October - Not a true Group 1 rated thread. #spring

[iluvparis]

I don't have to worry about your suspicions when I continue to win well on the punt, my understanding is just fine.

Unlike you I'm not emotionally attached which you have admitted that you are.

You do post a lot in here but I don't remember a hell of a lot of your thoughts coming to fruition.

Ok mate

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

To label him our best middle-distance galloper on that one performance that is highly questionable shows no understanding of the sport.

 

[Main Man]

No mate - as stated above - and which you totally ignore again and again - the form book does back up my views. The QE stands out like dogs balls like a freak, unrepeated performance that overstates his true ability. That's all you point too and never bother talking about his other performances and why they, in fact, may reflect his true level of ability.

I never said he was a Handicapper - I just asserted he is just a run of the mill WFA horse which the form book says he is.

YOU are labelling him our best performed horse in 2015 and can't explain why he has only won 1 race if that is in fact true.

You are incompotent.

You are completely ignoring the Ryder which was the form race of the year, 3 of the first 4 home were the first 3 home in the Doncaster and Kermadec/Royal Descent have since gone onto win WFA races this Spring.

His run in the Ryder is equal to or better than any other performance by a middle distance horse this year.

2 of his 3 Australian runs have been as good as any performance by any Australian horse so far in 2015.

 

[iluvparis]

His run in the Ryder is equal to or better than any other performance by a middle distance horse this year.

2 of his 3 Australian runs have been as good as any performance by any Australian horse so far in 2015.

Disagree but good luck to you

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Main Man iluvparis and everyone else…

I bring you the George Ryder replay:

http://racing.racingnsw.com.au/Free...ategory=Professional&VideoFileType=FullReplay

Make up your own mind, but clearly, CLEARLY, you can see that the best run/horse in that race was Kermadec..Stevie Wonder wouldn't even argue with me.

Flops out of the gates, 3-4 lengths off Criterion at the turn, checked in the straight, held up for a run, passes plenty in the last 100m. Meanwhile Criterion got the greatest run you have seen and never left the rail throughout.

Thats my view, and you're wrong if you see it any other way.

 

[Main Man]

Main Man iluvparis and everyone else…

I bring you the George Ryder replay:

http://racing.racingnsw.com.au/Free...ategory=Professional&VideoFileType=FullReplay

Make up your own mind, but clearly, CLEARLY, you can see that the best run/horse in that race was Kermadec..Stevie Wonder wouldn't even argue with me.

Flops out of the gates, 3-4 lengths off Criterion at the turn, checked in the straight, held up for a run, passes plenty in the last 100m. Meanwhile Criterion got the greatest run you have seen and never left the rail throughout.

Thats my view, and you're wrong if you see it any other way.

I have said Kermadec was a very good run in the race, why do you think I was all over him in the Doncaster? However he was 4th up and Criterion was 2nd up on a brutal speed, he got the good run but that is the horse making his own luck and Kermadecs pattern is to get back whether he missed the kick or not, you don't know how either horse would have performed if you swapped the runs, that is pure speculation.

I have them being very equal runs as I personally don't put that much emphasis on poor luck as you are guessing as to how the horse would have gone with that luck.

It is like some people saying Press Statement would have crossed the line with Exosphere in the Golden Rose with even luck, that is crap for mine.

I'm saying that on ability and performance in 2015 Criterion is equal to or better than any other horse in Australia, Kermadec the only other comparable horse but at the same time he has had some moderate runs himself, his first two runs this campaign were good without being outstanding.

I think his win last start was good but I would still have the Ryder ahead of that by a comfortable margin.

As I continue to say Royal Desecent is a fair benchmark and Criterion was in a different league to her in the Autumn.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

I have said Kermadec was a very good run in the race, why do you think I was all over him in the Doncaster? However he was 4th up and Criterion was 2nd up on a brutal speed, he got the good run but that is the horse making his own luck and Kermadecs pattern is to get back whether he missed the kick or not, you don't know how either horse would have performed if you swapped the runs, that is pure speculation.

I have them being very equal runs as I personally don't put that much emphasis on poor luck as you are guessing as to how the horse would have gone with that luck.

It is like some people saying Press Statement would have crossed the line with Exosphere in the Golden Rose with even luck, that is crap for mine.

I'm saying that on ability and performance in 2015 Criterion is equal to or better than any other horse in Australia, Kermadec the only other comparable horse but at the same time he has had some moderate runs himself, his first two runs this campaign were good without being outstanding.

I think his win last start was good but I would still have the Ryder ahead of that by a comfortable margin.

As I continue to say Royal Desecent is a fair benchmark and Criterion was in a different league to her in the Autumn.

Its cool, but this and yours and Paris' baby. Im just saying what i saw and providing everyone with a replay of the Ryder.

Im here to eat popcorn.

 

[sethlad]

Laid 6/4 there would be a mention of how well someone does on the punt in this discussion.
Now cast for weekend,anyone want to buy my Guineas ticket?

seth

 

[iluvparis]

So the benchmark is a horse that has won 1 race in two years.

I think Royal Descent and Crtierion are a good comparison - both genuine WFA horses but there are plenty better as evidenced by their pathetic win rates over the last two years.

 

[iluvparis]

If there was a horse of the year for 2015 held tonight only does anyone think Criterion would be declared the winner?

Kermadec, Contributer, Dissident would all get more votes for a start.

 

[Main Man]

So the benchmark is a horse that has won 1 race in two years.

I think Royal Descent and Crtierion are a good comparison - both genuine WFA horses but there are plenty better as evidenced by their pathetic win rates over the last two years.

Yet you are all over Kermadec who has won 2 of 8, both wins on "bog" tracks one of which was a handicap where he was very well weighted. You can't have it both ways.

At this stage there are no stars in the WFA ranks, on performance in 2015 Criterion and Kermdec are the benchmarks, who knows what Criterion would have done if he had not gone overseas but I doubt any other Australian horse would have done any better against the Worlds best.

Simple as that.

 

[iluvparis]

Yet you are all over Kermadec who has won 2 of 8, both wins on "bog" tracks one of which was a handicap where he was very well weighted. You can't have it both ways.

At this stage there are no stars in the WFA ranks, on performance in 2015 Criterion and Kermdec are the benchmarks, who knows what Criterion would have done if he had not gone overseas but I doubt any other Australian horse would have done any better against the Worlds best.

Simple as that.

You realise racing did actually exist before the QE this year?

 

[Main Man]

You realise racing did actually exist before the QE this year?

Your eyes must be painted on.

I have said that I didn't rate Criterion all that highly at this time last year, I had only ever backed him once in my life in the Derby, I backed Fawkner in this race last year and was surprised at how well Criterion ran, however I again backed Fawkner in the Cox Plate as I was still not convinced by Criterion, I thought his run was excelent in the Cox Plate given he never handled MV, you disagree for whatever reason.

Based on his Autumn performances I have him a 2 length better horse now than he was 12 months ago which puts him as the benchmark of Australian horses.

Horses do improve you know and he was only a young 4yo this time last year with a similar record to Kermadec to be honest.

Why is this so hard for you to comprehend?

 

[iluvparis]

The debate is going nowhere - but my final comment on the matter until post race is to set out my logic:

His QE win was a freak performance (ample evidence to suggest this was the case).
Igoring that one race - he is not much better now than he was in 2014.
Last spring Fawkner was clearly superior, and horses such as Happy Trails were his equal
In the Autumn - Contributer was superior
Now Kermadec is superior.
He hasn't won on firm ground since he was a 2yo.
He has never been, nor will be, the best horse in Australia.

QED

Edit: how MM thinks Criterion's spring 4yo campaign was every bit as good as Kermadec's at the same stage is mind boggling - but apparently i'm the one whose biased.

 

[Main Man]

The debate is going nowhere - but my final comment on the matter until post race is to set out my logic:

His QE win was a freak performance (ample evidence to suggest this was the case).
Igoring that one race - he is not much better now than he was in 2014.
Last spring Fawkner was clearly superior, and horses such as Happy Trails were his equal
In the Autumn - Contributer was superior
Now Kermadec is superior.
He hasn't won on firm ground since he was a 2yo.
He has never been, nor will be, the best horse in Australia.

QED

Edit: how MM thinks Criterion's spring 4yo campaign was every bit as good as Kermadec's at the same stage is mind boggling - but apparently i'm the one whose biased.

I said similar knucklehead, Kermadec has won 1 of 3 races, hardly dominant to this stage is he?

Contributer was not better performed in the Autumn, 2 of Criterions runs in the Ryder and QE are superior to any of Contributers runs, that cannot be argued with as the form now is clear evidence of that.

On paper which seems to be the World you live in you would say Contributers performance might rate better but the actual quality of performance is with Criterion.

Criterion form = Kermadec, Royal Descent, Real Impact

Contirbuter form = Hartnell (big ? marks this time) Lucia Valentina, Ninth Leigon, Weary - not to mention the fact he has looked well off the pace this time in.

Did I say Criterion was better than Fawkner last Spring or did you just completely ignore my last post saying I was backing Fawkner to beat him this time last year?

You will say whatever you want to suit your own deluded argument.

 

[rideclutch]

Please God let Criterion win

 

[rideclutch]

Its cool, but this and yours and Paris' baby. Im just saying what i saw and providing everyone with a replay of the Ryder.

Im here to eat popcorn.

I'm giving it to Main Man on points for use of the terms "knucklehead" and referencing "Paris' world".

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

I'm giving it to Main Man on points for use of the terms "knuclehead" and referencing "Paris' world".

I picture him mashing his keyboard before taking a deep breath then posting while grinding his teeth.

I Caterion, not for what he has done on the track, purely for what he brings to this board.

 

[Main Man]

Please God let Criterion win

I'll be happy if either Criterion or Kermadec wins.

 

[Main Man]

Interestingly I have backed Criterion for 3 times in my life for 2 wins and a narrow 2nd whilst I have backed Kermadec 2 times for 2 wins.

Iluvparis seems to think I'm totally biased to Criterion which could not be further from the truth.

I rate both horses and have no preference either way.

They are evenly matched in ability although I do have Criterion slightly ahead on his peak performances.

 

[rideclutch]

I'll be happy if either Criterion or Kermadec wins.

Is there enough tempo for both of them to come home over the top of say Fawkner who will get every possible favour?

Entirely Platinum has been doing a lot of travelling too, there's a small chance he could come out which would potentially change things a bit.

 

[Main Man]

Is there enough tempo for both of them to home over the top of say Fawkner who will get every possible favour?

Entirely Platinum has been doing a lot of travelling too, there's a small chance he could come out which would potentially change things a bit.

They plan on going forward with Criterion, potentially leading or at worst first 4, I think the quality of horse will ensure there is enough tempo for every horse to get their chance.

The advantage of a small field for Kermadec is that he can go back and not be 8 lengths off them at the turn, only has to be 4 lengths off them.

 

[rideclutch]

They plan on going forward with Criterion, potentially leading or at worst first 4, I think the quality of horse will ensure there is enough tempo for every horse to get their chance.

The advantage of a small field for Kermadec is that he can go back and not be 8 lengths off them at the turn, only has to be 4 lengths off them.

I see, had Criterion going back on my map. That changes everything.

 

[Main Man]

I see, had Criterion going back on my map. That changes everything.

To be honest it is a pretty tough race.

I have only backed Criterion based on the early price, I couldn't him at $6.50 as there are obvious knocks, first up 2000M off travel, Michael Walker not a genuine G1 jockey. He will need to be near his best to win.

I do like Kermadec but I think he is tight enough in the market, I want them to take him on to an extent as he will be back and the track might be playing to on pacers.

You know what you are going to get with Fawkner and Pornichet has been competitive with Kermadec and will also be ahead of him in the run.

If Contirbuter got back to somewhere near his best he can win the race and will likely get a better race shape tomorrow.

 

[rideclutch]

To be honest it is a pretty tough race.

Yeah it's doing my head in a bit. I got 10's for Criterion but outside that I'm not interested at the current prices.

I thought the barrier was no help to Contributer, he might end up 3 back the rail and have to duck back to the inside or something.