David King Says It Will Be A Cake Walk! That makes Me Very Nervous.

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How a look at the Cats from round 8 - I started from there for no particular reason

5 games at GMHBA lost to GWS in one of them

Outside beating dogs at Marvel by under 4 goals - they haven’t won any other game away from home.
Cats at RSPCA and Brisbane at the GABBA are pointless form indicators when the whips are cracking
 
Cats at RSPCA and Brisbane at the GABBA are pointless form indicators when the whips are cracking
Lions would definitely take some nourishment from almost beating Melbourne at the 'G. At least proven they can beat them there, 1-1 in the last two. Maybe because the Dees don't have enough fans. Will still be some scars when a game gets tight, but reckon a Grand Final is different, the event overtakes anything else.
 
We are the standout favourites for the flag at $2.92. Three other teams are $6 or longer. However that still only equates to an implied probability of 34% of us winning the flag. Pretty sobering.
 
Is King trying the triple jinx. He is saying the race is over and nobody will come close to us come the finals. It makes me so bloody nervous when media pundits jump on board with such certainty.


Gee, the media folks can’t do anything right?

Talk us down and they’re idiots who don’t know anything.

Talk us up and they’re jinxing us.
 
Best case scenario for us, I reckon, is if the wheels fall off Port and both Brisbane and Melbourne overtake them into 2nd and 3rd respectively.

Play Port at the MCG in week one. I don’t know if that means Geelong would potentially play Melbourne week 2, and then Brisbane at the Gabba in a Prelim if they win out from 5th, but that would be ideal.
 
Best case scenario for us, I reckon, is if the wheels fall off Port and both Brisbane and Melbourne overtake them into 2nd and 3rd respectively.

Play Port at the MCG in week one. I don’t know if that means Geelong would potentially play Melbourne week 2, and then Brisbane at the Gabba in a Prelim if they win out from 5th, but that would be ideal.
We should never fall for that old trick of going easy the week before playing Collingwood, and then throwing the kitchen sink at us the following week. Petty teams have always done this to us throughout history.
 

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We are the standout favourites for the flag at $2.92. Three other teams are $6 or longer. However that still only equates to an implied probability of 34% of us winning the flag. Pretty sobering.

In 2010 I was so uncomfortable with the heavy favourites tag in the grand final that I took out an "emotional hedge": big bet on St Kilda, so if we lost at least I'd win some money. (Happy to lose the money if we won.)

Game day GF1: watched from home but a mate's GF party had to relocate to our place last minute as his aerial dropped out. So I had to watch with a bunch of randoms. A bloke I'd never met sitting on MY couch barracking loudly for St kilda ffs.

When the siren went for the draw I had a sickening feeling that we hadn't won AND I'd lost a lot of money.

But they actually paid out half on the draw, which put me well ahead given the odds - enough to pay for a scalped ticket to the replay!
The only GF I've been to (& a great night at the Grace Darling post game).

I'm considering taking out some emotional hedges this year given those odds...
 
Gee, the media folks can’t do anything right?

Talk us down and they’re idiots who don’t know anything.

Talk us up and they’re jinxing us.
I know people in the media need to come up with something to stay relevant, but there is still a long way to go, and September footy is always different. Cats and Blues have proven that form is often temporary, with injuries the cherry on top. So we are no monty to even make the GF at this stage.

Melb also proved only a few weeks ago that we are beatable, and we still have parts to our game that have been exposed by the good teams, so the job is far from done.

Beat Port over there this weekend and we look a strong chance to keep progressing forward. Lose - with their list under a wear and tear cloud - and either Nick or our forwards held or backline unpicked, and journos will be saying we're back to the pack and its wide open.

One week at a time......
 
I like King's analysis. The vision he shows is very insightful, especially with the behind the goals stuff that we the public don't get to see very often.


But any team can beat any team on any given day. No matter where they are on the ladder or what did they did in previous match or lead up form. Never get a head of yourself or disrespect an opposition it's a given win. That's football. Always has been and always will be.

I'm just enjoying the moment and loving the club. Still alot more joy to come in this home and away before thinking of what can happen in the finals IMO.
 
I’ve got a very 2011 feeling about this unfortunately for me. I was overseas for 5 weeks in 2011 missed most of our games where we blitz teams in 1 quarter.

Away overseas this year for the same time and we are doing nearly the same thing. Geelong and getting primed too 😅😂

Love the way we are playing the last couple of weeks.

I was overseas in budapest for the brisbane grand final and was told by mother that we lost. There is a trend emerging here. For godsake, every pie fan should remains behind the closed doors of their home until the season is finished....it's the least we can do
 
7 or 8 years ago Kingy and his analysis was a little cringe, kind of amateur hour. But he's now almost exclusively the only ex player-cum-expert analyst that I take seriously.

In this instance I think he's called it early. Brisbane will have something to say about this year's flag I suspect.

For me, it's a two horse race.

Defence wins premierships.

It's us or the Dees this year.
 
In 2010 I was so uncomfortable with the heavy favourites tag in the grand final that I took out an "emotional hedge": big bet on St Kilda, so if we lost at least I'd win some money. (Happy to lose the money if we won.)

Game day GF1: watched from home but a mate's GF party had to relocate to our place last minute as his aerial dropped out. So I had to watch with a bunch of randoms. A bloke I'd never met sitting on MY couch barracking loudly for St kilda ffs.

When the siren went for the draw I had a sickening feeling that we hadn't won AND I'd lost a lot of money.

But they actually paid out half on the draw, which put me well ahead given the odds - enough to pay for a scalped ticket to the replay!
The only GF I've been to (& a great night at the Grace Darling post game).

I'm considering taking out some emotional hedges this year given those odds...

I know someone who had a multi of Judd (Brownlow) x Collingwood (Premiership).

After Judd won he got nervous and put some money on the draw too at $101.

Draw cashed, multi was still good as it was “Premiership” rather than “GF winner” and it cashed the following week.

He was laughing in his undies.
 
I know someone who had a multi of Judd (Brownlow) x Collingwood (Premiership).

After Judd won he got nervous and put some money on the draw too at $101.

Draw cashed, multi was still good as it was “Premiership” rather than “GF winner” and it cashed the following week.

He was laughing in his undies.

It was the last bet i made....the saints to win in 2010 and i got my money back first week and went again the following week and lost it. I was going to put more on it the second week to make sure the saints didnt win but I left it at $50. I'll probably start up an account and bet against the pies this year if we make it to the grand final.
 
I know someone who had a multi of Judd (Brownlow) x Collingwood (Premiership).

After Judd won he got nervous and put some money on the draw too at $101.

Draw cashed, multi was still good as it was “Premiership” rather than “GF winner” and it cashed the following week.

He was laughing in his undies.
You never win money on multis. You only borrow it.
 

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