Preview National Draft discussion (Picks 14, 35, 43, 58)

[Shoota Welsh]

I know they have spent quite some time with him in the last few weeks & he should still be around by pick 9 or 10. However as I said if Durdin slides, I don't think the Crows will pass on him.

surely lever will be gone before pick 9... teams in front of us that need talls: st kilda, WB, BL, Carlton. he is definitely in the top 4 talls in this draft. ALSO melbourne will likely have 2 picks ahead of us and will likely take a tall with one to progress into frawleys position. right now this is how i think the draft would go down but please correct me if im completely wrong because tbh i havent looked too far into it. knightmare has lever going at pick 3 now in his phantom draft, to GWS as well!

1.) St Kilda - Patrick McCartin (Need Top Quality Tall)
2.) Melbourne - Christian Petracca (Need Gun Mid)
3.) Melbourne - Peter Wright (Best Tall Talent)
4.) GWS - Angus Brayshaw (Best Mid Available)
5.) Brisbane - Jake Lever (Best Tall Available)
6.) WB - Sam Durdin (Best Tall Available)
7.) Carlton - Caleb Marchbank (Best Tall Available)
8.) GC - Jayden Laverde (Best Talent Available)
9.) Collingwood - Darcy Moore (F/S)
10.) Adelaide - Paul Ahern (Best Outside Talent Available)

i just cannot see all of st kilda, melbourne, GWS, brisbane, WB, Carlton overlooking jake lever!

 

[Skippos]

About 8 weeks ago I moved Lever up to a top 5 prospect. At the time most mocks had him outside the top 10, some had him rated at around 20. Yeah, he's consensus come in since then (and I'm not suggesting it was due to me bringing him in, btw, I'm saying that when I did I observed where others had him so I remember.) While he's now rated top 5-10 by most it's worth noting that players go hot and cold really quickly. 2 months ago Lever was outside the top 10 on bigfooty - perhaps we're just overrating him and mistakenly brought him in? At the end of the day he hasn't played any football this year and is coming off an ACL. That's a lot of risk right there.

surely lever will be gone before pick 9... teams in front of us that need talls: st kilda, WB, BL, Carlton. he is definitely in the top 4 talls in this draft. ALSO melbourne will likely have 2 picks ahead of us and will likely take a tall with one to progress into frawleys position. right now this is how i think the draft would go down but please correct me if im completely wrong because tbh i havent looked too far into it. knightmare has lever going at pick 3 now in his phantom draft, to GWS as well!

1.) St Kilda - Patrick McCartin (Need Top Quality Tall)
2.) Melbourne - Christian Petracca (Need Gun Mid)
3.) Melbourne - Peter Wright (Best Tall Talent)
4.) GWS - Angus Brayshaw (Best Mid Available)
5.) Brisbane - Jake Lever (Best Tall Available)
6.) WB - Sam Durdin (Best Tall Available)
7.) Carlton - Caleb Marchbank (Best Tall Available)
8.) GC - Jayden Laverde (Best Talent Available)
9.) Collingwood - Darcy Moore (F/S)
10.) Adelaide - Paul Ahern (Best Outside Talent Available)

i just cannot see all of st kilda, melbourne, GWS, brisbane, WB, Carlton overlooking jake lever!

Can't really discriminate between outside/inside mids as you have with Ahern but grouped all talls together. Just like we need an outside mid over an inside mid, Brisbane need a key forward not a key back. There were times where Brisbane played five or six key defenders in the backline at once (Goose, Merrett, Patfull, Clarke, McStay & Gardiner) and of those three are really quite young. Their backs are sorted. It's the quality forwards they need. Likewise Carlton have a lot of problems they need to fix and could really go any way. They've said they'll be targeting speed this year, for example. Whether they do that I don't know but I'd expect them to go OM or KF, not KD. GC/GWS more likely to go KPD, IMO. GC an outside shot to go KPF actually - they've got three excellent options in Day, Lynch and Dixon but after that there's absolutely no depth or emerging players.

There's every chance Lever slips. Just like there's every chance he goes at 4.

 

[CutAboveTheRest]

He's a defensive liability. 5'11 yet not quick. Too small for anyone reasonably tall and those around his height are too quick for him. Too small to be an effective loose man too.

I don't see him truly becoming a star half back flanker, but there is a thing called natural ability and he's got bucket loads. Only time will tell I guess.

 

[CutAboveTheRest]

how is one thing we lack a half back flanker with a good kick? henderson, smith, jaensch.

Yeah they're ok, but not elite. What seperates the great teams from the ok teams? Kicking abiity sure helps.

Go spend some time watching Wigg, I'm sure you'll eventually come around.

Henderson and Jaensch may be a good kick but when it comes to actually hitting a target, you know the ones where it's the right option rather than a 2 on 1 (that generally costs us a goal)... Then thats where they fall down.

 

[Shoota Welsh]

Yeah they're ok, but not elite. What seperates the great teams from the ok teams? Kicking abiity sure helps.

Go spend some time watching Wigg, I'm sure you'll eventually come around.

Henderson and Jaensch may be a good kick but when it comes to actually hitting a target, you know the ones where it's the right option rather than a 2 on 1 (that generally costs us a goal)... Then thats where they fall down.

still reckon we already have that player in grigg. could easily be played off HBF.

 

[Skippos]

I don't see him truly becoming a star half back flanker, but there is a thing called natural ability and he's got bucket loads. Only time will tell I guess.

And to an extent I agree, if defence didn't matter. Unfortunately for him in today's game it does more than ever, especially if you're actually a defender.

Think his kicking is overrated too. He's not elite (though he's top 3-5 for juniors this yr) he's just very good. Think Nick Suban.

 

[billy fragos]

If Durdin is gone we go for ahern, good speed, outside runner, can kick goals and amazing accuracy, we can't take a risk with lever and we certainly shouldn't use our pick on a player who is ranked over 4 or 5 picks lower than what ours is

 

[Skippos]

If Durdin is gone we go for ahern, good speed, outside runner, can kick goals and amazing accuracy, we can't take a risk with lever and we certainly shouldn't use our pick on a player who is ranked over 4 or 5 picks lower than what ours is

There's every chance clubs rate Ahern outside the top 15.

And to quote yourself: 'we certainly shouldn't use our pick on a player who is ranked over 4 or 5 picks lower than what ours is'

 

[CutAboveTheRest]

still reckon we already have that player in grigg. could easily be played off HBF.

Shoota - You have no argument from me there, mate. A big fan of Mitch, just hope he gets more of a run next year.

 

[CutAboveTheRest]

And to an extent I agree, if defence didn't matter. Unfortunately for him in today's game it does more than ever, especially if you're actually a defender.

Think his kicking is overrated too. He's not elite (though he's top 3-5 for juniors this yr) he's just very good. Think Nick Suban.

Skippos - I rate you highly, but on this one we will have to agree to disagree on his kicking ability.

 

[Tex200]

There's every chance clubs rate Ahern outside the top 15.

And to quote yourself: 'we certainly shouldn't use our pick on a player who is ranked over 4 or 5 picks lower than what ours is'

Mate many thanks for your outstanding work, great to have an Adelaide board resident expert.

All the chocolates seem wrapped up between 1-7, Moore at 8 and then it descends to a bit of a crap shoot.

Is this a year we really need to try and trade up a bit further, or is there some remote chance of a slider. Can't see it myself and have a feeling we need to be in that 1-7 bracket.

Thoughts ?

 

[Skippos]

Skippos - I rate you highly, but on this one we will have to agree to disagree on his kicking ability.

Yeah I seem to be going against the grain on this one I do admit. Over 30-35 I rate him, darts it and normally to the spot. Long kicks too often are just long bombs to contests/the safe option to really rate there. Vision is good but decision making still needs work. Could get there but I'd much prefer a Viojo, Weller or McDonagh with ball in hand. Perhaps even McGuinness, Daniel and Ellis.

Mate many thanks for your outstanding work, great to have an Adelaide board resident expert.

All the chocolates seem wrapped up between 1-7, Moore at 8 and then it descends to a bit of a crap shoot.

Is this a year we really need to try and trade up a bit further, or is there some remote chance of a slider. Can't see it myself and have a feeling we need to be in that 1-7 bracket.

Thoughts ?

To an extent I agree. McCartin, Brayshaw, Petracca, Moore, Durdin and Heeney are virtually a consensus top 7 players at the moment with Pickett, Lever and McKenzie occasionally appearing in that eighth slot (with Lever more often than not projected for 5-6 due to needs). With Heeney committed later it leaves really 7 top tier players borderline guaranteed to go 1-6 and 8. Trading up would be difficult given we'd need to get up to pick 6 to make it worthwhile, and the teams at 5 and 6 both are going to want to retain their picks.

At 9, assuming things pan out the way I'm expecting them to at the top end, we'll have all bar one of Pickett, Laverde, Marchbank, Weller, Goddard and Menadue available to us. Yeah, it's a step down as they're all bigger risks (bar Goddard - he's a safe bet as a defender) than the aforementioned 7-8 top tier players but their upside is all just as strong. That's what separates 1-8 and 9-16 in this crop, risk. It's my 'buzzword' for this draft as it's really so relevant to this draft among others. It's not like the top players have different ceilings - to an extent they're all similar, it's just that some have far more bust potential.

If we get our pick right and develop them well it'll be no different to having pick 5-6. I just doubt the capacity of our club to do that.

 

[CutAboveTheRest]

I personally hope we go for somebody like Marchbank in this draft.

Yeah I seem to be going against the grain on this one I do admit. Over 30-35 I rate him, darts it and normally to the spot. Long kicks too often are just long bombs to contests/the safe option to really rate there. Vision is good but decision making still needs work. Could get there but I'd much prefer a Viojo, Weller or McDonagh with ball in hand. Perhaps even McGuinness, Daniel and Ellis.



To an extent I agree. McCartin, Brayshaw, Petracca, Moore, Durdin and Heeney are virtually a consensus top 7 players at the moment with Pickett, Lever and McKenzie occasionally appearing in that eighth slot (with Lever more often than not projected for 5-6 due to needs). With Heeney committed later it leaves really 7 top tier players borderline guaranteed to go 1-6 and 8. Trading up would be difficult given we'd need to get up to pick 6 to make it worthwhile, and the teams at 5 and 6 both are going to want to retain their picks.

At 9, assuming things pan out the way I'm expecting them to at the top end, we'll have all bar one of Pickett, Laverde, Marchbank, Weller, Goddard and Menadue available to us. Yeah, it's a step down as they're all bigger risks (bar Goddard - he's a safe bet as a defender) than the aforementioned 7-8 top tier players but their upside is all just as strong. That's what separates 1-8 and 9-16 in this crop, risk. It's my 'buzzword' for this draft as it's really so relevant to this draft among others. It's not like the top players have different ceilings - to an extent they're all similar, it's just that some have far more bust potential.

If we get our pick right and develop them well it'll be no different to having pick 5-6. I just doubt the capacity of our club to do that.

Skippos providing the goods again!

All three of these kids (highlighted) are who I believe will be our top pick. I personally, hope we target Marchbank but wouldn't complain if we got either Weller or Laverde.

I'd love to know your thoughts on Goddard. I'm not his biggest fan as I don't think he's got the brain capacity to make it in the big league. Burns the footy and tends to panic.

I'm feeling this draft will provide some real gems going into the 25-35 range and will really make recruiters earn their money.

 

[Skippos]

I personally hope we go for somebody like Marchbank in this draft.


Skippos providing the goods again!

All three of these kids (highlighted) are who I believe will be our top pick. I personally, hope we target Marchbank but wouldn't complain if we got either Weller or Laverde.

I'd love to know your thoughts on Goddard. I'm not his biggest fan as I don't think he's got the brain capacity to make it in the big league. Burns the footy and tends to panic.

I'm feeling this draft will provide some real gems going into the 25-35 range and will really make recruiters earn their money.

I think we'll go Marchbank too. On exposed form he's a good list fit. Like Wigg though I'm a little worried about how he'll translate. There are plenty of elite 192-193cm KPDs in the comp but I can't help but feel they're needing to get taller and taller nowadays. A bit like how 196cm is the new 193cm for forwards and 199cm the new 196cm from 10 years ago. The forwards are getting taller - need only look at the current crop of Daniher, Boyd, Patton and Wright to notice that. Anyway, at 193cm he can definitely make it but I'm just not sure he's got it going for him. His shoulders are really narrow as is his frame, he's not wide bodied naturally so physically he's never going to be a Frawley type physical beast I don't think. He's not quick nor is he very agile so he's never going to be someone who's able to really close down leads or neutralise at ground level either. He's excellent one on one at the moment but I wonder how that'll translate against smarter forwards with not only better positioning nous but much, much more physical strength. Being Adelaide based I've only seen him three times in the champs and twice earlier in the year but I do wonder how he goes when having to stop the big 196-200cm power forwards (ideally he wouldn't be matched up on them) or the smaller but very athletic types. His intercept game is good and should translate but despite that he's ordinary with ball in hand.

tl;dr It wouldn't be the worst result if we got Marchbank but I'm just not sold. At 193cm I'd want him to be a little wider bodied and more athletic. Offensively his 'defensive marking' and intercept marking is excellent but defensively I've got worries.

As for Goddard, I've got this belief (and I hope defenders don't find this demeaning!) but key defence is suited to forwards without smarts. It's a bit like how comedy actors can do drama but drama actors can't always do comedy, key forwards can do key back but key backs can't always do key forward. There's less need for a key back to be smart as they don't need to create their own opportunities (which requires smarts and a good read of the game to do well.) Instead they can play off their direct opponent, letting them do all the smart stuff and just following and negating while playing off them when necessary. He's got speed and acceleration to close down leads, the agility to dominate at ground level, the work rate to follow hard and the body strength to compete one on one. Defensively I think he's excellent. Offensively he might be a little lacking with his ability to intercept and take big grabs not great and he doesn't really rebound much. But let's be fair, Talia isn't great offensively either. Some of the best key defenders in the league have an offensive game but many don't. It's hardly a pre-requisite. And Goddard's defensive game is really sound, more so than anyone in the draft IMO. I could conceivably see him getting close to a Frawley/Richards/MacKenzie kind of level down back so I don't have those worries. As a forward he shouldn't even be in the conversation though.

I agree about the gems. They'll definitely be there.

 

[crows dude]

surely lever will be gone before pick 9... teams in front of us that need talls: st kilda, WB, BL, Carlton. he is definitely in the top 4 talls in this draft. ALSO melbourne will likely have 2 picks ahead of us and will likely take a tall with one to progress into frawleys position. right now this is how i think the draft would go down but please correct me if im completely wrong because tbh i havent looked too far into it. knightmare has lever going at pick 3 now in his phantom draft, to GWS as well!

1.) St Kilda - Patrick McCartin (Need Top Quality Tall)
2.) Melbourne - Christian Petracca (Need Gun Mid)
3.) Melbourne - Peter Wright (Best Tall Talent)
4.) GWS - Angus Brayshaw (Best Mid Available)
5.) Brisbane - Jake Lever (Best Tall Available)
6.) WB - Sam Durdin (Best Tall Available)
7.) Carlton - Caleb Marchbank (Best Tall Available)
8.) GC - Jayden Laverde (Best Talent Available)
9.) Collingwood - Darcy Moore (F/S)
10.) Adelaide - Paul Ahern (Best Outside Talent Available)

i just cannot see all of st kilda, melbourne, GWS, brisbane, WB, Carlton overlooking jake lever!

Why are we now Pick 10. Have Melbourne been given a Priority Pick.

 

[Matman23]

I haven't looked into this years draft too much but I'm hearing massive wraps on Caleb Daniel. People even comparing him to Gary Ablett. Is it realistic that he will be there at our third?

 

[Crowked]

I think we'll go Marchbank too. On exposed form he's a good list fit. Like Wigg though I'm a little worried about how he'll translate. There are plenty of elite 192-193cm KPDs in the comp but I can't help but feel they're needing to get taller and taller nowadays. A bit like how 196cm is the new 193cm for forwards and 199cm the new 196cm from 10 years ago. The forwards are getting taller - need only look at the current crop of Daniher, Boyd, Patton and Wright to notice that. Anyway, at 193cm he can definitely make it but I'm just not sure he's got it going for him. His shoulders are really narrow as is his frame, he's not wide bodied naturally so physically he's never going to be a Frawley type physical beast I don't think. He's not quick nor is he very agile so he's never going to be someone who's able to really close down leads or neutralise at ground level either. He's excellent one on one at the moment but I wonder how that'll translate against smarter forwards with not only better positioning nous but much, much more physical strength. Being Adelaide based I've only seen him three times in the champs and twice earlier in the year but I do wonder how he goes when having to stop the big 196-200cm power forwards (ideally he wouldn't be matched up on them) or the smaller but very athletic types. His intercept game is good and should translate but despite that he's ordinary with ball in hand.

tl;dr It wouldn't be the worst result if we got Marchbank but I'm just not sold. At 193cm I'd want him to be a little wider bodied and more athletic. Offensively his 'defensive marking' and intercept marking is excellent but defensively I've got worries.

As for Goddard, I've got this belief (and I hope defenders don't find this demeaning!) but key defence is suited to forwards without smarts. It's a bit like how comedy actors can do drama but drama actors can't always do comedy, key forwards can do key back but key backs can't always do key forward. There's less need for a key back to be smart as they don't need to create their own opportunities (which requires smarts and a good read of the game to do well.) Instead they can play off their direct opponent, letting them do all the smart stuff and just following and negating while playing off them when necessary. He's got speed and acceleration to close down leads, the agility to dominate at ground level, the work rate to follow hard and the body strength to compete one on one. Defensively I think he's excellent. Offensively he might be a little lacking with his ability to intercept and take big grabs not great and he doesn't really rebound much. But let's be fair, Talia isn't great offensively either. Some of the best key defenders in the league have an offensive game but many don't. It's hardly a pre-requisite. And Goddard's defensive game is really sound, more so than anyone in the draft IMO. I could conceivably see him getting close to a Frawley/Richards/MacKenzie kind of level down back so I don't have those worries. As a forward he shouldn't even be in the conversation though.

I agree about the gems. They'll definitely be there.

Well you've talked me out of Marchbank. Too small, too slow, poor agility and ordinary skills to boot.

 

[LC40]

If people want to see Durdin for themselves then get to Gliderol stadium (Glenelg oval) at 11.25am this Saturday. He is playing in the preliminary final for West vs North along with Jesse Watchman and a host of juniors all hoping to put their best foot forward to catch a recruiters eye.

 

[Shoota Welsh]

Why are we now Pick 10. Have Melbourne been given a Priority Pick.

you would think theyd be given pick 3 in compensation for frawley, even though he is clearly not worth that much

 

[CutAboveTheRest]

I haven't looked into this years draft too much but I'm hearing massive wraps on Caleb Daniel. People even comparing him to Gary Ablett. Is it realistic that he will be there at our third?

Kid is smart and has a mound of talent only issue with him is that he's 165cm..

 

[Johnny Rutten]

Kid is smart and has a mound of talent only issue with him is that he's 165cm..

168cm according to the South Adelaide website. But whichever way you spin it, he is a midget... but a mighty one.

 

[LC40]

surely lever will be gone before pick 9... teams in front of us that need talls: st kilda, WB, BL, Carlton. he is definitely in the top 4 talls in this draft. ALSO melbourne will likely have 2 picks ahead of us and will likely take a tall with one to progress into frawleys position. right now this is how i think the draft would go down but please correct me if im completely wrong because tbh i havent looked too far into it. knightmare has lever going at pick 3 now in his phantom draft, to GWS as well!

1.) St Kilda - Patrick McCartin (Need Top Quality Tall)
2.) Melbourne - Christian Petracca (Need Gun Mid)
3.) Melbourne - Peter Wright (Best Tall Talent)
4.) GWS - Angus Brayshaw (Best Mid Available)
5.) Brisbane - Jake Lever (Best Tall Available)
6.) WB - Sam Durdin (Best Tall Available)
7.) Carlton - Caleb Marchbank (Best Tall Available)
8.) GC - Jayden Laverde (Best Talent Available)
9.) Collingwood - Darcy Moore (F/S)
10.) Adelaide - Paul Ahern (Best Outside Talent Available)

i just cannot see all of st kilda, melbourne, GWS, brisbane, WB, Carlton overlooking jake lever!

I'm was unaware that Melbourne has secured pick 3 yet with a priority pick, it would be news to me.

Brayshaw if he slipped would be my No 1 but I like most here want Lever who could realistically still be there at our pick.
Having said that this analysis still leaves Goddard on the board. I think we would be foolish to overlook him if Lever is gone. He could be our key back for a long time.
Whatever happens we'll get a really nice player, it depends on what Sanderson and the drafting staff feel is the number one priority;Speed or defence.

 

[CutAboveTheRest]

168cm according to the South Adelaide website. But whichever way you spin it, he is a midget... but a mighty one.

You don't need to convince me of his ability mate.

I love natural talent and true football nous, unlike some of these 190cm "athlete" types who struggle to understand the small pieces of the puzzle.

 

[billy fragos]

168cm according to the South Adelaide website. But whichever way you spin it, he is a midget... but a mighty one.

168... Hes grown a centre meter

 

[Bailey01]

so if possible Durdin looks like the best pickup if we can get him.

168... Hes grown a center meter

Probs should get Daniel as a 3rd rounder. I would prefer picking Lever instead of Durdin, less of a risk.