Brownlow Guru speaks - 2012

[BrownlowGuru]

Hi all. I've got a system which I use to calculate Brownlow Medal probabilities. In a nutshell, it involves analysing all 198 games, determining the probability of individuals getting votes in that game, and then running a number of simulations for the whole season to get an idea of who's likely to win, place, top the club etc.

I've been doing this for a few years now, and had reasonable success punting with this (including posting here last 6 years). Here are my predictions for win and place, I'll supply some of the exotics (team, quinella, H2H) later.

Below are what I have calculated to be the real odds - if you can find odds greater than those displayed (eg Watson, Thompson) then they are worth a punt if you are so inclined.

WIN
Watson J (Ess) 2.956
Cotchin T (Rich) 3.909
Thompson S (Adel) 4.986
Ablett G (GC) 18.746
Beams D (Coll) 23.292
Mitchell S (Haw) 31.299
Swan D (Coll) 39.396
Dangerfield P (Adel) 42.280
Boyd M (WB) 93.304
Pendlebury S (Coll) 138.468
Selwood J (Geel) 161.151
All others > 500

PLACE (top 3)
Watson J (Ess) 1.420
Cotchin T (Rich) 1.681
Thompson S (Adel) 1.843
Ablett G (GC) 4.269
Beams D (Coll) 4.667
Swan D (Coll) 5.960
Mitchell S (Haw) 6.143
Dangerfield P (Adel) 6.855
Boyd M (WB) 13.290
Pendlebury S (Coll) 15.635
Selwood J (Geel) 19.054
Kennedy J (Syd) 42.878
Deledio B (Rich) 81.320
All Others > 200

PLACE (top 5)
Watson J (Ess) 1.157
Cotchin T (Rich) 1.283
Thompson S (Adel) 1.343
Ablett G (GC) 2.273
Beams D (Coll) 2.382
Swan D (Coll) 2.662
Mitchell S (Haw) 2.910
Dangerfield P (Adel) 2.977
Boyd M (WB) 4.977
Pendlebury S (Coll) 5.522
Selwood J (Geel) 6.373
Kennedy J (Syd) 12.051
Deledio B (Rich) 24.856
Hayes L (St K) 71.611
Jack K (Syd) 97.587
All others > 200

 

[The Falcon Strike]

Looks like ablett is massive overs with the bookies BG!!

Your top two also coincide with that major punter.

May try a nibble this year

 

[The Made Guy]

In before someone asks!

2011 thread: http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/brownlow-guru-speaks-2011.874129/

2010 thread: http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/the-brownlow-guru-speaks-2010.756671/

2009 thread: http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/the-brownlow-guru-speaks-2009.632763/

 

[Wayne Arnold]

Should try your hand at 'Power Rankings', give Roby a run for his money.

 

[Watson_my_mind]

Not bad results from previous years, although it looks like your 2nd and 3rd ranked odds players are getting up and winning and your favourite never does

 

[Slattery_20]

I just don't like that 3 of the top 4 supposed shouts are from the sides that finished 11th, 12th & 17th.

 

[scruffydog]

Was waiting for your thread, Guru! I was quite impressed by your results from last year.

 

[vast]

Sam Mitchell should be one of the top favourites.

 

[Monaco12]

Thank you! Been hanging out for this thread

 

[Big Red is back]

Breaking news J Watson Fav

 

[HowBoutThemDoggies]

when can we expect team by team Guru?

 

[Tulip]

Still on Watson myself, need to get some cash on him smartish

 

[00Stinger]

Ablett-Swan quinella

 

[WatWouldCyrilDo]

Ablett-Swan quinella

$26 on sportingbet

 

[00Stinger]

$26 on sportingbet

damn, I got it for $21 @ TAB

 

[Roby]

Should try your hand at 'Power Rankings', give Roby a run for his money.

Don't know what yellow cards do but I'm guessing you're on notice. Don't why you guys need to mention my name or rankings in other threads in order to derail them.

As far as the brownlow goes I am surprised that Mitchell and Kennedy are not high on 'the experts' predictions. Then again that is just my opinion.

 

[mick06]

Whats with all the mitchell love? Is it because buddy wasn't there to take votes? He wasn't as effective this year as previous years, i mean sure he was good, but not amazing. I'll be surprised if he is top 5.

-another mug punter

 

[Wayne Arnold]

Don't know what yellow cards do but I'm guessing you're on notice. Don't why you guys need to mention my name or rankings in other threads in order to derail them.

As far as the brownlow goes I am surprised that Mitchell and Kennedy are not high on 'the experts' predictions. Then again that is just my opinion.

Hey Roby, was just a bit of banter, no need to take offence. The yellow card just indicates that I have a postgrad qualification in Mathematics/Statistics. Anyhow, I actually like the way you go about it Roby and pretty much agree with your rankings except Carlton and Adelaide. But you've been consistent all year and stuck to your guns, so kudos. You and Brownlow Guru both seem quite genuine in your theories and postings, so I'm going to exit this thread quietly. I apologise buddy!

 

[Roby]

Hey Roby, was just a bit of banter, no need to take offence. The yellow card just indicates that I have a postgrad qualification in Mathematics/Statistics. Anyhow, I actually like the way you go about it Roby and pretty much agree with your rankings except Carlton and Adelaide. But you've been consistent all year and stuck to your guns, so kudos. You and Brownlow Guru both seem quite genuine in your theories and postings, so I'm going to exit this thread quietly. I apologise buddy!

My apologises then. It's very difficult to tell the difference on the board between genuine posting and those who are baiting.

 

[BrownlowGuru]

RND 5 Leader
Kennedy J (Syd) 2.618
Pendlebury S (Coll) 6.861
Watson J (Ess) 8.407
Murphy M (Carl) 9.577
Thompson S (Adel) 17.691
Hayes L (St K) 23.261
Boyd M (WB) 36.356
Ablett G (GC) 37.335
Selwood J (Geel) 46.458
Stanton B (Ess) 48.205
Sandilands A (Fre) 55.186
Swan D (Coll) 89.335
Others > 200

Rnd 10 Leader
Watson J (Ess) 2.017
Pendlebury S (Coll) 3.675
Thompson S (Adel) 13.304
Stanton B (Ess) 15.895
Boyd M (WB) 17.875
Others > 100

Rnd13 Leader
Watson J (Ess) 1.360
Thompson S (Adel) 8.278
Pendlebury S (Coll) 29.137
Boyd M (WB) 35.705
Mitchell S (Haw) 48.944
Swan D (Coll) 68.383
Cotchin T (Rich) 99.000
Stanton B (Ess) 117.097
Beams D (Coll) 145.200
Selwood J (Geel) 155.571
Others > 200

 

[Ron The Bear]

I just don't like that 3 of the top 4 supposed shouts are from the sides that finished 11th, 12th & 17th.

Valid observation. The Guru's opinions deserve respect, though.

 

[BrownlowGuru]

Regarding outsiders in top 4 - it concerns me also. However, most bookmakers have the top 3 as Cotchin, Ablett, Watson - all 3 of these are outside the top 8.

I don't subscribe to the theory that you can't win from outside the top 8 - Boyd and Ablett polled well last year (24 and 23) despite missing finals.

 

[Glenno23]

Not bad results from previous years, although it looks like your 2nd and 3rd ranked odds players are getting up and winning and your favourite never does

If i'm reading this right, its not about favourites, its about the odds. If you find odds more than BG has here for a certain player, it represents good value

 

[Ron The Bear]

Not bad results from previous years, although it looks like your 2nd and 3rd ranked odds players are getting up and winning and your favourite never does

Had Bartel on top in 2007. Still in front from that alone.

 

[FAIRANDBALANCED]

I think Watson is a very good chance. Other than Stanton, I'm not sure who else from Essendon will really draw Brownlow votes. I reckon Watson will get about 25-30 votes, which should be enough this year given the top teams won less games than last year. But I do think maybe Kennedy is missing from your win odds?? Surely he is better than a 500-1 shot to win??