Your official BigBasketball 2015/16 NBA season preview - now with 15% more childish humour

[stewie griffen]

I dont think PG will struggle to return. It was a broken leg, it wasnt an ACL or anything like that. Broken legs mend. You just need to find your confidence again. It's ligament injuries that can derail careers.

Bogut broken arm
Kevin Ware broken leg

Look at AFL with Nathan Brown and the premier league history of broken legs as well.

It depends on the severity of the break and the other damage you do. PG's wasn't just a 'break', he basically snapped his leg in half, he's got a rod in there for life

 

[jod23]

Bogut broken arm
Kevin Ware broken leg

Look at AFL with Nathan Brown and the premier league history of broken legs as well.

It depends on the severity of the break and the other damage you do. PG's wasn't just a 'break', he basically snapped his leg in half, he's got a rod in there for life

True. But plenty come back from broken legs. Wasnt Bogut's broken arm closer to the joints like this shoulder and stuff popped out. I dont know who Kevin Ware is.

Lot's of guys have had their legs broken in half and come back fine. Cisse did it twice. Carragher came back strong from a broken leg. He snapped his leg in half. But at the end of the day it was just the bones. Bones can be mended and made even stronger with the rod he has in there. I think PG once he gets his confidence back will be fine.

You cant say the same for blokes with ligament damage like D-Rose. Isiah's career ended with ligament injuries. It killed Grant Hill's career.

 

[fidstar]

True. But plenty come back from broken legs. Wasnt Bogut's broken arm closer to the joints like this shoulder and stuff popped out. I dont know who Kevin Ware is.

Lot's of guys have had their legs broken in half and come back fine. Cisse did it twice. Carragher came back strong from a broken leg. He snapped his leg in half. But at the end of the day it was just the bones. Bones can be mended and made even stronger with the rod he has in there. I think PG once he gets his confidence back will be fine.

You cant say the same for blokes with ligament damage like D-Rose. Isiah's career ended with ligament injuries. It killed Grant Hill's career.

Grant Hill did break a bone in his foot fwiw.

Thomas retired due to his Achilles injury when he was 33. Same result would have happened if he had broken his leg in half no doubt.

 

[stewie griffen]

I advise you to not eat dinner before googling Kevin ware either

 

[fidstar]

Watching injuries is the nut low of sports. Especially because they seem to want to replay them 100 times in super slow motion

 

[Hipster Doofus]

I dont think PG will struggle to return. It was a broken leg, it wasnt an ACL or anything like that. Broken legs mend. You just need to find your confidence again. It's ligament injuries that can derail careers.

Nathan Brown says hello.

 

[Son of Skeletor]

South East division is next up folks.

Atlanta_Cats - you still up for previewing the Hawks? BoshtrichBurger would love your thoughts on the Magic's off-season and tigs2010 yours on the Heat. J Shuttlesworth - interested in talking about the Hornets mate? Or at least letting me steal some of those mirthful face icons

Look at AFL with Nathan Brown and the premier league history of broken legs as well.

It depends on the severity of the break and the other damage you do. PG's wasn't just a 'break', he basically snapped his leg in half, he's got a rod in there for life

That's the one I initially thought of too. Made it back, but not to his former level.

Lot's of guys have had their legs broken in half and come back fine. Cisse did it twice. Carragher came back strong from a broken leg. He snapped his leg in half. But at the end of the day it was just the bones. Bones can be mended and made even stronger with the rod he has in there. I think PG once he gets his confidence back will be fine.

For every Cisse there's a Luc Nilis or David Busst though.

Obviously George isn't in that territory, otherwise he'd have never been risked last season. It's not a fait accompli that he'll be the same PG though.

 

[jod23]

Nathan Brown says hello.

Different sports too. AFL is a full contact sport where broken bones might not recover considering the kind of contact you can get in that sport. It would be different for say Paul George playing Basketball.

 

[jod23]

Time will obviously tell with PG. I know we all hope he comes back even better. The same for other starts, im sure we all hope D-Rose gets back to his best. It's great for the sport.

 

[Drumroe]

I'd think the successful comeback rates in ligament injuries and broken bones would be pretty similar. Alot of successful comebacks from ACL injuries too

 

[J Shuttlesworth]

Hornets was clearly done already Son of Skeletor

I'll see if I can slap something together next week. If not i'll let you know.

 

[FreoRicci]

Bogut broken arm
Kevin Ware broken leg

Look at AFL with Nathan Brown and the premier league history of broken legs as well.

It depends on the severity of the break and the other damage you do. PG's wasn't just a 'break', he basically snapped his leg in half, he's got a rod in there for life

Add Michael Barlow to that list. That was nasty in itself, and he has come back really well. It can be done, just all about the confidence and mental toughness.

 

[stewie griffen]

Add Michael Barlow to that list. That was nasty in itself, and he has come back really well. It can be done, just all about the confidence and mental toughness.

I certainly hope he does.

PG when up and going is one of the best guys to watch going around

 

[Son of Skeletor]

Hornets was clearly done already Son of Skeletor

There's a face to give you nightmares

I'll see if I can slap something together next week. If not i'll let you know.

All good, if you'd like to be quoted as a Hornet Expert instead that can easily be arranged too. I've already started to draft a Charlotte preview;

 

[OrdinaryJoel]

Atlanta_Cats - you still up for previewing the Hawks? BoshtrichBurger would love your thoughts on the Magic's off-season and tigs2010 yours on the Heat. J Shuttlesworth - interested in talking about the Hornets mate? Or at least letting me steal some of those mirthful face icons

Haven't payed much attention to the off-season so I'm unsure of who we've signed and who's on our list.

 

[stewie griffen]

Haven't payed much attention to the off-season so I'm unsure of who we've signed and who's on our list.

 

[Son of Skeletor]

Haven't payed much attention to the off-season so I'm unsure of who we've signed and who's on our list.

 

[OrdinaryJoel]

Pretty good acquisitions.

 

[Atlanta_Cats]

Hey Son of Skeletor hoping to have the preview done at some stage next week, don't know how mine will stack up compared to some of the great work done by some other people here.

 

[Son of Skeletor]

Hey Son of Skeletor hoping to have the preview done at some stage next week, don't know how mine will stack up compared to some of the great work done by some other people here.

Don't stress mate, it's all in good fun.

Opinion & discussion are what makes this board go round.

 

[stewie griffen]

As long as there's mead and priceys mlb multi jokes in there I think you are all good

 

[stewie griffen]

Onwards we go

2014/15 Record: 25-57

2014/15 Stats: 27th offensively, 25th defensively

2014/15 Leaders: Vuc 19.3ppg, Payton 6.5apg, Vuc, 10.9rpg

Draft: Mario Hezonja (5), Tyler Harvey (51)

Notable: Re-signed Tobias 4/64

Point
Elfrid Payton



Payton had a fantastic rookie season, back to back trip doubs, second highest assist total for a Magic rookie and played 82 games. Only 17% of his shots came without a dribble, not surprising given his role as a playmaker, and shot 49% on 2 point catch and shoots. Whilst not a super fast player, he has good basketball smarts enabling him to take advantage of mismatches and distribute the ball to teammates in scoring positions. His shot is a work in progress, from limited sample sizes it looks like top of the key and the right corner are his spots, and he was 50 and 47% at the rim, given further strength as he builds muscle and general improvement you'd expect that to improve.

CJ Watson and Shabaaz Napier provide capable back ups from the bench, and can play alongside each other in small combo lineups if need be.

SG
Oladipo/Fournier/Hezonja

The Magic find themselves loaded at the 2 spot. Oladipo is another who needs to improve his jumper, his chart reads similar to that of Payton, right corner and just around the 52% mark at the rim.


How well Dipo and Payton fit together is the key. Looking at march last season they Magic scored 104.6 points per 100 possessions, 11th int he league with Payton getting his triple doubles and Dipo hitting 43% of his non corner 3's. Thats the benchmark that Orlando will be looking to emulate this season. Dipo projects to have the most scope for improvement on his jumper, which is a key as it opens up driving lanes for Payton. At the moment Dipo is a below average shooter and ranks lowly in SportsVU gravity and distraction rankings. Similarly Payton ranks low here as well, which tells you that defenses currently dont bother guarding them closely from the perimeter. Payton and Dipo rank in the top 15 in drives per game, and nearly every pick and roll involving either of them will result in a drive by the ball handler. If you don't need to guard the shooter and know thats coming, then the pick and roll becomes far easier to defend, defenders can just go under the screen knowing that the shot won't come, resulting in this:

I've basically lifted large sections from Zach Lowe http://grantland.com/the-triangle/orlando-magic-victor-oladipo-elfrid-payton/

Injury to Dipo resulted in a larger than expected role for Fournier last season, resulting in career highs all over the board. Those numbers took a hit when Dipo returned (obviously), as he returned to the bench and was then injured himself late in the season. He shot 38% from deep, providing much needed shooting for the Magic. Defensively... yeah he's never going to win DPOY, but you can hide his weakness here relatively easily. Look for him to slot in as a 6th man, providing scoring and shooting off the bench, although how the Magic look to use Hezonja will impact his future to some extent. Mrio is listed as a SG, but will likely play more 3 and possibly even the 4 you would suggest.

Mario showed some nice signs in SL, albeit with a few turnovers and some questionable passing, but with his shooting prowess he'll slide nicely into Orlando. Defensively he'll show limitations given his age and Euro background, so its safe to say he'll start coming off the bench and try to force his way into the lineup. I'm thinking you'll see something similar to Mirotic, take a while to find his feet, put up some solid numbers when he gets playing time (or sooner if injury or trades occur) and then hit the wall.




Forwards

Given the makeup of the squad its possible that Harris and Gordon will play some minutes at the 4 in small ball lineups. Harris starts, purely because they are paying him too much to not start him. Harris assisted on less than 10% of the Magics buckets, one of the lowest rankings in the league, and defensively... well isn't great, to put it nicely. Given he just re-upped for 4/64, its not sure if he's a good numbers/bad team guy or if he can be the building block of a playoff contender. Whilst he put up (more than) decent corner 3 numbers (44%), his non corner 3's were around the 30% mark.

Harris veered away from the screen on about 25 percent of his pick-and-rolls, one of the league’s 10 highest rates. That said, he gets buckets, and if he can sacrifice a few ill advised jumpers and play a bit more defence he could be a borderline All Star (ok its the East). If can adjust to playing more at the 4 Orlando can put stacked athletic lineups on the floor, but can you trust him to put in the hard yards on the boards, and how poorly will a Vuc/Harris pairing be defensively remains to be seen.

Again, large sections pillaged from Lowe - http://grantland.com/the-triangle/the-good-the-bad-and-the-tobias/

Gordon is another sub standard shooter on a roster full of them, 27% from deep and 30% from mid range is all kinds of yuck. While his FT% was awful in college (42%), it improved dramatically into the 70% ballpark. But he can play defense, altho he did struggle at times against the 4's, although he did improve as he got used to the game, and will improve more as he puts on muscle. He can guard on the switch, a hugely valuable skill in todays game. Basically todays Shawn Marion is what he projects as, or maybe Iggy if they look to shift him to the perimeter a little more.

Channing Frye was signed to be the solution to the Magics shooting woes... although its fair to say it hasn't really worked. A PER of 9.48, 69th out of 72 power forwards tells you how he went, and given the makeup of the roster its fair to say he might be on the block. He has value around the league in the right roster, and his contract his not too much of a problem with the new cap.

Vucevic. Good offensive guy. Horrendous defensively. He shot around 50% out of the pick and roll last season and shows a nice touch on the midrange and floaters.



Thats a mighty fine looking shot chart... So whats the problem you say?

Opponents shot 55% at the rim against Vuc..... so bad the Orlando resorted to starting O'Quinn next to Vuc to provide some rim protection. If the Magic play Gordon/Vuc lineups it may help matters, altho Gordon won't provide much int he way of rim protection he is at least a capable off the ball defender. Altho if they are looking to put Harris in the 4, things could get nasty defensively.

I've not touched a Dedmon, but if Skiles wants someone to get in the pain and carry the hard hat, he should see a few minutes

Orlando have a great collection of talent, the problem is that none of them are going to be superstars, and all have their foibles. Which means you need a decent coach to pull something funky and mix and match lineups.... and they have Scott Skiles.... sigh

A word from our expert Liker BoshtrichBurger

I was not a fan of Skiles's tenure at the Bucks. But he's a guy that preaches tough team play so maybe our young core will benefit. He could be just a stop-gap measure of a hire for now and will probably be sacked when our team is almost primed for contention.

I am happy we re-signed Harris because not only have we retained an integral part of our future, but we did so with a fair deal and didn't have to overpay in the grand scheme of things.

Among our youngsters, Dipo just needs to improve on his consistency, he's already an elite athlete and needs to continue to bring others into play as well as get his own numbers. A smokey for All-Star if we rise up the conference.

Gordon had an interrupted rookie year but he had a solid end to the season. I'd be looking for him to get more minutes and continue to work on his offensive side of the game such as shooting etc. He's only recently turned 20 years old so I'd look at this season as another developmental year. Have high hopes but he's a project in my eyes.

Payton's shooting touch is always a worry but I'm hoping he makes some gradual improvement in that department. Aside from that I think he'll take the next step alongside Oladipo. Will be a backcourt to be feared defensively in a few seasons time I hope.

I loved the Hezonja pick too. He's an offensive treat. Great shot, great handles, great confidence and great athletic profile. Will be handy off the bench and potentially starting if things fall into place. A lot to work with which I like.

For Orlando this season, in the lower reaches of the top 8 in the East is what I'm hoping for. We've got enough talent on the roster now that I'm hoping we can slowly make our way back up.

And back to my poor attempts at analysis

In the Gun - Harris. He needs to justify that he's worth that extension and play some bloody defense.

Is a Gun - Payton.

Needs Improvement - Just look at those efficiency numbers... a combination of a more efficient offense - which comes down to shooting, and defense.

Question - Can Scott Skiles still coach? Defensive improvement will come under Skiles, but it remains to be seen whether he has the nous to get this team gelling offensively.

Crystal Ball
Improvement, although maybe not as much as everyone expects. I'm thinking a 37 win season or thereabouts, and in the 8th place fight

 

[Look2Me4Guidance]

Where does Pricey feature in distraction rankings?

 

[stewie griffen]

Where does Pricey feature in distraction rankings?

His shot chart is red.....

So the defender doesn't bother hedging his mlb multi

 

[Son of Skeletor]

I liked the CJ Watson signing for Orlando, gives them a legit second ball-handler and outside shooting threat. Means Dipo and Fournier won't be asked to play that role by defacto anymore.

Still worry about that soft underbelly in the middle though.