Leppa's third year.

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I think it's worth considering the counterfactual where we had gone well this year. Say we got 10 wins with each players making the same relative contribution (ie everyone plays a bit better, list order of performance stays the same). That's not enough to play finals yet, but a pretty good result with a young group and would've created a sense of momentum for sure. How would that affect the situation with players? In my opinion:
  • Aish probably leaves either way. It's hard to know his exact reasons, but a common thread is that he would've rather been at a different club from the get go.
  • Leuey is a bit hard to make a call on, but the club could very plausibly have reached the position that we can't afford two first-choice rucks.
  • It's hard to see how we would've reached a different position on Jed. If anything, it is harder to let go of your senior players when you have an underperforming young side. Also, I suspect the strategy that the bulldogs went for (commit to high quality youth) may have had a role in our planning.
  • The factors reportedly influencing the club's position on Redden and Redden's position on the club wouldn't change. He would still have slid a bit down the midfield rankings due to our strong recruiting, Leppa's personality would still be what it is, our likelihood of short term success might look a bit better but I haven't seen anything suggesting Redden is chasing a premiership.
Those things being the case, I don't really think the movements so far indicate much about where Leppa is at. My opinion would probably change if some key players wanted out, but so far there's nothing beyond rumours to suggest that and you'd expect those sorts of rumours when you underperform relative to expectations.

But they do. Leuenberger, Adcock, Redden and Aish. Patfull left last year too, and some weird stuff was going on with Merrett.

God, can you imagine how miserable we'd have felt during the go-home five trades if you could've have told us that within two years we'd have also lost:
  • our captain,
  • our starting ruckman,
  • our dual B&F winner,
  • a young midfielder who'd been top five in our best and fairest the three previous years and a former player's player of the year,
  • Moloney, Raines and now almost certainly Golby, all in the top ten of the B&F in 2013,
  • our first pick in that year's draft.
We are losing or have lost what 24 months ago appeared to be the core of the playing group.

It's scarcely believable how many players have left. Fitzroy in the early to mid 90s are the only even remotely similar precedent I can think of.
 
It's ironic how Leppa came to the club wanting to bring the players together. Yet under him, We are about to face another mass exodus.

3 wins in a season, players wanting to leave and no real game plan. There is no way he will be coaching us in 2017.
 

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It's ironic how Leppa came to the club wanting to bring the players together. Yet under him, We are about to face another mass exodus.

3 wins in a season, players wanting to leave and no real game plan. There is no way he will be coaching us in 2017.
Settle petal.
Jed was told he's not required, and good draft picks have been leaving since the late 90's, as far as Aish goes.
So Redden and Leuey are the only 2 unexpected outs (and even Leuey has been speculated on for a couple of years).
"Mass exodus" is a bit hysterical, don't you think?
 
It's ironic how Leppa came to the club wanting to bring the players together. Yet under him, We are about to face another mass exodus.

I wouldn't say that we are about to face another mass exodus just yet... Sure, there is potential for it to happen, but at the moment it's allegedly Redden, Adcock (who by all reports we pushed out), Aish (unproven) and Berger (not worth the currency when we have Stef). Redden hurts big-time but the others only sting a bit.
 
Aish, Adcock, luey, Redden leaving after we clearly offered them contracts to stay, is rightly defined as an exodus. If this extends to paparone and mayes or rich, Leppa will be gone before draft week.
 

But he has told confidants he does not know where he stands in the club’s plans and feels Leppitsch does not rate him.

Redden has also spoken of his desperation for Craig Lambert to return to the Lions and it was hoped the former welfare manager would convince him to stay.

When he told the club yesterday of his desire to leave, he confirmed his relationship with Leppitsch was the primary reason.

Couple ways that can be taken.
 
Maybe we should get rid of Leppa...What the * is going on. I almost couldnt handle the 2013 exodus and if another was to happen, I would be done. Whats the point when we are used to prop up othe clubs with our players? FFS
 

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Maybe we should get rid of Leppa...What the **** is going on. I almost couldnt handle the 2013 exodus and if another was to happen, I would be done. Whats the point when we are used to prop up othe clubs with our players? FFS

Does it strike you that you are venting pretty hard at a couple of news articles, when it's still about 2 months to go till trade week?

Take a deep breath and step away if you can't handle it.
 
Does it strike you that you are venting pretty hard at a couple of news articles, when it's still about 2 months to go till trade week?

Take a deep breath and step away if you can't handle it.

That's the scariest thing about all of this. There's still 2 months for players to reassess their situation and future. I suspect that we're going to lose more players if stick with Leppa.
 
But they do. Leuenberger, Adcock, Redden and Aish. Patfull left last year too, and some weird stuff was going on with Merrett.

God, can you imagine how miserable we'd have felt during the go-home five trades if you could've have told us that within two years we'd have also lost:
  • our captain,
  • our starting ruckman,
  • our dual B&F winner,
  • a young midfielder who'd been top five in our best and fairest the three previous years and a former player's player of the year,
  • Moloney, Raines and now almost certainly Golby, all in the top ten of the B&F in 2013,
  • our first pick in that year's draft.
We are losing or have lost what 24 months ago appeared to be the core of the playing group.

It's scarcely believable how many players have left. Fitzroy in the early to mid 90s are the only even remotely similar precedent I can think of.
I do agree with you that the rate of turnover has been disappointingly/alarmingly high, but I still think that's not totally fair, in that:

- I'm quite comfortable with the idea that Jed isn't adding enough anymore. I wish it had been handled a bit more delicately, but its not like losing a current captain or an ex captain still at their prime.
- Leuey was our starting ruckman, but I have no doubt we wouldn't be losing him if Stef hadn't made such a strong claim to be first choice, and Trent West showed a bit as a backup
- Patfull was a big loss, but it would've blown my mind if you had said we'd pick up Christensen
- Redden is a bit of a shock, but so was picking up Dayne Beams who I would take over Redden any day of the week if forced to choose
- Moloney retired, and Raines had one more year playing mostly NEAFL then retired, and I don't think any alternative coach or set of fortunes over the last couple of years would've changed that

All things considered, I think we've done pretty well with bringing in good players to offset the ones we're losing. Robbo has been miraculous in light of what we got him for, and Beams and Christensen are really top shelf talents, which can't be said unambiguously about anyone we've lost. I'm also very happy with the kids we've drafted with then, and so far except for Aish they have all signed on. If they stick around, I'm confident they have the ability to form the core of a credible finals team at least.

In hindsight, drafting Aish was probably a mistake. I think our retention issues are such that we can't just draft the best available and trust our system to keep them. Some of that is probably our fault, some of it is systematic disadvantage because of where we are. Other than that, I think our list movements mainly seem bad because of having lived through the GH5 a few years ago, and because we've had a really disappointing year. On their own merits, I don't think the total ins and outs look that bad over a 2-3 year horizon. That said, if we were actually to lose someone like Stef or Zorko, who I was thinking of as key players, my opinion would change.
 
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Kevvo, that last point helps explain why we see this differently, because I'm not confident we've seen the last of players who wanted to be traded. There's a long time to the trade period and there are some really worrying stories floating around.

As for the circumstances in which these players have left, of course there are always individual reasons, but I think it's important to try to look for patterns. Players like Adcock, Leuenberger, Redden and Moloney have become marginalised or disaffected in one way or another, and then they've asked to leave. All of them played better football under Voss, who I don't think was a particularly brilliant coach. It's a worrying trend.

Crisp is another one who left after Leppitsch appeared to decide he was unlikely to make a good quality footballer, but he clearly has shown to be capable of being a good quality footballer under another coach.

No coach gets exactly the list they want; they have to make the best of what they have to some extent. The wider the range of young footballers that a coach can get the most out of, the higher the chance he can be a successful coach. The narrower the range, the lower the chance.

It's great that players have come back the other way, but it doesn't seem like we can count on what we gain matching what we lose going forward.
 
We've been a rabble for 10 years and now we finally have a coach and CEO who want to right all the wrongs of the past and some players can't cop it. Deal with it. They aren't bigger than the club.

Do we though - has anything improved under this new regime or are you just going on your gut feel? Are you sure they are defiant in 'righting the wrongs of past' or is it just that Leppa is a poor people manager, with an uninspiring, confusing coaching message and game plan? You seem so sure that these guys are perfect, what if they are not?

I am not saying they are the wrong people, you just post as if your looking into a crystal ball before each line you write. No one knows what's going on inside take club.

I have seen no evidence of anything to suggest that leppa has become really ruthless or is driving some 'take no prisoners' program all of a sudden, I've seen the opposite if anything. And tbh I think the media campaign and tough talk has been ramped up because they knew this was coming and they got on the front foot and look like they are making these decisions.

I think we have the right admin, but to this point they (Leigh Matthews included) have been a massive failure on and off the field, fingers crossed we can turn it around.
 
Do we though - has anything improved under this new regime or are you just going on your gut feel? Are you sure they are defiant in 'righting the wrongs of past' or is it just that Leppa is a poor people manager, with an uninspiring, confusing coaching message and game plan? You seem so sure that these guys are perfect, what if they are not?

I am not saying they are the wrong people, you just post as if your looking into a crystal ball before each line you write. No one knows what's going on inside take club.

I have seen no evidence of anything to suggest that leppa has become really ruthless or is driving some 'take no prisoners' program all of a sudden, I've seen the opposite if anything. And tbh I think the media campaign and tough talk has been ramped up because they knew this was coming and they got on the front foot and look like they are making these decisions.

I think we have the right admin, but to this point they (Leigh Matthews included) have been a massive failure on and off the field, fingers crossed we can turn it around.

This is not just a couple of bloke rumored to be wanting to leave - this is on top of pretty much our entire list stagnating in their development, blokes looking disinterested, and us getting massacred week in week out.
 
This is not just a couple of bloke rumored to be wanting to leave - this is on top of pretty much our entire list stagnating in their development, blokes looking disinterested, and us getting massacred week in week out.
Sometimes in order to go forward you need to go backwards. The Suns this year are a case in point, a new coach, everyone expected them to push for a top 8, it didn't happen, a swag of injuries and some serious off field dramas (Drugs&alchohol) which exposed some very bad cultural issues which had to be dealt with by the club which meant taking the medicine in the short term. Now they have some solid foundations in place on which to build on.

This is what Leppa is trying to do, and people here who judge everything on a week by week basis or win/loose basis can't see what the club are trying to achieve.
 
If Beams, Christiansen, Robinson all turned around and wanted out after the first contract or Rocky / Hanley asked for a trade then the narrative of a club/coach in crisis would become almost irresistible! Suspect coach would not survive that (outliers not included eg if someone offered Hanley 2million a year would anyone blame him or the club for going)
 
Sometimes in order to go forward you need to go backwards. The Suns this year are a case in point, a new coach, everyone expected them to push for a top 8, it didn't happen, a swag of injuries and some serious off field dramas (Drugs&alchohol) which exposed some very bad cultural issues which had to be dealt with by the club which meant taking the medicine in the short term. Now they have some solid foundations in place on which to build on.

This is what Leppa is trying to do, and people here who judge everything on a week by week basis or win/loose basis can't see what the club are trying to achieve.

Once again, that is your conclusion? because I thought we stripped back to basically bare last year? As mentioned, are you sure that this wasn't forced upon the club and now they are presenting as if its all part of the plan?

What Leppa is trying to do? should not involve having 25% of our top end talent rumoured to be looking for new homes.

This is not a go backwards to go forwards proposition, that was after 2013 - where we knew we could have probley pushed for a 'edge of top 8' finish 2014, but I and most supporters agreed, a cull was the best way forward, full knowing that we would experience a drop away. Potentially losing top end talent and having rumoured deep seeded player disharmony was not part of the plan, infact it was the absolte total opposite of the plan.

There's no more 'going backwards to go forward' that can no longer be used as an excuse, I can except "It is an absolute unmitigated unplanned disaster, of which the club has no control, if it's true (as it would appear) we have an exodus of top end talent on our hands, but I believe in Leppa and my stance on the direction of the club enough to ignore that and keep my faith in our direction".... but I can't handle not only is is all of a sudden 'expectable 'if true' but it is actually a positive move.. that has actually been pushed by the club, that is just far to much denial for one to handle.
 
Do we though - has anything improved under this new regime or are you just going on your gut feel? Are you sure they are defiant in 'righting the wrongs of past' or is it just that Leppa is a poor people manager, with an uninspiring, confusing coaching message and game plan? You seem so sure that these guys are perfect, what if they are not?

I am not saying they are the wrong people, you just post as if your looking into a crystal ball before each line you write. No one knows what's going on inside take club.

I have seen no evidence of anything to suggest that leppa has become really ruthless or is driving some 'take no prisoners' program all of a sudden, I've seen the opposite if anything. And tbh I think the media campaign and tough talk has been ramped up because they knew this was coming and they got on the front foot and look like they are making these decisions.

I think we have the right admin, but to this point they (Leigh Matthews included) have been a massive failure on and off the field, fingers crossed we can turn it around.

While some players have not improved others have. I think Leppa is shaking the tree harder this year and it seems like some players aren't keen on that. I think we have a game plan moving forward but it will take time to implement. No doubt we have under performed this year. At the end of the day what can we expect from the youngest list in the comp with the least amount of top end talent?
 
Kevvo, that last point helps explain why we see this differently, because I'm not confident we've seen the last of players who wanted to be traded. There's a long time to the trade period and there are some really worrying stories floating around.

As for the circumstances in which these players have left, of course there are always individual reasons, but I think it's important to try to look for patterns. Players like Adcock, Leuenberger, Redden and Moloney have become marginalised or disaffected in one way or another, and then they've asked to leave. All of them played better football under Voss, who I don't think was a particularly brilliant coach. It's a worrying trend.

Crisp is another one who left after Leppitsch appeared to decide he was unlikely to make a good quality footballer, but he clearly has shown to be capable of being a good quality footballer under another coach.

No coach gets exactly the list they want; they have to make the best of what they have to some extent. The wider the range of young footballers that a coach can get the most out of, the higher the chance he can be a successful coach. The narrower the range, the lower the chance.

It's great that players have come back the other way, but it doesn't seem like we can count on what we gain matching what we lose going forward.

I've been mulling over this and I think you make a fair point. There does seem to be a pattern of some players being starkly marginalised under Leppitsch.

On the question of playing better under Voss, I don't really agree. Many of those players have battled with injury during Leppitsch's tenure, and players like Rockliff and Martin have clearly improved under his watch. Robinson is playing the best he ever has. Christensen and Beams have been in great form. Even Crisp was in career best form prior to leaving.

Ultimately I am very worried about the risk of another exodus, but a lot of that is still speculative. The outs so far don't worry me half as much as the rumours. What I do know is that Leppitsch was highly regarded as an assistant coach and seems to have the sincere backing of people who've been around the game a long time. While I wish it didn't look like this, we need to try something different as an organisation to break out of this malaise. Maybe leppa's approach won't work, but I feel like we need to commit to it for a little while yet to see if it does.
 
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