Club Focus Geelong 2024

[Ticky009]

Data from footywire. To check the draft order see the thread here.

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[Vindicater]

So which of the older brigade are likely doing their last run around this year?

 

[Pure_Ownage]

So which of the older brigade are likely doing their last run around this year?

Tuohy definitely.
Rohan very likely (injuries this pre season)
Stanley probably (although that may force us to trade in a ruck)
Duncan 50/50 depending on his body
I get the feeling hawk (who will break the games record this year) and danger want to go on and will probably be allowed to.
I think bews will end up in the 2s this year and im not sure he will want to play for another club-it wouldnt surprise me to see him retire.

A lot of the other older guys are still contracted and critical so will stay (blicavs guthrie cameron and stewart mainly).

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Tuohy definitely.
Rohan very likely (injuries this pre season)
Stanley probably (although that may force us to trade in a ruck)
Duncan 50/50 depending on his body
I get the feeling hawk (who will break the games record this year) and danger want to go on and will probably be allowed to.
I think bews will end up in the 2s this year and im not sure he will want to play for another club-it wouldnt surprise me to see him retire.

A lot of the other older guys are still contracted and critical so will stay (blicavs guthrie cameron and stewart mainly).

I've been thinking this was Hawkins last year but who knows, his game style works.

Also, Vindicater if you want an overall feel for list spots Pheonix Foster, Oscar Murdoch and maybe James Willis have to show a bit this year for another contract.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I've been thinking this was Hawkins last year but who knows, his game style works.

Also, Vindicater if you want an overall feel for list spots Pheonix Foster, Oscar Murdoch and maybe James Willis have to show a bit this year for another contract.

Agree with all that plus parfitt might leave as a free agent.

 

[Vindicater]

I've been thinking this was Hawkins last year but who knows, his game style works.

Also, Vindicater if you want an overall feel for list spots Pheonix Foster, Oscar Murdoch and maybe James Willis have to show a bit this year for another contract.

So could be a big turnover for Geelong come the end of the year. First in awhile.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

So could be a big turnover for Geelong come the end of the year. First in awhile.

Yes this year and 2025 will be big turnover of over 30s. Good news is we will have a lot of salary cap room.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

So could be a big turnover for Geelong come the end of the year. First in awhile.

Cats always seem to turn over 8-10 positions regardless and I don't think this year will be different.

2023 we turned over 8 positions. 2022 we turned over 8 players. 2021 it was 10. 2020 it was 9 out the door. 2019 was 7. 2018 was 11.

I don't think the turnover will be much higher than usual, maybe an extra one or two. The difference will be quality of player out the door.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Yes this year and 2025 will be big turnover of over 30s. Good news is we will have a lot of salary cap room.

Awesome that we have cap. Let me just check the free agent list.....

..... oh dear

 

[Joao]

Awesome that we have cap. Let me just check the free agent list.....

..... oh dear

Selwood replacement.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Selwood replacement.

View attachment 1915879

Dons would have to tank bad to not match and I don't know he's the one you'd trade for. He'd be handy as a free agent sure but I doubt he would be.

I'd trade for Bailey Smith, but outside that I doubt there is going to be much available. Everyone good is either on 7 year contracts or about to be.

 

[Joao]

Dons would have to tank bad to not match and I don't know he's the one you'd trade for. He'd be handy as a free agent sure but I doubt he would be.

I'd trade for Bailey Smith, but outside that I doubt there is going to be much available. Everyone good is either on 7 year contracts or about to be.

Mate, you could offer him a bag of twisties spread over 5 years and they'll pass and take the 4th rounder compo.

Well not really, but you get this jist. If anyone was desperate enough to offer end of 1st or even gasp first round compo, reckon the Bombers start looking for reasons not to match.

I don't know why the Cats would be looking to top up this time. The music slows down once Hawkins retires and it stops cold when Cameron goes. Have a crack this year, why not? But you'll end up like the Hawks if you try to stay up too long.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Mate, you could offer him a bag of twisties spread over 5 years and they'll pass and take the 4th rounder compo.

Well not really, but you get this jist. If anyone was desperate enough to offer end of 1st or even gasp first round compo, reckon the Bombers start looking for reasons not to match.

I don't know why the Cats would be looking to top up this time. The music slows down once Hawkins retires and it stops cold when Cameron goes. Have a crack this year, why not? But you'll end up like the Hawks if you try to stay up too long.

Yeah maybe but I don't think we have a many b23 list holes as people might think.

Our backline hasn't changed from the premiership and stewart is the only over 30. He has a few years left and we've added a pick 11 kpd who looks like he may be able to play best 23 next year as a 3rd tall intercepting type.

The forward line loses Hawkins and Rohan but we've added Ollie Henry, Shannon Neale, and Ollie Dempsey. It's not the elite forward line we had but the next few years having Cameron/Henry/Neale as the tall targets is hardly a weak line up if you're adding that to Miers/Stengle/Close at ground level.

We have only really got one weakness on the field and that's midfield. It's the worst place to have a weakness by a mile, but how weak is it? We get a couple of years of Guthrie/Blitz yet and we're developing Bruhn/Clark/Holmes. Conway looks a year away from being a decent AFL ruck.

Honest opinion, and people might think I'm silly, but I think we're only one really good mid away from being back in business. Off the top of my head a 2025 b23 would be

MOC SDK ZGuthrie
JHenry Kolo Stewart
Blitz Guthrie Holmes
Miers Cameron OHenry
Stengle Neale Close
Conway [TRADE] Atkins
Bruhn Bowes Knevitt Dempsey
Sub: Clark

There's 3 players on that list who will be over 30 start of 2025 and 13 premiership players. The non premiership players there are Holmes, Bruhn, OHenry, Clark, Knevitt, Dempsey, Bowes, Conway, Neale. That's 5x guys drafted in the first round, 3x selected in the second round, and one rookie selected.

It could be famous last words, but I don't think our under 30s are as bad a people make out and I think they'd be mad to throw the baby out with the bath water. They just need one elite mid for 2025 then patch any more holes that pop up

 

[moond0g]

Mate, you could offer him a bag of twisties spread over 5 years and they'll pass and take the 4th rounder compo.

Well not really, but you get this jist. If anyone was desperate enough to offer end of 1st or even gasp first round compo, reckon the Bombers start looking for reasons not to match.

I don't know why the Cats would be looking to top up this time. The music slows down once Hawkins retires and it stops cold when Cameron goes. Have a crack this year, why not? But you'll end up like the Hawks if you try to stay up too long.

As mentioned above, our midfield needs some bolstering, but otherwise we have the coverage to at least be competitive. And I'm grateful to support a team that always tries to win rather than have a 3-4 year timeline on success, so I support topping up where needed to try and win.

The other thing that favours us 'topping up' is the age profile of our list. Most Geelong supporters are actually pretty comfortable with the group of <22yo players we have, but those mid-aged players (~25-29yo) are where we have a hole. So, as much as I'd like, and hope, that we'll be able to get in a premium midfielder aged in their mid 20's via either free agency (ideally) or trade and remain a premiership contender in the next few years. Even if there are only B grade options available, we kind of have to go after one or two of these to even out our list demographics

 

[Joao]

Yeah maybe but I don't think we have a many b23 list holes as people might think.

Our backline hasn't changed from the premiership and stewart is the only over 30. He has a few years left and we've added a pick 11 kpd who looks like he may be able to play best 23 next year as a 3rd tall intercepting type.

The forward line loses Hawkins and Rohan but we've added Ollie Henry, Shannon Neale, and Ollie Dempsey. It's not the elite forward line we had but the next few years having Cameron/Henry/Neale as the tall targets is hardly a weak line up if you're adding that to Miers/Stengle/Close at ground level.

We have only really got one weakness on the field and that's midfield. It's the worst place to have a weakness by a mile, but how weak is it? We get a couple of years of Guthrie/Blitz yet and we're developing Bruhn/Clark/Holmes. Conway looks a year away from being a decent AFL ruck.

Honest opinion, and people might think I'm silly, but I think we're only one really good mid away from being back in business. Off the top of my head a 2025 b23 would be

MOC SDK ZGuthrie
JHenry Kolo Stewart
Blitz Guthrie Holmes
Miers Cameron OHenry
Stengle Neale Close
Conway [TRADE] Atkins
Bruhn Bowes Knevitt Dempsey
Sub: Clark

There's 3 players on that list who will be over 30 start of 2025 and 13 premiership players. The non premiership players there are Holmes, Bruhn, OHenry, Clark, Knevitt, Dempsey, Bowes, Conway, Neale. That's 5x guys drafted in the first round, 3x selected in the second round, and one rookie selected.

It could be famous last words, but I don't think our under 30s are as bad a people make out and I think they'd be mad to throw the baby out with the bath water. They just need one elite mid for 2025 then patch any more holes that pop up

As mentioned above, our midfield needs some bolstering, but otherwise we have the coverage to at least be competitive. And I'm grateful to support a team that always tries to win rather than have a 3-4 year timeline on success, so I support topping up where needed to try and win.

The other thing that favours us 'topping up' is the age profile of our list. Most Geelong supporters are actually pretty comfortable with the group of <22yo players we have, but those mid-aged players (~25-29yo) are where we have a hole. So, as much as I'd like, and hope, that we'll be able to get in a premium midfielder aged in their mid 20's via either free agency (ideally) or trade and remain a premiership contender in the next few years. Even if there are only B grade options available, we kind of have to go after one or two of these to even out our list demographics

I would expect Cats fans to be optimistic and good luck to you, history says you have a good reason to be.


But, I think you are both drastically underrating the input from your senior players, and those names won't replace them in a hurry, if at all.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

I would expect Cats fans to be optimistic and good luck to you, history says you have a good reason to be.


But, I think you are both drastically underrating the input from your senior players, and those names won't replace them in a hurry, if at all.

Yeah, I guess I'm not saying we lose a quarter of the list and go win a flag, I'm just saying that I think we have enough young talent to avoid a complete list reconstruction.

 

[Joao]

Yeah, I guess I'm not saying we lose a quarter of the list and go win a flag, I'm just saying that I think we have enough young talent to avoid a complete list reconstruction.

You could, and probably end up in no-mans land, too good to bottom out and not good enough to win.

I know you've done it on the run before, but I don't think you have comparable quality younger players on the list to what you had in the past.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

I don't think you have comparable quality younger players on the list to what you had in the past.

That's the part I really disagree with. I can't think of a time we had this many talented young players in the last 15 years. Like, it's not even close.

 

[Joao]

That's the part I really disagree with. I can't think of a time we had this many talented young players in the last 15 years. Like, it's not even close.

Like I said, good luck to you.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Like I said, good luck to you.

Yeah, just keep in mind this is just answering a specific question about the right course of action for Geelong. Regardless of whether it works, trading in 25 year old mids is self evidently the right decision.

 

[Joao]

Yeah, just keep in mind this is just answering a specific question about the right course of action for Geelong. Regardless of whether it works, trading in 25 year old mids is self evidently the right decision.

Yeah I understand why it looks that way, it just looks different to me.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

You could, and probably end up in no-mans land, too good to bottom out and not good enough to win.

I know you've done it on the run before, but I don't think you have comparable quality younger players on the list to what you had in the past.

We're not an overly positive bunch over on the Cats board, which is ironic considering the success we've seen.

The point being though, even with our pessimistic eyes we can see this is the best group of young players we've had in so long it's not funny.

Now, the bar isn't exactly ultra high, but it's without doubt the best we've had since '01-04, when the dynasty team was in its footy infancy.

The data is there too, with 9 top 25 picks now since 2019, with a couple of rougher gems that we're pretty excited about.

No Cats supporter is claiming it's league best by any means, but it's been a long time since we've had anything close to this.

We know what young duds look like, there was a time not so long ago that James Parsons was amongst our most promising youngters. Yuck.

The key for us is padding the list out with some players in their prime to offset the experience we're going to lose over the next couple years.

Because of trading out of the 2015 draft, and guys like Parfitt, Fogarty, Constable and so on not becoming what we hoped, there's a real vacuum of players genuinely at the peak of their powers.

We're going to go from super old and super young simultaneously, to just super young, and if we don't have some older talent to help steady the ship, it could go south fast, or stunt the development of the kids.

They don't even have to be superstars, but some free agents to assist the Henry, Close, Stengle, Zuthrie types of the world would go a long way, and help bridge that gap from where we are to where we're going.

 

[Joao]

We're not an overly positive bunch over on the Cats board, which is ironic considering the success we've seen.

The point being though, even with our pessimistic eyes we can see this is the best group of young players we've had in so long it's not funny.

Now, the bar isn't exactly ultra high, but it's without doubt the best we've had since '01-04, when the dynasty team was in its footy infancy.

The data is there too, with 9 top 25 picks now since 2019, with a couple of rougher gems that we're pretty excited about.

No Cats supporter is claiming it's league best by any means, but it's been a long time since we've had anything close to this.

We know what young duds look like, there was a time not so long ago that James Parsons was amongst our most promising youngters. Yuck.

The key for us is padding the list out with some players in their prime to offset the experience we're going to lose over the next couple years.

Because of trading out of the 2015 draft, and guys like Parfitt, Fogarty, Constable and so on not becoming what we hoped, there's a real vacuum of players genuinely at the peak of their powers.

We're going to go from super old and super young simultaneously, to just super young, and if we don't have some older talent to help steady the ship, it could go south fast, or stunt the development of the kids.

They don't even have to be superstars, but some free agents to assist the Henry, Close, Stengle, Zuthrie types of the world would go a long way, and help bridge that gap from where we are to where we're going.

I'm not convinced in the slightest about any of that, but I'm not trying to talk you out of being optimistic.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Selwood replacement.

View attachment 1915879

Cant see him leaving essendon.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

No Cats supporter is claiming it's league best by any means

Hey I'm 5 beers deep you can't dictate my life decisions.

But seriously. The question is whether Geelong hit the draft or trade players in and I think it's obvious.

We have a bunch of kids below the retiring guys. Whether you think they're great, or whether you think they suck, it doesn't matter. They need 25-28 year old players to support them. It's literally the only strategy that makes any sense whatsoever