Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines
- Thread starter Final Siren
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cryptor
Brownlow Medallist
- May 11, 2008
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Looked back through about 40 years of Squiggles today to look at how teams who get into that top right area past the premiership zone of the last 20 years do and there's just not that many teams who even get out that far to draw a conclusion. 1988 the only one that really stood out.
- May 4, 2013
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I don't know if it is a bug but I moved Hawthorn's icon to Geelong 2011 position, hit recalculate and now it is predicting this.
2015 AFL GRAND FINAL
West Coast 51 - 69 Hawthorn
M.C.G. (VIC)
2015 AFL GRAND FINAL
M.C.G. (VIC)
- May 4, 2013
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I swear Hawthorn were predicted to score 145 in the predictor? How is it down 119 when Hawthorns rise in attack was basically the same as West Coasts shift in defence?
If hawthorn played west coast from the current positions, theres only one AFL grand final where a team to the north east lost to a team to the south west of it
geelong 2008
The Falcon Strike
Hall of Famer
Think I stated early on in the season I'd eat my hat if Eagles finished top 6.
I'm currently looking for one of those tasty corn chip hats. I have the salsa already!
I'm currently looking for one of those tasty corn chip hats. I have the salsa already!
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Squiggle is love. Squiggle is life.
Dannnnnnnnnn
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- Aug 24, 2012
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Out of curiosity Final Siren do you view the Dogs as somewhat of an anomaly of the rankings system? And if so, why? We've often found ways to win against more fancied teams (particularly early in the season), yet have never really been rated inside the top 8-10 sides in the competition.
Apologies if it has already been addressed; I have followed much of the thread but don't remember too much about the Dogs.
Apologies if it has already been addressed; I have followed much of the thread but don't remember too much about the Dogs.
threenewpadlocks
Brownlow Medallist
Part of it is just winning narrowly against bad teams, as we have against St Kilda and Carlton recently.
The eye can sometimes adjust for that. For example against Carlton we started icing the game very, very early with a four goal lead (with more than half the last quarter left from memory) Carlton kicked two more goals to bring it back to a 2 goal margin game, but they were never, ever going to kick more than the two that they did because they simply didn't have the possession to do so as we were icing the game. We easily could have won by 6 or 7 goals that day had we decided not to ice it from 10 minutes out, but we also didn't want to risk losing it at all (like the 1st St Kilda game). The eye can adjust for that sort of thing, but the squiggle can't.
One other factor is that the squiggle doesn't look at results retrospectively. Our win in Round 1 against West Coast has turned out to be a very impressive win since West Coast is now one of the best teams in the comp - but the Squiggle only has 2014 to go in Round 1. The eye can now see that was a very impressive win as it's one of the Eagles' few losses this season, but the Squiggle just things we were good in beating 2014 Eagles.
Dannnnnnnnnn
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- Aug 24, 2012
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Fair points and I agree that this would probably account for much of it. FWIW I don't necessarily disagree with the Squiggle's rating - we've been up and down and probably don't genuinely deserve a high rating as yet. Just curious to see the contributing factors in the algorithm's 'mind' and FS' views on the disagreement between ladder position and Squiggle rating (including the Flagpole).
- May 4, 2013
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Last years data might be skewing it a bit maybe?
Dannnnnnnnnn
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- Aug 24, 2012
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Very real possibility - but you look at other teams and the previous year hasn't made as big of an impact. GC were pretty good until Ablett went down yet the Squiggle was quick to label them incompetent this year (for varied reasons, obviously). West Coast the same but in reverse. Geelong did well last year but quickly fell towards middle ground. Essendon another example. I suppose the jump/drop hasn't been quite as pronounced with these teams, though. It's interesting. Perhaps an indicator that the Squiggle may be a little slow to react in extreme cases?
On reflection the Flagpole rating makes sense, though. My understanding is that it rewards huge scores for and tiny scores against. We really haven't had results like these too regularly this year; we're just sorta finding a way to get across the line with a rather unremarkable scoreline. So while we're getting some pretty nice wins against good sides, we're not really doing much to excite the flagpole (there's a double entendre in there somewhere).
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- Sep 7, 2009
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The Falcon Strike
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- Aug 18, 2009
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Your guess is as good as mine! All I can really say at this point is that July champions have a habit of falling away at the end.
The Hawks have to be hot favourites, but we should keep an eye out for them falling off late while others peak.
Anyway, this is all just according to the new flagpole algorithm (which I'm still testing). In ladder terms, Geelong 2007 dominated the comp, being 2 games and 50% clear on top of the ladder after Round 17, and went on to win the flag without too much trouble. And they also led on the flagpole from Round 9 (jumping from 10th to 2nd after the Round 6 obliteration of Richmond!); it's just that they didn't have such a big lead in July as in the upset years (2012, 2011, 2008, 2006, 2001).
Hopefully this year bucks the trend.
To be honest I'd just be happy to make the Grand Final from here...the last Saturday in September / first Saturday October is nothing more than a raffle. Anything can happen
I am heartened by the fact that the 2012, 2011, 2008 and 2001 leaders all made the Grand Final!
- Aug 18, 2009
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Ah yes, that is a bug. I just fixed it, mostly. It was because the Grand Final tip no longer uses the normal squiggle algorithm... so when you dragged teams, it got confused. Thanks for letting me know!I don't know if it is a bug but I moved Hawthorn's icon to Geelong 2011 position, hit recalculate and now it is predicting this.
2015 AFL GRAND FINAL
West Coast 51 - 69 Hawthorn
M.C.G. (VIC)
- Aug 18, 2009
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jjsmitty8
Norm Smith Medallist
Just did the ladder predictor for a bit of fun, I've got a Grand Final replay and a WA Derby in the Preliminary Finals! Two massive games.
- Feb 9, 2011
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Or they just lifted to play the top 2 teams (I had the Swans top 2 before the Hawks game).
Perhaps but do you think a team has made the last 3 GF's (and saluted the last two times) would fall into the trap of timing their ascent incorrectly...particularly when up until 3 weeks ago they really haven't been in convincing form at all?
Biggest threat to Hawthorn is being stuck playing 2 finals in Perth with an aging squad
Iron
Norm Smith Medallist
- May 26, 2014
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I certainly don't doubt they could and quite possibly will win another one this year. I'm saying I don't think they will. So long as we're looking at hypotheticals, I'd point you to Brisbane in '04. Winning a bunch of finals doesn't mean you're infallible on the day. For what it's worth I think they'll get there again. Will they win it though? We'll see.
- Aug 18, 2009
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What about the idea that Hawthorn had to accelerate after finding themselves 4-4 in order to finish top 2 (and avoid those trips to Perth)? Someone suggested that in this thread a few weeks ago.
Brisbane 2004 is my point...although they were shafted by virtue of playing a Saturday Night MCG 'home' Preliminary Final which some may argue shafted them for the Grand Final.
That said the disparity in squiggle position between Brisbane Lions and Port Adelaide was much closer than what Hawthorn and West Coast is today...if Hawthorn make the Grand Final they'll also get a GF on their home deck against a team that doesn't play much at the MCG - whereas it was a virtual neutral venue for Port Adelaide and Brisbane.
If Hawthorn makes the Grand Final I reckon we will win, its a matter of actually getting to the Grand Final which is tricky
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