Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 2

[Gethelred]

This is a sensitive area for some. With that in mind, I'm going to remind a few posters a few things:

• personal attacks are against forum rules. From this point, any attacks that are directed at another poster will be treated with a warning, then infractions and threadbans if it continues.
• the spread of misinformation is also against the rules. This is taken very seriously by moderation, and you will be asked to support your opinion from time to time. If you cannot satisfy this, you will be provided an opportunity to retract your post; if you do not, you will receive an infraction and a threadban on that basis.

This is a forum for adults, and I'd appreciate you all treating each other appropriately.

 

[Mobbs]

Latvia and Estonia have perhaps reacted a bit early considering it's still a bit up in the air as to what happened. It's even possible that it's misguided anti missile fire from Ukraine, which was responsible. It might even turn out to not be rocket fire at all. We've had some news-source over-excitement before where it seemed there was shelling and it turned out to be just an explosion accident.

 

[LittleG]

IF your missiles aren’t accurate, you don’t fire them near territory of a neighbour you don’t want to fight.
It’s quite simple really. No point risking escalation in a war you are currently not winning.

Bad decision, likely due to cascading human error….

 

[Mobbs]

From Severodonetsk News there was mention earlier in the day that Russia had been launching missile fire on Ukraine again, including some in the west eg Lviv (which is the relevant region). This would coincide with the argument that this Lou Bega moment is either Russia missile fire or Ukrainian anti-missile fire.

There were about 20 missiles in Ukrainian airspace just now. Part of the rockets hit the West of Ukraine! No light/or problems with light in cities and regions: Rivne, Khmelnytskyi, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr.


Severodonetsk News also say its worth keeping a close eye on their town over the next few days. They expect some important events will be reported there. This coincides with reports Denis Davydov made yesterday about Russian plans to depart the region encompassing Severodonetsk, Lisichansk, Kreminna and Rubizhne.

 

[Mobbs]

IF your missiles aren’t accurate, you don’t fire them near territory of a neighbour you don’t want to fight.
It’s quite simple really. No point risking escalation in a war you are currently not winning.

Bad decision, likely due to cascading human error….

Precisely. It's like colouring in, when you get close to the lines, you turn the pencil upwards and look more closely. And preferably don't be drunk.

 

[Mobbs]

From No War in Ukraine TG channel.
The first video from the site of the explosion in the Polish village of Przewodow, Lublin Voivodeship.

 

[Cap]

Latvia and Estonia have perhaps reacted a bit early considering it's still a bit up in the air as to what happened. It's even possible that it's misguided anti missile fire from Ukraine, which was responsible. It might even turn out to not be rocket fire at all. We've had some news-source over-excitement before where it seemed there was shelling and it turned out to be just an explosion accident.

Both those countries have gone all in supporting Ukraine (looking at a map you can see why)

It's looking more and more like actual missiles, will be interesting to see the response.

Russia is a terrorist state though, bunch of cowards.

Edit - As noted in your other post, given the potential land loss coming up, you'd think they'd use the missiles to try and help that.

 

[Mobbs]

Both those countries have gone all in supporting Ukraine (looking at a map you can see why)

It's looking more and more like actual missiles, will be interesting to see the response.

Russia is a terrorist state though, bunch of cowards.

Edit - As noted in your other post, given the potential land loss coming up, you'd think they'd use the missiles to try and help that.

Yep, for sure Estonia and Latvia have loudly supported Ukraine and even taken some semi-aggressive measures re Russia, including enforcing the sanctions over goods transportation to Kaliningrad, a lot of media about raising forces and even defensive borderline infrastructure. Their political statements have been tantamount to vitriolic.

All that said, I probably would have worded a statement more formally, though the message would still be so clear. "We are a member state of NATO alongside Poland and are fully intent on playing our part in offering our neighbours support when necessary."

And Poland have to say "ouch" first, before any escalation can really happen.

I also do think NATO do a massive amount of pacing outside the perimeter and snarling without acting - there is some chance that even a fully culpable Russia would get simply a "this is your last warning ... again!"

 

[Mobbs]

(there's no source, I'm guessing this is just a troll post by the TG channel ... a troll post with surprising legs!)

Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation: statements about the fall of Russian missiles in Poland are a deliberate provocation.


Nevermind, it's real. Ahh why do I ever doubt the RF? Novaya Gazeta:
The Russian Defense Ministry called the reports of the Polish media about the fall of Russian missiles on the territory of Poland "a deliberate provocation in order to escalate the situation." “There were no strikes against targets near the Ukrainian-Polish state border by Russian means of destruction. The fragments published in hot pursuit by the Polish media from the scene in the village of Przewoduv have nothing to do with Russian weapons,” the Russian ministry said.

 

[LittleG]

Yep, for sure Estonia and Latvia have loudly supported Ukraine and even taken some semi-aggressive measures re Russia, including enforcing the sanctions over goods transportation to Kaliningrad, a lot of media about raising forces and even defensive borderline infrastructure. Their political statements have been tantamount to vitriolic.

All that said, I probably would have worded a statement more formally, though the message would still be so clear. "We are a member state of NATO alongside Poland and are fully intent on playing our part in offering our neighbours support when necessary."

And Poland have to say "ouch" first, before any escalation can really happen.

I also do think NATO do a massive amount of pacing outside the perimeter and snarling without acting - there is some chance that even a fully culpable Russia would get simply a "this is your last warning ... again!"

Russia won’t understand another “last warning”.

Which is an indictment on the warnings as much as the terrorist state.

 

[RICHOLEGEND12]

A precarious position now...

Is it worth Poland, and NATO getting involved over a stray missile ? Probably not. But then at the same time, how far will they let Russia go? There needs to be some sort of line. But Putin is nuts, Russia is already losing the war. Even a small air strike in revenge might escalate Putin into madness 'its Russia vs the world'. But perhaps that's what he wants us to think, madman theory like Nixon.

 

[Cap]

Yep, for sure Estonia and Latvia have loudly supported Ukraine and even taken some semi-aggressive measures re Russia, including enforcing the sanctions over goods transportation to Kaliningrad, a lot of media about raising forces and even defensive borderline infrastructure. Their political statements have been tantamount to vitriolic.

All that said, I probably would have worded a statement more formally, though the message would still be so clear. "We are a member state of NATO alongside Poland and are fully intent on playing our part in offering our neighbours support when necessary."

And Poland have to say "ouch" first, before any escalation can really happen.

I also do think NATO do a massive amount of pacing outside the perimeter and snarling without acting - there is some chance that even a fully culpable Russia would get simply a "this is your last warning ... again!"

I'm no expert on these things

It would be interesting or even if it was possible for Poland to establish a no fly zone over Western Ukraine for "territorial defence"

Can't see Ukraine minding and I can't see Russia doing s**t about it.

Just if it's possible.

 

[darth_timon]

If it did prove to be a stray Ukrainian anti-missile rocket, it ought to be said, those rockets wouldn't be in the air near the border, if Russia wasn't hurling missiles indiscriminately at Ukrainian cities, near the Polish border.

 

[Mobbs]

If it did prove to be a stray Ukrainian anti-missile rocket, it ought to be said, those rockets wouldn't be in the air near the border, if Russia wasn't hurling missiles indiscriminately at Ukrainian cities, near the Polish border.

Yeah I was just thinking the same thing. Any collateral damage from fire intended to nerf an attack fired AT you, is by and large an extension of the attack fired AT you. So fallout from Ukrainian anti-missile fire is technically fallout from Russian fire.

 

[Mobbs]

Also Ukraine would say "damn, sorry" while Russia would say "it wasn't us / fake news / it's happened in a studio / Poland did it to themselves" until the cows came home.

 

[Mobbs]

Perhaps Ukraine was a diversionary tactic / feint while Russia were really after a random farm in eastern Poland all along ... for the land oops I mean the military positioning oops I mean the oil, or course.

 

[1990crow]

It's not in the world's interest for Poland and by virtue NATO to get involved with this war.
It would mean WW3.

 

[darth_timon]

Russia is indeed trying to say this is a Ukrainian strike. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-asia-63593855

Russia's playbook will be 'Ukraine did this, to increase NATO involvement, it's a false-flag move'. They'll claim this because this is exactly what they'd do.

If Ukraine were to try such a move, and it got out, NATO support for them would... well, it might not instantly dry up completely, but a lot of support for Ukraine would wane, and badly. It would enormously risky, and difficult to fake. Occam's Razor seems to apply.

 

[1990crow]

Russia is indeed trying to say this is a Ukrainian strike. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-asia-63593855

Russia's playbook will be 'Ukraine did this, to increase NATO involvement, it's a false-flag move'. They'll claim this because this is exactly what they'd do.

If Ukraine were to try such a move, and it got out, NATO support for them would... well, it might not instantly dry up completely, but a lot of support for Ukraine would wane, and badly. It would enormously risky, and difficult to fake. Occam's Razor seems to apply.

I mean, it's an interesting thought. You'd assume it was Russian..

 

[Saint]

I highly doubt that. If they wanted to take Kiev, they would have shelled the living s**t out of it.

They've actually been holding back (relatively speaking).

Russia have 1,750 BM-21 Grad multiple rocket launchers:

A battalion of 18 of these trucks, is able to launch 720 (20 kilo HE) rockets in a single volley, up to 30kms away.

Even assuming 1/3 of their Rocket artillery arsenal is operative (500 or so), that's an insane amount of firepower they can bring to bear.

Russian doctrine is basically to shell the living s**t out a target with these things. Literally pound it into dust. Then roll in Motor Rifle Brigades (Armor and AFV's).

They've held back so far, and havent gone down this path.

Did you see the queue of trucks which couldn't move anywhere? You can have all the artillery pieces in the world, if you can't get ammunition to them, they're useless. You know what this truck is useless without? Petrol. They didn't have enough, hence they left them all behind.

It was a complete and utter logistical failure. Not a feint. A feint would have been across a broader front to absorb more troops. The way they invaded, they went in a straight-line, enabling the defender to concentrate their defences. That's the opposite of what a feint is supposed to be doing. Admit, that what you're saying makes absolutely no sense.

They have tried to shell cities/towns into dust, did you miss Mariupol and Azovstal?? The thing about such a pounding is that it requires supply lines to be established and artillery positions to be safe. It's something done like a siege, not as the front of a moving advance.

 

[Frank Grimes]

Edit - As noted in your other post, given the potential land loss coming up, you'd think they'd use the missiles to try and help that.

The missile targets have little strategic value. It's just Putin having a tantrum because things aren't working out for him.

 

[Mobbs]

It's not in the world's interest for Poland and by virtue NATO to get involved with this war.
It would mean WW3.

I know and appreciate your reasoning, but I don't agree - it feels like a big green tick beside sacrificing the people of Ukraine (men, women, children) to a standover tactic, rather than risk our own personal safety. If it was my vote eg if I was some player in the decision making, I would have the lives of the Ukrainian friends whom I know, on my mind. I would wonder how to tell them "I don't wanna die, so I'm sorry, but you're going to have to."

 

[1990crow]

I know and appreciate your reasoning, but I don't agree - it feels like a big green tick beside sacrificing the people of Ukraine (men, women, children) to a standover tactic, rather than risk our own personal safety. If it was my vote eg if I was some player in the decision making, I would have the lives of the Ukrainian friends whom I know, on my mind. I would wonder how to tell them "I don't wanna die, so I'm sorry, but you're going to have to."

I get it, it's just hard to justify millions dying over thousands.

 

[Mobbs]

I get it, it's just hard to justify millions dying over thousands.

Kind of a trolley problem.
But we know Ukrainians have and are dying. So my stance is also based on how a nuclear response is possible but the current genocide is actual. Which I guess is more like the two birds in the bush proverb. So I'm justifying "an error bar between 0 and millions" over thousands.

 

[1990crow]

Kind of a trolley problem.
But we know Ukrainians have and are dying. So my stance is also based on how a nuclear response is possible but the current genocide is actual. Which I guess is more like the two birds in the bush proverb. So I'm justifying "an error bar between 0 and millions" over thousands.

Ukraine has the momentum, I'd rather that continue without changing the status quo.
The risk would be Russia mass mobilised millions, AND China decides it's time for Taiwan at the same time.

No thanks.

 

[Saint]

I mean, it's an interesting thought. You'd assume it was Russian..

Poland, Estonia and Latvia and Lithuania have been itching to get involved more, but NATO has likely held them back.

My guess would be that moving troops/assets to the Kaliningrad and Belarus borders would be the response, along with warnings that they're willing to use them if another missile "accidentally" kills their citizens.

Polish people HATE russians with a passion we in non-Soviet countries can't even imagine. Russia has now killed two of their citizens. A non-escalation is not a politically-possible option for their Govt, regardless of the US and NATO trying to tone them down.

Maybe it'll just be a huge chunk more ammo and support for Ukraine, maybe something more direct.