safe VC but probably gets you the 106-115 that makes you go 'hmmm'.
Given the poor options elsewhere, Taranto as the fantasy king on a Thursday night, even with flags, is probably a smart VC play. But I still find it hard given what happened last week/the flu stuff/Sydney's heavily restrictive game of late.
Thursday:
Taranto: Coming off a weak one, coming up against Sydney who are one of the restrictive teams this year, especially over the last 3 weeks. Their matches in general have been low fantasy games of late compared to earlier in the year, with their last 2 night games both going under 2900 total points, over 200 below the season match average (5pts per player). Sydney have a habit of Rowbottom/Mills playing very accountably on the oppo's midfielders. If the flu talk was true, he may not be 100%
Gulden: 2x really good scores recently, TOG seems up now that he's back on a wing, ceiling is high. Doesn't need CBAs to score, but it feels hard to trust without them. His scoring has been high despite Sydney matches being low. Richmond not a bad matchup
Friday:
Bont: Form is hot, but Collingwood not a great matchup for mids (less so of late)
English: Patchy with form, should get more hitouts v Coll if Cameron rucks the majority, but the game may not be played the way he likes
Daicos: If he plays more mids, the Dogs aren't that easy to score against and the bodies are bigger. If he's in defence more, esp at Marvel, the Dogs should be easier to score against
Saturday:
Neale: Eagles are easy, his form is hot, but strikes me as a tag risk and the game may not be played on his terms
Green: Hawks without Sicily should be a really nice matchup at home, but they sent Nash (with success) to him in the second half in Gather round, which is one of the few times they've 'tagged' this year. May elect to repeat.
Crouch: No Clarry against Melbourne, and Petracca may play a little more forward to cover Fritsch. Melbourne very restrictive this year and recently, but some mids have put up good scores in spite of that; but mainly defenders who prosper against them.
Sinclair: See Crouch, but with the added rider of defenders scoring easier
Marshall: Not against those rucks
Petracca: St Kilda no doubt easier, but that often manifests behind the ball not in front of it and if anything, he's in for more time forward of centre
Rozee/Butters/Anderson: I'd be avoiding these guys in a night match at AO between these two
Sunday:
A note on the Essendon/Adelaide game at Marvel, which I reckon will be fascinating from a fantasy/style perspective.
Essendon have become quite restrictive, especially of late, and especially with mids. Defenders seem to be the beneficiaries against them as they clear it out hard. Essendon's opponents average 48 tackles a game, but they average 7 more at 55, but still below the season average of 60. Crows average 64 and their opponents 65, both above the season average - despite Crow games being some of the lower fantasy scoring games each week, especially for their oppo.
Essendon's opponents average 102 marks a game, well above the season average of 90. Crow opponents average 73 marks a game. Essendon average 102 marks a game, the Crows average 89. Crows are #1 in the league for ruck contests per match at 105, Essendon comfortably last at 82 (5 below 17th!)
So we've got the two the most contrasting fanatsy styles against each other. Essendon play exclusively on the outside - themselves playing a very low stoppage, low tackle, high mark game. And allowing their opponents the same. The Crows playing an extraordinarily high stoppage, high tackle game, and not letting their opponents possess it heavily on the outside. Both of these run completely counter to how the other wants to play.
Predicting how this will manifest from a fantasy perspective is near impossible.
Dawson: is a very high tackle player, especially of late. And generally solid at linking up for marks.
Laird: an especially high tackle player, but since the midfield move, a very low mark player.
Parish: low tackle, mid range for marks, high possession/accumulation.
Merrett: medium tackle, medium marks, high posesssion.
Serong: Carlton a little harder for mids, but fine
Brayshaw: Carlton a little harder for mids, but fine
Doch: Freo a little easier for most and Optus can be a wing-friendly venue especially on a Sunday afternoon.
Gun to my head, I think most of these guys have flags this week, but Laird, Merrett, Parish, Green, Marshall's flags are blood red and I'd avoid. I also think Crouch, Dawson (more comfortable in him than Laird for style reasons, but still), Taranto, English all have stocks down this week. Only Docherty I have as 'stocks up'. Gulden logically makes sense, but I find it so hard to trust a non-CBA guy (I say this while below advocating for Docherty. I don't know why the vibes are different).
I think Daicos into Docherty might be the sensible play this week, maybe Dawson. Gulden as VC ticks boxes but I don't think I can do it. Bont is a safe VC but probably gets you the 106-115 that makes you go 'hmmm'.
Given the poor options elsewhere, Taranto as the fantasy king on a Thursday night, even with flags, is probably a smart VC play. But I still find it hard given what happened last week/the flu stuff/Sydney's heavily restrictive game of late.
Sinclair copped a tag last week and barely cracked the ton. Telly is coming back this week so XON could be dropped. But either way I wouldn’t trust Neale if he was tagged as he’s a mid who can barely cope with one.
Also only 3 Saints cracked the ton and 7 Eagles got 100s so it’s never a given
I’m going VC Bont, C Serong. Serong has stepped up a gear in the last couple of weeks and is getting higher 100s now
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Naicos should defend more with DeGoey back.
VC Naicos > C Dawson
Trades were Lloyd > HH & MJ> Premo
Lloyd holds now Dunks out. Looping Lloyd/Wilmot in case he drops a stinker.
Dunks > Brayshaw & MJ > Keays.
Looping Sheldrick/Windhager if Davey doesn’t get named.
Holds 280k to get Lloyd > Sic next week. Prob Ashcroft to Mills.
Lloyd holds now Dunks out. Looping Lloyd/Wilmot in case he drops a stinker.
Dunks > Brayshaw & MJ > Keays.
Looping Sheldrick/Windhager if Davey doesn’t get named.
Holds 280k to get Lloyd > Sic next week. Prob Ashcroft to Mills.
SM
Bigfooty Legend
Hobbs or NWM out?
Think if it's Hobbs out it's HH in and banking about 500k, if it's NWM out then it's Doc in and banking about 300k.
Think if it's Hobbs out it's HH in and banking about 500k, if it's NWM out then it's Doc in and banking about 300k.
WaynesWorld19
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I think their post was poorly worded, I think he was looking at who to trade ahah
SM
Bigfooty Legend
SM
Bigfooty Legend
WaynesWorld19
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Decimation
Team Captain
Thoughts on this trade if Dunkley is out?
Dunkley > Keays (For the week or whatever it may be)
Wardlaw > Anderson
Dunkley > Keays (For the week or whatever it may be)
Wardlaw > Anderson
WaynesWorld19
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SM
Bigfooty Legend
Well it is a trade thread lol, but anyway, thoughts?
WaynesWorld19
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Isn't Touk Touk due back anytime ?
Hoping Walsh gets FWD DPP after this week .....was lucky to switch Macrae FWD and get Mills & Vlastuin for Dunkley
I like the two for one outcome you've achieved though ....apart from the Touk concern
WaynesWorld19
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SM
Bigfooty Legend
Fair, and Doc probably a lot more upside than HH.
Will see how Sheldrick goes and whether I'm forced into the forward line upgrade or can go defence.
Decimation
Team Captain
Thanks for that, anyone else you'd suggest?
Got Serong, Green, Brayshaw, Laird, Crouch and have 934k to spend.
WaynesWorld19
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Could go Neale .....but Titch could be a sneaky get, if you think De Goey back doesn't impact Mitchell ....which I don't think he does
Could go Petracca .....MELB do really have a good Fixture coming up ......confident Trac gets CBA's until Oliver comes back .....but with the Fritsch injury, does he then get pushed FWD ??
And then there's Parish ??
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