Preview Geelong V Hawks Mon Apr1 2024 @MCG 320pm

[cats_09]

Yea I think this Stanley injury is just a made up rumour and has grown legs to now Cleary "reporting it". Regardless I think Conway plays either this week or the following, but Stanley is definitely needed for 1 of them. Would be reckless of Scott to hold back Conway for so long citing conservativism to then play him 2 weeks in a row with a 5 day break inbetween.

What I have seen reported around Stanley is that he had his knee looked at during the first quarter - but haven't heard too much around that this week

 

[CatRiot]

Does Conway have the motor to go full-time ruck? or we need Blitz to do a massive chop out ?

 

[Mr Meow]

If anyone is underestimating Bowes, I don’t think they can be blamed for doing so.

Bowes really never cracked it as a mid at the GC and ended up literally getting pushed out of the club.

He played plenty of games for us last year and once again, never really locked down that position.

He has started the season just has he started last… looking good in a practice match and then pinging a calf.

It’ll be on Bowes to turn it around and become something he never has been in the AFL.

We are going more on hope than anything with Bowes.

I think he could be a solid player for us.

I couldn’t back him in on being anything above that on years of evidence.

If he does really break out, it’ll be a massive win list management wise for us.

Things have been injury interrupted at the Cats.

If..and only if...he gets a good run at things, Bowes has potential to break out into a C.Guthrie or Duncan-lite. Not quite as good, but a very useful player for a number of years.

We'll see the absolute best of Bowes once a couple retire. But only if he can get his body right.

 

[Vdubs]

I was probably too young to notice Stoneham when he was just starting, but I don't really remember him being a star either. Although, there was hype about him. He probably was in the good to very good category without being exceptional in the 1988-93 era imho, but I was hardly an armchair expert in those years, was only a teen.

He was highly influential at his peak, and his efforts got us over the Dogs in this 92 final.
Amazing effort, switched to ruck, defence and forward in the one match

 

[Footy Smarts]

Stanley has only had 73% and 67% TOG in the first 2 weeks. I don't think it'll be that much more on Blicavs if Conway comes in.

The thing that's really putting strain on Blicavs is the lack of mids. In Rd 1 he only attended 3 centre bounces as a regular mid (not the ruck). With no Atkins or Bruhn that was 16 in Rd 2.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

All the way with T Conway!

Confident he can put up a good show. Hope Stanley can get on the plane to Adelaide though, even if it doesn't end up being required

 

[CHAWKTS]

Stanley has only had 73% and 67% TOG in the first 2 weeks. I don't think it'll be that much more on Blicavs if Conway comes in.

The thing that's really putting strain on Blicavs is the lack of mids. In Rd 1 he only attended 3 centre bounces as a regular mid (not the ruck). With no Atkins or Bruhn that was 16 in Rd 2.

Agree. They really want Blitz as a wing forward which they did in round 1. In Round 2 they had no choice but to get him back to his “old” role of inside mid. In either of those primary roles he is going to ruck 30% of the time. I suspect if we play Conway he will ruck maybe slightly less in first 3 qtrs and then most of last qtr with Conway subbed off for some run.

It has a knock on effect if Blitz is free to go back to wing. Then they prob put Dempsey back mostly forward and Mannagh to sub. But that has nothing (or very little) to do with Stanley vs Conway - other than maybe slightly more likely to sub Conway out in 4th qtr than Stanley?

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Is this team rating score on the app some kind of function of champion data player ratings? Rates Hawks as having a better list than us. What is going on with player ratings? Do they just put a line through players over 30?

 

[FootyLad0]

Is this team rating score on the app some kind of function of champion data player ratings? Rates Hawks as having a better list than us. What is going on with player ratings? Do they just put a line through players over 30?

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Is that the same champion data that ranked Jeremy Finlayson as an "elite" Ruckman, better than all of the actual star rucks of the league?

 

[4quarter_cat]

I've never put any stock in their all algorithms. Raw stats, sure but AFL is such a nuanced game that algorithms can't generate much useful insight. Take out lack of a midfielder that average 30+ disposals a week. Does that mean or midfield is crap or does it mean we don't overuse it at clearances, and spread midfield minutes amongst more players.

And the simpler algorithms they use. Well i don't need a champion data ranking to tell me Lachy Neale is one of the best mids going, or that Petracca bloke is pretty good.

 

[4quarter_cat]

Anyway, this whole conversation tells me 1 thing. 10 days is too long between games of football.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Is that the same champion data that ranked Jeremy Finlayson as an "elite" Ruckman, better than all of the actual star rucks of the league?

I'm guessing this is the Mason "Elite" Cox guys

 

[CatToTheFuture]

For those interested, the full rankings

1 GWS
2 Sydney
3 Carlton
4 Bulldogs
5 Adelaide
6 Essendon
7 Melbourne
8 Richmond
9 Brisbane
10 Collingwood
11 Melbourne
12 Hawthorn
13 Fremantle
14 Geelong
15 Gold Coast
16 St Kilda
17 North
18 West Coast

 

[FootyLad0]

For those interested, the full rankings

1 GWS
2 Sydney
3 Carlton
4 Bulldogs
5 Adelaide
6 Essendon
7 Melbourne
8 Richmond
9 Brisbane
10 Collingwood
11 Melbourne
12 Hawthorn
13 Fremantle
14 Geelong
16 Gold Coast
16 St Kilda
17 North
18 West Coast

Outside maybe the bookends, the rest could be shuffled and you could extrapolate from that and you'd get the same answer as this list.

Good coaching and strategy/structure will always beat stat padding in footy.

 

[Lana]

Is that the same champion data that ranked Jeremy Finlayson as an "elite" Ruckman, better than all of the actual star rucks of the league?

For a statistically stand point an individual raw hitouts add little to a team’s winning probability. As the chain of events from hit out to hitout to advantage to clearance has a really low probability. Most full ruckman have very little variability in hitout to advance to hitout ratio over the course of a season.

Their system considers anything in the top 10% of any category elite

It made sense in the context of the model. He was put in the “Ruckman” bucket as he was attending stoppages but he wasn’t pulling ruckman stats.

He was averaging 5 clearances a game which is elite for a ruckman (probably borderline elite for an inside mid) 3 extra clearances has a much greater value then 20 missing hitouts which on odds would be 2-4 hitouts to advance lost. Furthermore the model doesn’t count hitouts conceded against a ruckman. A flaw but if it did include them it would further serve to devalue ruckman as a cohort

 

[Lana]

Is this team rating score on the app some kind of function of champion data player ratings? Rates Hawks as having a better list than us. What is going on with player ratings? Do they just put a line through players over 30?

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I find the game totals to be quite valid the problem is that the AFL deliberately obfuscates (aggregate then in illogical ways, make it had to pull a players stats in way to get a season overview) the totals in such a way to make it inaccessible so they can package the same stats as a product to the tv shows and papers.

It’s not perfect model in that it punishes player who miss gettable shots too much. And it ascribes next to nothing to lock down defenders ( whose value can be inferred by the reduction of their direct opponent’s outputs). But it is the best available

 

[iameviljez]

For a statistically stand point an individual raw hitouts add little to a team’s winning probability. As the chain of events from hit out to hitout to advantage to clearance has a really low probability. Most full ruckman have very little variability in hitout to advance to hitout ratio over the course of a season.

From a purely observational (and therefore completely unreliable) point of view, hitouts don't matter too much so long as they are a reasonably close contest. 50 hitouts to 35 or 40 aren't going to be a big determinant of a game, whereas a similar differential in i50s or clearances is almost insurmountable.

But it's when one ruckman starts beating the other to the point of predictably winning the hitout, that changes the game because it changes how the two sides set up.

 

[magic_johnson!]

I've never put any stock in their all algorithms. Raw stats, sure but AFL is such a nuanced game that algorithms can't generate much useful insight. Take out lack of a midfielder that average 30+ disposals a week. Does that mean or midfield is crap or does it mean we don't overuse it at clearances, and spread midfield minutes amongst more players.

And the simpler algorithms they use. Well i don't need a champion data ranking to tell me Lachy Neale is one of the best mids going, or that Petracca bloke is pretty good.

I put all of my faith into the squiggle:

Squiggle 2024

live.squiggle.com.au

Currently has Geelong beating hawthorn by 14 before going on to finish top four.

 

[Gunf]

Stats from CD are nice to have but without actually watching a game they are meaningless.

I have seen them give Stewart bottom 5 players on the ground from the system and yet he was nowhere near that bad.

The system weighs some stats more than others and lower some that should be higher but one of the things it cannot measure is footy IQ which is a huge reason some players are elite instead of average or average instead of a spud or even the reverse players that should be elite or average being worse due to no footy IQ.

 

[moond0g]

From a purely observational (and therefore completely unreliable) point of view, hitouts don't matter too much so long as they are a reasonably close contest. 50 hitouts to 35 or 40 aren't going to be a big determinant of a game, whereas a similar differential in i50s or clearances is almost insurmountable.

But it's when one ruckman starts beating the other to the point of predictably winning the hitout, that changes the game because it changes how the two sides set up.

I agree to an extent. If you've got two traditional rucks and one is winning 100%+ more hitouts then it changes the way teams lineup for centre bounces. But hopefully if you've got a ruck that's losing the vast majority of the hitouts, they are adding elswhere in ways that the traditional ruck can't, with clearances, possessions etc. like Blicavs or Finalyson in the example.

I think that's part of the reason people have been frustrated with Stanley over the journey. Because he doesn't do a heap at a ruck contest, which is fine and almost preferable if he can get involved in the play in other ways. But the problem is for all his athletic traits that are discussed, he doesn't get involved in the play that much either.

 

[kittypurry]

I'm craving a bloodbath. I want to see them feathers fly as we rip them to shreds!

 

[year of the cat]

Have a feeling it will be a tight game. And we will be fielding the youngest midfield group we have in years. Looking forward to seeing how they fair.

 

[Hamingja]

Anyway, this whole conversation tells me 1 thing. 10 days is too long between games of football.

Jesus still had time to die and rise again before it gets to our game FFS

 

[magic_johnson!]

I would have:

In: Atkins, Bruhn, bowes, conway, Duncan. Tuohy as sub.

Out: mullin, Dangerfield, knevitt, Stanley, Clark (rest)

It’s a tight squeeze.

I don’t think the midfield is quite right with both parfitt and Atkins in there, but you can’t really drop either right now.

 

[gogeelongcats]

Sadly I think Bruhn and Bowes will both miss because of injury.

Conway will play if Stanley is injured if not I can see them playing both.

Presuming that is the case
Out: Stanley, Mullin, Dangerfield
Ins: Conway, Duncan, Atkins

I cannot wait to get Rohan back.