AKA the 'Potential Spanner in the Works' match. Must watch football for any true Aussie Rules fan imo. I'll explain why in a moment.
North
FB S.McMahon L.Delaney M.Firrito
HB S.Atley S.Thompson S.Wright
C R.Bastinac B.Cunnington S.Gibson
F T.Goldstein J.Ziebell A.Swallow
HF L.Anthony R.Tarrant L.Thomas
FF B.Harvey D.Petrie L.Hansen
I M.Campbell C.Garlett K.Harper J.MacMillan
Freo
FB A.McPhee L.McPharlin Z.Dawson
HB C.Pearce M.Johnson P.Duffield
C M.Barlow R.Crowley T.Mzung
F A.Sandilands M.De Boer N.Fyfe
HF S.Hill K.Bradley D.Mundy
FF H.Ballantyne M.Pavlich C.Mayne
I G.Ibbotson L.Spurr N.Suban M.Walter
Bookies are paying around $4.10 for a Freo win today. Massive, massive overs. I try not to bet against North so won't take these juicy odds today but if I were a neutral, I'd be all over it. Since North are the clear favourites, I'll explain the factors to consider which lead me to think Freo are a genuine 50-50 today:
Ross Lyon: Knows how to play the Docklands. This season under his tenure, the Dockers have played there twice for two wins. Sure, the opposition was a medicore Saints and a woeful Melbourne, but you can only beat who you are up against. Apart from Collingwood last week, who has North beaten there this season? Run-of-the-mill clubs and Adelaide, who as we all now know, aren't actually that good. The Docklands suit North better but it won't be the dominant advantage today many seem to think.
Contested footy: The Dockers are ranked 6th, North 12th. In tackles, the Dockers ranked 5th, North 10th. It was always going to take Lyon a while to get the Dockers playing his style of footy (and I for one thought it would take even longer than it has - I said 12 months) but already they have begun to gel as a contested football outfit. One of North's best inside players this season in Leigh Adams won't be out there today, further strengthening Freo's advantage. Although North is statistically the better clearance side, a game played on Freo's terms will see the Roos struggle to break even in this vital KPI.
Hot and Cold Kangas: A relatively young outfit, North have struggled to win when outright favourites. It is entirely psychological. Smash Geelong, toast of the town, get pumped by Sydney in the first thirty minutes the next week. Unbackable against the Dogs, play shizen. Against the woeful Port, throw in the towel while still up with twenty minutes to play. Without Wells out there, the only real veteran-type experience (150+ games) on-field is Petrie and Harvey (I love Firrito but he can be a brain-snapper). Another twelve months and the Roos will have the mental toughness but do they today?
Age/Experience: On average, the lineups are 24.3 years, 85 matches vs 25.7 years, 103 matches. This is one stat I really think isn't given enough attention in AFL footy and today, Freo have it all over North. One day I will sit down and do a comprehensive analysis of the correlation between age/exp diff and match outcome but for now you will have to trust me that the correlation is considerable.
Matchups: Have a look at the matchups on paper. They are incredibly even in this spectator's opinion. Tell me I'm wrong.
If Scott can keep the match open and get his boys to dominate uncontested possession from half back to the forward line, his boys will be hard to beat - especially if the Triple Threat are on song. Lyon however is a master strategist and will come with a few tricks up his sleeve to stop this from happening - through the middle with well-drilled space-blocking, and in defense with McPharlin/Johnson/Dawson (who are all underrated in this oberver's opinion) to quell the big men. It will be a fascinating battle to see which gameplan can gain the ascendancy early and how the coaches will respond if/when things don't go their way. We have seen this season that Scott's Plan B is on the '2013 Preseason To Do List' and Lyon was accused of having no backup plan himself by some Saints fans. Fairdinkum's tip: Draw. Yep, I've called it.
If Freo manage to get the upset, however, it will throw a gigantic spanner in the works as far as finals permutations are concerned. Given how many people have apparently decided this game is as good as over already, bigfooty could go into meltdown. Hope it doesn't happen (obviously) but if I were a neutral football fan I'd be licking my lips at the prospect.
North
FB S.McMahon L.Delaney M.Firrito
HB S.Atley S.Thompson S.Wright
C R.Bastinac B.Cunnington S.Gibson
F T.Goldstein J.Ziebell A.Swallow
HF L.Anthony R.Tarrant L.Thomas
FF B.Harvey D.Petrie L.Hansen
I M.Campbell C.Garlett K.Harper J.MacMillan
Freo
FB A.McPhee L.McPharlin Z.Dawson
HB C.Pearce M.Johnson P.Duffield
C M.Barlow R.Crowley T.Mzung
F A.Sandilands M.De Boer N.Fyfe
HF S.Hill K.Bradley D.Mundy
FF H.Ballantyne M.Pavlich C.Mayne
I G.Ibbotson L.Spurr N.Suban M.Walter
Bookies are paying around $4.10 for a Freo win today. Massive, massive overs. I try not to bet against North so won't take these juicy odds today but if I were a neutral, I'd be all over it. Since North are the clear favourites, I'll explain the factors to consider which lead me to think Freo are a genuine 50-50 today:
Ross Lyon: Knows how to play the Docklands. This season under his tenure, the Dockers have played there twice for two wins. Sure, the opposition was a medicore Saints and a woeful Melbourne, but you can only beat who you are up against. Apart from Collingwood last week, who has North beaten there this season? Run-of-the-mill clubs and Adelaide, who as we all now know, aren't actually that good. The Docklands suit North better but it won't be the dominant advantage today many seem to think.
Contested footy: The Dockers are ranked 6th, North 12th. In tackles, the Dockers ranked 5th, North 10th. It was always going to take Lyon a while to get the Dockers playing his style of footy (and I for one thought it would take even longer than it has - I said 12 months) but already they have begun to gel as a contested football outfit. One of North's best inside players this season in Leigh Adams won't be out there today, further strengthening Freo's advantage. Although North is statistically the better clearance side, a game played on Freo's terms will see the Roos struggle to break even in this vital KPI.
Hot and Cold Kangas: A relatively young outfit, North have struggled to win when outright favourites. It is entirely psychological. Smash Geelong, toast of the town, get pumped by Sydney in the first thirty minutes the next week. Unbackable against the Dogs, play shizen. Against the woeful Port, throw in the towel while still up with twenty minutes to play. Without Wells out there, the only real veteran-type experience (150+ games) on-field is Petrie and Harvey (I love Firrito but he can be a brain-snapper). Another twelve months and the Roos will have the mental toughness but do they today?
Age/Experience: On average, the lineups are 24.3 years, 85 matches vs 25.7 years, 103 matches. This is one stat I really think isn't given enough attention in AFL footy and today, Freo have it all over North. One day I will sit down and do a comprehensive analysis of the correlation between age/exp diff and match outcome but for now you will have to trust me that the correlation is considerable.
Matchups: Have a look at the matchups on paper. They are incredibly even in this spectator's opinion. Tell me I'm wrong.
If Scott can keep the match open and get his boys to dominate uncontested possession from half back to the forward line, his boys will be hard to beat - especially if the Triple Threat are on song. Lyon however is a master strategist and will come with a few tricks up his sleeve to stop this from happening - through the middle with well-drilled space-blocking, and in defense with McPharlin/Johnson/Dawson (who are all underrated in this oberver's opinion) to quell the big men. It will be a fascinating battle to see which gameplan can gain the ascendancy early and how the coaches will respond if/when things don't go their way. We have seen this season that Scott's Plan B is on the '2013 Preseason To Do List' and Lyon was accused of having no backup plan himself by some Saints fans. Fairdinkum's tip: Draw. Yep, I've called it.
If Freo manage to get the upset, however, it will throw a gigantic spanner in the works as far as finals permutations are concerned. Given how many people have apparently decided this game is as good as over already, bigfooty could go into meltdown. Hope it doesn't happen (obviously) but if I were a neutral football fan I'd be licking my lips at the prospect.
