Strategy The Structure

[Masqualero]

I looked at the height profile of our list, compared it to those of the top five teams and came to the conclusion, IMO, that we are top heavy and, at some point we needed to address that.

Ok, so out of those 195+ players for the long term we can put a line through Phillips, Lobbe and Casboult?

That's 3 which would bring it into line with what you have seen with the top 5.

I think its the concentration of them in defence that could potentially be unbalanced as we can not play Weitering, Marchbank, Jones and Madcreadie whilst also playing Plowman in the backline at the same time.

But this I think will sort itself out with player departures in the next couple of seasons through retirement and if we trade Macreadie at some point.

 

[blue healer]

Ok, so out of those 195+ players for the long term we can put a line through Phillips, Lobbe and Casboult?

That's 3 which would bring it into line with what you have seen with the top 5.

I think its the concentration of them in defence that could potentially be unbalanced as we can not play Weitering, Marchbank, Jones and Madcreadie whilst also playing Plowman in the backline at the same time.

But this I think will sort itself out with player departures in the next couple of seasons through retirement and if we trade Macreadie at some point.

I think that Rowe will be retired this year.

Before Phillips season ending injury I actually thought he may be worth putting on the trade table, always someone looking for ruckmen but I think he'll be regarded as unsound and i don't know his contract status.

Lobbe I'm not sure of, good backup if we could offload Phillips.

Levi, I think contracted til next year and it's anybody's guess. I still think he's got some value. Next year.... who knows.

 

[Masqualero]

I think that Rowe will be retired this year.

Before Phillips season ending injury I actually thought he may be worth putting on the trade table, always someone looking for ruckmen but I think he'll be regarded as unsound and i don't know his contract status.

Lobbe I'm not sure of, good backup if we could offload Phillips.

Levi, I think contracted til next year and it's anybody's guess. I still think he's got some value. Next year.... who knows.

Macreadie, if he shows more in the 1st could net something decent IMO, he was highly rated as a junior and has some traits that suit the modern game well.

 

[harrisendblue]

As you said, Cripps is a mid. Macreadie is very mobile for a tall and can play a number of positions, namely wing

I think Rowe, Lobbe will come off the main list. I am starting to get the feeling that Levi might be moved on, will get back to you on that one

Really hope we can move Levi on and get something for him. Good trier but is not going to improve and hopefully TDK can be a better Levi.

Would dump Lobbe in heartbeat if we want ruck depth rookie a mature ager/young kid type.

On the basis that next year will hopefully be an improving year but not one in which make the 8, go into it with only Kruez and phillips as pure ruckman.

 

[Arr0w]

Really hope we can move Levi on and get something for him. Good trier but is not going to improve and hopefully TDK can be a better Levi.

Would dump Lobbe in heartbeat if we want ruck depth rookie a mature ager/young kid type.

On the basis that next year will hopefully be an improving year but not one in which make the 8, go into it with only Kruez and phillips as pure ruckman.

You would normally go into a season with 3 ruckmen and a forward that can play a roll. We went in with one extra, due to concerns with Phillips and MK's history

 

[CJMB]

Following is the list of players 195+cms:

Kreuzer, Cripps, McKay, TDK, Jones, Rowe, Weitering, McReadie, Lobbe, Phillips, Casboult.

Rowe aside, which of those players are going to retire this season and, more importantly, who will we delist?

I admit Cripps, as a mid, skews that number slightly but it is still 4 more than that of the Swans and Richmond.

To better balance our list I think we need to look to trade at least two and possibly three out of this height range.

You will note that this list does not include rookies.

I've done the list by role instead of height.

Ruck: Kreuzer, Lobbe, Phillips, TDK

FWD: Curnow, Casboult, McKay

DEF: Weitering, Marchbank, ASOS, Jones, Macreadie

On the field a traditional setup will have 5 "tall roles" 2 x DEF, 1 Ruck and 2 x FWD which is roughly a third of the 18 that will take the field.

Of 44 list spots these 12 make up roughly a third (little less) as well so I would argue that this 12 talls with 4/5 FWDs, 4/5 DEFs and 3 Rucks is an ideal balance if using the ratio of 5 in 18 on the field being talls.

Of course considerations have to be made is a number of them are injury prone which might explain why we have 4 rucks on the list at the moment but I think the balance is around the mark.

As noted Cripps plays as a mid

Kreuzer/ Phillips one of them is always on the injured list so need to keep. TDK develops in the 2s

I would keep from that list Jones FB , McKay FF. How tall Curnow / Marchbank as the other keys ?

Rowe will go , Lobbe is just 2nds depth , McReadie not sure & unfortunately Weitering has been disappointing and probably expendiable.

That leaves Casboult for depth if McKay or Charlie are injured

Ok, so out of those 195+ players for the long term we can put a line through Phillips, Lobbe and Casboult?

That's 3 which would bring it into line with what you have seen with the top 5.

I think its the concentration of them in defence that could potentially be unbalanced as we can not play Weitering, Marchbank, Jones and Madcreadie whilst also playing Plowman in the backline at the same time.

But this I think will sort itself out with player departures in the next couple of seasons through retirement and if we trade Macreadie at some point.

I'd perhaps look at it this way:

3 (2 rookie) def tall/key: Jones, Rowe*, Weitering (A Silvagni*, JGM*)
4 def 3rd/med/utility: Marchbank, Plowman, Macreadie, O'Shea*
4 ruck: Kreuzer, Phillips*, Lobbe*, De Koning
2 fwd Key/Tall: Casboult*, McKay
3 fwd hhf/mobile/lead up/3rd: Curnow, Kerr, J Silvagni*

That's 18 players in total, 40% of the list, who I would suggest ideally might occupy 7 or 8 spots on the match day team (but possibly as many as 9 or as little as 6), so about a 3rd, give or take 7%. So we're possibly not that far off the mark as it stands, basically on the upper end of the scale. For what it's worth, our 'tall' percentage stays the same if we count rookies or ignore them.

I've marked the players with * who may not be on that list in the next year or two:

Retirements: Rowe, Phillips? (A Silvagni)
Delisting: O'Shea, Lobbe, Casboult (JGM)
Positional change: J Silvagni?

Looking at the 'future' list, it becomes:

2 def tall/key: Jones, Weitering
3 def 3rd/med/utility: Marchbank, Plowman, Macreadie
2 ruck: Kreuzer, De Koning
1 fwd Key/Tall: McKay
2 fwd hhf/mobile/lead up/3rd: Curnow, Kerr

10 total, for 22% of the list. Way under that ballpark of a third ratio we were talking about earlier. If at the end of this year we lose (for argument's sake) JGM, ASOS, Lobbe & O'Shea that alone knocks us back to 31%.

We'll lose heaps more 'smaller' players this year (and next) than 'talls' and I'm ok with that. Reckon over the next 2 years we bring in at least 3 taller types too, be it through draft, trade, fa, psd, whatever.

 

[blue healer]

Macreadie, if he shows more in the 1st could net something decent IMO, he was highly rated as a junior and has some traits that suit the modern game well.

I think McReadie is one that I'd like to hold, good size and athleticism and hasn't really had a crack. Low profile in the eyes of other clubs I think and probably more value to us than any trade we'd get.

Also, like Kennedy, comes from my neck of the woods so I have an extra hope for him.

 

[Masqualero]

Looking at the 'future' list, it becomes:

2 def tall/key: Jones, Weitering
3 def 3rd/med/utility: Marchbank, Plowman, Macreadie
2 ruck: Kreuzer, De Koning
1 fwd Key/Tall: McKay
2 fwd hhf/mobile/lead up/3rd: Curnow, Kerr

If that's our future list one injury stuffs it completely.

I'd put Curnow as KPP along with Marchbank and Macreadie but that is neither here nor there.

 

[Masqualero]

I think McReadie is one that I'd like to hold, good size and athleticism and hasn't really had a crack. Low profile in the eyes of other clubs I think and probably more value to us than any trade we'd get.

Also, like Kennedy, comes from my neck of the woods so I have an extra hope for him.

I do really like him as well, seems a smart type with athleticism and a beautiful kick.

 

[blue healer]

I'd perhaps look at it this way:

3 (2 rookie) def tall/key: Jones, Rowe*, Weitering (A Silvagni*, JGM*)
4 def 3rd/med/utility: Marchbank, Plowman, Macreadie, O'Shea*
4 ruck: Kreuzer, Phillips*, Lobbe*, De Koning
2 fwd Key/Tall: Casboult*, McKay
3 fwd hhf/mobile/lead up/3rd: Curnow, Kerr, J Silvagni*

That's 18 players in total, 40% of the list, who I would suggest ideally might occupy 7 or 8 spots on the match day team (but possibly as many as 9 or as little as 6), so about a 3rd, give or take 7%. So we're possibly not that far off the mark as it stands, basically on the upper end of the scale. For what it's worth, our 'tall' percentage stays the same if we count rookies or ignore them.

I've marked the players with * who may not be on that list in the next year or two:

Retirements: Rowe, Phillips? (A Silvagni)
Delisting: O'Shea, Lobbe, Casboult (JGM)
Positional change: J Silvagni?

Looking at the 'future' list, it becomes:

2 def tall/key: Jones, Weitering
3 def 3rd/med/utility: Marchbank, Plowman, Macreadie
2 ruck: Kreuzer, De Koning
1 fwd Key/Tall: McKay
2 fwd hhf/mobile/lead up/3rd: Curnow, Kerr

10 total, for 22% of the list. Way under that ballpark of a third ratio we were talking about earlier. If at the end of this year we lose (for argument's sake) JGM, ASOS, Lobbe & O'Shea that alone knocks us back to 31%.

We'll lose heaps more 'smaller' players this year (and next) than 'talls' and I'm ok with that. Reckon over the next 2 years we bring in at least 3 taller types too, be it through draft, trade, fa, psd, whatever.

I agree, that's about where we should be in those numbers and, interestingly we are about there now excluding rookies, I'd just like to see us a little more skewed towards the lower end of talls.

 

[Coona Blues]

You would normally go into a season with 3 ruckmen and a forward that can play a roll. We went in with one extra, due to concerns with Phillips and MK's history

Phillips was sent off shore early in the season/pre-season, in a bid to end his soft tissue injuries, and now has gone
down again just when he was starting to show something. Would not surprise me if Lobbe comes in to replace
Phillips this week to see if he is still up to it after some good form in the twos.

The sensible thing to do would be to flip "Flip", keep Lobbe, use Cas as extra back up while TDK develops and find a
rookie to list/develop.

Phillips was the anointed one at GWS, but couldn't get on the park, they gave up and we gambled on him "coming
solid", clearly isn't happening. Pity because with a good "go at it" would be a decent AFL ruck.

 

[CJMB]

If that's our future list one injury stuffs it completely.

I'd put Curnow as KPP along with Marchbank and Macreadie but that is neither here nor there.

Worth keeping in mind that we're not going to be down to those 10 names at the end of this year.

I'd guess it'd be 18 down to 14/15 this year and then we'll probably lose another 3/4 the year after, any others gone the year after that I would guess.

In that space of time we'll probably add another 3/4 and the balance will probably settle around 14 (give or take 1, ballpark of 33%) for those 'taller' types. More or less bring in a new taller type for every 2 that leave our list (who aren't long term/future options for us).

The other thing to consider is our balance numbers across those positions. I'd suggest a good balance (including rookie/s)might be something along the lines of 3 of each: ruckman, key defender, 3rd/med/utility defender, key forward and hhf/mobile/3rd forward.

I agree, that's about where we should be in those numbers and, interestingly we are about there now excluding rookies, I'd just like to see us a little more skewed towards the lower end of talls.

Right now we've got 16 senior (40% of 40 man senior list) and 2 rookie (40% of 5 rookies).

I'd think a good place to be in the next couple of years is 13 or 14 senior and a rookie.

 

[The Blue Baggers]

I'd perhaps look at it this way:

3 (2 rookie) def tall/key: Jones, Rowe*, Weitering (A Silvagni*, JGM*)
4 def 3rd/med/utility: Marchbank, Plowman, Macreadie, O'Shea*
4 ruck: Kreuzer, Phillips*, Lobbe*, De Koning
2 fwd Key/Tall: Casboult*, McKay
3 fwd hhf/mobile/lead up/3rd: Curnow, Kerr, J Silvagni*

That's 18 players in total, 40% of the list, who I would suggest ideally might occupy 7 or 8 spots on the match day team (but possibly as many as 9 or as little as 6), so about a 3rd, give or take 7%. So we're possibly not that far off the mark as it stands, basically on the upper end of the scale. For what it's worth, our 'tall' percentage stays the same if we count rookies or ignore them.

I've marked the players with * who may not be on that list in the next year or two:

Retirements: Rowe, Phillips? (A Silvagni)
Delisting: O'Shea, Lobbe, Casboult (JGM)
Positional change: J Silvagni?

Looking at the 'future' list, it becomes:

2 def tall/key: Jones, Weitering
3 def 3rd/med/utility: Marchbank, Plowman, Macreadie
2 ruck: Kreuzer, De Koning
1 fwd Key/Tall: McKay
2 fwd hhf/mobile/lead up/3rd: Curnow, Kerr

10 total, for 22% of the list. Way under that ballpark of a third ratio we were talking about earlier. If at the end of this year we lose (for argument's sake) JGM, ASOS, Lobbe & O'Shea that alone knocks us back to 31%.

We'll lose heaps more 'smaller' players this year (and next) than 'talls' and I'm ok with that. Reckon over the next 2 years we bring in at least 3 taller types too, be it through draft, trade, fa, psd, whatever.

Doubt Phillips would be retiring, best tap ruckman on our list !!

 

[CJMB]

Doubt Phillips would be retiring, best tap ruckman on our list !!

He might not have a say in the matter. Let's see how he's going next year and if his body can hold up for any decent period of time.

Played 36 games since his debut in 2014, although he's been second fiddle to 2 great ruckman in Kreuzer and Mumford which doesn't help. Without doing any real research, it feels like he gets injured maybe twice a year or more, just breaks down too easily unfortunately. Had to go O/S last preseason for some special treatment from memory.

 

[harrisendblue]

You would normally go into a season with 3 ruckmen and a forward that can play a roll. We went in with one extra, due to concerns with Phillips and MK's history

Agree Arrow however if next year is not going to be a finals year then take the opportunity to get something for Levi and if possible use lobbe's cash somewhere else. If you need/want further insurance then get a kid or mature ager as a Rookie.

 

[Gethelred]

Agree Arrow however if next year is not going to be a finals year then take the opportunity to get something for Levi and if possible use lobbe's cash somewhere else. If you need/want further insurance then get a kid or mature ager as a Rookie.

Lobbe was actually touted as an excellent young ruckman at Port, with Ryder just being older and better - and very available, given his desire to gtfo of Essendon - at the time. You don't get a significant contract at an AFL club for being s**t at it unless there's huge issues behind doors.

It is the very size of his contract that made him attractive for us, as we simply must spend that much money to meet minimum TPP.

Unless we can find somewhere else to spend it, resign yourself to him continuing on our list. As far as it goes, having an experienced AFL backup ruckman playing VFL and giving first service to youngins over the next few years is not a bad thing.

 

[harrisendblue]

Lobbe was actually touted as an excellent young ruckman at Port, with Ryder just being older and better - and very available, given his desire to gtfo of Essendon - at the time. You don't get a significant contract at an AFL club for being s**t at it unless there's huge issues behind doors.

It is the very size of his contract that made him attractive for us, as we simply must spend that much money to meet minimum TPP.

Unless we can find somewhere else to spend it, resign yourself to him continuing on our list. As far as it goes, having an experienced AFL backup ruckman playing VFL and giving first service to youngins over the next few years is not a bad thing.

I do understand why we got him however the lads been cruelled by injuries and is not the same player. My hope is that we start getting closer to our TPP by using it on players we really want.

 

[BluStreak]

This suggestion to get something for Cas is not taking in to account that we have been trying to d just that for the last few years and there are no takers. So he is either delisted or retained.