The AFLTM 2015 Trade Period Review & Discussion Thread

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Danoz said:
#42 Rottnest Razorbacks trade Callum Sinclair (298/3), Scott Selwood (320/4), Jed Lamb (137/2), Hayden Crozier (146/1) and Daniel Nielsen (77/1) to Melbourne for Cam McCarthy (425/5), Colin Garland (233/1), Jon Giles (182/1), Jackson Merrett (335/3) and Alex Browne (113/2)

Let's face it, there's two guys here worth discussion. Sinclair is a really smart pick up for loopy_cam, and will be Sydney's number one ruck for the foreseeable future. McCarthy will be Fremantle's (and gym4life's) number one key forward in a few years, and will hold that spot for many years. He's a pick for the future, but will still be handy until he makes the move over.

Scooter has a chance to remake himself after moving to the cats, but to me is an also ran. Lamb could be anything, but so far has been nothing. Crozier has the chance in 2016 to step up, but is yet to show anything that says he will.

Garland is a solid key defender. Giles won't play a game in 2016. Merrett is the best of this lot, though is being paid a lot, and isn't as good as his brother.

A win-win trade here, for mine.
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I really needed a ruckman and I can see Sinclair doing fairly well for Sydney. The fact that I also got to offload some deadwood in Garland, Giles and Browne was a bonus. Selwood I wasn't super keen on but I can't see Geelong picking him up and then not playing him. Best case scenario he goes back to his previous fantasy ways and I do really well from this trade but I'd be happy with him being depth.
 
#43 Geelong trade Grant Birchall (400/4), Daniel Menzel (315/2), Billie Smedts (170/3), Jon Marsh (182/3), Jayden Hunt (121/1) and Pick 58 to Northern Reds for Cale Hooker (335/2), Jon Ceglar (182/2), Darcy Lang (268/5), James Rose (85/1), Declan Hamilton (73/1) and Pick 48
Lots of players involved in this trade. Geelong give the main piece in this trade to the Reds, with consistent backman Birchall moving north. At 27 years of age he should still have a few good years of production left. The Reds also manage to net the talented yet injury prone Daniel Menzel and Billie Smedts as well as the mostly untried Jon Marsh and Jayden Hunt. Menzel showed his enormous potential in his first game back from injury in 4 years and if he can stay injury free, could be a huge get for the Reds. Smedts has also shown a bit of ability in the limited chances he has had while we are yet to see hardly anything of young midfielder Hunt and athletic key position speedster Marsh, both players are a cheap gamble at this stage.

Geelong were clearly targeting Hooker in this trade while also seemingly shedding a little bit of salary. Geelong now have one of the better scoring key position players in the league and Hooker's flexibility to be either a forward or back adds further value. Jon Ceglar will slot in as a handy backup ruck for Geelong while Lang broke out as a player in 2015 and will offer Geelong some midfield depth at the very least. Declan Hamilton and James Rose are both pretty much unknowns at this point, although both were highly rated as juniors.

Geelong have picked up a ripper in Cale Hooker, but Northern Reds win this trade for me as we know that Birchall will be a consistently high scorer every game. This combined with the potential high scoring of Menzel slightly pushes them ahead in this trade, even if the Reds key position stocks have taken a solid hit by losing Hooker and Ceglar.
 
#44 Harbour City Hornets trade Aaron Hall (202/1), Jason Johanissen (180/1) and Pick 12 to Mozzie Bites for Richard Douglas (462/3), M Crouch (361/3), picks 28 and 64
So much of this trade comes down to just how sustainable Aaron Hall's stellar run in the last couple of months of the 2015 season is. With a depleted Suns side Aaron Hall received unprecedented midfield time and became an unexpected force by consistently scoring over 100. THe Bites also receive Jason Johannisen who is a vastly underrated defender who averaged over 75 in 20 games in 2015. Upgrading pick 28 to pick 12 also gives the Bites an early draft pick to select another young up and comer.

The Bites have given up a proven scorer in Douglas as part of this trade. The midfielder is underrated by many due to is non-flashy style of play, but week after week you can expect a solid score from the veteran. Matt Crouch is a player I myself was keen on. The younger brother of Brad was a prolific scorer as a juniour and with the departure of Dangerfield there is a real opportunity for Crouch to step up and cement his place in the Crows team.

As mentioned in the opening statement, this trade mostly revolves around Aaron Hall and his ability to continue the hot streak he had at the back end of 2015. Personally, I see the high scoring as a bit of a one off. Yes, I expect Hall to receive a bit more midfield time now he has proven his ability somewhat, but the end of the 2015 wasa bit of an outlier for the Suns with so many injuries decimating their squad. With the likes of Ablett, O'Meara, Swallow and Prestia all returning in 2016 and all likely to see significant midfield minutes I just can't see how Hall can receive the same amount of midfield time as he did at the end of 2015. As a result of this I expect Hall's output to decrease and this combined with the consistentsy of Douglas and the potential of Crouch is why I see the Hornets as the winners in this trade.
 

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Will be interesting to see if the Bombers get top up players again. Darley and Simpkin may earn me some points yet! I lose Hocking for the year (what a great pick up he was last year! :s $388k!) but surprisingly Courtenay Dempsey slides through, I expect he'll play a few more games than first thought.
 
#45 Northern Reds trade Jesse Lonergan (353/4) and pick 32 to St Kilda Titans for Dylan Buckley (120/1)
Two young players switch clubs in this deal. Neither player has fully entrenched themselves inside their teams best 22 but both have shown glimpses of talent and are likely to see further opportunities in 2016 and beyond. The numbers for both Lonergan and Buckley for 2015 are quite similar. Both played 18 games with an average score close to 60 and this average is likely to increase with further development. Where this trade differs quite a bit is the length and size of contract given to both players with Lonergan signed to a longer, more expensive contract while Buckley is on an almost minimum one year deal.

For me, I'd prefer Lonergan in this deal and as such believe that St Kilda have won this trade. Signing Lonergan to a 4 year deal is somewhat of a risk, but he was a highly rated juniour and I feel he has a much higher fantasy ceiling than Buckley. Obtaining pick 32 is also a bonus for the Titans as I feel a straight swap could probably have got the deal done.
 
#46 Northern Reds trade Michael Hibberd (583/3) to Adelaide Lions for pick 37
Since this trade was completed prior to CAS decision being handed down I'm going to judge the trade ignoring the one year ban Hibberd faces.

Michael Hibberd has been a consistent fantasy defender for several years now, consistently posting scores between 80-90. Picking him up for just pick 37 is a bit of a bargain for the Lions. His contract may be a little overpriced but I'd be willing to pay it knowing you are going to get close to 90 points a week from a defender. Pick 37 is no guarantee of being a good AFL player, let alone a good fantasy scorer. Even with the CAS decision I still like this trade for the Lions. Yes, they will be without Hibberd for a year, but he will be signed up for another 2 years after that. Pick 37 is unlikely to play too much in 2016 anyway.
 
#47 Gold Coast Devils trade Will Hoskin Elliot (300/5) and pick 36 to St Kilda Titans for Ty Vickery (270/2) and pick 57

As sausageroll said above, Vickery was the best back up ruck he could get his hands on. I feel for ya bro, really I do. But what strikes me as odd, is that both snag and ShaunDuggan came to the agreement that WHE is worth more than Vickery! 21 picks better, in fact!

WHE showed a little bit a few years ago, but went completely off the boil in 2015, only playing 11 mostly sub vest affected games. I half expected him to be delisted by the Giants, or at least traded. Time will tell if my impression of him is wrong, but IMO Vickery is a vastly better prospect (I know, right? Vickery!)

Tyrone is a bit of a hack, and is unbelievably coming into his 8th season in 2016. But he started showing that he might actually become a good player towards the end of 2015. Given he is a GST and can probably be played at ruck at a stretch, he's much more valuable than WHE. To me, snag wins this one in a canter.
 
#48 St Kilda Titans trade Jack Grimes (318/2), Tom Curren (194/2) and Pick 32 to Port Adelaide for Tom Bugg (233/2) and Jay Kennedy Harris (122/1)

Nobody expected ex-Melbourne captain Grimes to go so far backwards in 2015 as he did. It's another notch on the Demons' belt of failures. When he did play, he was average. But he still has some ability, and I can see where Russian is coming from in picking him up. Will Curren ever become a reliable player for the Saints? The jury is still out, but rumours are they're leaning towards a no majority.

Bugg burst onto the scene for the Giants a few years ago, and has since become a reliably low scoring small defender with little penchant for attack from defence. He does play most games though, and that at least is something. His low scoring and high probability of playing offsets Gimes' slightly higher scoring and low probablity of playing quite nicely. JKH is probably in a similar boat to Bugg in terms of more likely to play than Curren, but will never be a high scorer.

Pick 32 in my opinion is a little too high to balance this trade, something in the 40-50 range probably closer to the mark. However the trade still seems rather evenly balanced, perhaps a slight win to Russian over ShaunDuggan.
 

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Danoz said:
#47 Gold Coast Devils trade Will Hoskin Elliot (300/5) and pick 36 to St Kilda Titans for Ty Vickery (270/2) and pick 57

As sausageroll said above, Vickery was the best back up ruck he could get his hands on. I feel for ya bro, really I do. But what strikes me as odd, is that both snag and ShaunDuggan came to the agreement that WHE is worth more than Vickery! 21 picks better, in fact!

WHE showed a little bit a few years ago, but went completely off the boil in 2015, only playing 11 mostly sub vest affected games. I half expected him to be delisted by the Giants, or at least traded. Time will tell if my impression of him is wrong, but IMO Vickery is a vastly better prospect (I know, right? Vickery!)

Tyrone is a bit of a hack, and is unbelievably coming into his 8th season in 2016. But he started showing that he might actually become a good player towards the end of 2015. Given he is a GST and can probably be played at ruck at a stretch, he's much more valuable than WHE. To me, snag wins this one in a canter.
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Are you sure this trade suggests WHE is worth more than Vickery? ;)

I actually gave up pick 36 and got pick 57 in return. That's a pick downgrade to get Vickery.

As it turned out though, I got Matty Wright with pick 57 which is exactly what I would have done if I'd had pick 36 anyway. So the pick downgrade didn't cost me anything, meaning it was essentially a straight player swap from my point of view.
 
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#49 Melbourne trade Matt Shaw (180/3) to Western Vultures for pick 41

Essentially is a trade of Zac Clarke for Matt Shaw for sante. I've been thinking for years that Sandi's time is up and Clarke will get the numero uno ruck spot at the Dockers. Just doesn't happen. But he's a solid 18+ game ruck for the next few years. Shaw actually played one more game than Clarke in '15, but only the die-hards would've noticed. He's easy to miss, despite the terrible hair. A bit meh on both sides for me.

loopy_cam gets pick 41 which for mine is a bit too much, and so in my opinion he wins this side of the trade.
 
#50 Northern Reds trade Chris Masten (455/2) to Western Vultures for Tom Liberatore (865/5)

Masten played his most consistent season in '15. 22 games averaging 81 points, had a break for biting, and played in a grand final. Coming into his 9th season is expected to be a senior figure at the Eagles, and perform accordingly. Though he's unlikely to ever average much more than '15, he's solid for that 80 mark most games, and worth every cent of the $455k Bluesy paid for him.

Liberatore is on the brink of elite status, fantasy wise, due to his high tackle numbers (averages 24 tackle ppg over his career). His knee would've been a bitter pill to swallow for sante before last season, though it didn't stop him finishing 4th pre-finals. Sante also removes a large chunk of salary from his list to make plays elsewhere.

Well balanced trade that i'll say is win-win.
 
Danoz said:
#50 Northern Reds trade Chris Masten (455/2) to Western Vultures for Tom Liberatore (865/5)

Masten played his most consistent season in '15. 22 games averaging 81 points, had a break for biting, and played in a grand final. Coming into his 9th season is expected to be a senior figure at the Eagles, and perform accordingly. Though he's unlikely to ever average much more than '15, he's solid for that 80 mark most games, and worth every cent of the $455k Bluesy paid for him.

Liberatore is on the brink of elite status, fantasy wise, due to his high tackle numbers (averages 24 tackle ppg over his career). His knee would've been a bitter pill to swallow for sante before last season, though it didn't stop him finishing 4th pre-finals. Sante also removes a large chunk of salary from his list to make plays elsewhere.

Well balanced trade that i'll say is win-win.
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Wouldn't have done that if I knew I wouldn't have won Dixon in the bidding period
 
#52 Launceston trade Sam Jacobs (526/2) and pick 43 to Dragon Island Southerners for Todd Goldstein (638/2) and pick 59

After being clued into trading stars out with one year left on their contract to avoid nasty bidding wars by ShaunDuggan, I went about seeking a likely replacement for Goldstein in the form of Sam Jacobs. I approached Marklar_33 early in the trade period, only to be rejected. After I was so generous with providing Dane Swan on a silver platter, Marklar came back to the table on Goldstein and Jacobs. And let's face it, Marklar got the better end of the deal in terms of raw fantasy point scoring power. Both are top 5 league rucks, and top 3 fantasy rucks, though over the last three years Goldy has averaged more than 7ppg more than Sauce. That was the reason for the pick swap, and to be honest I think I let Marklar go a little easy with that one.

Fairly even trade where Marklar gets a better ruck and I get less salary and a better pick.
 
So, with a 2 year contract is Sam Jacobs is up for trade at the end of 2016? :D
 
Danoz said:
#52 Launceston trade Sam Jacobs (526/2) and pick 43 to Dragon Island Southerners for Todd Goldstein (638/2) and pick 59

After being clued into trading stars out with one year left on their contract to avoid nasty bidding wars by ShaunDuggan, I went about seeking a likely replacement for Goldstein in the form of Sam Jacobs. I approached Marklar_33 early in the trade period, only to be rejected. After I was so generous with providing Dane Swan on a silver platter, Marklar came back to the table on Goldstein and Jacobs. And let's face it, Marklar got the better end of the deal in terms of raw fantasy point scoring power. Both are top 5 league rucks, and top 3 fantasy rucks, though over the last three years Goldy has averaged more than 7ppg more than Sauce. That was the reason for the pick swap, and to be honest I think I let Marklar go a little easy with that one.

Fairly even trade where Marklar gets a better ruck and I get less salary and a better pick.
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Had to reject early to move some money around. Fairly sideways deal
 
#53 St Kilda Titans trade Matt Kruezer (472/3), Ben Stratton (152/1) and pick 72 to Port Adelaide for Zac Smith (285/2) and pick 8
Two 'first choice' ruckmen trade places in this deal with Kreuzer heading to Port Adelaide in return for Smith. It was only a few years ago that both of these ruckmen were considered the future gun ruckmen of the competition but after a few down years (mostly because of injury) there are now a lot more question marks over both players. Ben Stratton, the other piece in this trade offers a bit of a safety net for Port Adelaide with the backman a consistent, albeit low scorer for his team.

After Zac Smith's trade to Geelong there is some uncertainty about his place in the team, however he is likely to be the club's number 1 ruckman at least in the sort term which should see Smith increase his average. If injury holds off he could well be a very astute pickup by the Titans. Kreuzer's role is also slightly unclear with the Blues. Is he a key forward who pinch hits in the ruck or a ruck who pinch hits up forward? Port Adeliade will be hoping for the latter. Injuries of course will also play a big part in both players' value with neither player playing at least 20 games since Kreuzer managed the feat in 2012.

I rate Zac Smith and Kreuzer both fairly even so to me this trade comes down to whether I prefer Stratton or pick 8. In my opinion, I would take pick 8 every day of the week; yes Stratton will provide a consistent score every week but that score is unlikely to be much more than 60 whereas pick 8 has the potential to be a fantastic scorer for the Titans. Another factor in the Titans favour is the cheaper contract for Smith which makes that risk just a little bit smaller.
 
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