What would you like to see from the second half of the year.
2nd half of the year
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Ninty
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option 4 if it said:
Get on a roll and win every final and everyone talks up back to back in '07!
otherwise, option 1.
Get on a roll and win every final and everyone talks up back to back in '07!
otherwise, option 1.
- Thread starter
- #4
I would love to have a top 4 draft pick, especially this year. I would rest Harley and King for the remainder of the season and let them concentrate on getting there bodies ready for next season. I would play Nathan Ablett at full forward, Mark Blake in the ruck, Matthew Spencer at centre half back, Mathew Egan at full back and Stokes, Byrnes and Prismall to get full games. If any player had a slight niggle I would rest them.
I would not play guys that we don't think will be here next year. Lonergan, Gardiner, McCarthy, Koulouriotis, Slade, Kingsley etc. I would rather see guys like Gamble, Grima and Varcoe play even if they are not quite ready.
By the way, I think we will definately lose to Fremantle, Adelaide, Bulldogs, Melbourne, St Kilda, Sydney and Brisbane anyway. So it's not as if we are going to have to try that hard to lose.
I would not play guys that we don't think will be here next year. Lonergan, Gardiner, McCarthy, Koulouriotis, Slade, Kingsley etc. I would rather see guys like Gamble, Grima and Varcoe play even if they are not quite ready.
By the way, I think we will definately lose to Fremantle, Adelaide, Bulldogs, Melbourne, St Kilda, Sydney and Brisbane anyway. So it's not as if we are going to have to try that hard to lose.
catempire
Premium Platinum
I’ll take any of these options:
Option 5 – win 10 of the last 11 and finish fourth and get the double chance
Option 6 – win 9 of the last 11 and finish fifth and get a home final
Option 7 – win 8 of the last 11 and finish sixth and get a home final
Option 8 - win 6 or 7 of the last 11 and make the finals
There is only 1 match that I can't see us having any chance of winning - Adelaide in round 13. We are a chance in every other match.
I can't condone tanking so long as there is a chance that we can play a part in September.
Option 5 – win 10 of the last 11 and finish fourth and get the double chance
Option 6 – win 9 of the last 11 and finish fifth and get a home final
Option 7 – win 8 of the last 11 and finish sixth and get a home final
Option 8 - win 6 or 7 of the last 11 and make the finals
There is only 1 match that I can't see us having any chance of winning - Adelaide in round 13. We are a chance in every other match.
I can't condone tanking so long as there is a chance that we can play a part in September.
Option four is most appealing, I still don't think that a team rated by 95% of the football community at the start of the season to be top four and possible premier, cannot get on a roll.
Yes, we look ****house at times, and (as flogged to death) especially late in the game. However I think that the confidence we would gain from getting into the finals from here, would enable us to have a fair crack at the finals. If (massive ifs) King and Harley play all games from now, they will make an emormous difference, and if we can stay 95% injury free, it's not out of the question to finish the year successfully. We will start the finals in an historically difficult position, but as stated the confidence would be right up, and history needs to be broken.
The draft - Regardless of our finish, our first pick (as a minimum) will be touted as being in our top 22 in a year or so, add Tommyboy to this, together with Prismal, Varcoe and possibly Stokes looking like permanent seniors in the future, and we have injected 5 guns to our team.
As most of our current guns are 20-26 years old, the future should provide us with at least 5-8 years of having a big crack at the flag.
Yes, we look ****house at times, and (as flogged to death) especially late in the game. However I think that the confidence we would gain from getting into the finals from here, would enable us to have a fair crack at the finals. If (massive ifs) King and Harley play all games from now, they will make an emormous difference, and if we can stay 95% injury free, it's not out of the question to finish the year successfully. We will start the finals in an historically difficult position, but as stated the confidence would be right up, and history needs to be broken.
The draft - Regardless of our finish, our first pick (as a minimum) will be touted as being in our top 22 in a year or so, add Tommyboy to this, together with Prismal, Varcoe and possibly Stokes looking like permanent seniors in the future, and we have injected 5 guns to our team.
As most of our current guns are 20-26 years old, the future should provide us with at least 5-8 years of having a big crack at the flag.
- Banned
- #9
As gloomy as this year has been thus far we shouldn't be tanking just yet.
We should play our guts out with the strongest team possible to see if we can make the 8.
If that fails in the next 4-5 weeks then start playing the young guys and thinking about 07, but tanking right now will not be on the minds of the coaching staff and a number of players who are no doubt still fighting for their careers.
We should play our guts out with the strongest team possible to see if we can make the 8.
If that fails in the next 4-5 weeks then start playing the young guys and thinking about 07, but tanking right now will not be on the minds of the coaching staff and a number of players who are no doubt still fighting for their careers.
Can anyone honestly answer that they think we will win the Flag now in 06?
If not , I see no purpose at all in any option other than #1.
Im not saying to tank games but we must do an audit of our list. All players must be judged and considered either a consistant contributer at an excellent level(eg. G Ablett, M.Scarlett etc) or be considered to have enough improvement in them to be at that level in the future(Tenace, Prismall, N.Ablett ) to be worth a place on our list.To do this we must play guys who we must judge and perhaps cut.
I believe we must prune some of our fringe players, enough with good blokes with the ability to add to the mix, we need to add to the top of our list not the bottom 15-22. So with that in mind some players will have to be let go that probably could be good players at another club and maybe a reasonable support for us. Thurley is a good example , a handy player but really he will be a fringe player at most clubs and we dont lack fringe guys. Has it hurt us , him going? Not really , Stokes looks to be an ample replacement and was picked up with a very late pick. Now, Id much prefer to trade any of these players just like Chambers but ruckmen are so rare that even a fringe ones will return you a pick, most fringes on our list would struggle to raise interest. Look at Bowden Jr. going from the Dogs to Richmond ,a 191cm fringe player that they got for P55 right now it looks cheap but without trying to make it work for the family reasons he may well have been worth zero.
I'd say it would be players mostly in our best 18 that would garner interest or at a minimum guys who could step in and contribute from day 1 at a new club. Id say we mostly would be chasing picks higher than this because any pick obtained in trades must be used. So to get any extra picks in the top 2 rounds it will cost us a player we dont want to see go. Maybe an Enright , maybe a Wojo , maybe a D or S Johnson , maybe..who knows but short term pain is sometimes necessary for the long term best
If not , I see no purpose at all in any option other than #1.
Im not saying to tank games but we must do an audit of our list. All players must be judged and considered either a consistant contributer at an excellent level(eg. G Ablett, M.Scarlett etc) or be considered to have enough improvement in them to be at that level in the future(Tenace, Prismall, N.Ablett ) to be worth a place on our list.To do this we must play guys who we must judge and perhaps cut.
I believe we must prune some of our fringe players, enough with good blokes with the ability to add to the mix, we need to add to the top of our list not the bottom 15-22. So with that in mind some players will have to be let go that probably could be good players at another club and maybe a reasonable support for us. Thurley is a good example , a handy player but really he will be a fringe player at most clubs and we dont lack fringe guys. Has it hurt us , him going? Not really , Stokes looks to be an ample replacement and was picked up with a very late pick. Now, Id much prefer to trade any of these players just like Chambers but ruckmen are so rare that even a fringe ones will return you a pick, most fringes on our list would struggle to raise interest. Look at Bowden Jr. going from the Dogs to Richmond ,a 191cm fringe player that they got for P55 right now it looks cheap but without trying to make it work for the family reasons he may well have been worth zero.
I'd say it would be players mostly in our best 18 that would garner interest or at a minimum guys who could step in and contribute from day 1 at a new club. Id say we mostly would be chasing picks higher than this because any pick obtained in trades must be used. So to get any extra picks in the top 2 rounds it will cost us a player we dont want to see go. Maybe an Enright , maybe a Wojo , maybe a D or S Johnson , maybe..who knows but short term pain is sometimes necessary for the long term best
Very suprised by the amount of people who want to finish bottom 4....
Mr_Cat_Man
Rookie
- Apr 16, 2006
- 39
- 0
- AFL Club
- Geelong
I hope as much as anyone we push hard toward the finals and things turn. On the flipside as horrible as it is to watch the team lose finishing around 13th would be of far greater benefit than say 8th, 9th or 10th. At least we will get a high pick and and build a better foundation for the future. I think we have a good group of players and with confidence and some additions to our forward line will be a serious challenger in the next 3 years. It is a shame that up to this point things have turned out this way but perhaps this will be a year we we can find out exactly what we need to become a better football team. Our time is soon and i hope like anything we make the most of it.
catempire
Premium Platinum
Turbocat said:
TC, can the supporters of any team? Some will be more confident than others, but any team is a chance as long as it's mathematically possible.
Can we win the flag? It is within the realms of possibility. We must pursue the chance, no matter how slim.
This is an argument between the pragmatists and the romantacists.
The pragmatists (or maybe realists) accept that Geelong whilst having a very good list lack the essential elements to win a premiership - one or two gun champion forwards. They see a unique opportunity to pick up these two guns (Hawkins and top five draft pick) and therefore for the first time in 12 years have a forward line and therefore a team that would be feared by all and sundry. They know that these opportunties only come round very rarely - that trying to develop a match-winning key position player taken later in the draft is rarely successful and takes a long time in any case. They have seen that Geelong has tried developing numerous forwards over the years with little success (i.e. Playfair, Lonergan, McCarthy, Jason Mooney, Mensch, that hack from West Coast etc etc.). They see that they are getting older and that time is running out to see Geelong win a premiership. They see other teams that have bottomed out getting these high draft picks and cynically exploiting the draft to win a premiership. They wish Geelong would do the same because they know when the final siren sounds in the grand final and they have won they won't give a flying f*ck that they have exploited the draft.
The romantacists, however believe that we can keep doing what we have been doing for the last forty years (even though the draft has not been going for that long it sounds good anyway) and that despite their being more chance of winning tatts on Saturday night that you never know - we just might have Playfair and Kingsley stand up over an entire finals series and kick 30 goals between them and they are delirious and......IT JUST WON'T HAPPEN...
So in summary we should tank.
The pragmatists (or maybe realists) accept that Geelong whilst having a very good list lack the essential elements to win a premiership - one or two gun champion forwards. They see a unique opportunity to pick up these two guns (Hawkins and top five draft pick) and therefore for the first time in 12 years have a forward line and therefore a team that would be feared by all and sundry. They know that these opportunties only come round very rarely - that trying to develop a match-winning key position player taken later in the draft is rarely successful and takes a long time in any case. They have seen that Geelong has tried developing numerous forwards over the years with little success (i.e. Playfair, Lonergan, McCarthy, Jason Mooney, Mensch, that hack from West Coast etc etc.). They see that they are getting older and that time is running out to see Geelong win a premiership. They see other teams that have bottomed out getting these high draft picks and cynically exploiting the draft to win a premiership. They wish Geelong would do the same because they know when the final siren sounds in the grand final and they have won they won't give a flying f*ck that they have exploited the draft.
The romantacists, however believe that we can keep doing what we have been doing for the last forty years (even though the draft has not been going for that long it sounds good anyway) and that despite their being more chance of winning tatts on Saturday night that you never know - we just might have Playfair and Kingsley stand up over an entire finals series and kick 30 goals between them and they are delirious and......IT JUST WON'T HAPPEN...
So in summary we should tank.
catempire
Premium Platinum
Mr Of The Cat,
Kingsley and Playfair needn't kick 30 goals between them for Geelong to win a premiership. West Coast were a kick away from a flag with a forward line no better than ours. Could easily have done it.
No doubt we could do with a top line FF and CHF. But are we 4 and 7 because a lack of them? Hell no. We're 4 and 7 because the whole team has played like pus.
If we tank now we write off the next 3 years. I don't our list is that bad that we need to do that.
Kingsley and Playfair needn't kick 30 goals between them for Geelong to win a premiership. West Coast were a kick away from a flag with a forward line no better than ours. Could easily have done it.
No doubt we could do with a top line FF and CHF. But are we 4 and 7 because a lack of them? Hell no. We're 4 and 7 because the whole team has played like pus.
If we tank now we write off the next 3 years. I don't our list is that bad that we need to do that.
catempire said:
Same here.
If things go our way, we could be in the eight in 4 weeks...
rd12
Geelong beat Freo (Sub)
Richmond beat Hawks (Tas)
Port beat West Coast (AAMI)
rd13
Adelaide beat Geelong (AAMI)
Collingwood beat Richmond (MCG)
Sydney beat Freo (SCG)
Melbourne beat Port (MCG)
rd14
Geelong beat Carlton (TD)
Freo beat Essendon (Sub)
Port beat Richmond (AAMI)
rd15
Geelong beat Port (Skilled)
Melbourne beat Richmond (MCG)
Collingwood beat Freo (MCG)
doesn't seem impossible IMO.
If we happened to beat Adelaide too, we'd be there in 3 weeks.
Port wont be a problem unless they beat both WC and Melb.
http://www.allthestats.com/fun/ladpredict.php
catempire said:
1. West Coast has a midfield with Cousins, Kerr, Embley, Fletcher and a guy called Judd which I just reckon makes it about five times better than our own which I do actually rate pretty highly - just West Coasts is a lot better hence the reason they got as close as they did. But they didn't win did they with an even better midfield so you are actually supporting my argument. We wouldn't get close.
2. Playfair and Kingsley are by no means the sole reason we are 4-7. However it must be terribly frustrating to be in the Geelong's midfield and have the ball come straight back from most forward thrusts. You may say we won the first two matches by 10 goals but as we have seen both Brisbane and the Kangaroos are not much.
3. By tanking (or I prefer it to be known as "giving the whole list an opportunity to have a game in the ones") we will not write off three years. Why? We still have a great nucleus of young players in G.Ablett, Chapman, S.Johnson, Kelly, Corey, Tenace, Varcoe (?), N.Ablett etc. All we are doing is adding to this talent with two the best talls in the country. How can that be going backwards. Playfair is not actually on my list to delist at the end of the year - however if a suitable trade came up then that would be ok. With a forward line of:
Chapman Hawkins S.Johnson
G.Ablett (first draft pick) Mooney
I reckon you have a forward line in a couple of years that would be awesome. I agree that sometimes you may have to go slightly back to go forward but in this case I don't reckon you would be going back. By all reports Hawkins is a monster and will be able to play seniors from the start and I reckon with a pre-season the other kid may not be too far behind. If he is then play N.Ablett at FF.
You are right - our list is not that bad but it is not going to win us a premiership pure and simple.
catempire
Premium Platinum
yotc,
You may be right about West Coast - it's a popular argument. I don't agree with it because while I think what West Coast (probably, on paper) has over us in the midfield department, I believe we make up for in other departments. They were a goal away from a flag. Not much else would have to have gone right for them to have won, no doubt in my mind. In the same position, I believe so could have we. We could argue all night about whether this is the case. I can't be bothered though.
"...it must be terribly frustrating to be in the Geelong's midfield and have the ball come straight back from most forward thrusts..." - conversely, it must be terribly frustrating for the likes of Kingsley and Playfair to have the ball continuosly kicked over your head, at your feet or to your opponent. Something Geelong's midfield seems quite adept at at the moment. I'm sure Hawkins and his KPP mate will find it equally as frustrating should this situation not improve.
Didn't say tanking was going backwards. It is however accepting that what we have isn't good enough and that it will take new blood to bring it to premiership standard. Those who believe Hawkins (and Gumbleton or whoever) would be able to step straight into the 1s next season and take us to the next level are deluded. It will take years for this year's draft picks to come into their own. KPPs are notorious for taking even longer. So to bank on draft picks taking us to the next level is to accept that it will be a few years off.
You may be right about West Coast - it's a popular argument. I don't agree with it because while I think what West Coast (probably, on paper) has over us in the midfield department, I believe we make up for in other departments. They were a goal away from a flag. Not much else would have to have gone right for them to have won, no doubt in my mind. In the same position, I believe so could have we. We could argue all night about whether this is the case. I can't be bothered though.
"...it must be terribly frustrating to be in the Geelong's midfield and have the ball come straight back from most forward thrusts..." - conversely, it must be terribly frustrating for the likes of Kingsley and Playfair to have the ball continuosly kicked over your head, at your feet or to your opponent. Something Geelong's midfield seems quite adept at at the moment. I'm sure Hawkins and his KPP mate will find it equally as frustrating should this situation not improve.
Didn't say tanking was going backwards. It is however accepting that what we have isn't good enough and that it will take new blood to bring it to premiership standard. Those who believe Hawkins (and Gumbleton or whoever) would be able to step straight into the 1s next season and take us to the next level are deluded. It will take years for this year's draft picks to come into their own. KPPs are notorious for taking even longer. So to bank on draft picks taking us to the next level is to accept that it will be a few years off.
catempire said:
Have to say this thread has had some very good posts , YOTC and CE , top stuff. Opinions can differ but both of you can make a good case.
CE , you are correct that no supporter knows for sure that their team will win but I dare say that a certain supporters might THINK they have a very real chance of winning this year, right now
West Coast , I they were my team I'd say that they would have a very high chance of winning. The experience last year, the come backs this year without Judd all would be confidence enhancing.
Adelaide , Also I's day their supporters would think they have a high chance. Their form has been outstanding
Pies,Swans and Demons would also say they have the form to convince them of a legit chance of the Flag.
on the otherhand , Geelong's season hardly fills me with confidence. Could we turn it round and make the 8. Yes , it wouldn't suprise me at all , in essence we have a good group.Good to very good, but its not great. Playing at our best we can run with most, however when I look at our list and compare it the sides we are trying to beat , its rare that I think our list is better on paper. As YOTC so dryly refered to in his post , I think we have a patch of Blue Sky here to maxmize this poor year, increase the quality of our week areas for us to build upon for the next 5-8 years. I dont think this would mean we would be condemed to go backwards for 2-3 years , mostly Im talking about adding to our main group , maybe at the cost of one or two regulars increase our inert talent giving our training staff some better clay to mould with.
Can we get in the 8 yes , but with such a poor run with injuries and form I doubt the finals would be anything other than turning up and copping what we did to Melb. last year.I see Pies playing well this year after two poor years , did they "Tank" last year or just let all their sus players get back to max health? If the guys we have in the V's were up to it they would have stepped up in our time of need, they didn't so now I think we must try get our main guys fit and healthy , sort out who is staying long term and improve our list. I understand your point of view, I just feel that we must bide our time and increase our chances of winning when we get there.
catempire
Premium Platinum
TC, don’t disagree with any of this.
Collingwood are being held up this year as the example of a team who “had a bad year in order to move forward”. You’re exactly right in saying that they have benefited from getting all their top line players back to full health. It has had nothing to do with tanking and getting quality picks, clearly, because none of their picks from 2005 are the reason they are playing so well now (Thomas has been good but has faded recently and they would be where they are now even without him).
I suppose where our opinions differ is that I don’t think we should follow the Collingwood route until we’re at the point where it is no longer possible to challenge for the flag. That may only be two weeks away if we lose the next two. Having to win 8 out of the last 9 would be very tough indeed. In two weeks time, we’ll pretty much know whether this season is gone or not. At that point in time, I’m quite happy to tell Kingy, Harley, SJ, Ottens and Riccardi to park it on the pine and give the spots to those whose careers are on the line or those who would benefit from the experience.
Collingwood are being held up this year as the example of a team who “had a bad year in order to move forward”. You’re exactly right in saying that they have benefited from getting all their top line players back to full health. It has had nothing to do with tanking and getting quality picks, clearly, because none of their picks from 2005 are the reason they are playing so well now (Thomas has been good but has faded recently and they would be where they are now even without him).
I suppose where our opinions differ is that I don’t think we should follow the Collingwood route until we’re at the point where it is no longer possible to challenge for the flag. That may only be two weeks away if we lose the next two. Having to win 8 out of the last 9 would be very tough indeed. In two weeks time, we’ll pretty much know whether this season is gone or not. At that point in time, I’m quite happy to tell Kingy, Harley, SJ, Ottens and Riccardi to park it on the pine and give the spots to those whose careers are on the line or those who would benefit from the experience.
costanza23
Team Captain
Not Ottens though, he's been very good in the ruck this year (I think he's better than King).catempire said:
But he does need to also get some more goals this year too. He's done well to play all of the games so far this season and hopefully he can continue it. But once King comes back in, they need to also keep Blake in, so we don't have to use Otto as the 2nd ruckman. We'd use Blake and keep Otto in the goal square for the whole game. I like the Mooney CHF / Ottens FF combo better than Playfair CHF / Kingsley FF. I think Otto's only kicked 6.7 goals - not very accurate and down on last season (understanding since been no.1 ruckman). And he still hasn't kicked 2+ goals a game this year or 3+ goals since joining the club. I'd like to see him get a 4 or 5 goal haul sometime this year in a game.
I've just gone on a tangent, but on the actual topic on the 2nd Half of the Year, I see 2 things that should happen:
1) Keep winning and just make the 8.
2) Tank and get 13th-15th.
They're both better options than getting the useless positions of 9th-12th. But they're not going to just make the 8 and they wont just tank, so I see us getting 9th-12th anyway.
I agree with some people though, who say do what happened to Collingwood last year. They were just depleted with injuries to their big name players, got some good draft picks and have semi-rebuilt.
I like the idea of getting Hawkins and out of Sellar/Gumbleton/Thorp, etc. for CHF and FF for a few years time, but that's hoping we make the bottom 4 and that wont happen. Also, if we get one of these star FF and turn out to be stars in '07 or '08 or whenever, what'll happen with N. Ablett? He's supposed to be our future FF, isn't he?
I say wait until it is LITERALLY impossible to make finals.
If *somehow* we turn it around and win every game we can make it.
I'd rather see the players put in effort to earn thier paychacks.
If *somehow* we turn it around and win every game we can make it.
I'd rather see the players put in effort to earn thier paychacks.
I think if we do scrape into the eight, we'd be in a better position than some other teams from 5-8. Probably a better position than we were last year too. Just because we'd obviously have to be in a fair bit of form to make the eight. I'd much rather scrape into the eight the way will have to be done this year, over scraping in like last year where we were playing better in the first half of the year. If Collingwood for example were to drop down to finish 5-8, and Geelong also make top 8, out of those 2, I'd be picking Geelong to go better in finals than Collingwood.
catempire
Premium Platinum
cantstandzya23, I included Ottens because it's quite clear to me that he's still carrying something. I wonder whether he just needs a good 6-8 months off to get his body reallly right so he can once again take on AFL football.
catempire said:
I'm not sure whether he is carrying something (he very well could be, I'm just not sure) but he definetly isn't fit.
I know we say it every year, but he needs a full pre-season.
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