Mega Thread Coronavirus & the AFL - season postponed. (Thread part 1 - cont in part 2, link in thread)

[Chief]

This is part 1 of this thread.

Continued in Part 2:

Mega Thread - Coronavirus & the AFL - season postponed. Part 2 * CONTINUED ABUSE WILL NOT BE TOLERATED *

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/pages/covid-stats-australia/

www.bigfooty.com

 

[kingswood71]

But that’s how world bodies are measuring death rates, the rest is a guess.. if and when the deaths are formalised and registered then they will increase the %, but as it stands that’s not happening. You can’t forecast someone to die if the reality is they probably won’t. Just keep watching the numbers, I would be highly shocked if death rates were greater than 1% here.

I kinda agree and trust me, I am watching the numbers as my work depends on it
We can apply some of the data to what we expect may happen though. For example the current deaths in over 80's is alarming given the known cases in the same age group. If we apply this to known populations of that age group, then obviously we will target the protection of that group. Therefore, the aged care home measures put in place.
The death rate is likely closer to 1%, I agree, but will be higher in some populations. Modeling suggests large numbers of Australians will contract the virus in the coming months. Even if we calculated best case scenario of only 20% total population getting COVID-19, which is a lower estimate, then a 1% death rate would be 56,000 people. This would be 44x greater than known influenza deaths based on 2017 data.
I am far from a doomsdayer, in fact I hope for the best...but am mindful that the threat of this is worse than anything I have seen in my career. If in 9 months I am writing here and the number infected ended up at only 10% for 5600 deaths, then I will be jumping with glee! The best we can do now is to try and flatten the curve and to protect our most vulnerable populations.

 

[Thrawn]

Haha, been here almost 20 years, anyone who knows me knows I don’t bother with alts so give it a rinse.

That's only your word.

 

[Kapow!!!]

Theres many people who disagree with you.

Do you have any formal qualifications that supersede those that are advising the government? If so, perhaps you should offer your services.

The fact you, plus many others believe SCOMO makes medical decisions on behalf of Australia is comical.

As stated those were my opinions. Whilst I do not have those requisite qualifications I do have more than you on the matter. I there are many people who disagree (rather vehemently I might add) with you (some of who I work with who do have those qualifications).

Your derisive appeals to authority are noted and equally as laughable

 

[takethepowerback]

'Ok boomer' is not about merely disagreeing with the old folk, it is about denying their agency and life experience.

But when it suits your statist and pro-alarmism agenda to pretend to give a s**t about them, all of a sudden, now you care.

Gee. I think ‘ok boomer’ is more representative of a disconnect between the younger generations and older ones on key political issues - climate change, etc etc

Not representative of letting every over 40 die..

I’m sure they still care for their loved ones


Talk about alarmist! Were you expecting a bloody revolution if not for Covid-19?

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

Italy will never be the same again this is terrible.

 

[tige19]

That's only your word.

You are a goose.

 

[tige19]

As stated those were my opinions. Whilst I do not have those requisite qualifications I do have more than you on the matter. I there are many people who disagree (rather vehemently I might add) with you (some of who I work with who do have those qualifications).

Your derisive appeals to authority are noted and equally as laughable

You have naught qualifications.. Yes, you have an opinion but it means as much as mine, absolutely nothing. You’re no more important than the rest of us so quit grandstanding and play your role as a citizen and support the measures in place.

 

[Monkey King]

Realistically, as we all prepare to sit in for a prolonged stint of isolation, you could rightfully blame China for fostering the conditions to create and the subsequently fail to control the pandemic. You could just as rightfully blame US policy for its accelerated spread.

Like with most things in life, there are usually multiple factors to any situation one finds themselves in. Those serious about not repeating the same mistake will try their best to understand as many of them as possible. Those who aren't tend to isolate just one, maybe two, and look no further.

 

[Mitchell Madness]

Here's the facts. Had the government shut the borders months ago, we have a reasonably healthy economy, and life is pretty much normal.

Instead, between foreign investment and political correctness, they waited, and now 2020 is effectively over before it's begun

 

[Roby]

To those ignoramus who laughed at me and had a go at me a couple of days ago about advising going into full lockdown and pausing the economy. Something I wanted here a month ago.

‘Unimaginable’: Italy’s virus horror

The number of deaths linked to coronavirus in Italy has passed 4000, with 627 new fatalities reported today.

www.news.com.au

In a measure of how the fortunes of East and West have shifted, a Chinese red Cross official heading an aid delegation to Milan castigated Italians for failing to take their national lockdown seriously. Sun Shuopeng said he was shocked to see so many people walking around, using public transportation and eating out in hotels.

“Right now we need to stop all economic activity, and we need to stop the mobility of people,” he said. “All people should be staying at home in quarantine.”

SCOMO wants to lockdown suburbs now. This will create further panic and people will be traveling quickly and vastly to avoid been locked down, congregating at supermarkets and further spreading the virus exponentially.

These half harted attempts by the government and some of our sporting codes are still doing more harm than people realise.

1. Most people on this forum and around Australia are likely to get the virus and spread it to dozens other people because more drastic actions were not taken sooner.

2. Just because you're young it doesn't guarantee you will live or not have severe scarring in your lungs. If you get covid-19 along with a secondary infection or other viruses like Swine or Avian, you're at a very high risk of death regardless of age.

3. Because more drastic actions were not taking sooner the economy is going to suffer even more. Meaning more recession, a lower quality of life and more death.

4. Think of it like this. If you had a sales company with 100 employees and you we're currently on track to hit your KPI or sales targets but one of your star sales guy says they're ill with the flu and if they take 1-2 weeks off it will mean not making budget so you tell them to come in just to square the bottom line. They come in ill and not perform well, they don't rest and recover and then take even more time off. What's worse now is they've infected 10 others who then infect everyone else. Before you know it, you run a skeleton crew for the next few months almost crippling the business.

5. Rather than just helping yourself we should be helping each other. Whenever their is a natural disaster it seems very easy to donate and organising charity events. But these seem more congratulatory and self promoting for the individuals who do it then genuine help. When something serious like a virus comes out we're very quick to start eating each other. And we know why. A fire in NSW is not going to travel to the U.S., an earthquake in India won't be felt in Australia and a Tsunami in Indonesia won't even ripple in Italy but a virus will do all those things.

6. On an anecdotal note, I have relatives in China and Vietnam and have been told the governments tare not reporting Covid-19 cases despite many becoming sick and dying. Particularly in Vietnam where there is no reported deaths and less than 100 cases and yet their in full lockdown and their PM wants to toughen illegal animal trade but apprently an 80 million highly congested country like Vietnam has half the cases of QLD.

Lastly to those who are still living in the 21st century bubble, just understand that nobody is saying it's the end of the world, a huge asteroid it is not but it is the end of something. They've stopped counting the dead in Italy. By next month their will be 2 million cases and as much 7 million world wide and least 60,000 deaths but possibly even 200,000 without even hitting peak. That is unless we look at those numbers and decide to drastically act now.

 

[parsons nose]

Here's the facts. Had the government shut the borders months ago, we have a reasonably healthy economy, and life is pretty much normal.

Instead, between foreign investment and political correctness, they waited, and now 2020 is effectively over before it's begun

There’s a moral obligation to all Australian citizens including those abroad

 

[Howard Littlejohn]

If it is true your very unlikely to catch it twice.
Why don’t they infect people to then have some numbers that can deal with potential infections?

a) There have already been some reported cases of people catching it twice. This may be genuine, or it may be due to false negatives in the testing, the rate of those an unknown. (I don't recall seeing anything on false positives, but they may well exist too.) One speculation is that the virus can stay in the lungs and not appear in mucus, sputum, etc in the tests.
b) The only way that works is if you have volunteers willing to take on a potentially deadly virus - and even in the 80% of "mild" cases a not inconsequential chance of ongoing lung damage.
c) There are already infected in the community, many of whom will not know they (we?) are infected, and don't meet the guidelines for the very limited testing. All having more infected people does is speed up the infection rate. It may decrease the length of the outbreak, it may also move us to an overwhelmed medical system faster.

 

[Howard Littlejohn]

It’s sad how bigfooty threads start out being balanced and informative, then degenerate to just a few people who revel in extreme views triggering each other.

I don’t think they hold extreme views just get off on the triggering of each other, and allocation extreme views Of the other extreme to some group of people who have long vacated the forum cos it’s turned to poo.

we are still in a wait and see phase here. Latest reports is 2/3 of discovered cases here come form returned folk. The community spread is not large yet or just unknown. It may be a good sign. If we are to be a location where size of community spread is an issue, we may still be several days behind other locations, and still in the unknown phase

Its hard to hold back sometimes, and counter extreme views with reason. I find anger can take over. I am also not always a reasonable person.

On community spread, because we have such a narrow target of people for testing we really don't know how much larger than reported it really is. Only the cases that make it to hospital, and their immediate known probable next-in-chain, are inlcuded in testing. Where community infection is known to have started, it is likely to be higher than the known numbers. Whether its a small amount higher, or a large amount, can really only be extrapolated from overseas experience. And that varies so much, you nee to crunch the data at a pretty deep level to get anything vaguely close.

Which is why I tend to believe those who the skills in their projections. They may be inaccurate in the end, and politicians are no doubt shining light on certain numbers and hiding the others, but its the best we've got.

 

[Cdog71]

A lot of data if anyones interested

Coronavirus: the disease Covid-19 explained

Despite China’s best efforts the coronavirus outbreak has spread rapidly around the world. Many cities in Hubei province remain in lockdown and an increasing number of international flights to China have been suspended.

multimedia.scmp.com

 

[jaguaress]

Speak to anybody who has worked in a nursing home and they will tell you, the majority of nursing home residents are lucky to receive one visit per month.

That is true, I know of 2 nurses who work in different nursing homes. They both tell me many of elderly rarely get visitors.

 

[Light_Soda]

Have a listen to this guy

The "serious/critical" (in ICU) data has listed Australia as having had 2 people in that category. Up from 1. Proving this number is not static (and in-line with the worldwide trend).

This data is further exemplified by the coronavirus press conference update on the 20th (which you can find on YouTube, 3min in), where the cheif medical officer, Dr Murphy, had confirmed that Australia has only had a few critical cases.

Your willingness to forego facts in favor of your own superstitious assumptions in order to push the doomsday fairytale in your head looks even more wreckless now in hindsight.

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

Bondi yesterday... why are we so surprised cases are spiking?

 

[Light_Soda]

Current mortality rate in Australia is 0.7%

Down -0.1% from 2 days ago.

822 active cases are mild - 2 are critical.

We are tracking better than the majority of the world, and this is uplifting to us as a nation and a good sign.

A huge blow to the ego of hoarders, and a huge blow to fear-mongers and those that desire a doomsday scenario.

 

[Roby]

The "serious/critical" (in ICU) data has listed Australia as having had 2 people in that category. Up from 1. Proving this number is not static (and in-line with the worldwide trend).

This data is further exemplified by the coronavirus press conference update on the 20th (which you can find on YouTube, 3min in), where the cheif medical officer, Dr Murphy, had confirmed that Australia has only had a few critical cases.

Your willingness to forego facts in favor of your own superstitious assumptions in order to push the doomsday fairytale in your head looks even more wreckless now in hindsight.

 

[Light_Soda]

We have already time, and time again, been over the conversation regarding Italy, and it has been time, and time again, understood through not only rational thought, but also through data, that Italy is an extreme case, an anomaly. Enough. Educate yourself.

 

[Cuzz09]

20/3/20 - +167 = +23.52%
19/3/20 - +142 = +25.00%
18/3/20 - +116 = +25.83%
17/3/20 - +77 = +20.37%
16/3/20 - +77 = +25.75%
15/3/20 - +49 = +19.60%
14/3/20 - +42 = +20.10%
13/3/20 - +50 = +31.45%
12/3/20 - +24 = +17.78%
11/3/20 = +20 = +18.69%
10/3/20 = +14 = +15.05%

Woooo % comimg down

On SM-G925I using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Roby]

Current mortality rate in Australia is 0.7%

Down -0.1% from 2 days ago.

822 active cases are mild - 2 are critical.

 

[kingswood71]

Current mortality rate in Australia is 0.7%

Down -0.1% from 2 days ago.

822 active cases are mild - 2 are critical.

Can you quickly calculate the death rate for those aged over 80 in NSW with confirmed COVID-19?

 

[Roby]

We have already time, and time again, been over the conversation regarding Italy, and it has been time, and time again, understood through not only rational thought, but also through data, that Italy is an extreme case, an anomaly. Enough. Educate yourself.

Lol. What's a Spain? What's a France? What's USA? What's a Iran? What's a China?

 

[Light_Soda]

Lol. That's a Spain? What's a France? What's USA? What's a Iran? What's a China?

None of those are on the scale of Italy.

However, we are not talking about these countries.

We are talking about Australia, and it's progression at the current time, there is no need to tie Italy or Iran, to what we are seeing for ourselves. This is just your wish to fear-monger and perpetuate an endless mass hysteria - either to justify your decrease in finances due to stupidly hoarding, or the stress you've probably caused others around you.