2023 Ladder Predictor

[Vdubs]

I do think the Saints game is a massive danger game for us, as poor as they have been.

We probably lose Stanley so will have a patchwork ruck setup making our midfield even less productive than it has been. We get Hawkins back at least. But this is the kind of game we have lost all season.

The Saints have strengths where our weaknesses are

 

[catempire]

The Saints have strengths where our weaknesses are

Yes.

3rd for CPs vs our 12th
2nd for UPs vs our 16th

But they are very inefficient - i50s (12th vs our 7th) and marks i50 (16th vs our 1st).

We also have them covered in clearances (11th vs 17th).

So we are rightful favourites but a poor night and we will have no trouble losing.

 

[fpm84]

The Saints have strengths where our weaknesses are

Higgins and Butler too - will be unfathomable if Bews isn’t in, given the way Rioli, Hill and Elliott have performed v us over the past fortnight.

 

[Munich]

Yep unfortunately we're barracking for Richmond today.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I do think the Saints game is a massive danger game for us, as poor as they have been.

We probably lose Stanley so will have a patchwork ruck setup making our midfield even less productive than it has been. We get Hawkins back at least. But this is the kind of game we have lost all season.

I'm nervous given our form but honestly we were pretty good Friday night and what gives me hope is the last time we played at Marvel we were playing a better team (I think the Dogs are better than Saints) and we had more mids out than we will this week. So if we play like we did last time there we will win and if we dont win we dont deserve finals anyway.

I do think the ruck situation with Marshall is a risk, if Stanley is 90 % fit I think we have to put him out there, Neale isnt ready for a game like this and Marshall isn't a great match up for Ceglar (if he is even fit).

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Higgins and Butler too - will be unfathomable if Bews isn’t in, given the way Rioli, Hill and Elliott have performed v us over the past fortnight.

I agree structurally but Bews is doing himself no favours with his vfl form he isnt warranting selection.

 

[catstragic]

With the dogs losing today... I think that means we are guaranteed finals if we win our next two? and lets face it... if we can't put away the dogs and saints with that kind of motivation then theres really no point in us getting into the finals, would just be costing us a worse pick.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Hawks did us a massive favour..means dogs now cant finish above us if we win both games. (They could still finish 8th and us 7th but it opens things right up).

If st kilda and/or gws lose today it will really open up 6th-8th for us.

 

[Footy_Fan2007]

I'm waiting until our Saints game- not as confident that we will win that at Marvel- and Saints play today. If they beat Tigers, it'll be a big statement.
Ross Lyon would love to beat the reigning premiers, like all teams do, but people are writing off the Saints as if their season is over.

Saints game is a massive danger game but beating Richmond at marvel wouldn’t be a massive statement.
The Tigers are very ordinary.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

With the dogs losing today... I think that means we are guaranteed finals if we win our next two? and lets face it... if we can't put away the dogs and saints with that kind of motivation then theres really no point in us getting into the finals, would just be costing us a worse pick.

The 2points vs syd really help us

If we win our last 2:
-dogs will be behind us as will adel
-saints behind us unless they beat rich and brisbane away

In that scenario we play finals unless syd gws and ess all pass us. That only happens if
-syd beat both adel and melb (if syd win 1 they wont pass our %)
-gws beat port and carl but lose to ess
-ess beat gws and coll

Those last 2 things are drastically unlikely.

Basically if ess lose next week they are out and (if we win both our games) we cannot mathematically miss finals unless gws and syd both win twice and st k beat bris.

So despite our bad freo loss we are likely to get in

 

[Mr Meow]

When our destiny was in our own hands, we stuffed up (Freo).
Now we rely on other games as well as having to win our last 2 games- seems unlikely to me that we make the 8.
And I doubt all year we have been capable of playing 4 pressure quarters of footy with the 22 we have, which is so different to last year. Injuries of course, but there's something else- Carlton now 7 wins in a row despite significant injuries

I mean we're having 2 goal win/2 goal losses against the top 4 and have a good record against sides 5th-8th when we've played them.

Like it or not, we'll be favourites in the last two games and if we win them we'll play finals.

 

[Mr Meow]

Yes.

3rd for CPs vs our 12th
2nd for UPs vs our 16th

But they are very inefficient - i50s (12th vs our 7th) and marks i50 (16th vs our 1st).

We also have them covered in clearances (11th vs 17th).

So we are rightful favourites but a poor night and we will have no trouble losing.

Our last two games we've actually been great for CPs.

Getting burned on the spread is the danger area.

 

[Munich]

Finishing 6th or 7th is the bad side of the draw. I'm sticking by that will send us packing.

Finishing 5th or 8th will be far better.

 

[Vdubs]

I mean we're having 2 goal win/2 goal losses against the top 4 and have a good record against sides 5th-8th when we've played them.

Like it or not, we'll be favourites in the last two games and if we win them we'll play finals.

Like it or not, beating Saints is not just going to happen because we are favourites. We are flaky away from home, they have run into form, and we are depleted

 

[Vdubs]

Saints game is a massive danger game but beating Richmond at marvel wouldn’t be a massive statement.
The Tigers are very ordinary.

They may have tossed the towel in for this season, but they are one of the many ordinary teams we could not beat, while we've been depleted

 

[Vdubs]

Yeah bulldogs losing would be a bonus but what we really want is the saints to lose today bc i dont think they will win round 24 so it would knock them out.

1 out of 2. Saints are killing them.
How do you see the last 2 games panning out?
I think next week could be a L, and our last home game, tough, but should be a W.

 

[Vdubs]

Higgins and Butler too - will be unfathomable if Bews isn’t in, given the way Rioli, Hill and Elliott have performed v us over the past fortnight.

Their MF, running HB, rucks and small forwards, all trouble.
Saints will be 6th tonight, Bulldogs 8th, but Doggies have a guaranteed win next week.

 

[Gee Class Loco]

Their MF, running HB, rucks and small forwards, all trouble.

Bews inclusion is a necessity this week.

 

[Mr Meow]

Like it or not, beating Saints is not just going to happen because we are favourites. We are flaky away from home, they have run into form, and we are depleted

Like it or not, diminishing expectations for likely events isn't as effective a coping mechanism as you think it is.

Demolishing Richmond at Marvel is something the Bulldogs did as recently as a week ago and look how awful they were today. It's not a form indicator at all.

A 2 goal win and 8 point loss against Port and Collingwood has us well prepared for this challenge.

Season completely alive and exciting.

 

[Vdubs]

Bews inclusion is a necessity this week.

It is if he was fit, but he hasn't been, and I've thought he has looked a lot heavier, stockier than usual. Could just be me looking at him when he was labouring with pain from injury.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Like it or not, beating Saints is not just going to happen because we are favourites. We are flaky away from home, they have run into form, and we are depleted

They are playing richmond who are crap.

For about the last 6 weeks st kilda have been awful they almost lost to north of all people.

We will have to play well but we can beat them and if hawk and guthrie play we arent that depleted.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Port doing a good job for us so far. If it keeps tracking this way it puts gws below us unless they beat carlton.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Their MF, running HB, rucks and small forwards, all trouble.
Saints will be 6th tonight, Bulldogs 8th, but Doggies have a guaranteed win next week.

Yes but now the dogs cant get to 50 points without going through us.

We can get to 50.

 

[foxdog50]

Beating St Kilda is no guarantee... They do play Marvel bloody well and play it regularly..

 

[STPer18]

Pump Saints + pump Dogs = play finals.

Get it done.