what are your predictions for geelong?

[Pavlovs Cat]

I think Geelong might go through what hawthorn faced in 2009-10 drop out of the finals for a year and return to flag contention in a few years.

Maybe but I've noticed the two clubs appear to have different list building strategies. The Hawks appear more willing to bring in ready made players to fulfil certain roles (or is it the Hawks bring in FIT players for certain roles) where the Cats seem to go a bit more through the draft route.

I reckon two years out of the finals would not be a part of the Cat masterplan.

 

[utility]

Healthy list, 3-6.
Injuries/suspensions to key players, 7-10.

 

[Whit3y]

Healthy list, 3-6.
Injuries/suspensions to key players, 7-10.

is stevey j suffered a season ending injury geelong are stuffed.

 

[Bosk]

They've cleaned out a number of senior players so I take that to mean they are expecting next year to be a rebuilding year.

With that in mind you'd expect them to slide but perhaps not too far.

 

[Matt_BL]

If you look at the departures:

Chapman, Corey, Podsiadly, Hunt and West there's a significant amount of experience out the door for one reason or another. They've got a few good young players in the team but this year there was a showing of the team not able to put together a strong 4 quarter performance for most of the year. The team has faded a bit in games and the worry is whether losing more experienced players will open this up even more. No doubt the midfield is the strongest part of the ground but apart from Selwood it is getting a bit older and with the 120 rotation cap it may mean younger bodies will be needed more inside where they may get exposed.

The teams core is still strong there's basically a star player in every part of the ground but I think to put it simply, are Geelong's kids as good as everyone elses? If they are it'll mean the team will be able to compete, but with teams like Gold Coast and GWS having a significant amount of the best talent one guy like Jack Martin who has played 1-10 games could dominate a 3rd-4th year player whos played 30-40 games so without that extra support of experienced players the team could be a little more exposed in those moments where players need to stand up.

There's a few questions but no reason why there will be a complete fade, I would say a safe bet would be the 6-8 range

 

[AM]

We still went 4-2 without him in the side this year.....and those 2 losses were by an average margin of just four points.

Don't get sucked in Bobby. He's been setting baits all around the place. Including our board. He's about as much a Geelong supporter as Eddie McGiure is.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

This is where I see Corey as a big loss, yes he was slowing down but each week you knew what he was going to get. You can't do that with any of the Geelong kids yet and even ones like Christensen, Duncan and Hunt who are older are still not consistent.

If you take out the games where they started as the sub (each of Corey, Christensen and Duncan started with the green vest once), or were subbed off (Duncan went off concussed in Round 20 without troubling the scorers), the average disposals were 22.5 (Duncan) 21.4 (Christensen) and 21.3 (Corey). The medians were 22 for Duncan and Corey and 20 for Christensen. Doesn't look too shabby for the young blokes, especially when you consider that Christensen kicked 23 goals, Duncan kicked 14 and Corey kicked 5.

 

[Hodgepodge]

Geelong won't miss Corey, except for depth. The question is whether they can cover the loss of depth and also the declination of their older players at the same time.

 

[Whit3y]

Don't get sucked in Bobby. He's been setting baits all around the place. Including our board. He's about as much a Geelong supporter as Eddie McGiure is.

im sorry my opinion differs from yours. ill try and follow the script from now on.

 

[The Swans Blog]

Have said they will slide for about 3 years now but this time I mean it ; )

Remarkable team, will still be in the top 8, depends on how quick the kids come along as to how high they can go, only a goal off another GF.

To miss the 8 a lot would have to go wrong. Hopefully for them Hawkins is ok, probably their most important.

The dropped to 7th last year and you guys were able to knock them out in the first round, then you followed it up this year with another first round win

I've got them coming in at 6th. They lack forward and ruck options, and any injuries to Tom Hawkins and they'll struggle to kick winning scores. You could see it when they played Freo with Hawks playing injured, they couldn't build anything in the last quarter.

 

[kicksome]

4th-7th
younger team, so will be a bit more inconsistent.
Can still rattle a few cages of the big boys but we will go full re-**** when we play teams like brisbane and north

 

[MotleyLemon]

4th-7th
younger team, so will be a bit more inconsistent.
Can still rattle a few cages of the big boys but we will go full re-**** when we play teams like brisbane and north

We'll struggle to beat North without a tagger to put on Harvey, unless Taylor Hunt returns to form, at which point we should do them by at least 6 goals.

 

[Partridge]

The dropped to 7th last year and you guys were able to knock them out in the first round, then you followed it up this year with another first round win

I've got them coming in at 6th. They lack forward and ruck options, and any injuries to Tom Hawkins and they'll struggle to kick winning scores. You could see it when they played Freo with Hawks playing injured, they couldn't build anything in the last quarter.

If you mean the Qualifying Final, Hawkins wasn't playing at all. Walker was brought in for him.

 

[The Swans Blog]

If you mean the Qualifying Final, Hawkins wasn't playing at all. Walker was brought in for him.

Well, in that case, you've kind of proven my point even though I was wrong about Hawkins playing. And since you got rid of Posiadly (in my opinion not an ideal move since you have no backup or replacement), you've only got 1 playing to tonk it to. Even though Hawkins was already taking the best defender every week and sometimes double-teamed, teams will find it easier to deny him scoring opportunities. Think about how Hall used to struggle without a 2nd forward, or Cloke at Collingwood. The only other tall guys you've got that can play forward (apart from Swinger Taylor) are ruckman who sometimes stick a mark and rarely kick a goal.

 

[Ahern2Boof]

I like Geelong, I like their uniqueness in being the only Victorian side still with a home ground advantage. I like how, despite their recent dominance, they aren't an arrogant club (well I don't see them that way anyway), I love how they play their football, and I love their younger players. I truly do wish them nothing but success in 2014, which is strange as I don't really want to see the same old same old up near the top of the ladder (e.g Hawks, Swans), but wouldn't mind at all if the Cats were the best side of next year. Except for when we play them.

 

[manboob]

Well, in that case, you've kind of proven my point even though I was wrong about Hawkins playing. And since you got rid of Posiadly (in my opinion not an ideal move since you have no backup or replacement), you've only got 1 playing to tonk it to. Even though Hawkins was already taking the best defender every week and sometimes double-teamed, teams will find it easier to deny him scoring opportunities. Think about how Hall used to struggle without a 2nd forward, or Cloke at Collingwood. The only other tall guys you've got that can play forward (apart from Swinger Taylor) are ruckman who sometimes stick a mark and rarely kick a goal.

We've got 2 in the reserves (still a big question mark) and Vardy should really be playing forward next year. He's no legit ruckman. I think we'll be fine. We've looked a bit impotent going forward at times cause Stevie J is spending the majority of his time in the midfield now.

 

[The Swans Blog]

We've got 2 in the reserves (still a big question mark) and Vardy should really be playing forward next year. He's no legit ruckman. I think we'll be fine. We've looked a bit impotent going forward at times cause Stevie J is spending the majority of his time in the midfield now.

I'm curious to see what Geelong do and I expect them to trade for a forward next season. They may be playing a wait-and-see game in 2014 to see if any defenders come along so that Taylor may play forward more frequently, or if Vardy or someone else progresses enough to become a reliable forward. I see the game plan shifting a bit to what the Swans were playing in 2010 & 2011 - 1 key forward and a lot of crumbers; get it long and pick it up off the ground.

 

[adelaidecrows]

My prediction is they will drop rapidly. They have a lot of ageing talent, lack of a ruckman and the defence is questionable. They still have a lot of excitement in the team don't get me wrong but that star power they once had on every line is disappearing and hence they are destined to drop back into the pack. I am predicting a middle of the table finish next season. They are on the door step of that dreaded rebuild.

 

[MotleyLemon]

My prediction is they will drop rapidly. They have a lot of ageing talent, lack of a ruckman and the defence is questionable. They still have a lot of excitement in the team don't get me wrong but that star power they once had on every line is disappearing and hence they are destined to drop back into the pack. I am predicting a middle of the table finish next season. They are on the door step of that dreaded rebuild.

I think you'll find that, pending health, ruck will be one of our strong points next year. Dawson Simpson was fantastic before he went down for the year, and McIntosh is a more than capable back up. Not sure where you see the question marks on our backline, either...

 

[MotleyLemon]

Well, in that case, you've kind of proven my point even though I was wrong about Hawkins playing. And since you got rid of Posiadly (in my opinion not an ideal move since you have no backup or replacement), you've only got 1 playing to tonk it to. Even though Hawkins was already taking the best defender every week and sometimes double-teamed, teams will find it easier to deny him scoring opportunities. Think about how Hall used to struggle without a 2nd forward, or Cloke at Collingwood. The only other tall guys you've got that can play forward (apart from Swinger Taylor) are ruckman who sometimes stick a mark and rarely kick a goal.

I'm completely surprised a Sydney fan has no idea of another teams list. Truly...

 

[The Swans Blog]

I'm completely surprised a Sydney fan has no idea of another teams list. Truly...

So, who's your replacement for a key position forward proven at AFL level, capable of kicking goals and taking the best or 2nd best defender and can still kick goals, reliably might I mention. Well? Who is it you have hidden up your sleeves?

 

[MotleyLemon]

So, who's your replacement for a key position forward proven at AFL level, capable of kicking goals and taking the best or 2nd best defender and can still kick goals, reliably might I mention. Well? Who is it you have hidden up your sleeves?

Vardy, obviously.

I'd be surprised if there were 20 players in the AFL capable of taking the best defender and kicking goals reliably.

You have said we have "no replacement or backup", which is just not true.

It would also appear as though we actually appear to stick to our "no dickheads policy".

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Well, in that case, you've kind of proven my point even though I was wrong about Hawkins playing. And since you got rid of Posiadly (in my opinion not an ideal move since you have no backup or replacement), you've only got 1 playing to tonk it to.

Considering Hawkins' back concerns dated back to the first month of the season, we needed Podsiadly to kick 50-60 goals for us last year (if he could have done that, maybe the match committee might have been more willing to rest Hawkins earlier, as they undoubtedly should have). Instead, he kicked just 33 goals in 23 games, kicked more than two just once in his final 13 games and was held goalless in the semi final and preliminary final. I think he still could have value as a second key forward option, or an emergency, but going on the 2013 evidence, his days of kicking 50 goals a season are over.

Geelong has Vardy, Kersten, Walker and Brown (though he is being groomed as a key defender), who are all options to take Podsiadly's spot. Walker kicked 31 goals in 14 games in the VFL (including 19 in his last five games and nine in the PF/GF); Kersten kicked 41 goals in 13 games (with six hauls of 4+), Brown has kicked multiple bags over the years in the VFL (with his best being nine); and Vardy had a bag of six last year in the VFL and kicked four in his AFL return. Plus Joel Hamling, Geelong's first pick in the 2011 draft, has been used in a variety of positions in the VFL and has also managed a bag of five and another of six in 2013.

As of Round 1, 2014, those players will be 21 (Walker), 21 (Kersten), 23 (Brown), 22 (Vardy) and 20 (Hamling). It's actually the very reason that they put Pods out to pasture (and were always going to unless he went absolutely nuts with about 60 goals last season, in my opinion), because these guys have not been getting anywhere near enough of an opportunity. I'll back those players to match Podsiadly's output per game from 2013 and hopefully Hawkins is able to put a few more through the middle than he did last year as well.

They have a lot of ageing talent, lack of a ruckman and the defence is questionable. They are on the door step of that dreaded rebuild.

You try not to be biased about your own team, but I mean...three 2013 AAs will be returning in that defence (Mackie, Enright, Taylor). They've only lost Josh Hunt (who wouldn't have even been playing in the seniors in the finals, if Enright wasn't injured).

The remaining spots will be filled by Lonergan (I think it's fair to say that he's pretty universally-respected as one of the best lock down full backs in the game), Guthrie (21 years old, possibly Geelong's best finals player last year, but nobody knows who he is because he doesn't get Dream Team points), Bartel (don't want him in defence, to be honest, but apparently he's there to stay), Rivers (injury-plagued year, but looks like a pretty solid option to defend opposition's third talls), Brown (hoping 2014 is the year he finally makes the leap as a permanent in the AFL side), Thurlow (first round pick last year, played four games and looked like he could make a half back flank his own over the next couple of years) and Taylor Hunt (he has shown the ability to play as a small defender and will be an option if his form as a tagger continues to desert him) among others.

Taylor, Mackie, Enright, Lonergan, Guthrie, Bartel, Rivers, Brown, Thurlow, T.Hunt. How many clubs are less questionable and deeper than that?

Rucks, as people have mentioned, depends on who's fit. We only need one of Simpson/McIntosh to be available at any given time throughout the season to be more than competitive in that area, in my opinion. Probably should take one in the draft though.

As for a rebuild, well, they've been doing that since the end of 2009, at least (you could say 2007 at a stretch, since King, Egan and N.Ablett never played for the club again after that season). Only nine 2009 premiership players remain and only seven from 2007.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

So, who's your replacement for a key position forward proven at AFL level, capable of kicking goals and taking the best or 2nd best defender and can still kick goals, reliably might I mention. Well? Who is it you have hidden up your sleeves?

How appropriate that you've given us a real-life chicken/egg situation. You wanted Geelong to hang on to Podsiadly, yet you're also bemoaning the fact that the Cats haven't got any '...proven at AFL level...' key forwards? Podsiadly was in their way. These players get their chance now. Maybe they're up to it, maybe not. If Podsiadly had stuck around, we may never have found out.

 

[Sttew]

So, who's your replacement for a key position forward proven at AFL level, capable of kicking goals and taking the best or 2nd best defender and can still kick goals, reliably might I mention. Well? Who is it you have hidden up your sleeves?

How smug and arrogant a post. Unlike Sydney, Geelong does not have the salary cap luxury to raid other clubs of their KPP's and offer them the "world" to come on board. We have to battle on and develop from within. Maybe one day Sydney will experience this reality?

No doubt Geelong thought long and hard about whether to keep Podsiadly on the list. Sadly we had to let him go*, and no doubt the club's thinking was that Kerstin, Vardy and Burbury are waiting in the wings for their chance at senior level. Vardy has had an injury interrupted career but has shown enough to suggest he can hold a KPP.

Expect Stevie J and Jimmy Bartel to spend more time up forward too.

* I say sadly only because you never want to see premiership players retire