Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines

[Richo83]

In other words, final siren understands the limitations of his model and doesn't assume that he's some sort of precog genius. Final siren has said:

Note that I'm not saying you can't criticize the squiggle! Not at all! There are plenty of perfectly valid criticisms of the squiggle; it's an extremely simple model. Its predictor is particularly crude.

Roby no-one is saying that you can't criticise final siren's model, but a) it's not as if final siren isn't aware of some of the limitations, b) you need to be aware of your own and c) some of the criticisms, such as your potting of it predicting Essendon would win, or it's prediction that Sydney would win have been fairly weak. I mean you didn't predict Fremantle would make the 2013 grand final.

 

[Richo83]

Final Siren has never said that The Squiggle was meant to be the most accurate tipster or model.

This, it's a tool which sorts through all the data and tells us information like that sometimes, offense is more important than defense to win flags. and that at the rate Fremantle and Sydney are heading, they run risk of not being able to score enough goals to make the grand final, given that if you're struggling to kick goals in the home and away season, you'll really struggle in the finals. It's like an infographic which tells you a select piece of information, it's not supposed to tell you everything. But it's informative enough to do it's job, to show us the race for the flag in visual form.

 

[Richo83]

LOL. Got some more ironing to do chunky?

Chunky got personal when everyone ganged up on him in roby's thread and it became a real Galileo versus the church moment. Give chunky a few weeks to gloat, it is deserved.

 

[The Swans Blog]

Final Siren has never said that The Squiggle was meant to be the most accurate tipster or model.

He has said "The predictive model is solid and unspectacular: it's roughly as accurate as tipping the favourite every game. (Which is hard to beat!) Over a season, a well-informed, intelligent human observer should be able to beat it... but not by much."

But he has said it has benefits of:
- requiring only two inputs
- being easy to understand
- giving a better indication of form than the ladder

Indeed! We discussed the prospect of integrating players into the model as a tertiary, lower weighted data, that could yield more accurate results for teams with injuries, omissions and suspensions. Case in point was the Swans against Port; most models had the Swans by at least 5 goals, but any reasonable punter would have had them 1-2 goals.

Chunky got personal when everyone ganged up on him in roby's thread and it became a real Galileo versus the church moment. Give chunky a few weeks to gloat, it is deserved.

Never took it personal Might have taken offense to some of it, but never took it personally. Besides, what sort of person would I be if I lived and breathed off of BeefFooty?

 

[cryptor]

Please.

First of all the comment you replied to was not directed at Final Siren but the numerous legions of people who think it's some of sort of demi-god almost perfect system when it's actually far from that.

Secondly it appears that criticism is now off limits.

Stop pretending it's not about tipping or forecast when most of the discussion in regards to the squiggle is regarding tipping and forecasting.

Even in Final Sirens last post he mentions its designed for tipping. The thread is called "a race" there fore it's just about the "final result"/"final siren" as is it about progress of teams.

Even mentioning that it was not initially for forecasting makes it even worse.

If I bought a Lambroghini and the next day a Hyundai beat me around the race track do I say "Hey, whatver dude, my manafacturer was orginally designed to make trucks and was never designed for racetracks!"

Saying it's not immune from criticism but then saying it is immune from criticisms in things it's not designed to be is virtually giving it a free hit to get things right and completely ignoring any misgivings.

BYy the way it's not about betting but someone here seems to think for doing so.



p.s. below was part of my first post that was posted four years ago.

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/2011-afl-power-rankings-rd3.812821/



By the way I though this was an open forum for discussion, what is the issue?

I know who it was directed at. I was explaining why people were having a go at you. Because you were having a go at Final Siren/The Squiggle for something that it's not.

It doesn't matter what other people think it's for. If other people want to jump on here and discuss how they think it holds up as a betting aid then that's up to them. You're also free to discuss that. But be prepared for backlash when you do it with a smug sense of self satisfaction and an air of superiority.

 

[Richo83]

Stop pretending it's not about tipping or forecast when most of the discussion in regards to the squiggle is regarding tipping and forecasting.

Even in Final Sirens last post he mentions its designed for tipping. The thread is called "a race" there fore it's just about the "final result"/"final siren" as is it about progress of teams.

What do you mean by forecasting? Predicting the grand finalists? Then yes, it's designed for that and does a reasonable job.

In terms of tipping, has final siren ever boasted about the effectiveness of the squiggle in tipping? Not really. I suspect (maybe he said it somewhere) that as I said before, tipping, ranking teams and predicting grand finalists require different skills. Tipping sometimes requires a micro focus, ranking teams and predicting grand finalists requires a macro focus.

 

[Richo83]

Never took it personal Might have taken offense to some of it, but never took it personally. Besides, what sort of person would I be if I lived and breathed off of BeefFooty?

Eh, just saw you take a few hits on roby's thread and you gave as much as you got. Could have read it wrong.

 

[Roby]

I know who it was directed at. I was explaining why people were having a go at you. Because you were having a go at Final Siren/The Squiggle for something that it's not.

It doesn't matter what other people think it's for. If other people want to jump on here and discuss how they think it holds up as a betting aid then that's up to them. You're also free to discuss that. But be prepared for backlash when you do it with a smug sense of self satisfaction and an air of superiority.

You haven't answered any of my points.

What do you mean by forecasting? Predicting the grand finalists? Then yes, it's designed for that and does a reasonable job.

In terms of tipping, has final siren ever boasted about the effectiveness of the squiggle in tipping? Not really. I suspect (maybe he said it somewhere) that as I said before, tipping, ranking teams and predicting grand finalists require different skills. Tipping sometimes requires a micro focus, ranking teams and predicting grand finalists requires a macro focus.

Yes he has and I have already mentioned this in a post I replied to you earlier.

 

[Lensen]

Chunky got personal when everyone ganged up on him in roby's thread and it became a real Galileo versus the church moment. Give chunky a few weeks to gloat, it is deserved.

ridiculous claims (i.e. 12% interest at bendigo bank lel) and 5000 posts a week about it were the only reason he got "ganged up" on, not because people were necessarily defending roby over him

 

[Richo83]

Yes he has and I have already mentioned this in a post I replied to you earlier.

Please point it to me, please point to me the moment where he said: "this system is designed to win as many tips as possible". There's a difference between being pleased at how well a model is doing at tipping and specifically designing a model for tipping.

What it actually says is:

The predictive model is solid and unspectacular: it's roughly as accurate as tipping the favourite every game. (Which is hard to beat!) Over a season, a well-informed, intelligent human observer should be able to beat it... but not by much.

 

[Richo83]

ridiculous claims (i.e. 12% interest at bendigo bank lel) and 5000 posts a week about it were the only reason he got "ganged up" on, not because people were necessarily defending roby over him

That's false, I have a memory, chunky was copping heat before the bank thing happened.

 

[The Swans Blog]

That's false, I have a memory, chunky was copping heat before the bank thing happened.

Yeah I was and it was directly related to me hanging s**t on Roby hanging his head on his betting scheme website.

 

[Lensen]

That's false, I have a memory, chunky was copping heat before the bank thing happened.

sorry, clumsy wording on my behalf, meant 5000 posts about the power rankings, not the bank thing. he was ganged up on for being ******* annoying

 

[Roby]

Please point it to me, please point to me the moment where he said: "this system is designed to win as many tips as possible". There's a difference between being pleased at how well a model is doing at tipping and specifically designing a model for tipping.

What it actually says is:

The predictive model is solid and unspectacular: it's roughly as accurate as tipping the favourite every game. (Which is hard to beat!) Over a season, a well-informed, intelligent human observer should be able to beat it... but not by much.

Alright so will just leave it at that: it's not that great at tipping and frothing over predicted margins and forecasting is just dribble.

Anyway why do I need a visualization when I already know that 41% of teams that finish the home and away with the best attack win the premiership. Even better 55% of teams that finish on top of the ladder end up winning the premiership. In fact in the last 118 years finishing in the top 2 on the ladder has yielded 84% of premiers. Another little fact is that the premiers will come out of the top two in percentage 78% of the time. Easy.

 

[Macca81]

Where's the new squiggle? ?

 

[Richo83]

Alright so will just leave it at that: it's not that great at tipping and frothing over predicted margins and forecasting is just dribble.

It's grand final forecasting is pretty decent, let me remind you again that you didn't tip Fremantle for the 2013 grand final. So potting him for mistakes when you make some yourself is hypocritical.

Anyway why do I need a visualization when I already know that 41% of teams that finish the home and away with the best attack win the premiership. Even better 55% of teams that finish on top of the ladder end up winning the premiership. In fact in the last 118 years finishing in the top 2 on the ladder has yielded 84% of premiers. Another little fact is that the premiers will come out of the top two in percentage 78% of the time. Easy.

Because there's more than one person that visits this site and that not everything is about you? Take a leaf out of Galileo's book and realise that the earth revolves around the sun, not a particular power rankings guru. And if it's so easy to make a thread such as this which is clearly enjoyed by many posters, why didn't you make a thread illustrating who had the fight offense/defense balance to win the flag like final siren did? If this thread wasn't informative to many, people wouldn't visit this thread so much.

I came to this thread assuming that defense wins flags, it does, but final siren showed how important offense is too. You knew this already? Good for you, you're smarter than me, but I didn't and this is why I liked this thread. As SJ said this thread is a little more informative than looking at the ladder or looking at scores for or against or percentage, it's that little extra information in a league which is actually bereft of informative analysis, both of teams and players. Guys like Bill Barnwell have built their entire careers writing articles which provide a slightly more informed knowledge of sports than what exists at the time, you don't have to tell us the meaning of life to be informative.

You made a thread about how the suns are the best side in the league and kept it going until your bean bag broke. I like you roby, I've always been as polite as humanly possible to you, and I've given you more time than most would and I'm still wiling to listen to your rankings because I see some merit in them, but you're really testing my patience.

 

[cryptor]

You haven't answered any of my points.

Fine. I'll try again for you.

Spoiler

First of all the comment you replied to was not directed at Final Siren but the numerous legions of people who think it's some of sort of demi-god almost perfect system when it's actually far from that.

Already answered this...

I know who it was directed at. I was explaining why people were having a go at you. Because you were having a go at Final Siren/The Squiggle for something that it's not.

Secondly it appears that criticism is now off limits.

And this...

You're also free to discuss that. But be prepared for backlash when you do it with a smug sense of self satisfaction and an air of superiority.

Stop pretending it's not about tipping or forecast when most of the discussion in regards to the squiggle is regarding tipping and forecasting.

It doesn't matter what other people think it's for. If other people want to jump on here and discuss how they think it holds up as a betting aid then that's up to them.

Even in Final Sirens last post he mentions its designed for tipping. The thread is called "a race" there fore it's just about the "final result"/"final siren" as is it about progress of teams.

No, he mentions it's calibrated to tip winners. He also mentions in numerous past posts that it only takes game scores into account and therefore you need to take things like injuries, etc into account yourself. He also explicitly states that it's not for betting yet you still continue to pot him and the Squiggle on that.

Even mentioning that it was not initially for forecasting makes it even worse.

How so? Things evolve and change all the time.

If I bought a Lambroghini and the next day a Hyundai beat me around the race track do I say "Hey, whatver dude, my manafacturer was orginally designed to make trucks and was never designed for racetracks!"

Wow... Absolutely horrendous analogy.

Saying it's not immune from criticism but then saying it is immune from criticisms in things it's not designed to be is virtually giving it a free hit to get things right and completely ignoring any misgivings.

OK, let me rephrase then: It's not immune from criticism, but anyone who should criticize it for irrelevant reasons (ie. its usefulness as a betting aid) deserves to be met with a critical reception themselves.

BYy the way it's not about betting but someone here seems to think for doing so.

It doesn't matter what other people think it's for. If other people want to jump on here and discuss how they think it holds up as a betting aid then that's up to them.

By the way I though this was an open forum for discussion, what is the issue?

You're also free to discuss that. But be prepared for backlash when you do it with a smug sense of self satisfaction and an air of superiority.

edit: added spoiler tag so this doesn't clog the page...

 

[B4Bear]

Alright so will just leave it at that: it's not that great at tipping and frothing over predicted margins and forecasting is just dribble.

Anyway why do I need a visualization when I already know that 41% of teams that finish the home and away with the best attack win the premiership. Even better 55% of teams that finish on top of the ladder end up winning the premiership. In fact in the last 118 years finishing in the top 2 on the ladder has yielded 84% of premiers. Another little fact is that the premiers will come out of the top two in percentage 78% of the time. Easy.

Good to see you are not on suicide watch Roby.

 

[Final Siren]

Final Siren has been a dick for the last couple of years

Roby, I'm honestly embarrassed and really sorry I made you feel that way. I only ever thought we were having a bit of banter in the spirit of your thread. I never intended anything as mean-spirited and I apologize for anything you took that way. I'll PM you.

This is one reason I don't like betting... it makes everything serious. Footy's supposed to be fun. I have no interest in get-rich-quick machines. I'm here to learn more about footy.

 

[DrEvil_]

FFS can we just give Roby his thread back so that we can have the squiggle discussions back?

 

[Richo83]

sorry, clumsy wording on my behalf, meant 5000 posts about the power rankings, not the bank thing. he was ganged up on for being ******* annoying

Chunky provided criticism of the rankings, he got this said to him:

1. No-one cares about your criticisms
2. If you're so clever make your own
3. He's doing well show how well you're doing

Which is like fanboys yelling at a movie critic and saying: "If you think our movie is so bad, make your own one". It's a terrible criticism and misses the point of criticism.

Then we got into the banking stuff which I don't care about. Chunky asked roby to be more clear in his rankings, give tips, give margins, provide total amount of beans etc. all reasonable requests. He also asked on what basis were the rankings formed, which is what final siren has wondered as well. Now no-one's giving chunky heat.

 

[B4Bear]

Chunky provided criticism of the rankings, he got this said to him:

1. No-one cares about your criticisms
2. If you're so clever make your own
3. He's doing well show how well you're doing

Which is like fanboys yelling at a movie critic and saying: "If you think our movie is so bad, make your own one". It's a terrible criticism and misses the point of criticism.

Then we got into the banking stuff which I don't care about. Chunky asked roby to be more clear in his rankings, give tips, give margins, provide total amount of beans etc. all reasonable requests. He also asked on what basis were the rankings formed, which is what final siren has wondered as well. Now no-one's giving chunky heat.

Chunky also behaved like a spoilt bully, and refused to listen to what Roby had to say at times.

Demise of Roby equated with the rise of Chunky.

 

[Roby]

It's grand final forecasting is pretty decent, let me remind you again that you didn't tip Fremantle for the 2013 grand final. So potting him for mistakes when you make some yourself is hypocritical.

How's your memory? You even posted on the same week this was posted I think.

Fremantle vs Hawthorn now appears as the most likely Grand Final. Despite the highly intelligent Doppledanger illustrating that the model is no longer function, the rankings are still gong to put $1 on Hawks-Freo GF quinella with Sportsbet who are offering best odds at $9 still.

Fremantle went to the top of the Power Rankings in round 12 and it was the FIRST power rankings in Australia to have Fremantle on top.

Because there's more than one person that visits this site and that not everything is about you? Take a leaf out of Galileo's book and realise that the earth revolves around the sun, not a particular power rankings guru. And if it's so easy to make a thread such as this which is clearly enjoyed by many posters, why didn't you make a thread illustrating who had the fight offense/defense balance to win the flag like final siren did? If this thread wasn't informative to many, people wouldn't visit this thread so much.

I came to this thread assuming that defense wins flags, it does, but final siren showed how important offense is too. You knew this already? Good for you, you're smarter than me, but I didn't and this is why I liked this thread. As SJ said this thread is a little more informative than looking at the ladder or looking at scores for or against or percentage, it's that little extra information in a league which is actually bereft of informative analysis, both of teams and players. Guys like Bill Barnwell have built their entire careers writing articles which provide a slightly more informed knowledge of sports than what exists at the time, you don't have to tell us the meaning of life to be informative.

You made a thread about how the suns are the best side in the league and kept it going until your bean bag broke. I like you roby, I've always been as polite as humanly possible to you, and I've given you more time than most would and I'm still wiling to listen to your rankings because I see some merit in them, but you're really testing my patience.

My model was perfect in tipping this week, eight from eight. I'm not going broke.

I prefer comments like

Oh well. Even if we lose I'll still have something to smile about I guess. Roby I want to say I've booked a european holiday in July on the back of the power ranking profits I've accrued over the stretch. You are an inspiration to many

knowing I've helped people financially. You have nothing nice to say it's probably best you say nothing at all.

I've been personally attacked and even had family members targeted just because I was posted I was posting rankings. I understand how people like Mark Robinson must feel but it's just part and parcel of just been in the spotlight. I haven't always handled it the best but you have to understand how trying it can be even for someone like me that doesn't get bothered by much. I

also used to write articles for the website so my contribution was than just posting on the forum. I've never been paid for it and I have done it out of my own free time and instead I am met with the usual comments. Most of the people that know me in my real life wonder I bother with the forum given the backlash given. I guess it really doesn't bother me, what bothers me is that most of you don't understand.

And in the end even now I come with serious questions an instead met with more vitriol and insincerity.

 

[Richo83]

Chunky also behaved like a spoilt bully, and refused to listen to what Roby had to say at times.

Demise of Roby equated with the rise of Chunky.

s**t got real a few times, I just felt like because it was roby's thread, most people ganged up on chunky and weren't willing to listen to criticism. Chunky tried to organise a thread which would rank the power rankings system, chunky would ask for data from roby and people were like: "piss off, no-one cares about your stupid thread".

I feel like the moderate swinging voter here, I see merit in all three posters. I just thought that chunky got more flak than he deserved. Happy for others to disagree though.

 

[The Swans Blog]

Chunky also behaved like a spoilt bully, and refused to listen to what Roby had to say at times.

Demise of Roby equated with the rise of Chunky.

I listened to what he said, every time. Sometimes it was hard to read it without looking like I was sucking on a sour lemon. He contradicted himself, all the time, more than any other user I've seen. Often a lot of what he wrote really made no sense and was ridiculously over-the-top arrogant. Certainly not a case of tall poppy, but he certainly had an ego the size of a hot air balloon and sooner rather than later it was going to be popped.

I just made sure I stuck the knife in when he came up with his absurd business idea.

edit: It's disappointing to see a genuine discussion so successfully derailed by a single user. I do encourage users to try to ignore him and bring it back on topic. At least the mod teams is aware of the issues.