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Regardless of which, it appears the numbers will be very tight indeed.
ALP and Greens are most likely going to 100% oppose any co-payment proposal, so that sets the govt back 33-35 against.
They would need 6/8 crossbenchers to get it through. Wouldn't pass tomorrow, but with some negotiation it could happen.
www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-signals-compromise-on-7-copayment-as-crossbench-takes-treasurer-to-task-20140820-3e0zj.html
I suspect PUP *might* be willing to support a watered down version. But if not, it is a doomed policy, as those three would take it to at best a 38-38 split. At this stage that is still very shaky, but would be in line with other policy positions from the PUP, changing over the course of time.
If PUP supports it, then of the remaining 5 Senators:
Xenophon: opposes it. https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/23836684/senate-likely-to-reject-7-gp-fee/ and http://www.nickxenophon.com.au/blog/budget-is-mean-nasty-and-dumb
Day: would support it if reduced from $7: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...ed-gp-co-payment/story-e6frg90f-1227025968071
Leyonhjelm: happy with keeping it on pensioners, but wants to reduce the PBS payment. This would offset at least some of the savings that are possible. So he is a maybe for now: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-polit...-leyonhjelm-to-joe-hockey-20140804-3d2xx.html
Muir: currently undecided. Presumably he would vote in a similar way to the PUP Senators. http://www.news.com.au/national/bre...uel-tax-concerns/story-e6frfku9-1227024291621. But he won't be an easy vote: http://www.bendigoadvertiser.com.au/story/2498446/hot-rod-senators-speedy-visit/?cs=80
Madigan: is opposed to much of the Budget - haven't seen specific commentary on the co-payment. May trade his vote for removing other parts of the Budget. Or may vote against co-payment, in favour of supporting another measure. Touch and go.
So the most likely outcome to get it through it seems would be:
1. Keep talking to the AMA
2. Keep talking to the PUP - exclude pensioners, children, concession card holders, vaccination visits. Ensure that this would be enough to win the support of Muir as well.
3. Reduce the co-payment to around $5, and the PBS amount to around $35. This might get the support of both Day and Leyonhjelm.
ALP and Greens are most likely going to 100% oppose any co-payment proposal, so that sets the govt back 33-35 against.
They would need 6/8 crossbenchers to get it through. Wouldn't pass tomorrow, but with some negotiation it could happen.
www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-signals-compromise-on-7-copayment-as-crossbench-takes-treasurer-to-task-20140820-3e0zj.html
I suspect PUP *might* be willing to support a watered down version. But if not, it is a doomed policy, as those three would take it to at best a 38-38 split. At this stage that is still very shaky, but would be in line with other policy positions from the PUP, changing over the course of time.
If PUP supports it, then of the remaining 5 Senators:
Xenophon: opposes it. https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/23836684/senate-likely-to-reject-7-gp-fee/ and http://www.nickxenophon.com.au/blog/budget-is-mean-nasty-and-dumb
Day: would support it if reduced from $7: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...ed-gp-co-payment/story-e6frg90f-1227025968071
Leyonhjelm: happy with keeping it on pensioners, but wants to reduce the PBS payment. This would offset at least some of the savings that are possible. So he is a maybe for now: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-polit...-leyonhjelm-to-joe-hockey-20140804-3d2xx.html
Muir: currently undecided. Presumably he would vote in a similar way to the PUP Senators. http://www.news.com.au/national/bre...uel-tax-concerns/story-e6frfku9-1227024291621. But he won't be an easy vote: http://www.bendigoadvertiser.com.au/story/2498446/hot-rod-senators-speedy-visit/?cs=80
Madigan: is opposed to much of the Budget - haven't seen specific commentary on the co-payment. May trade his vote for removing other parts of the Budget. Or may vote against co-payment, in favour of supporting another measure. Touch and go.
So the most likely outcome to get it through it seems would be:
1. Keep talking to the AMA
2. Keep talking to the PUP - exclude pensioners, children, concession card holders, vaccination visits. Ensure that this would be enough to win the support of Muir as well.
3. Reduce the co-payment to around $5, and the PBS amount to around $35. This might get the support of both Day and Leyonhjelm.
