Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines
- Thread starter Final Siren
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- Mar 2, 2007
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That was one of the best games I've ever seen. Awesome unrelenting pressure from both teams from siren to siren.
Such a simplistic mindset when people say a game's quality depends on the amount of goals kicked.
- Oct 14, 2011
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Don't spoil yourself, there is such a thing as too much.
DardySingh360
Premiership Player
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68-68 was so boring huh?
Educate yourselves.
Educate yourselves.
- Feb 9, 2011
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Does that kid in your avatar really have a gun pointed at his own head? WFT?
Dirty Bird
Pokémon Master
Mr. Squiggle
Can you do an EPL or NFL one in this coming season?
Would be interesting to see this method applied to other sports.
Can you do an EPL or NFL one in this coming season?
Would be interesting to see this method applied to other sports.
- May 4, 2013
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Is it is possible to see who would win in a match if Hawthorn and Sydney were to play each other in a match at the times I circled?
- May 15, 2006
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Well he should have mentioned that, just because a team has been ultra consistent doesn't give them a divine right to play in a GF.
It's bloody hard work just to get there, as you would know.
- Aug 18, 2009
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Is it is possible to see who would win in a match if Hawthorn and Sydney were to play each other in a match at the times I circled?
The diagonal green line is roughly where you need to be to equal Sydney. So Sydney are ahead of the Hawks' peak.
But if we're talking about the Grand Final, they need to be ahead by enough to overcome the Hawks' home state advantage. This drags them back to the diagonal blue line. (Home state advantage is important!) So the squiggle thinks the Swans would lose a GF played against Hawthorn, be about on par with North Melbourne, and beat everyone else.
Grand Finals are special, though. The squiggle is a simple algorithm that works pretty well on average, but it doesn't consider the GF to be any more worthy than a regular home & away match. I will write a bit more about this as we get closer to the finals, but some of my other algorithms are better GF predictors than ISTATE-91:12.
Incidentally, while there are many years where all my top shelf algorithms tipped the Grand Final correctly, there's only one year (as far back as I've checked) where all of them got it wrong: Hawthorn 2008.
- May 15, 2006
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The diagonal green line is roughly where you need to be to equal Sydney. So Sydney are ahead of the Hawks' peak.
But if we're talking about the Grand Final, they need to be ahead by enough to overcome the Hawks' home state advantage. This drags them back to the diagonal blue line. (Home state advantage is important!) So the squiggle thinks the Swans would lose a GF played against Hawthorn, be about on par with North Melbourne, and beat everyone else.
Grand Finals are special, though. The squiggle is a simple algorithm that works pretty well on average, but it doesn't consider the GF to be any more worthy than a regular home & away match. I will write a bit more about this as we get closer to the finals, but some of my other algorithms are better GF predictors than ISTATE-91:12.
Incidentally, while there are many years where all my top shelf algorithms tipped the Grand Final correctly, there's only one year (as far back as I've checked) where all of them got it wrong: Hawthorn 2008.
FS do you post the tips generated by the squiggle, would love to see the results
The diagonal green line is roughly where you need to be to equal Sydney. So Sydney are ahead of the Hawks' peak.
But if we're talking about the Grand Final, they need to be ahead by enough to overcome the Hawks' home state advantage. This drags them back to the diagonal blue line. (Home state advantage is important!) So the squiggle thinks the Swans would lose a GF played against Hawthorn, be about on par with North Melbourne, and beat everyone else.
Grand Finals are special, though. The squiggle is a simple algorithm that works pretty well on average, but it doesn't consider the GF to be any more worthy than a regular home & away match. I will write a bit more about this as we get closer to the finals, but some of my other algorithms are better GF predictors than ISTATE-91:12.
Incidentally, while there are many years where all my top shelf algorithms tipped the Grand Final correctly, there's only one year (as far back as I've checked) where all of them got it wrong: Hawthorn 2008.
I guess you cant predict bizarre selection choices, over confidence in failing game plan and stewart dew going bonkers
Ps your estimation of the home ground advantage spatially is sobering. Take the same proportion below the kangaroos and its pretty much the entire field of teams, those not tanking out that is
- Apr 27, 2014
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I think Ross Lyon footy is bad for footy. I think the game has opened up slightly from last year because Hawthorn won and Freo didn't. All the top teams are good defensively but I think Freo is the most defense focused team and I hope that isn't the style that gets rewarded with a premiership.
I resent Ross for not adapting to the considerable talent he at his disposal. If he had moved on from his St Kilda style and went for goals a little more often I wouldn't be anti-Freo or anti-Ross.
Come back when you have multiple premierships and even more grandfinals and a decade plus of almost constant contention.Freo aren't consistent
But we have scored more points than 13 other teams, including the team you support. I know I would rather watch my team kick 100 and win by 50 than kick 80 and lose by 30.
strobe00
Norm Smith Medallist
- Nov 18, 2010
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I'm sure you'd have adored 2007 as a spectacle then. Lots of scoring in that one.
2005, 2006, 2009 and the first gf in 2010 were terrific games... despite being lower scoring arm wrestles.
He does. Open the squiggle up from the bottom of the op.
- Mar 2, 2007
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You know we're top 5 in the league for scoring right?
And that's despite our most talented forward and leading goal kicker from last year missing nearly the whole season so far.
- Aug 20, 2010
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Freo Score For: 1486 - ranked 5th
Carlton Score For: 1404 - ranked 8th
Yep - Freo confirmed to be completely defensive.
Having a great defense does not automatically mean they don't score.
Come back when you have an argument that holds up.
- Apr 4, 2013
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Amazing that the Bombers are getting in the region where they could beat the Swans and Freo at home. If they keep improving they could cause some damage come finals.
The diagonal green line is roughly where you need to be to equal Sydney. So Sydney are ahead of the Hawks' peak.
But if we're talking about the Grand Final, they need to be ahead by enough to overcome the Hawks' home state advantage. This drags them back to the diagonal blue line. (Home state advantage is important!) So the squiggle thinks the Swans would lose a GF played against Hawthorn, be about on par with North Melbourne, and beat everyone else.
Grand Finals are special, though. The squiggle is a simple algorithm that works pretty well on average, but it doesn't consider the GF to be any more worthy than a regular home & away match. I will write a bit more about this as we get closer to the finals, but some of my other algorithms are better GF predictors than ISTATE-91:12.
Incidentally, while there are many years where all my top shelf algorithms tipped the Grand Final correctly, there's only one year (as far back as I've checked) where all of them got it wrong: Hawthorn 2008.
- May 15, 2006
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That's a cool story turbo, do some research before showing clear bias.
That way you have a plausible argument and wont be left looking silly.
http://maxbarry.com/squiggle/2014.html#tips
Go to this link, and then click on tips link at the top of the screen. Updated mid week, from memory.
The predictor link is great.
- Apr 4, 2013
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The interesting about the squiggle at this stage is that by tips, North finish top four.
Obviously North have fewer gimme games (chance of winning > 0.9) than the Cats, while the Cats have a few 'losses' that they have a reasonable chance of winning.
Obviously North have fewer gimme games (chance of winning > 0.9) than the Cats, while the Cats have a few 'losses' that they have a reasonable chance of winning.
- Jun 30, 2011
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The squiggle is on exactly the same number of tips as me: 100. I put exactly 60 seconds into it each week and even missed a round and got all away sides. That puts it, and me, just inside the 7th percentile. Good but not great.
The squiggle is a great probablistic model, but it's just that.
That's a cool story turbo, do some research before showing clear bias.
That way you have a plausible argument and wont be left looking silly.
Lot of us admittedly don't see Freo much and remember the GF v Hawks which it must be said wasn't footballs finest hour
Im sure they will learn from that though
