Top 8 against the Top 8 during 2015

[Bont2Bruce]

I keep hearing that certain teams inside the top 8 have had a "much easier draw" than other finalists to get the necessary wins to qualify for September action.

This is not true.

The fixturing of the 2015 finalists against each other has in fact turned out to be pretty balanced.

By the end of the home and away fixture, all top 8 sides will have played at least 8 matches and at most 10 matches against the other finalists.

The top 8 win/loss records might surprise a few:

Hawthorn: 75% (6 wins, 2 losses)
Western Bulldogs: 62.5% (5 wins, 3 losses)
Fremantle: 60% (6 wins, 4 losses)
West Coast: 50% (5 wins, 5 losses)
Sydney: 37.5% (3 wins, 5 losses)
Richmond: 37.5% (3 wins, 5 losses)*
North Melbourne: 37.5% (3 wins, 5 losses)*
Adelaide: 37.5% (3 wins, 5 losses)
*play each other during Round 23

 

[Mningasimisonda]

I keep hearing that certain teams inside the top 8 have had a "much easier draw" than others to get the necessary wins to qualify for the 2015 finals.

This is not true.

The fixturing of the 2015 finalists against each other has in fact turned out to be pretty balanced.

By the end of the home and away fixture, all top 8 sides will have played at least 8 matches and at most 10 matches against the other finalists.

The top 8 win/loss records might surprise a few:

Hawthorn: 75% (6 wins, 2 losses)
Western Bulldogs: 62.5% (5 wins, 3 losses)
Fremantle: 60% (6 wins, 4 losses)
West Coast: 50% (5 wins, 5 losses)
Sydney: 37.5% (3 wins, 5 losses)
Richmond: 37.5% (3 wins, 5 losses)*
North Melbourne: 37.5% (3 wins, 5 losses)*
Adelaide: 37.5% (3 wins, 5 losses)

*play each other during Round 23

Interesting, the top two teams have played the most other finalists.

Would be interested in a weighted list (weighted either based ladder position or even better, on wins). Would show who beat better teams in the top 8 and if some got away with playing lower teams in the 8 more.

 

[Bont2Bruce]

Interesting, the top two teams have played the most other finalists.

Would be interested in a weighted list (weighted either based ladder position or wins). Would show who beat better teams in the top 8 and if some got away with playing lower teams in the 8 more.

Given some chance for final ladder positions to change during Round 23, I didn't go there (yet). But a good idea, happy to do this after next week as an update.

 

[_Christoh_]

Interesting info you have there. Freo have played the most games against other top 8 teams with 10 games and some as few as 8.

Port has had 12 games against those teams this year if you include our next game against Freo for 4 wins and 7 losses. Could be 5 wins or 8 losses after this week.

We still didn't deserve to make finals but I just find your post interesting looking from my Port perspective and not something I had considered a factor in us not making the finals. I primarily blame us missing finals on losing to Brisbane and Carlton before pointing to the fact we played lots of games against teams that made the 8.

Interesting info none the less.

EDIT - WCE also have played 10.

 

[_Christoh_]

Both teams from Perth have played 10 matches against the other top 8 teams in fact.

Lol I noticed and edited my post probably at the same time you were typing a correction to me.

 

[Procrastinator35]

I

Hawthorn: 75% (6 wins, 2 losses)
Western Bulldogs: 62.5% (5 wins, 3 losses)
Fremantle: 60% (6 wins, 4 losses)
West Coast: 50% (5 wins, 5 losses)
Sydney: 37.5% (3 wins, 5 losses)
Richmond: 37.5% (3 wins, 5 losses)*
North Melbourne: 37.5% (3 wins, 5 losses)*
Adelaide: 37.5% (3 wins, 5 losses)
*play each other during Round 23

Boy....It's lucky for us that Port never made the finals.

 

[_Christoh_]

Actually I was wrong Port have played 13 games against the top 8 if you include our game against Freo this week.

 

[The King!]

Those wins we threw away v the dogs and tigers costly

Dogs been impressive

Guess the breakdown of home and away would be interesting

To me it illustrates the premiers are still the best side

 

[gothecrows]

Actually I was wrong Port have played 13 games against the top 8 if you include our game against Freo this week.

I don't think you can read too much into that. Port were top 4 last year, so had to get a "harder" draw. Also, since they didn't make it this year, they've got 13 games against 8 teams - those in the 8 have only got 7 others to play against.
Put it this way - if port had made the finals instead of Adelaide, the count would be 11 for port, and 10 for Adelaide.

 

[Quinz]

A lot was made of our apparently soft draw at times throughout the year. Unsurprisingly that turned out to not be true. Would have liked to have gone a little better than 5-5 though, but it shows why Hawthorn are still premiership favourites in most people's eyes.

 

[andrew coombs]

The rapid improvement of WC,WB and Adelaide this year have certainly caused ujustments to who has and haven't had an "easy draw" this season. A double up with the Dogs was considered a distinct advantage but has turned out a lot different. Same as West Coast who would have been seen as a, at worst, break even if you got them twice. Hawthorn got Sydney, Essendon,Port,Carlton and Geelong twice and given the likely final standings it has worked out a pretty favourable outcome. The fact that they will only sweep Geelong and Carlton is indicative of why they will be on the road in week one of the finals and not at home in Melbourne.

 

[The_Flying_Egg]

Actually I was wrong Port have played 13 games against the top 8 if you include our game against Freo this week.

The teams in the 8 only have 7 possible teams to play against though ... 13 is a lot still

 

[Port01]

This year I think games v the clear bottom 6 is more of an indicator of a soft draw.
there is a massive gap between 12 and 13.

 

[El_Scorcho]

Port Adelaide (9th) - 5 wins, 7 losses with a game to play against Freo this week.

3-5 less games against top 8 opposition would have been nice

 

[Stikman75]

Port Adelaide (9th) - 5 wins, 7 losses with a game to play against Freo this week.

3-5 less games against top 8 opposition would have been nice

Had you won more of those games perhaps those teams would not have finished top eight?

Hindsight is 20/20 as they say. The draw is fixed for revenue, it's not fixed to advantage or disadvantage teams (although it may do that as a side-effect.)

 

[Dazb86]

Had you won more of those games perhaps those teams would not have finished top eight?

Hindsight is 20/20 as they say. The draw is fixed for revenue, it's not fixed to advantage or disadvantage teams (although it may do that as a side-effect.)

It actually is fixed to advantage the bottom sides and disadvantage the top sides now.

OP you forgot to take away the games played prior to round 6 and the games won at Etihad to make this a balanced argument. Takes the Dogs to 0-2. Pretty damning.

 

[Ancient Tiger]

Thanks Bachar.......

 

[Port01]

Had you won more of those games perhaps those teams would not have finished top eight?

If we had beaten all of them (ie went 9-0 so far against those sides), they would all still in be in the top 9, and Adelaide could still knock North out so they would all finish in.
As it is we went 4-5 so far with 3 losses under 2 goals, so being competitive against good teams hasn't been our issue this year, we simply couldnt afford to drop games to the bottom 6 as we didnt have any double ups to make it up.

 

[Rourke]

This year I think games v the clear bottom 6 is more of an indicator of a soft draw.

Against the Bottom 6:
GWS 9-0 (100%) are the only team who have played 9, and it will be 10 next week. Collingwood (7-1) & Bulldogs (6-2) will move to 9.

Finalists: * means they have another next week
6 Sydney* (6-0)
7 Fremantle (7-0), West Coast* (6-0-1), Hawthorn* (6-1)
8 Adelaide (8-0), Richmond (7-1), North Melb (7-1), W Bulldogs* (6-2)

Only Melbourne (2-4) and Brisbane (2-5) have won less than 50% against the Bottom 6.

 

[sante]

Port Adelaide (9th) - 5 wins, 7 losses with a game to play against Freo this week.

3-5 less games against top 8 opposition would have been nice

Probably would have lost them

 

[Rourke]

Hawthorn has scored a net +312 (+39 per game) against other finalists. Only two other clubs have a positive balance: West Coast (+108; +11 per game) and Fremantle (+11; +1 per game). Worst of the finalists is North Melb at -193 (-24 per game).

If you extend it to the top 12, this is the ladder:

Fremantle   71%      10-4     108%
Hawthorn    64%       9-5     135%
WC Eagles   64%       9-5     126%
W Bulldogs  62%       8-5     103%
Sydney      60%       9-6     107%
Richmond    54%       7-6     108%
Port Adel   47%       7-8      94%
North Melb  46%       6-7      92%
Geelong     43%       6-8      84%
Adelaide    42%       5-7      95%
Melbourne   27%       4-11     69%
Collingwood 23%       3-10     89%
GWS         17%       2-10     69%
St Kilda    11%       1-12-1   65%
Gold Coast  10%       1-13-1   65%
Bris Lions   7%       1-13     57%
Essendon     7%       1-14     64%
Carlton      7%       1-14     55%

There's a case for Collingwood and especially GWS to be downgraded on this record.

 

[Cudi]

The top 8 win/loss records might surprise a few:

Hawthorn: 75% (6 wins, 2 losses)
Western Bulldogs: 62.5% (5 wins, 3 losses)
Fremantle: 60% (6 wins, 4 losses)
West Coast: 50% (5 wins, 5 losses)
Sydney: 37.5% (3 wins, 5 losses)
Richmond: 37.5% (3 wins, 5 losses)*
North Melbourne: 37.5% (3 wins, 5 losses)*
Adelaide: 37.5% (3 wins, 5 losses)
*play each other during Round 23

Those stats are incorrect. The AFL season did not officially start until Round 6 this year so all matches before that are null and void.

 

[Pessimistic]

One word

Squiggle

 

[Tiger Toffee]

Those stats are incorrect. The AFL season did not officially start until Round 6 this year so all matches before that are null and void.

A couple of questions for you, lets see if you can answer them.

1. How many games do you think the Bulldogs played against teams who were 1-6 at the time of playing them ?
2. When do you think 71% of these occured ?

 

[Cudi]

A couple of questions for you, lets see if you can answer them.

1. How many games do you think the Bulldogs played against teams who were 1-6 at the time of playing them ?
2. When do you think 71% of these occured ?

Don't know and don't care or I know is that our record against the top 8 is 5-3 and that all win's count regardless what round they are played in.