AFL - first week of finals

[Big Fozza]

I have crunched the numbers for the Blues V Dons.

They point to at least a 20 pt win for the Blues. Ive taken the Blues H-H, but the line is attractive. It wouldnt surprise me if they roll the Dons if they get away to a fast start too.

A lot has been made of the Blues losing their last two. Well they lost a meaningless R24 game to the Saints and lost to a top 4 side the week before the bye by less than 4 goals

The dons well, they were smashed by a top 4 side by almost 10 goals and should have lost to the wooden spoon runners up by 5 goals, the Power choked when they should have won.

The Blues does have some injury concerns no doubt about that, but IMO can cover those loses.

The Blues top 5 is blue-chip courtesy of tanking and salary cap cheating which is their midfield.
Importantly this is their engine room which given the weather in Melbourne will be crucial. Their small forwards will be relishing wet dirty Melbourne day.

The Dons have Jobe Watson that is a blue chip. Huge question mark over Hurley too.

At the G, Carlton 8 games for 5 wins - 2 losses against Top 4 - 1 in meaningless R 24 game against a desperate Saints needing to win to play a home final.

The dons, 7 games at the G, 1 win against the Tigers. 6 losses - 2 against bottom 8 teams and importantly 1 against Carlton only about 6 weeks ago where they were smashed.

The Blues have played the last two finals with narrow losses in each, the Dons last played in 09 and were humiliated by the Crows. The other significant issue is that probably Ratten's coaching contract is linked to this one win today, he will be over meticulous in his preparation.

Another issue is the bye, the Dons last time came off a bye and lost. Interesting that the "Hawks bye" last week didnt help them much IMO. If anything they looked a little rusty.

The only thing IMO that will throw a spanner in the works is the choke tag for the Blues.

Thanks for that Ferris. Makes me feel a bit better about my bet this arvo

 

[Ferris_rules]

Thanks for that Ferris. Makes me feel a bit better about my bet this arvo

lol I wish it was that easy!

Im nervous. With that said I was more confident on the Cats winning then I am for the Blues.

If the Blues can settle quickly they should be ok.

What interests me the most though is their midfield is >>>> the Dons and there is a lot in their that is A - class.

Lets face it, the Blues were a top 4 team for a part of this year too.

If this was at the Dome, I wouldnt have stayed away from this game.

 

[Lensen]

0.5 units Reimers most goals today at $14 (Centrebet, $9.11)

 

[Trojan Pies]

Centrebet have some good possessions bets. Yarran may get tagged like last time so the 17 disposal line is dubious, he only got 8 last time and surely Hocking will get 19 disposals...? Yes he will play on Judd but he'll be in the middle the whole game and should be able to get this mark with some quick kicks and handballs.

 

[camolah]

ryder FG @ 16
o'hailpin FG @ 16

 

[a1118374]

Centrebet have some good possessions bets. Yarran may get tagged like last time so the 17 disposal line is dubious, he only got 8 last time and surely Hocking will get 19 disposals...? Yes he will play on Judd but he'll be in the middle the whole game and should be able to get this mark with some quick kicks and handballs.

I was thinking the same on both bets, but Yarran can pile them up quickly with 1-2s and looking at Hocking's past games it doesn't look like the lock i thought it was. Probably will avoid both

 

[Barnzy]

2.5 units Carlton -14.5 @ 1.72
0.75 units most disposals group B Kade Simpson @ 3.25

 

[Big Fozza]

So far so good for me

 

[Moses01]

FGS 4th quarter:
Thornton @ $26
Gibbs @ $26
Robinson @ $41
Hurley @ $12

 

[Moses01]

dammit thornton, touched on the line, then drops a mark in font

 

[Ferris_rules]

I have crunched the numbers for the Blues V Dons.

They point to at least a 20 pt win for the Blues. Ive taken the Blues H-H, but the line is attractive. It wouldnt surprise me if they roll the Dons if they get away to a fast start too.

A lot has been made of the Blues losing their last two. Well they lost a meaningless R24 game to the Saints and lost to a top 4 side the week before the bye by less than 4 goals

The dons well, they were smashed by a top 4 side by almost 10 goals and should have lost to the wooden spoon runners up by 5 goals, the Power choked when they should have won.

The Blues does have some injury concerns no doubt about that, but IMO can cover those loses.

The Blues top 5 is blue-chip courtesy of tanking and salary cap cheating which is their midfield.
Importantly this is their engine room which given the weather in Melbourne will be crucial. Their small forwards will be relishing wet dirty Melbourne day.

The Dons have Jobe Watson that is a blue chip. Huge question mark over Hurley too.

At the G, Carlton 8 games for 5 wins - 2 losses against Top 4 - 1 in meaningless R 24 game against a desperate Saints needing to win to play a home final.

The dons, 7 games at the G, 1 win against the Tigers. 6 losses - 2 against bottom 8 teams and importantly 1 against Carlton only about 6 weeks ago where they were smashed.

The Blues have played the last two finals with narrow losses in each, the Dons last played in 09 and were humiliated by the Crows. The other significant issue is that probably Ratten's coaching contract is linked to this one win today, he will be over meticulous in his preparation.

Another issue is the bye, the Dons last time came off a bye and lost. Interesting that the "Hawks bye" last week didnt help them much IMO. If anything they looked a little rusty.

The only thing IMO that will throw a spanner in the works is the choke tag for the Blues.

Well this game went according to script.

I couldnt believe my eyes when I saw the half time line ie Carlton -11.5 to win the second half.

I threw 5% of my bank at this, I guess the rest they say is history.

Anyways enough about this weekend, lets all just start looking at Week 2.

 

[Ferris_rules]

So far so good for me

Thanks for putting your selections on here, you inspired me to analyses this match in more detail!

It really was never in doubt, even when the Blues missed early in the 1st, you always felt they would hit their straps as the game wore on!

 

[baywatch5]

1-1 split in yesterday's finals with the Pies failing to cover .... Small -0.2u loss.

Today's Elimination Final

ATS - BLUES -16.5 (x3)

Nice finish to the weekend with a big win by the Blues adding x3 units

3-1 for week 1 of the finals and +5.84 units added

 

[TurboBreuster]

Nice work baywatch and thanks heaps for the Blues ats tip today. I realy admire the way that you go about your punting. Keep it up!

 

[IDIG]

Let my bias blind me today and dropped more units than i'd like to admit. I know we got flogged yadda yadda yadda but fair go ump. My god.

 

[baywatch5]

Nice work baywatch and thanks heaps for the Blues ats tip today. I realy admire the way that you go about your punting. Keep it up!

Cheers mate hope you have had a successful year also looking forward to finishing off the season well then onto the NFL / NBA