Haven’t beaten GWS since 2020
Prediction 2024 Expectations Thread (with poll!!!)
- Thread starter relapse
- Start date
- Tagged users None
Kane McGoodwin
Make me an Admin!
- May 21, 2001
- 81,477
- 82,045
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
- Other Teams
- Adelaide Crows
Winning streaks against rival clubs
Their first ever win was against Port Adelaide. And Port hasn’t lost to em since
www.bigfooty.com
Losing streak to...
Pies 8 games
Dons 6 games
- Jul 8, 2016
- 3,688
- 4,564
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
This is the year for both.
- Sep 28, 2016
- 9,820
- 19,316
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
The more I think about it the more I feel like Tex will come out on fire this season.
TT was looking like a player who could potentially absorb 10-15% of his Targets inside 50 this year. Now that same number will likely boost Tex's targets.
Plus I feel like we are primed for the best I50 work we've had in this regime. He could well be leading the Coleman by round 10 if he stays fit.
TT was looking like a player who could potentially absorb 10-15% of his Targets inside 50 this year. Now that same number will likely boost Tex's targets.
Plus I feel like we are primed for the best I50 work we've had in this regime. He could well be leading the Coleman by round 10 if he stays fit.
Fog has to be the one to step up this year.
He needs to be at or around 50 goals for the season for us to be looking at sustainable sucess.
He needs to be at or around 50 goals for the season for us to be looking at sustainable sucess.
Multiballz
Team Captain
- Feb 21, 2023
- 558
- 711
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
Winning streaks against rival clubs
Their first ever win was against Port Adelaide. And Port hasn’t lost to em since
Losing streak to...
Pies 8 games
Dons 6 games
I can accept losing to Collingwood in recent times. Essendon, not so much.
Golumless
A bigger deal out west.
The problem here, as always with forwards expectations this year, is Tex.
If Tex is still playing like an elite key forward, it does not matter how good Fog plays, he won't push 50. Especially factoring that our small forward options will also take up a considerable amount of goals.
Really, for Fog to get around the 50 goal mark, something has to happen to Tex.
yep, Tex is the main focus, but Fog should be stepping up, especially in the absence of TT to be a more dominant forward. Maybe 50 is a big ask, but he did nearly get 40 last year. (Edit- okay 34)
Turns 25 this year, so he should be taking focus off of Tex, its going to be a worry if Tex once again our main KF.
Fog is definitely a part player until Tex retires. His role is to work around Tex, not be the main man. He'll break out when Tex has retired.
Golumless
A bigger deal out west.
40 goals is a reasonable expectation for a healthy Fog. 45 is likely a best case scenario.
The thing that limits a guy like Fogarty in this situation is supply. If Tex is still putting up A-grade numbers, and alongside someone like Rankine, too many shots/opportunities get taken off the table for a guy like Fogarty to put up big numbers in his own right. It's counter-intuitive, but a forward line with an even spread of contributors is one bereft of talented players, not one with talent because talent demands opportunities and an abundance of talent will inevitably limit some of it from hitting their own ceiling.
A good example of this is our shots for goal in 2023, especially as this is an example of a team who is able to do what they want on the outside of the ball - and only including players who were best 22 for a stretch:
Tex: 5.9
Rankine: 4
Fogarty: 3
Rachele: 2.8
McAdam: 2.6
Pedlar: 2.5
Keays: 2.1
TT, Murphy, Dawson, Soligo 1-1.5
A guy generating 3 shots is just not going to get near 50 and it's somewhat likely these numbers lower in 2024 as we likely shift away from a hyper-offensive side. Even a Rankine shift towards midfield isn't likely to help Fogarty as it's likely that load falls to an equally talented Rachele, or Pedlar.
It's not concerning at all if Tex is hitting 50+ as a 1st key forward. That says everything is working as intended. Even a scenario where both Tex/Fog hit the 40-50 range isn't concerning with Tex as our main forward. The only point Tex is our main KPF is concerning is if he struggles to hit 45 and Fog barely scratches 30 but the reason that's concerning is it implies our outside game has fallen over.
Possible, but it's hard to say at this point.
It depends on when Tex goes because it could easily be a situation where it's Thilthorpe breaking out, not Fogarty. Thilthorpe is pretty much born for that CHF role.
Great post, love it.
My thought's were that Fog would take some of those shots from Tex, derived from both players kicking to him over Tex and him creating those shots
My concern is Fog breaking out when tex retired is overly hopeful if he cant take opportunities off a soon to be 34 year old who may not play all games.
I dont want anyone to misconstrue this as a knock of Fog.
- Nov 5, 2009
- 10,065
- 9,272
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
People acting like TT going out and missing the first half of the year is going to massively hinder our finals chances.
A breakout would have been absolutely brilliant in 2024 and he was having a wonderful preseason, but lets not forget we were so close to the finals last year with TT averaging 10 touches, 3.5 marks, 5.5 hitouts and .9 goals per game.
We have recruited a 28 year old mature body who kicked 103 goals in the VFL the past two years. And in his 5 years with the Suns averaged 8.2 touches, 3.1 marks, 5.1 hitouts and .4 goals per game.
A breakout would have been absolutely brilliant in 2024 and he was having a wonderful preseason, but lets not forget we were so close to the finals last year with TT averaging 10 touches, 3.5 marks, 5.5 hitouts and .9 goals per game.
We have recruited a 28 year old mature body who kicked 103 goals in the VFL the past two years. And in his 5 years with the Suns averaged 8.2 touches, 3.1 marks, 5.1 hitouts and .4 goals per game.
- Nov 5, 2009
- 10,065
- 9,272
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
No. This is just an excuse.
Key forwards can co-exist -just like FOG and Walker did in the first 4 games they played together in 2023.
Rounds 1,2,5,6.
FOG - 13.5
Walker - 10.9
Walker missed 5 games over the past 2 years. Fog kicked 5 goals, 5 behinds and in those 5 games and averaged 7 touches.
Walker has proven throughout his career that other forwards can be successful alongside him - (Tippett/Jenkins).
FOG needs to pull it together in 2024. Pay that psychiatrist that he has been seeing overtime and get his head right to dominate. The only thing that can stop the FOG from having a dominant season is FOG.
Mr MysteryGuest
Norm Smith Medallist
- Apr 4, 2015
- 8,291
- 8,568
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
not necessarily, we should be able have multiple players kicking over 40 goals. Might mean Tex is on 50-60 instead of 70+.
What do you mean by something has to happen to Tex?
There’s still plenty of room for growth in our forward line, we are still a couple hundred points behind where we were in 16/17, even with the extra games. Obviously need to generate more opportunities from the midfield as well.
Golumless
A bigger deal out west.
It's possible Fog will pick up some more shots, but it's also worth noting, Fog picking up those shots over Tex does mean our outside game is breaking down more frequently if Tex is still performing. You don't go to the backup if the main guy is hot and in a good situation.
There is no knock on Fog whatsoever if he can't take those opportunities off a red hot Tex. The Tex we had in 2023 for instance is top 3 in the league - that's the ceiling Fog is fighting against.
Our '17 forward line was the 2nd most productive forward line in modern history and as much the result of a balls to the wall structure - and one that eventually came back to bite us in the grand final - then something replicatable.
It is very likely there is little to no room for growth in our forward line. We're already at 95 points per game and it's quite rare to see teams breach the 100 points per game average, with the best offenses tending to cap out at 95--99 points in recent times (you'd have to go back to Melbourne 2018 for the last team to breach 100 average). Especially as if we do aim to turn 2023 into a proper contender, it's likely the offensive numbers are pulled back a tad to really nail down the defensive side of the game - after all, you can't win without being a miser.
So yeah, something would have to happen to Tex for Fog numbers to pick up to that ~50 goal mark.
Last edited:
Yeh, our key forward pick 2 from 4 years ago is no different to the 40 game 26 year old we just got from Gold Coast for nothing in a pick/point swap. Us ascending the ladder is predicated upon improvement from players in the 2-4 year bracket.
- Nov 5, 2009
- 10,065
- 9,272
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
Well in output there isn't a massive difference between what TT produced in 2023 and what Burgess has shown over his career.
TT was our 7th most important forward with regards to goals in 2023 - behind Walker, FOG, Rankine, Rachele, Pedlar and Keys. All 6 of those players are returning in 2024 so our forward line should be just as potent in 2024.
We don't need Burgess or Gollant to come in and dominate- they just need to play a role up forward until TT gets back.
Key word is players. He is one of a group of players. Improvement can come from plenty others - Soligo, Rachele, Berry, Worrell, Pedlar, Max, Cook and Gollant.
He can still be back in time for finals which we should make - regardless of his availability.
- Nov 5, 2009
- 10,065
- 9,272
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
85% of us think we'll make finals
We should. We have the cattle.
Give this list to a coach that has an ounce of tactical nous and we are a lock for finals.
And?85% of us think we'll make finals
- May 16, 2015
- 13,039
- 17,447
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
- Other Teams
- WWTFC,Chelsea,Glasgow Celtic,Lech Poznan
Round 1 ok but watching other matches I suspect we will end up 10th atm unless we have a massive breakout. Last night we were totally uninspiring. Don't let the final score fool us.
- Jul 6, 2017
- 28,623
- 38,210
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
I am expecting us to spank geelong this week. Totally different playing conditions and coming off a good last 1/4 that i expect them to carry into this game. Then our season will properly start
