AFL 2015 - A 309 Warning

[MrTripleC]

225 Day Warning - Seven Untold Stories from Sydney in 2015


1. Grand Final Feedback

So hard to know what Sydney is taking from 2014 Grand final defeat. Coach John Longmire came out and stated that the club had learned from that loss and were going to rectify in 2015. Star recruit Lance Franklin said that there is no point looking back at past defeats. Bit of a contradiction there from star player and coach. Realistically that came has to be seen in respect as more about what Hawthorn did to win it rather than Sydney lose it. That probably is going to be the lesson for Sydney heading into 2015 and the big games. How to control the game and dominate both sides of the ball so that there can be only one winner. Looking back, there was only ever going to be one winner in the 2014 big one.


2. The Next Slingshot

Sydney unearthed a new tactic during the run to their 2012 premiership success that became referred to as slingshot football. This tactic worked for these Swans because of the outside pace and run they had forward of centre. Funnily the loss of a defender may force Sydney to come up with the next new tactic. Nic Malceski’s departure has meant that Lewis Jetta is being earmarked for a defensive spot and realistically Sydney will use this loss as a reason to inject pace down back. What this does mean though is that this strength on the rebound may now have to be changed. With twin towers in attack of Kurt Tippett and Lance Franklin, the Swans could be set to use a long kicking and contested marking style back into fashion at the small SCG.


3. Midfield Goals

Praise has come quick for the rebuilt Sydney midfield which has gone from a reputation as dour, grind it out winners, to star powered winners. What makes Sydney's midfield most dangerous though, and what is underappreciated the most is the way in which they hit the scoreboard. A lot has been made of the power threats in Kurt Tippett, Lance Franklin, Sam Reid and Adam Goodes in the forward fifty, but it is the impact that the midfield has that is more dangerous to opposition sides. Depending on the game, Dan Hannebery, Luke Parker, Josh Kennedy, Kieran Jack, Ben McGlynn or Jarryd McVeigh can kick multiple goals. That threat and danger is just as damaging as the power forwards, yet most aren't speaking of this offensive power that Sydney possess.


4. Ruck Concern

By virtue of spending big bucks on high profiled stars, problems were going to be seen somewhere on the Sydney list. It appears that the biggest problem came in the ruck where the loss of Shane Mumford has been proven as significant. Mike Pyke has developed into a serviceable AFL ruckman, but in crunch games his inability to have an impact around the ground has the potential to hurt Sydney. This is a club that relies on the ruckman for his tap work and Pyke has developed strongly as a tap ruckman. However the game is evolving and with Pyke and Tom Derickx as the two prime ruck options, this area is still the concern going into the 2015 season.


5. Depth Question

Sydney made the call when their trade sanctions were handed down that this was a decision that could affect them down the track and would affect the club's depth. Those troubles come sooner than Sydney would like. Sydney continue to keep the strong core of its list intact and have had a charmed run with injuries recently. But looking at the bottom of last year's game played list, a number of handy role and depth players are now gone. As individuals the loss of Ryan O'Keefe, Shane Biggs, Tim Membrey and Lewis Roberts-Thompson does not hurt, but put it as a group and that is 13 games Sydney has to make up. Add in 25 from Nick Malceski and Sydney are looking at making up 38 games from last year even before the possible injury bug coming to bite.


6. Seven Day Breaks

Sydney may have got that fixture that Fremantle desired. There was some assistance for Fremantle with seven day breaks, but not like the one in which Sydney received. In the first eight rounds of the season Sydney play all Saturday games ensuring that they are able to get in a comfortable routine early. Accentuating this massive advantage is that in that time they will play Port Adelaide, Fremantle, Western Bulldogs and Melbourne each of whom will only be coming off a six day break heading into their matches with the Swans. Given what is now known about days break to on field performance, the AFL has gifted Sydney one of the best possible starts to the season and what will likely be a springboard for the second half of the year.


7. Two Time Premiership Coach

Almost unspoken of in the lead up to last year's Grand final was that Sydney coach John Longmire was looking to join a group of one that had coached Sydney to dual premierships. So far in the history of South Melbourne/Sydney they have had just five premiership coaches all taking out one flag each. Over the course of this season the potential is there for Longmire to go to third all time in games coached for the Swans, second most in all time wins and most in finals wins. Still the only accolade that matters to Longmire is being the inaugural member of that dual premiership coach group.

 

[Syd]

225 Day Warning - Seven Untold Stories from Sydney in 2015

4. Ruck Concern

By virtue of spending big bucks on high profiled stars, problems were going to be seen somewhere on the Sydney list. It appears that the biggest problem came in the ruck where the loss of Shane Mumford has been proven as significant. Mike Pyke has developed into a serviceable AFL ruckman, but in crunch games his inability to have an impact around the ground has the potential to hurt Sydney. This is a club that relies on the ruckman for his tap work and Pyke has developed strongly as a tap ruckman. However the game is evolving and with Pyke and Tom Derickx as the two prime ruck options, this area is still the concern going into the 2015 season.

Clearly you missed the 2012 Grand Final, especially the part where Mumford was subbed out and Pyke finished off the game and in splendid style making BT eat his "worst.player.ever" statement unequivocally.

Pyke has developed as a strong marking option and a reliable kick for goal. He also frequently shows up taking grabs in the D50 and when he tackles an opponent, they stay tackled.

Of more concern, as was evidenced in 2014 is the loss of Pyke to injuries has far more effect due to the gap between his skill and Derickx as No.2 ruckman.
While Nankervis is probably still another year away from making an impact, Tippett's full preseason should see a Pyke\Tippett\Reid combination being more than adequate barring injuries.

 

[Lensen]

lol 7 day breaks vs 6 day breaks are still supposedly a thing huh

 

[MrTripleC]

224 Day Warning - Seven Untold Stories from Essendon in 2015


1. Drug Free Season

With all of the hype around Essendon's 2015 season revolving around looming suspensions from the supplements saga, it has not been reported that with these sanctions imminent, a two year debacle is almost over. For Essendon's playing list once the sanctions are known there should be a sense of knowing that they have not had in the past two years. Sanctions may be bad, they may be good in the grand scheme, but either way it means that the focus for the entire Essendon playing group can go back to football. This is a club that has thrived at various times during the lengthy saga and have capitulated at other times. It could be that Essendon do return to a sense of consistency and norm with speculation gone.


2. Opportunity Knocks

Essendon have received concessions to top their list up for the pre-season with a contingency plan in place for the premiership season. Those two recent developments suggest that sanctions are looming. What this will mean is that opportunity will come for pretty much every young Essendon footballer. The general belief is that young players need time to develop before they can have an impact at AFL level, but in the case of Essendon draftees may find themselves thrust into games and young players may be thrust into key roles. The simple thought would be that this will leave Essendon severley undermanned and overwhelmed, yet those that know the rapidly changing mindset of Gen Y and Gen Z know that it is instant gratification and there is a real belief in receiving opportunities over earning them. It could be that Essendon actually surprises with this young remaining core driving the club beyond wildest expectations.


3. Returning Decisions

So if players are able to grab and make the most of opportunities for Essendon, the club could find itself in a very difficult position of trying to fit in previous best 22 players at the expense of players who may have performed above expectation. It is probably the ideal scenario to have for Essendon if sanctions do effect the season, but still means even after the event and after the sanctions there will still be more drama that comes from what has been the never ending saga.


4. On Field Reaction

What reaction Essendon gets from rival clubs is another intriguing subplot of the season. Over the past two seasons Essendon has had to deal with hostile crowds with the team feeling the brunt of discontent with the handling of the ASADA case. It will be interesting to see if public sentiment changes during and after sanctions are felt.


5. Old Heads

One of the lesser discussed parts of the Essendon list is that it's recruiting drive over the past two seasons has been on veterans who supposedly are to give Essendon an edge on a premiership push. Depending on sanctions that premiership push is unlikely and means players like Paul Chapman, Adam Cooney, James Gwilt and Jon Giles are in very different situations like which they signed up to. This is most noticeable with Cooney and Chapman who ideally would have had their games and minutes capped over the season. Now with the list potentially going to be cut to the bone, the needs of these two may be far greater. That could have long term pain and could prematurely end the career of these two high profile recruits.


6. The Fixture

The start of the season is tough for Essendon as has been widely reported but really greater insight should be going into the second half of Essendon's fixture when they may have their best list available. In the final six weeks of the season Essendon play just one finalist, that being Richmond who finished eighth. It is a very tasty end to the season and means that Essendon should have the ability to have a late charge whether that is to play finals or avoid a wooden spoon. Much is being read into when sanctions may take effect until, but the end of season means regardless of personnel Essendon will be a far better side in the back half of the season.


7. Hird it before

In his first two years as a senior coach James Hird proved to be a coach that could really coach on emotion and could get a real emotional connection and emotional performance from his charges. For much of the 2013 season he relied on an us versus them mentality to drive his team. He tried to protect the players from the external talk and internal the drive really seemed to be about doing it for the club and doing it for each other. If anything that is what has driven Hird as a coach. If Hird is to survive sanctions to players he will need to change as a coach. How player reaction changes inside the Essendon sanctum may mean that Hird is confronted with a different playing mind set. Either way the ability to be able to inspire with a war like mentality is going to be gone for Hird and he will need to win games with his tactical mind and through true development in what could be a very young playing core.

 

[MrTripleC]

223 Day Warning - Mike to Cam Show Essendon Club Special

Mike to Cam discuss all things Essendon in another club special. Hope you enjoy the listen.

 

[MrTripleC]

222 Day Warning - Mike to Cam Show Sydney Club Special

Mike to Cam discuss all things Sydney in another club special. Hope you enjoy the listen.

 

[MrTripleC]

221 Day Warning - Mike to Cam Show Nathan Blakely Interview Special

For the first time in Mike to Cam history, they are joined by a very special guest in Swan Districts ruckman Nathan Blakley who has become a key WAFL player. Most AFL fans would know that Nathan is the older brother of Connor Blakely who was drafted by Fremantle last year. Nathan gives some great insights on club life and just what it is like to be a semi proffessional footballer.

Hope you enjoy this very special episode and indeed the listen.

 

[MrTripleC]

220 Day Warning - Part I of the Ladder Pool


Since somehow nailing a ladder prediction in 2010 by getting the seven of the top eight teams correct, my last four seasons of ladder predictions have been deplorable. At one point I had Melbourne as a top six team. I had North Melbourne as a top four team long before they had even played finals under Brad Scott. For the past three seasons I have written the Cats off. Even last year I was ridiculously high on Fremantle while being way low on Port Adelaide. Topping off the horrid of all horrid season predictions, I may have even had Carlton as a top four contender in 2014 as the prime example of how out of touch I have been with a ladder prediction.


So with the AFL modifying their strategy on fixtures in the past two seasons to a pool system, my ladder prediction is going to modify along with it and over the next week on the eve of the pre-season commencing you will get my ladder pools for 2015. Today we start at the foot of the table with teams in the pool 13-18.


This pre-season there has only been three teams whose language is of a club who is in the midst of a rebuild and who are essentially warning their fans not to expect wins in 2014. St Kilda were last year's wooden spoon side and despite coach Alan Richardson forecasting a more attacking and more daring St Kilda team, this is still a team that lacks the class and the experience of most other AFL teams. The names on the St Kilda list speaks of the current position of the club. This is a group of young prospective stars being held together by a couple of timeless veterans who are true stalwarts of the club.


There is enough promise in this young list and enough wisdom on those old heads that St Kilda will cause a couple of upsets this year just as they did last year. But still those upsets will be punctuated by longer passages where the team battles to find the consistency that the best teams and even those finals contending have.


As for the other two teams that are using language usually associated with a list rebuild, Western Bulldogs and Melbourne are in a bit of an unknown position of where exactly they are in terms of a rebuild.


The Western Bulldogs had appeared to make strides over the past few seasons, but a wholesale shakeup of both the playing list and coaching group over the 2014-15 off-season has meant that the Bulldogs find themselves at a real unknown position heading into 2015. Like a number of the clubs who have missed finals over the past few seasons, there is budding superstars on the list, but a real lack of veteran experience and consistency from the young bright spots means a bottom end ladder position should be expected.


As for Melbourne some recent additions to the list may mean that the club has advanced further than many experts are forecasting. Given that this was a club that produced one of the worst attacking seasons in nearly a century the reasons to be pessimistic are front of mind or forward of the ball. But through some shrewd investment in giving that forward line some potency, like St Kilda and Western this is a team that will likely cause an upset or two. If the club embraces a more positive game plan and gets some good luck on the injury front this could be a team that finishes a lot closer to 13 than to 18. Hard though with those above to see Melbourne being anywhere but in the bottom pool.


With three taken care of, the final three groups of the bottom pool are tougher to predict. Indeed in all examples it is about looking at the red flags and trying to piece together what red flags will come to fruition over the long AFL season.


In terms of red flags none are bigger than impending ASADA sanctions to a large number of Essendon players. If these sanctions are to stretch for a full season than Essendon are likely the AFL's front runner for the wooden spoon. Even if the sanctions only effect a chunk of the season, it could be enough to derail the 2015 campaign.


There is so much uncertainty behind Essendon and the only thing that can really be guaranteed is that speculation will remain through the Essendon season. The club has held strong over two tough years and at some point there needs to be a breaking point. 2015 could be that breaking point and could give one of the bottom pool teams.


Victorian clubs now occupy four of the six bottom pool spots, it seems only fair that in a national competition that interstate clubs join this Victorian core four. Looking at red flags two interstate clubs stand out from the remainder, Adelaide and Brisbane. Add them to complete the bottom pool of AFL clubs in 2015.


Both are likely going to be considered controversial selections particularly with the clubs own fans, but this is not necessarily about this club, but more about the evenness of the competition in general. Truly there is 14 contenders for this year's finals but only eight will make it. Two will be end up as bottom six teams even though that doesn't do justice to the clubs talent.


When talking about Adelaide of the past five years the quick thought is to speak of 2012 where they were a kick away from a Grand final. Experts consider this the real Adelaide Crows team. But look at the past five years of Adelaide finishes, 10th, 11th, 3rd, 14th and 11th, and there is an outlier. That outlier is 2012. Instead of using 2012 as the base, any one of the other four years should be seen as the base and that be the real Adelaide Crows.


Every team has a talented group, but for some reason fascination is high on the youth at Adelaide being stronger than the likes of Gold Coast and GWS. They have lost players though and the ongoing story for Adelaide is going to be off-field as contract debate swirls. A new hard lined approach by a new coach could pay dividends in the long run, but there could be short term pain.


As for Brisbane the hype is on a series of high profiled recruits that have helped build a dominant midfield group. Yet concerns and red flags can really be seen around the remainder of the field. It is very easy to look at the midfield and be excited considering the recent view has been how important having a deep midfield is, but a number of the true great teams from recent years are complimented with outstanding backlines and strong key forward prospects. Brisbane are still someway from establishing this complimentary pieces.


Adelaide, Brisbane, Essendon, Melbourne, St Kilda and Western Bulldogs. That is my bottom six pool, tune in later this week as the middle six and top six pools are revealed.

 

[MrTripleC]

219 Day Warning - Fantasy Special

Today's Mike to Cam show has Cam revealing his very early attempt at a fantasy team. This includes a bold strategy for your emergency list as well as a group of must have players. Mike then talks through the players whose form he will be tracking throughout pre-season. Hope you enjoy this special Mike To Cam show pod.

 

[Ashton Agar]

You seem fairly certain we are going to get bans...

 

[B4Bear]

You seem fairly certain we are going to get bans...

At the very least Essendon are going to be under done for round 1, regardless of bans. The three pre-season games are invaluable for getting match miles into legs, as well as trying out new tactics.

 

[MrTripleC]

218 Day Warning - Part II Of the Ladder Pool


Following on from this week's part I which looked at my prediction of the lower pool of six clubs in the AFL in 2015 is today's look at the middle pool.


This pool has the greatest likelihood for uncertainty in 2015 given the real contention for spots in this year's finals series. As the bottom pool showed, teams that are currently thinking finals are going to end up occupying a bottom six position. Consider these next six teams all capable of playing finals but only two spots are up for grabs.


Tradition generally dictates that a preliminary final team from the previous season does suffer a stumble in the subsequent season. Given last year was the first time in seven years that the AFL had a semi final upset, it could be those semi final winners are most at risk. Digging deeper North Melbourne probably have the biggest concerns by virtue of a more difficult draw and a tough pre-season which has seen a number of key personnel injured.


Not enough is made of teams suffering from underdone pre-seasons. Every year great teams are relegated to good because of early injuries and good teams are relegated to average because of the same reason. Whether you believe North Melbourne has a great or good list probably dictates on whether you think they can overcome the odds for another finals berth. The slide could be steep meaning finals are missed, or could be minimal making them a dangerous side in a 2015 finals series.


Both expansion clubs have flagged finals expectations for the first time with the Gold Coast via their chairman being the most outspoken to play finals. Indeed natural progression has seen the club improve and progress with each passing year and this continued path would likely lead to a finals berth. However as with most clubs in the finals contending range there are red flags that could see the team drop to the bottom half of the ladder.


This is still very much a team that is dominated by one player and if they were not to get a full season from that one man, the challenge of finals is vastly greater. On top with a new coach coming in there has been a need for the first time for this young group to change their game plan and what had become their well known style. How the team adjusts will be telling for the finals reach of the Suns.


The second expansion club GWS is not as flamboyant about its 2015 finals chances, but given the additions to this list over the past two seasons, this has a finals feel about it if they can get improvement and career best seasons from the youth.


While the simple analysis is to compare how they stack up against their new franchise rival, the reality is that this is a team that has been constructed very differently. Instead of relying on a few core pieces, GWS have built a team of role players and now have a strong best 22 made up of pieces that seemingly can fit together to create a winning team. The real questions on GWS are how quickly the youth develops and handles the long season and whether they have the depth to make a finals run. The answers will dictate whether they can for the first time leapfrog their northern rival.


While these two forced rivals are likely to be mid-table possibly battles between two traditional rivals could decide finals contenders from also rans. Both Carlton and Collingwood endured disastrous 2014 campaigns and have few neutral fans talking about finals in 2015. But both have the capabilities to play finals if things go right. Should things go wrong, the lower half of the ladder again awaits.


It was controversial, but the reality was that Carlton were a semi final team some 18 months ago. The team has changed over that 18 months, but again, the reality is that the team has improved for the better for the way that Mick Malthouse wants to coach and play. One of the key developments for Carlton over the past tough 18 month stretch is that the club has unearthed some important role players. The team still relies on star output, but at least they know that other names can make an impact in any given game.


As much as both clubs would hate to admit it, but Collingwood are in a very similar position to Carlton in that they have endured a tough 18 months, but that time has allowed the club to build a team that the coach wants. Results are going to be slowly expected from this point on.


With really four top ten draft picks added to this year's squad, Collingwood are in a nice position to add to the depth of the club. Combining this with some additions over the off-season and this is a very different team to 2014 and for that reason comparisons between the two seem mute. A fast start is pivotal, but the dim light of finals is lit heading into 2015.


As for the final club in the middle six, keeping with the theme of writing off Geelong, write Geelong off. This of course is a choice fraught with peril. This is a team and club that has defied the critics and expectations for the past five years. The experts keep saying one day, Geelong keep proving it wrong. Maybe until now.


The talk is on an aging list but it could be that 2015 is the bigger picture year for Geelong. They will play a role in next year's free agency and the team could look very different in 2016. For that reason a lull season in 2015 wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing if it meant grabbing a couple of top picks as well as top recruits.


Indeed Geelong could be looking at this year as another year in the development of the next wave of Cats. Unlike past seasons though where the veterans have still led from the front, Geelong may take the step of handing the key moments to the youth. That could lead to short term losses but open up a lot of long term gains. This Geelong team has surprised before, they could do it again, but on the eve of the season write them off.


At your peril.


Stay tuned later this week for the reasoning behind the top pool of ladder predictions.

 

[MrTripleC]

217 Day Warning - Mike to Cam Show Wednesday February 25

Please find the most recent Mike to Cam PS & QS episode for this week. Cam is at the control and has Mike play a name game with Hawthorn, talks about the hype around some early round draft picks and lets Mike open up on his beloved Adelaide Crows. Hope you enjoy the one episode that guarantees all AFL clubs will be discussed in detail.

 

[MrTripleC]

216 Day Warning - Part III of the Ladder Pool


For those who have followed my ladder pool prediction over this week, the next six teams to be announced as the top pool are not going to be a surprise. In revealing the middle six, the top six were also revealed. This is more about giving the reasoning behind I am selecting the top six that I am for the 2015 season.


Let's get the controversial selection out of the way first, West Coast. Realistically heading into 2015 you could put a blanket over most of the ladder. There are a few standout challengers for the flag and a few standout challengers for the wooden spoon. The rest though depending on scenario can really finish anywhere between fourth and fourteenth. A lot has been made of the AFL's desire to equalise the competition, 2015 is set to be the year where that plan shows its full dividend.


West Coast has been gifted with one of the friendliest draws of finals contending teams and in this even season a few beneficial home and double up games could really be telling when finals positions are being sorted. West Coast are helped in both these areas. West Coast have been fortunate to get a number of key personnel through full pre-seasons and appear to be in a far stronger position with a second year coach as opposed to a rookie coach.


Even looking at last year's form it was really only a lack of finishing that prevented the club from playing finals. They may not have added a great deal in terms of personnel over the off-season, but having had a year of experience of a new game plan and a list with improved depth should mean that finals are the target for the club.


The other perhaps controversial selection in the top six is Richmond. Looking at Richmond it probably comes to a simple question. Do you believe their first half form in 2014 or their second half form? Given the personnel heading into the season mirrors that late season run it should not be unreasonable to consider that Richmond can win any match on any given day.


This is a squad that continues to get better at each element of list building. Their veterans continue to develop and discover how to have an impact in a lesser role, the team's best young players are continuing to improve and the depth on the list continues to make an impact. If the trend from late last season holds firm than Richmond will be a top four contender late into the season.


The remaining four sides are regarded as the four best premiership chances with the bookies and with the majority of fans and experts. Fremantle probably go into this season with the most question marks given a meek ending to the 2014 season and about an aging list. But in reality Fremantle have been slowly building a squad over the past three seasons that is set for sustained success.


While most speak of the veterans as the key players for Fremantle, in reality there has been a changing of the guard at Fremantle and the key players are its next generation of stars. On top the ability to blood games into youngsters as part of a successful side is likely to have a strong flow on effect of improvement and development. They will always be among the most innovative and best coached teams in the league and this will continue to carry them to premiership contention.


As for the top three, they speak for themselves. Port Adelaide has been one of the success stories of the AFL over the past two seasons both on and off field. With a young core they seem to truly enjoy playing together this is a young group that is desperate to have an impact on the AFL. They have immense confidence and indeed have the talent to deliver a second premiership in 2015.


Sydney still has one of the most talented top 25s in the league even if the depth of the squad has been hurt by defections and injuries since the Grand final debacle of 2014. With as potent a midfield and forward line as there is in the competition and a miserly defence supporting those up the field they are every chance of a third Grand final appearance in four years.


Meanwhile for Hawthorn this is a club that has a definite shot at doing what seems unachievable in the modern game of a hat-trick of flags. The ability of Hawthorn to build a strong club and strong team at every level is to be admired. This pursuit of greatness deserves to be the number one story this season.


Final Ladder Pool Predictions

Pool I - Adelaide, Brisbane, Essendon, Melbourne, St Kilda, Western Bulldogs

Pool II - Carlton, Collingwood, Geelong, Gold Coast, GWS, North Melbourne

Pool III - Fremantle, Hawthorn, Port Adelaide, Richmond, Sydney, West Coast

 

[MrTripleC]

215 Day Warning - The Mike to Cam Show Friday February 27

In their first preview show of the season Mike and Cam give the one thing that they are going to be watching in this weekend's pre-season games. Mike's bold prediction returns with his eye being cast over the ruck-rover combinations and one that he is high on. Mailbag gets a Mike makeover with a new tune and new featured questioner and Cam takes care of the Friday final regrets. Hope you enjoy the show.

 

[MrTripleC]

214 Day Warning - Seven Untold Stories of PreSeason Week 1


1. ACL Impact

Two reigning best and fairest winners went down in the space of 24 hours at the weekend with West Coast losing Eric Mackenzie and Western Bulldogs losing Tom Liberatore to the most wretched injury a footballer can suffer. Already a lot has been made of what these losses mean for both clubs in 2015; West Coast’s finals chances hindered, Western Bulldogs midfield development hindered; but bear in mind this is often a two year injury. To expect Mackenzie and Liberatore to be back at best and fairest form in 2016 would be to defy what history dictates. These are two individuals that appeared to be going into career best and team defining roles. Now the state of two clubs is in flux. West Coast’s plans of using Jeremy McGovern as a swing man are likely dashed and Western Bulldogs are potentially going to see blue chip piece in the making Marcus Bontempelli thrust into further opposition spotlights. Make no mistake these injuries are not just about 2015 impact, this is real long term impact to both clubs.


2. Overreaction Theatre – The Good

This time of year is notorious for players racing out of the blocks. With Fantasy AFL starting to play a bigger role in the game as a whole it has ushered in a new wave of interest for individual players at this point of the season. Some performers from the weekend have a habit for this tactic, i.e. Jesse White and Shaun Higgins while others made the most of opportunity I.e. Majak Daw, Zac Smith and Jed Anderson. As long time fantasy players will know, the key is looking beyond the numbers and instead looking at what was meaningful and sustained impact. Tough to establish in games that mean so very little in the mix of a long season.


3. Overreaction Theatre – The Bad

While players over performing typically get all the praise at this time of year, a club that suffers what is perceived as a shock loss can quickly change public perception. In the space of one weekend the two perennial contenders of the past decade in Hawthorn and Geelong had their premiership chances written off. This overreaction is fraught with danger. As the NAB Challenge continues to mean less as a competition, the performances at team level should be counted for little. Still, for the general public, one poor performance, regardless of that state of the game is enough to make the bold calls. Overreaction much.


4. Change of Stripes

It seemed a series of players relished getting a competitive hitout in new club colours. Mitch Hallahan, Travis Varcoe, Shaun Higgins, Mitch Clark, Levi Greenwood, Dayne Beams and Tim Membrey among a group of players that had an impact in new environments. With free agency continuing to play such an important role in list management of AFL clubs, seeing players come in and have an immediate impact is likely to only continue to encourage this practice.


5. New Tricks

Results and performances should matter little at this time of year with instead more focus placed on role and development. A couple of young players showed those signs of development at the weekend. Reigning rising star winner Lewis Taylor showed his scoreboard impact with two goals, budding rookie listed ruckman Corey Gault showed contested marking had improved in his game, Brad Crouch showed his inside improvement with an impressive nine clearances and Nick Vlaustin showed his defensive improvement highlighted by six one percent acts and three tackles. At this time of year little things like this from young players are more important to clubs then seeing the star players racking up their regular array of numbers.


6. Contested Possession

Every year the AFL game seems to evolve and with that evolution certain statistics become more relevant while other areas become less important. It is this evolution and ongoing change that made FoxFooty’s short lived recipe for success such a failure. AFL clubs never live in the past. This weekend, albeit off a small sample size, contested possession appears to becoming the pivotal statistic in a contest. All six of the weekend’s pre-season winners won the contested possession statistic. Interestingly still is the width of margin in the contested possession battle was replicated on the scoreboard with Collingwood and West Coast two teams who won big in both areas. Conversly Brisbane and Adelaide had narrow wins in both areas. Keep an eye on the contested possession count to see if this trend continues through pre-season.


7. Death of the Supergoal

Over the first weekend of the NAB Challenge just eight supergoals were scored. The change in format of the pre-season and with advanced metrics taking a hold within AFL clubs, the value of a supergoal has never been lower. Clubs are more focused on getting the processes right in pre-season and the value in long range shot attempts has indeed been devalued. This gimmick could well have run its race and it is hard to fathom the AFL continuing with this scoring model beyond this year.