MAWasa
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I honestly don't see this situation with us losing on percentage.... i.e. a small margin, because the lenny factor will make sure st kilda wont go down easily
Preview Finals still alive - Not Anymore
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I honestly don't see this situation with us losing on percentage.... i.e. a small margin, because the lenny factor will make sure st kilda wont go down easily
- Oct 9, 2009
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Apparently Crows need to win by ~70 points more than us, so they're still a chance since St Kilda can lose by heaps; while we're no guarantee to beat GC, given our inability to put in a 4 quarter performance. We should win, but it could end up much closer than expected. Not a forgone conclusion.
lmach
Naitanui2Yeo
They have to win by at least 80 more than us.
Brave Sir Robin
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I made a post elsewhere of a situation where they could get through with a 71 point win. Realistic, but still extremely unlikely.
We just have to hope we beat GC by 40-50 if the crows pump the saints. I just hope that GC players are really tired after a long campaign for the young players.
lmach
Naitanui2Yeo
Was it something like WCE 120-119 GC + ADEL 111-40 STK?
It's always been pretty high scoring between us, and with good weather forecast, might be a shootout. I think that will benefit us more than them, lately when we have been given space to run, we have done really well, JK to kick 7
Brave Sir Robin
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Yeah roughly that's what it would need to be. A high scoring tight win for us to bring our percentage down. I just chose 30 for St K as it's the very lowest end of what I thought was realistically possible.
GCS 109-110 WCE, and
ADE 101-30 STK
It's more likely to be around the 80 to 90 points mark if we have a say 10 point win
Hoping we can win by about 25, or there abouts, I reckon it would be pretty hard to go out and play a game of footy thinking about exactly how much you need to try and win by, could work against them in the end.
EagleCanival
Club Legend
if they were so emotional you would think that they would go out playing motivated, and with nothing to play for next week they can leave it all on the line.
Or it could also go the other way. I'm just saying that the milestone game doesn't necessarily mean they're going to play above their normal ability
Ideal world we win by 30 so we're pretty comfortable, but there is still something in it for Adelaide so they go hard (but still fall short) and Sloane scores 180 DT points so I win my DT grand final.
EagleCanival
Club Legend
It doesn't, but you'd think that they would be coming into the game with a different mindset bit more determination.
Not comparing it to a finals game obviously, but if you were going into an elimination you would be going in with a complete different mindset then a regular home and away match.
Basically what I'm saying is St Kilda finally have something to fight for for the first time since the Dockers, and they aren't going to be easilly belted.
Sam Fisher is hanging up the boots so i think it is possible along with Lennys retirement they put in a much better effort and not go out in a smashing.
And that we don't choke.
I don't really think they've been playing that high level of footy lately tbh.
I think they've benefited from a soft patch in their fixture.
But I think them winning is more likely than the Adelaide percentage scenario.
If Richmond go out and injure a Sydney player in the first quarter, a few of the others might start playing bruise free footy with an eye firmly on the following week.
Richmond on the other hand will be treating it like a GF. Vickery might do an Alistair Lynch
Thing is though, say Richmond will go "all out" what good will that be if they can't front up the next week to play a final? Same scenario as us I suppose, and the pies, and to a lesser extent, the Crows. You would hope that the players would just go out and go hard every week. The energy levels might be a little higher for the first 5 or 10 minutes but you'd reckon after that it go back to being a more normal game.
lmach
Naitanui2Yeo
Ugh, Vickery. You just reminded me how much I'd hate to see Richmond make the finals.
Teams changes looking good for us, no mass resting ALA freo last year. Hawks probably the biggest with Hodge out but the Pies have massive outs too so that should help. No resting at the Swans either, let's hope it all falls into place for us............and we don't choke!!!
lmach
Naitanui2Yeo
Well, Sydney aren't resting anyone (barring a late out).
IN: Sam Naismith, Sam Reid
OUT: Jeremy Laidler (Omitted), Mike Pyke (Illness)
IN: Sam Naismith, Sam Reid
OUT: Jeremy Laidler (Omitted), Mike Pyke (Illness)
Was hoping Mcglynn and JK in for Swans but they still have a pretty solid squad.
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