eth-dog
Tier 1 WW Player
Observations:
Essendon: Played the first draw of the season, occurring in the last round of the Home and Away season. A couple of defensive lapses and poor goalkicking cost Essendon the win, with usually very reliable players in Brendan Goddard and Paul Chapman a couple of the offenders. Selecting 2 key defenders against 3 tall forwards in Waite, Casboult and Watson.
North Melbourne: Played a reasonably comfortable match against Melbourne, getting out to a lead and holding them at arms length for the rest of the match. Young key forward Mason Wood gave a good first impression, kicking 3 goals on debut under the roof at Docklands.
Head to head (last 5): North Melbourne 3-2 Essendon
Form guide
Essendon 2 W, 2 L, 1 D
North Melbourne 4 W, 1 L
Sportsbet odds:
North Melbourne: $1.67, line ($1.92): -6.5
Essendon: $2.20, line ($1.92): +6.5
Possible sides:
North Melbourne vs Essendon
B: McDonald - Thompson - Firrito
F: Chapman - Bellchambers - Watson
HB: Atley - Grima - Wright
HF: Z Merrett - Daniher - Goddard
C: Wells - Swallow - Dal Santo
C: Zaharakis - Myers - Stanton
HF: Turner - Brown - Adams
HB: Hibberd - Hooker - Winderlich
F: Black - Petrie - Thomas
B: Hurley - Steinberg - Dempsey
R: Goldstein - Cunnington - Ziebell
R: Ryder - Heppell - Hocking
I: Greenwood - Bastinac - Jacobs
I: Colyer - Gleeson - Ambrose
S: Mullett
S: Howlett
North Melbourne defence vs Essendon forward line
Essendon's forward line has been cataclysmic at times this season, there is a lack of basic movement up there at times and when they do get moving there has been poor kicking for goal, statistically one of the least accurate sides in the league. When Bellchambers, Ryder and Daniher all play in the same side however the side averages more than a goal then when they're not, so playing the 2 ruckmen is crucial for Essendon's offensive prowess. Patrick Ambrose will be important, he needs to engage and break even against Hansen, who is important for North to cut off attacks.
Midfield battle (rucks included)
This is where it will be won and lost, no surprises. Cleanliness will be the key, if Essendon's pressure is good enough and they shut down their highly skilled midfielders in Wells, Dal Santo and Atley when he pushes up there the game will be on their terms. North's key will to be dominant in the clearances, as most of their engine room in Ziebell, Cunnington, Swallow, Adams, Bastinac and Greenwood have average to poor skills. Essendon will want to break even in the clearances, as North have the stronger bodies around the ball, and try to beat them on the spread with outside runners of the like of Zaharakis, Stanton and Colyer. The ruck battle is a truly fascinating one, Ryder and Bellchambers as a combination makes Essendon offensively a better side, and on a big ground like the MCG Ryder can really exploit Goldstein around the ground. In terms of actual hitouts, Bellchambers/Ryder together average 37 hitouts, which might be enough to break even with Goldstein.
North Melbourne forward line vs Essendon defence
This will be an interesting match-up, especially with no Mark Baguley for Essendon, who is the nominal #1 small defender to match up on Thomas. This will leave Dempsey in a lock down role while relying on Hibberd and Winderlich to provide the rebound more often. Last time these 2 sides met Essendon big man Cale Hooker was just about best on ground, keeping Drew Petrie to 3 disposals (2 of which were while directly opposed to Ryder in the ruck) and 0 goals while collecting 26 touches and 16 marks. That match-up is the important one for both offensive and defensive reasons for both sides, Hooker's intercepting marks a big rebounding factor for the Dons. Michael Hurley on Aaron Black will also be interesting, Hurley gave Black a bath earlier in the season as well.
X-Factor player
Luke McDonald hasn't had the hype or the fanfare about in in the rising star award, but has quietly gone about his business methodically and has entrenched himself in a very strong back 6. Averaging 17 touches, 4 marks and 3 tackles a game, he quietly but effectively does his business and looks like a 100 game player for North Melbourne
Keys for each side
Essendon:
Tip
The pair are the least accurate teams in the top 8, but both defenses have been resolute for the most part this season. Hard to split, so Essendon by 5
Essendon: Played the first draw of the season, occurring in the last round of the Home and Away season. A couple of defensive lapses and poor goalkicking cost Essendon the win, with usually very reliable players in Brendan Goddard and Paul Chapman a couple of the offenders. Selecting 2 key defenders against 3 tall forwards in Waite, Casboult and Watson.
North Melbourne: Played a reasonably comfortable match against Melbourne, getting out to a lead and holding them at arms length for the rest of the match. Young key forward Mason Wood gave a good first impression, kicking 3 goals on debut under the roof at Docklands.
Head to head (last 5): North Melbourne 3-2 Essendon
Form guide
Essendon 2 W, 2 L, 1 D
North Melbourne 4 W, 1 L
Sportsbet odds:
North Melbourne: $1.67, line ($1.92): -6.5
Essendon: $2.20, line ($1.92): +6.5
Possible sides:
North Melbourne vs Essendon
B: McDonald - Thompson - Firrito
F: Chapman - Bellchambers - Watson
HB: Atley - Grima - Wright
HF: Z Merrett - Daniher - Goddard
C: Wells - Swallow - Dal Santo
C: Zaharakis - Myers - Stanton
HF: Turner - Brown - Adams
HB: Hibberd - Hooker - Winderlich
F: Black - Petrie - Thomas
B: Hurley - Steinberg - Dempsey
R: Goldstein - Cunnington - Ziebell
R: Ryder - Heppell - Hocking
I: Greenwood - Bastinac - Jacobs
I: Colyer - Gleeson - Ambrose
S: Mullett
S: Howlett
North Melbourne defence vs Essendon forward line
Essendon's forward line has been cataclysmic at times this season, there is a lack of basic movement up there at times and when they do get moving there has been poor kicking for goal, statistically one of the least accurate sides in the league. When Bellchambers, Ryder and Daniher all play in the same side however the side averages more than a goal then when they're not, so playing the 2 ruckmen is crucial for Essendon's offensive prowess. Patrick Ambrose will be important, he needs to engage and break even against Hansen, who is important for North to cut off attacks.
Midfield battle (rucks included)
This is where it will be won and lost, no surprises. Cleanliness will be the key, if Essendon's pressure is good enough and they shut down their highly skilled midfielders in Wells, Dal Santo and Atley when he pushes up there the game will be on their terms. North's key will to be dominant in the clearances, as most of their engine room in Ziebell, Cunnington, Swallow, Adams, Bastinac and Greenwood have average to poor skills. Essendon will want to break even in the clearances, as North have the stronger bodies around the ball, and try to beat them on the spread with outside runners of the like of Zaharakis, Stanton and Colyer. The ruck battle is a truly fascinating one, Ryder and Bellchambers as a combination makes Essendon offensively a better side, and on a big ground like the MCG Ryder can really exploit Goldstein around the ground. In terms of actual hitouts, Bellchambers/Ryder together average 37 hitouts, which might be enough to break even with Goldstein.
North Melbourne forward line vs Essendon defence
This will be an interesting match-up, especially with no Mark Baguley for Essendon, who is the nominal #1 small defender to match up on Thomas. This will leave Dempsey in a lock down role while relying on Hibberd and Winderlich to provide the rebound more often. Last time these 2 sides met Essendon big man Cale Hooker was just about best on ground, keeping Drew Petrie to 3 disposals (2 of which were while directly opposed to Ryder in the ruck) and 0 goals while collecting 26 touches and 16 marks. That match-up is the important one for both offensive and defensive reasons for both sides, Hooker's intercepting marks a big rebounding factor for the Dons. Michael Hurley on Aaron Black will also be interesting, Hurley gave Black a bath earlier in the season as well.
X-Factor player
Luke McDonald hasn't had the hype or the fanfare about in in the rising star award, but has quietly gone about his business methodically and has entrenched himself in a very strong back 6. Averaging 17 touches, 4 marks and 3 tackles a game, he quietly but effectively does his business and looks like a 100 game player for North Melbourne
Keys for each side
Essendon:
- Defensive lapses. It happened on 2 occassions vs Carlton, and good offensive teams will get a run on from there.
- Clearances. Essendon have been pretty good in this area, but this is the big one for North's offensive game.
Tip
The pair are the least accurate teams in the top 8, but both defenses have been resolute for the most part this season. Hard to split, so Essendon by 5
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