How close do you need to stay to the leaders to be in with a shot at the end?

[PowerForGood]

I'm wondering how far behind people think you can fall behind the leaders before you can write off your chances of winning the whole shebang?

I've scored 1933 and 1862 in the first 2 weeks, not bad I would have thought but I suspect by looking at scores that others have posted that I'm almost out of it already.

I guess factors to consider would include
- the number of trades left (I still have all 20),
- the performance of the bench (I had 6 players scoring 50+ this week),
- unique players in the team (eg Leigh Harding scoring 150 and 108 - only 1.5% of teams have him)
- avoiding the injuries / form slumps to common players (I've lost Haines and Hentschel so far)

 

[Kid A]

Remember that the early round leaders won't be the late round leaders, most likely.

 

[Tonche]

Long way to go yet.

The server debacle hurt me to the tune of 90 points last week (Had Anthony on field and had Beams, not Robinson set as emerg) but you just have to stick to your plan and start pegging back the difference.

 

[_RT_]

I was reading in last years Prospectus and it gives some great advice. To be amongst the top 50 players in 07 each week you need to score a minimum 2000 points and it goes up each and every week. In the first half of the season only 1 round had a top 50 cutoff score below 2150. In the second half of the season scoring less than 2200 woudn't have got you in the top 50. To put it simply back then you needed to improve your teams score by an average of 16 points per week.

FWIW I plan on trying to stick to the following plan:
Rounds 1-6 2000 point average = 12000
Rounds 7-12 2100 point average = 12600
Rounds 13-18 2200 point average = 13200
Round 18 on 2300 point average = 11500
Would give me a total of 49300.

 

[Lakey91]

Last years winning score was 45131. So probably a bit high there RT, though i do think the winning score will increase.

 

[_RT_]

Last years winning score was 45131. So probably a bit high there RT, though i do think the winning score will increase.

You have to aim high to finish high.

 

[the-X-factor]

Was ranked 1,181st after round 12 last year and finished 8th overall. Anyone within 1,000 points of the leader with 10 rounds to go can win.

 

[Kid A]

I was reading in last years Prospectus and it gives some great advice. To be amongst the top 50 players in 07 each week you need to score a minimum 2000 points and it goes up each and every week. In the first half of the season only 1 round had a top 50 cutoff score below 2150. In the second half of the season scoring less than 2200 woudn't have got you in the top 50. To put it simply back then you needed to improve your teams score by an average of 16 points per week.

FWIW I plan on trying to stick to the following plan:
Rounds 1-6 2000 point average = 12000
Rounds 7-12 2100 point average = 12600
Rounds 13-18 2200 point average = 13200
Round 18 on 2300 point average = 11500
Would give me a total of 49300.

49300 would just about be the greatest score in the history of humankind.

A 2050 average would have won you the comp last year, or very near. This year scores are a little higher so perhaps aim for 2125 or so. But that's over the entire season.

Remember that a different set of players is in the "top X" every week. This is why you can come in, say, in 2000th rank every week - after one week your rank will be 2000, after two weeks probably 1000, then 700, etc. Most high scores are a flash in the pan.

 

[_RT_]

49300 would just about be the greatest score in the history of humankind.

A 2050 average would have won you the comp last year, or very near. This year scores are a little higher so perhaps aim for 2125 or so. But that's over the entire season.

Remember that a different set of players is in the "top X" every week. This is why you can come in, say, in 2000th rank every week - after one week your rank will be 2000, after two weeks probably 1000, then 700, etc. Most high scores are a flash in the pan.

Realise the scores might be a little off but I had no idea what the winning score was so was just guessing. However I think that with rolling zones and such the winning score might be upto 2000 points higher than it was last year. Would be interesting to see the winning scores of the last few years to see just how much they have increased though.

With regards what I posted, what I was attempting to do was give a plan that people could use to build their side up through the year. Have a plan in place and look at it every 6 weeks to see where you are in relation to it. Then you can see if you're still on pace for what your goal is. Then you can work out whether you have to take more risks with your trading to try and make up ground or whether you can choose a less riskier plan to maintain trades in case trouble strikes.

 

[samwise]

yeah seriously dont even think about it in the early rounds. last year was my first real dt year and was top 500 from about rd4 onwards.
i let it get to me as i made trades to keep the ranking as i wasnt looking at long term and then when burgoyne, shaw, didak etc went down for me, i didnt have enough trades and played with 3+ 0s lots and drifted heaps (managed to somehow come 416th in the end). so dont even think about it for now so you dont get sucked into making too many trades early.

 

[GoNickGill]

Lol RealisticTiger being unrealistic.

 

[thebaxters]

I was about 26,000 odd after Rd 1 last year and finished second. You can come from a fair way back.

 

[PowerForGood]

Thanks for the advice guys and gals.

I see that I am 10,000th and about 500 off the lead already, so I'd better pull my proverbial finger out!

 

[Funkalicous]

yeah seriously dont even think about it in the early rounds. last year was my first real dt year and was top 500 from about rd4 onwards.
i let it get to me as i made trades to keep the ranking as i wasnt looking at long term and then when burgoyne, shaw, didak etc went down for me, i didnt have enough trades and played with 3+ 0s lots and drifted heaps (managed to somehow come 416th in the end). so dont even think about it for now so you dont get sucked into making too many trades early.

How much early trading is too many though? I think I'm forced to trade this week as not having Skipworth is killing me. If I don't fix this up ASAP I'm finished!

 

[brent-83]

I think you can come from a fair way back. I'm currently about 300 off the pace and pretty happy with that considering how my team is structured.

 

[chopperduck]

im sitting around 7100 and someone i know is sitting at about 340 with only 200 points between us. you would be surprised how close it is

 

[ZergMinion]

I've set my goal for the year to score higher than last years winner. At this early stage it looks like that won't be enough, but I'm sticking to the plan.

Of course after a rubbish round 2 I'm 45 points off the pace I set for myself

For those curious, the initial pace is 1920 a round for the first 7 rounds with an average of 2065 after round 13. Post round 7 to post round 13 are heavy on the trading.

Won't win me the eliminator, but a plan is a plan.

 

[Cosmo Kramer]

I think it all depends on your strategy as to how close to the leaders you need to be. Anywhere within 500-1000 after round 10 and you are still in it.

Alot of people score well early but have blown trades on impulse (or like-like) buys eg trading Malceski for Harding this week. The real people who mean business come to round 8-12 with 14-20 trades remaining just as their rookies are maxing out in value and thats when they trade up and end up with a midfield of ablett/bartel/swan/selwood/judd/pearce going into the last half of the season.

As long as your within the top 2000 by round 6 you could consider yourself a chance. But of course it all depends on how many trades you have left and your injury situation and the players you picked, eg if you picked Ottens/Raines/Tuck/S.Stevens you are probably forced into trading for similar players which might stuff your entire strategy.

 

[RustNeverSleeps]

The real people who mean business come to round 8-12 with 14-20 trades remaining just as their rookies are maxing out in value and thats when they trade up and end up with a midfield of ablett/bartel/swan/selwood/judd/pearce going into the last half of the season.

More of a crab than a keeper.

 

[Decipher]

im sitting around 7100 and someone i know is sitting at about 340 with only 200 points between us. you would be surprised how close it is

200points is alot after only two rounds.
If it was Round 7-8 200points would be considered nothing.
just becareful it doesnt keep dropping but at the same time dont make rash decisions that will hurt you in the long run.

Considering the spread I would expect the first 20,000 people to be within striking distance should they start clawing back from Rnd 3 or 4.