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All true and applies to all drafting... not just FS.. All you can do is pay what you think they are worth at the time. Some clubs will err on taking the kid o, other not so much. Pies have taken FS in the past yet one would have to wonder why they went past Stewart. The live draft may make it really even more difficult to judge and commit to a kid pre draft.... and the List Manager will be even more important role.Some big kids monster the game in their teens but can get overtaken by later-developing kids. How many times do we hear that a big kid takes longer to develop? Hawkins could easily have turned out to be a good-ordinary player at 24, and we are fortunate that he has turned out to be the star that we know he can be.
Sometimes it's just the luck of the draw. And that's not taking into account things like injury, fitting in at the club, kids making bad choices (eg like the two Pies boys recently), etc.