Worth noting Essendon is the 16th worst team for points for while we are 17th. They might have more experience but their forward line is not too potent though I am worried about Carlisle and Chapman back for them.
Analysis Inexperience watch
- Thread starter Last of the Roys
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16th worst? doesnt that mean the 3rd best!?
I wouldn't be worried about Chapman, he's too old and done.
I wouldn't be worried about chapman, he's too old and done IMO.
Yeah nar, Chappy might only get it twice but he came make your day a misery with those two touches.
Pretty good post by Ron The Bear on the main board regarding how often the more experienced side wins. Might be useful for some context in here:
Viceregal
Premium Platinum
Does he have one on average games played as well?
Not sure. I would guess they wouldn't be all that different though.
That's trickier when you get new clubs introduced like Adelaide and Freo, they're mature players but have low average (AFL) games and distort the figures.
When both teams average > 65 games (which is quite a low number):
\< 10|1843|970|854|19|53.15
\10 - 20|1369|743|614|12|54.71
\20 - 30|885|543|336|6|61.69
\30 - 40|447|291|152|4|65.55
\40 - 50|188|134|52|2|71.81
\50+|83|62|21|0|74.70
\Totals|4815|2743|2029|43|57.41
- Thread starter
- #409
Round 9 - Lions vs. Saints (traditional rivals!) at the Gabba
More importantly, the Saints have more very inexperienced players with 7 players having less than 25 games experience to our 5. Their average games total is also propped by their 3 players who have played over 200 games (Riewoldt, Montagna and Schneider) to our zero.
All in all, this is a definitely a game up for grabs from the experience side of things. Yeah we have injuries to numerous key position players meaning we will have to have a make-shift forward line. But given it is at home, and potentially in some relatively hot weather (it is expected to be 27 in Brisbane on Sunday vs. 15 in Melbourne), and against a side that will likely finish close to us on the ladder, I think we should really be looking to come away with a win.
- (0 to 10 games - Lions 3 vs. Saints 4)
- 0 to 24 games - Lions 5 vs. Saints 7
- 25 to 49 games - Lions 5 vs. Saints 4
- 50 to 99 games - Lions 7 vs. Saints 5
- 100 to 199 games - Lions 5 vs. Saints 3
- 200+ games - Lions 0 vs. Saints 3
- Average games played - Lions 61.2 vs. St.Kilda 77.4 (= -16.2)
- Average age - Lions 22.5 vs. Saints 23.3 (rough estimates from back in Jan)
- Average height - Lions 186.3cm vs. Saints 186.7cm
- Average weight - Lions 85.4kg vs. Saints 84.8kg
More importantly, the Saints have more very inexperienced players with 7 players having less than 25 games experience to our 5. Their average games total is also propped by their 3 players who have played over 200 games (Riewoldt, Montagna and Schneider) to our zero.
All in all, this is a definitely a game up for grabs from the experience side of things. Yeah we have injuries to numerous key position players meaning we will have to have a make-shift forward line. But given it is at home, and potentially in some relatively hot weather (it is expected to be 27 in Brisbane on Sunday vs. 15 in Melbourne), and against a side that will likely finish close to us on the ladder, I think we should really be looking to come away with a win.
Instead of using averages, how about medians? That will offset the dramatic affect of any outliers.
Toffee Lion
BigFooty Rising Star
Judging by the experience difference, if the Saints veterans have a quiet one, we should be in with a chance.
I've had this debate a few times. I don't like the median because it only takes into account two values and discards the other 20. Sure, outliers have a skewing effect on averages, but they're the lesser of two evils IMO.
An example - North Melbourne Round 18 1982
294 Dempsey, Gary
247 Dench, David
228 Greig, Keith
228 Schimmelbusch, Wayne
171 Blight, Malcolm
151 Briedis, Arnold
109 McCann, Steve
104 Glendinning, Ross
91 Tanner, Xavier
26 Kelly, Phil
16 Abernethy, Bruce
16 Dugdale, Dean
15 Krakouer, Phil
14 Holden, Craig
13 Holt, John
12 Atkins, Graeme
11 Dugdale, Glenn
6 McGuire, Kevin
5 Turco, Mario
1 Nimmo, Brad
Average games 87.9, median games 21.0
Admittedly this is an extreme case.
FWIW I do calculate each team's median age and games played. I just prefer not to use them for bulk analysis.
- Thread starter
- #413
Just saw there is a late change with Gardiner (23 games experience) out and Bewick (68 games experience) in. Technically that now makes the game one which we should win under my old inexperience measure that I started this thread with (given we now only have 4 players with less than 25 games experience to their 7, a clear difference of 3 in our favour).
However, whether we can take the continued decimation of our KPP is another thing.
However, whether we can take the continued decimation of our KPP is another thing.
iBeng
Intentionally left blank
- Apr 3, 2012
- 58,148
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- AFL Club
- Brisbane Lions
Im not looking forward to our comparison with the Giants age wise...
- Thread starter
- #415
Well last week turned into an injury blood bath. I think we probably would have won if we had have gone injury free during the game.
Anyway, the injuries don't make for a pretty sight experience wise this week, but in some ways it is lucky we are playing GWS because it could have looked a whole lot worse.
Round 10 - Lions vs. Giants at Spotless Stadium
Overall the 51.9 games experience average for this Lions side is far and away our lowest of the year. In fact, it is probably the second least experienced AFL team to play all year. Unfortunately for us, the least experienced side of the year was almost certainly the Gold Coast side that beat us comfortably in round 5 - they only had 46.4 games experience on average (I guess it shows you though that young sides can sometimes do remarkable things).
The difference in average games played this week is actually only the 6th worst we have faced this year. However, our team and structure have been so utterly devastated by injuries it is hard to see us even being competitive.
Anyway, the injuries don't make for a pretty sight experience wise this week, but in some ways it is lucky we are playing GWS because it could have looked a whole lot worse.
Round 10 - Lions vs. Giants at Spotless Stadium
- (0 to 10 games - Lions 5 vs. Giants 2)
- 0 to 24 games - Lions 7 vs. Giants 5
- 25 to 49 games - Lions 4 vs. Giants 3
- 50 to 99 games - Lions 7 vs. Giants 9
- 100 to 199 games - Lions 4 vs. Giants 3
- 200+ games - Lions 0 vs. Giants 2
- Average games played - Lions 51.9 vs. Giants 74.6 (= -22.7)
- Average age - Lions 22.1 vs. Giants 22.5 (rough estimates from back in Jan)
- Average height - Lions 187.4cm vs. Giants 187.1cm
- Average weight - Lions 85.8kg vs. Giants 84.8kg
Overall the 51.9 games experience average for this Lions side is far and away our lowest of the year. In fact, it is probably the second least experienced AFL team to play all year. Unfortunately for us, the least experienced side of the year was almost certainly the Gold Coast side that beat us comfortably in round 5 - they only had 46.4 games experience on average (I guess it shows you though that young sides can sometimes do remarkable things).
The difference in average games played this week is actually only the 6th worst we have faced this year. However, our team and structure have been so utterly devastated by injuries it is hard to see us even being competitive.
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- Thread starter
- #416
By the way, I have put together a list of our side's average games experience each round this year, the difference to the opposition side and the result.
Our round 10 team is down 25% on experience compared to our round 1 team - despite that round 1 side already been very inexperienced compared to the rest of the League. Actually, if you adjust for the fact that on average we should be up to 9 games more experienced coming into round 10, then our already young side has actually lost 33% of its experience since round 1.
- Round 1, Lions 69 games experience on average, -11.1 compared to Collingwood, lost by 12 points
- Round 2, Lions 65.1 games experience on average, -64.3 compared to North, lost by 83 points
- Round 3, Lions 67.1 games experience on average, -23.8 compared to Richmond, lost by 79 points
- Round 4, Lions 58.9 games experience on average, -25.9 compared to West Coast, lost by 53 points
- Round 5, Lions 65.9 games experience on average, +19.5 compared to Gold Coast, lost by 64 points
- Round 6, Lions 63.5 games experience on average, -14.6 compared to Carlton, won by 9 points
- Round 7, Lions 64 games experience on average, -43.3 compared to Port, won by 37 points
- Round 8, Lions 60.7 games experience on average, -60.6 compared to Essendon, lost by 58 points
- Round 9, Lions 63.2 games experience on average, -14.2 compared to St.Kilda, lost by 22 points
- Round 10, Lions 51.9 games experience on average, -22.7 compared to GWS, ???
Our round 10 team is down 25% on experience compared to our round 1 team - despite that round 1 side already been very inexperienced compared to the rest of the League. Actually, if you adjust for the fact that on average we should be up to 9 games more experienced coming into round 10, then our already young side has actually lost 33% of its experience since round 1.
Didn't think it would be this soon that we would see a GWS side with a higher average games played than the Lions. The disparity is quite even across the games played brackets too.
We shouldn't be surprised to see a bit of a slaughter to be honest. GWS not only have more experience but there younger talent are more, uh, talented.
Elixuh
See you on the 9th green at 9
Think the GC game will almost certainly be our most disappointing loss for the season. Port by far our best so far. Hopefully we can get a win to rival the Port game in the back half of the season.
Paints a very bleak picture of our season up to the bye.
Paints a very bleak picture of our season up to the bye.
- Thread starter
- #419
Round 12 - Lions vs. Bulldogs at Etihad
Looking at the other stats, we only have 9 players with less than 50 games experience in our side to 12 in the Bulldogs team. We also have 6 players with more than 100 games experience to their 4 (although they have 2 x 200+ game players and we don't have any).
There is no reason we shouldn't be able to be very competitive in this game. Obviously the Bulldogs form all year has been far better than ours, so it is hard to pick against them, but we are still in with a legitimate chance of scoring an upset.
(By the way, if Harwood and Gardiner were in the team instead of Bourke and Beasley, the game would probably have been a 50/50 proposition with virtually no games experience difference between the sides, and the Bulldogs having far more very inexperienced players)
- (0 to 10 games - Lions 3 vs. Bulldogs 4)
- 0 to 24 games - Lions 6 vs. Bulldogs 7
- 25 to 49 games - Lions 3 vs. Bulldogs 5
- 50 to 99 games - Lions 7 vs. Bulldogs 6
- 100 to 199 games - Lions 6 vs. Bulldogs 2
- 200+ games - Lions 0 vs. Bulldogs 2
- Average games played - Lions 65.4 vs. Bulldogs 69.5 (= -4.1)
- Average age - Lions 22.9 vs. Bulldogs 23.0 (rough estimates from back in Jan)
- Average height - Lions 187cm vs. Bulldogs 188cm
- Average weight - Lions 85.5kg vs. Bulldogs 85.5kg
Looking at the other stats, we only have 9 players with less than 50 games experience in our side to 12 in the Bulldogs team. We also have 6 players with more than 100 games experience to their 4 (although they have 2 x 200+ game players and we don't have any).
There is no reason we shouldn't be able to be very competitive in this game. Obviously the Bulldogs form all year has been far better than ours, so it is hard to pick against them, but we are still in with a legitimate chance of scoring an upset.
(By the way, if Harwood and Gardiner were in the team instead of Bourke and Beasley, the game would probably have been a 50/50 proposition with virtually no games experience difference between the sides, and the Bulldogs having far more very inexperienced players)
I would not have picked that average games played differential.
Agree, Lions should win this one.
- Thread starter
- #424
Well our close match up in experience with the Bulldogs didn't help last week. Arguably our two most disappointing losses for the year were against the Gold Coast and the Bulldogs - we had an experience advantage in the former, and only a small disadvantage in the latter.
Round 13 - Lions vs. Crows at the Gabba:
It is not an insurmountable challenge, but it is hard to get excited about this one (or any Lions game right now) - we just need something to spark a turnaround in form.
By the way here are the Lions players that are nearest to going up a bracket in terms of games played:
Round 13 - Lions vs. Crows at the Gabba:
- (0 to 10 games - Lions 3 vs. Crows 2)
- 0 to 24 games - Lions 5 vs. Crows 5
- 25 to 49 games - Lions 4 vs. Crows 2
- 50 to 99 games - Lions 7 vs. Crows 7
- 100 to 199 games - Lions 6 vs. Crows 6
- 200+ games - Lions 0 vs. Crows 2
- Average games played - Lions 66.7 vs. Crows 92 (= -25.3)
- Average age - Lions 22.6 vs. Crows 24 (rough estimates from back in Jan)
- Average height - Lions 187.2cm vs. Crows 186.2cm
- Average weight - Lions 85.7kg vs. Crows 86.2kg
It is not an insurmountable challenge, but it is hard to get excited about this one (or any Lions game right now) - we just need something to spark a turnaround in form.
By the way here are the Lions players that are nearest to going up a bracket in terms of games played:
- Harris Andrews will play his 9th game, while O'Brien has played 9 games as well
- McStay is playing his 19th game, while Gardiner is stuck on 23 games
- Clarke is playing his 48th game, Mayes is the nest best on 43
- Hanley plays his 99th game, next comes Martin playing his 86th
- Jed is playing his 196th game, with Merrett the next best stuck on 172
