Preview Finals still alive - Not Anymore

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Masto said:
You are giving Fremantle too much credit. They are certainly beatable - and the pressure in a derby final would be immense. I could see it going either way.
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Too much credit

They played into last year

They have been very consistent footy side for 3 years ...we haven't

Umm...am I missing something

I'm not a fee hater btw......I respect them but they are in the top 4 not by luck
 
Daveismad said:
Too much credit

They played into last year

They have been very consistent footy side for 3 years ...we haven't

Umm...am I missing something

I'm not a fee hater btw......I respect them but they are in the top 4 not by luck
Click to expand...

They beat us by 7 points. We have improved as a side by several goals since then. Our players would be frothing at the mouth for another shot at Fremantle. They should be worried if they play us in the finals. A lot of water to go under the bridge though.
 
I think for Adelaide to have a higher percentage, their margin against the Saints has to be be higher than our accumulated margin against Melbourne and the Suns.

So Adelaide need to beat the Saints by 66 points + the Eagles margin against the Suns + a little more to have a higher percentage.

So if we beat the Suns by 1 point, Adelaide need to beat the Saints by approximately 75 points to have a higher percentage.
 

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Empire_Persian said:
I think for Adelaide to have a higher percentage, their margin against the Saints has to be be higher than our accumulated margin against Melbourne and the Suns.

So Adelaide need to beat the Saints by 66 points + the Eagles margin against the Suns + a little more to have a higher percentage.

So if we beat the Suns by 1 point, Adelaide need to beat the Saints by approximately 75 points to have a higher percentage.
Click to expand...
I worked out that if they beat the Saints by 80 points, they should (depends on the exact score) still be below us. I reckon they will need to beat St Kilda by around 80 + our margin (if we win). It all depends on the exact score though.
 
Spartan said:
What sucks in all of this is if we had beaten Essendon our fate would be completely in our own hands. :mad:
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And you got off to a great start and were pulling their pants down.
 
Spartan said:
What sucks in all of this is if we had beaten Essendon our fate would be completely in our own hands. :mad:
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You could say the same for the Carlton fade out and the losses to Port and Freo.

We could easily be well into the top 8, even top 4 if you're so inclined to think that way. Fact is we aren't there yet and the boys didn't get the job done when the four points were there for the taking.

This year has always been about gradual change and improvement under Simmo though, so I'm happy with where we are. If we can get a bit of finals experience as well it will go a long way for the younger guys in the group.

I personally think we have a lock on that 8th spot BTW. Can't see Sydney resting a lot of guys after what Freo did last year right before finals. The AFL will want a strong Sydney side to keep up appearances.
 
Just crunching the numbers for those that are interested- I assume everyone! Percentage depends on both FOR and AGAINST so for this scenario I'm giving Gold Coast 70 points for and St Kilda 50 points for.

If West Coast... Win by 1 point (71 to 70)
Then Adelaide... Need to win by 80 points (130 to 50)

If West Coast... Win by 10 points (80 to 70)
Then Adelaide... Need to win by 90 points (140 to 50)

If West Coast... Win by 24 points (94 to 70)
Then Adelaide... Need to win by 106 points (156 to 50)

If West Coast... Win by 36 points (106 to 70)
Then Adelaide... Need to win by 119 points (169 to 50)
 
WCE_phil said:
I feel like we don't deserve finals TBH and while i still want us to win every game with the way richmond are playing it would be very interesting if they get in.
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Do we deserve finals less than the team we beat at their home ground, who also lost to Melbourne there?

Or a team that finished a game off top four last year before going 3-10, losing to the Bulldogs and Melbourne along the way?
 

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Quinz said:
Just crunching the numbers for those that are interested- I assume everyone! Percentage depends on both FOR and AGAINST so for this scenario I'm giving Gold Coast 70 points for and St Kilda 50 points for.

If West Coast... Win by 1 point (71 to 70)
Then Adelaide... Need to win by 80 points (130 to 50)

If West Coast... Win by 10 points (80 to 70)
Then Adelaide... Need to win by 90 points (140 to 50)

If West Coast... Win by 24 points (94 to 70)
Then Adelaide... Need to win by 106 points (156 to 50)

If West Coast... Win by 36 points (106 to 70)
Then Adelaide... Need to win by 119 points (169 to 50)
Click to expand...

This analysis is boss, thank you.
 
What you guys really want is for us(Swans) to lose to the bulldogs (today), then we HAVE to beat the Tigers next weekend to secure top 2 for us, and help the Eagles snare 8th spot.
 
Mr Swan said:
What you guys really want is for us(Swans) to lose to the bulldogs (today), then we HAVE to beat the Tigers next weekend to secure top 2 for us, and help the Eagles snare 8th spot.
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What we want is for you to beat Richmond AND Fremantle in the finals so they get no further than the second week. :)
 
Quinz said:
Just crunching the numbers for those that are interested- I assume everyone! Percentage depends on both FOR and AGAINST so for this scenario I'm giving Gold Coast 70 points for and St Kilda 50 points for.

If West Coast... Win by 1 point (71 to 70)
Then Adelaide... Need to win by 80 points (130 to 50)

If West Coast... Win by 10 points (80 to 70)
Then Adelaide... Need to win by 90 points (140 to 50)

If West Coast... Win by 24 points (94 to 70)
Then Adelaide... Need to win by 106 points (156 to 50)

If West Coast... Win by 36 points (106 to 70)
Then Adelaide... Need to win by 119 points (169 to 50)
Click to expand...
Definitely not out of the realms of possibility adelaide leap frogging us on %. We are not certainties by any stretch to beat Gold Coast, so it's hard to see us giving them out a hiding. Adelaide on the other hand could do a serious number of St Kilda.
 
steve hucka said:
Anyone know how much Adelaide will have to beat saints to make up our percentage ?
Click to expand...

They need to win by roughly 80 points more than us.

Quinz said:
Just crunching the numbers for those that are interested- I assume everyone! Percentage depends on both FOR and AGAINST so for this scenario I'm giving Gold Coast 70 points for and St Kilda 50 points for.

If West Coast... Win by 1 point (71 to 70)
Then Adelaide... Need to win by 80 points (130 to 50)

If West Coast... Win by 10 points (80 to 70)
Then Adelaide... Need to win by 90 points (140 to 50)

If West Coast... Win by 24 points (94 to 70)
Then Adelaide... Need to win by 106 points (156 to 50)

If West Coast... Win by 36 points (106 to 70)
Then Adelaide... Need to win by 119 points (169 to 50)
Click to expand...
 
I've uploaded an Excel spreadsheet if anyone wants to play around with the numbers. Just change the scores in the yellow section and the rest will update.

abs9p3.png
 

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Quinz said:
Just crunching the numbers for those that are interested- I assume everyone! Percentage depends on both FOR and AGAINST so for this scenario I'm giving Gold Coast 70 points for and St Kilda 50 points for.

If West Coast... Win by 1 point (71 to 70)
Then Adelaide... Need to win by 80 points (130 to 50)

If West Coast... Win by 10 points (80 to 70)
Then Adelaide... Need to win by 90 points (140 to 50)

If West Coast... Win by 24 points (94 to 70)
Then Adelaide... Need to win by 106 points (156 to 50)

If West Coast... Win by 36 points (106 to 70)
Then Adelaide... Need to win by 119 points (169 to 50)
Click to expand...

As far as I care - you are welcome to it.

We don't deserve it.

opps - this is your board and I still don't care or want it as we have been shizzen this last year or 2.
 
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