cryptor
Brownlow Medallist
- May 11, 2008
- 23,534
- 58,954
- AFL Club
- Hawthorn
Go drink some paint. I'm obviously referring to the squiggle.
Certified Legendary Thread Race for the flag, in squiggly lines
- Thread starter Final Siren
- Start date
- Tagged users None
chiwigi
I’ll make tears from your Wines.
boohoo, you asked for a comparative position based on 2015 results only.
Only trying to help. Happy to drink paint, which brand do you recommend? How will this help me answer your question better?
- Aug 18, 2009
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- #4,003
That's significant, yes, because there's an assumed 12-pt home game advantage to the Lions. So the actual scores of 38-110 are treated as 32-116 in neutral territory. And 32 points is very low.
Also, the way the algorithm works, each point you restrict your opposition by is worth more than the point before. So keeping a side to 40 points is twice as good as keeping them to 80 points, and keeping them to 20 points is twice as good again, and keeping them to 10 points is twice as good as that. Every point counts when the scores are very low.
- Aug 18, 2009
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- #4,004
I had a look but it's almost identical to now. Some teams (all the ones you'd expect) would be a little worse if we ignore 2014: Hawthorn, Sydney, Freo, Port Adelaide, Essendon. Collingwood would be slightly better. But not enough to change anything.
- May 4, 2013
- 4,679
- 9,743
- AFL Club
- Hawthorn
If
I hear Tuabams Endure has a more robust, full taste than Dulux
Alberton
Team Captain
- Jun 20, 2006
- 420
- 123
- AFL Club
- Port Adelaide
The flagpole clearly indicates how confusing it is to be a Port supporter this year.
Each week I think, ok now we will start playing to our ability, and each week I get frustrated.
Roll the dice, anything could happen against the Saints this week.
Maybe the Port that's third on the flagpole will show up, maybe not.
Each week I think, ok now we will start playing to our ability, and each week I get frustrated.
Roll the dice, anything could happen against the Saints this week.
Maybe the Port that's third on the flagpole will show up, maybe not.
Like the look of this squiggle 
Got Carlton, Melbourne and St Kilda in the next three weeks too.
Got Carlton, Melbourne and St Kilda in the next three weeks too.
- Feb 9, 2011
- 5,996
- 6,487
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- North Melbourne
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- Boston CelticsRedSoxBruins
Just looked at the flagpole and yep Port's flag is standing firmer than a honeymooners di**.???? Is this taking into account their strong form late last year?? According to the Regular Season form for the year. North is sitting 5th. Stronger in Attack AND defence.
If it includes Ports strong 2014 (or any part of it) that makes sense and play on. It gives the Power supporters hope.
Great to see North less than a whole point from 3rd. Hopefully big wins against Carlton, St Kilda and Melbourne will see that improve. Then again I was looking forward to seeing the squiggle jump heading into the Suns game. So basically I'll be content to just win them.
- Sep 7, 2014
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- St Kilda
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Predictor has 2 more wins for the Saints, squinting but still can't see em'. Which games Final Siren ?
AFAIK, It's a quirk of sorts in the predictions where Saints aren't actually tipped to win, but they are to go close in a few games, which means there is a good chance of getting 2 wins.
You'll beat Freo though. bunny team.
- May 4, 2013
- 4,679
- 9,743
- AFL Club
- Hawthorn
I am actually relying on Fremantle to lose to St Kilda so top 2 is West Coast and Hawthorn aha
Joshen
Norm Smith Medallist
How is the Squiggle splitting Geelong and Adelaide on the finals predictor? Same win/loss, percentage and a draw head-to-head?
Infected by a virus called 'Roby' perhaps?
cats2rise
#63 - Mount Buller Demons
- Apr 10, 2005
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- Aug 18, 2009
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- #4,018
I'm still figuring out exactly why the flagpole algorithm seems to be good at what it does (picking premiers). It's only a little different to the regular squiggle but it plays out seasons quite differently.
The big difference I've noticed is it moves teams into better chart positions more easily but doesn't slide them back much. That is, it pays a lot of attention to great performances but almost ignores bad ones. There's very little penalty for putting a shocker vs a mediocre performance.
So the algorithm seems to be tracking a team's "upside," i.e. their potential best, rather than their average or typical performance like the normal squiggle does.
This effect also accelerates during the year, and by finals time some teams are on monstrous scores. Which means that performances against those teams then counts for even more!
In summary, from what I can tell so far, a good way to tip the premier is to:
- Rate unusually strong performances (including how many there are) but ignore bad games
- Rate strong performances against other strong teams
- Increasingly focus on late-season form
- Rate both strong attacking efforts and strong defensive efforts, even when they're not in tandem (e.g. a game where both teams score highly)
Port Adelaide: They started very high and haven't been properly overtaken yet. Since this algorithm doesn't let teams slide much, it's basically not writing off Port's potential to deliver 2014-like performances yet. But they may well be left behind soon by teams that perform well against Hawthorn and West Coast.
Also the algorithm has liked Port's high scoring in their last two games (116 vs Adelaide, 129 vs Essendon).
- Aug 18, 2009
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- #4,019
Not that the predictor has anywhere near this kind of accuracy, but it's putting Geelong on 103.64% and Adelaide on 103.60%. The numbers are just rounded off for display.
Dirty Bird
Pokémon Master
wow, im shocked at Adelaide being 3rd on the flagpole at that point.Oh right. After the 1998 QFs, during which Adelaide (13-9, 5th) got thumped by Melbourne (14-8, 4th), it looked like this:
Flagpole did pretty well in 1998, I think, having the Crows 1-3 almost the whole year and North 1-2 for the back half. For the GF, it tipped Adelaide 108-89 over North and they ended up winning 105-70.
Before that game, maybe, but after that loss, I'd expect in the 4th-6th range. Not 3rd!
- Banned
- #4,021
Hard to score when your opponent is attacking and an efficient user. Also, both teams score from the centre bounce which means each goal, puts either in a favourable position to mount a scoring chain.
May sound odd, but being a great centre bounce team in attack is hugely effective defence.
Had the best percentage at the end of the minor round by 6% over North. Bulldogs were the only other team within 10%.
And, as Final Siren mentioned above, the algorithm rewards good performances more than it punishes bad ones (like the Melbourne game)
- Aug 18, 2009
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- #4,023
Yeah, it's a good effort, considering 1998 is generally considered one of the less likely flags. It's because of this effect I described a couple of posts up, where the algorithm doesn't really penalize teams for bad losses. So when Melbourne defeated Adelaide in the QF, that boosted Melbourne but didn't do much harm to Adelaide.
This is the week before the QFs, after Round 22, 1998:
Then a week later is the flagpole I posted before (after QFs 1998):
- May 4, 2013
- 4,679
- 9,743
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- Hawthorn
Final Siren, do you think Hawthorn will buck the trend of the dominating team losing (2012, 2011, 2008)
Very interesting Bottom 5, who went on to dominate 10 of the next 16 years of flag success.
