2012 Potential Draftee and Trade Watch

[muttonchops]

Might want someone to grab him a coffee between our first and last pick

Maybe even a few frothies and a trip to the nudie bar then ease back in for our second pick.

 

[muttonchops]

I have got a theory on our first pick. None of us can predict what Wells will pick. If you go back over recent history Wells has a track record of pulling roughies at our first pick that doesnt correlate with what many predict we will take. Have a look at who we have taken with our first picks recently.

2011- Joel Hamling, noone would have predicted that.
2010 - Billie Smedt, ok many predicted that one.
2009 - Daniel Menzel, even though he has proven to be a ripper wasnt high on the predictions.
2008 - Mitch Brown, not many predicted that.
2007 - Harry Taylor, out of the blue.

So i would say 4 out of our last 5 first picks have been ones that not many would have predicted. I know this is a bit of a loose theory but i just think the way Wells operates is he walks to the beat of his own drum and knows exactly who he wants and takes them. I am going to suggest this may happen again this year. Predict all you like but i hazard a guess that Wells will take someone noone or not many will have thought of.

 

[Lager]

I have got a theory on our first pick. None of us can predict what Wells will pick. If you go back over recent history Wells has a track record of pulling roughies at our first pick that doesnt correlate with what many predict we will take. Have a look at who we have taken with our first picks recently.

2011- Joel Hamling, noone would have predicted that.
2010 - Billie Smedt, ok many predicted that one.
2009 - Daniel Menzel, even though he has proven to be a ripper wasnt high on the predictions.
2008 - Mitch Brown, not many predicted that.
2007 - Harry Taylor, out of the blue.

So i would say 4 out of our last 5 first picks have been ones that not many would have predicted. I know this is a bit of a loose theory but i just think the way Wells operates is he walks to the beat of his own drum and knows exactly who he wants and takes them. I am going to suggest this may happen again this year. Predict all you like but i hazard a guess that Wells will take someone noone or not many will have thought of.

Wouldn't surprise me at all actually. Year after year the great minds in the media (and bf) make predictions for our first pick based on the top 20 most fashionable prospects. Year after year we're left surprised with Wells choice - but never the less accepting and then later in awe of his brilliance. Can't wait to see who we pick. I'm still tipping Menzel if he's available. If he is gone before pick 16, then it wouldn't surprise me to see someone rated pick 25-35 called out by Wells at 16 with Vlastuin, Garlett and Garner still on the table.

 

[onlymagic]

Wouldn't surprise me at all actually. Year after year the great minds in the media (and bf) make predictions for our first pick based on the top 20 most fashionable prospects. Year after year we're left surprised with Wells choice - but never the less accepting and then later in awe of his brilliance. Can't wait to see who we pick. I'm still tipping Menzel if he's available. If he is gone before pick 16, then it wouldn't surprise me to see someone rated pick 25-35 called out by Wells at 16 with Vlastuin, Garlett and Garner still on the table.

Haynes could be the one, if there are no real sliders, but I'm starting to get a bit excited about the prospect of Kennedy.

 

[Lager]

Haynes could be the one, if there are no real sliders, but I'm starting to get a bit excited about the prospect of Kennedy.

I hadn't heard much about Kennedy until the write up on the AFL website. Sounds very impressive!

 

[Mitt Romney]

Haynes could be the one, if there are no real sliders, but I'm starting to get a bit excited about the prospect of Kennedy.

Ben Kennedy sounds like a future star. Not sure at all why he isn't expected to go much higher than pick 16. I'd be happy with him. (back2back U18 AA)

Speaking of draft prospects, it'd be remiss of me not to mention Jake Stringer. From what I'm hearing, people in 'the know' are completely polarised. Some say top 5, others say he may very well reach the twenties. Plays like a top 5 (maybe a number 1 even), but having had an extraordinary injury as a youngster, clubs may select to play it safe.

Don't rule him out! Sure Wells would like to take a Selwood-esque punt on him. Cats were major keen on getting him last year when he looked to be a GWS mini-draft candidate (pre-injury).

 

[Megaman123]

Id put my house on it if Stringer is still there, we will take him. We looked at him for mini draft few years back, he trained with the club, and the potential has not changed. He is a 191 cm midfielder who can play forward and back as well. His attitude is first rate and he will make the clubs who overlook him in the top 10 look silly if he gets through that far. He has Wells risk pick all over him!

 

[Mitt Romney]

Id put my house on it if Stringer is still there, we will take him. We looked at him for mini draft few years back, he trained with the club, and the potential has not changed. He is a 191 cm midfielder who can play forward and back as well. His attitude is first rate and he will make the clubs who overlook him in the top 10 look silly if he gets through that far. He has Wells risk pick all over him!

But the question remains, is he (at all) a chance to last until 16? Doubtful. My bet is that GWS will pick him up (if he hasn't been picked up already) with their pick in the early teens

 

[thejester]

So i would say 4 out of our last 5 first picks have been ones that not many would have predicted. I know this is a bit of a loose theory but i just think the way Wells operates is he walks to the beat of his own drum and knows exactly who he wants and takes them. I am going to suggest this may happen again this year. Predict all you like but i hazard a guess that Wells will take someone noone or not many will have thought of.

I agree totally muttonchops. Still remember the audible gasps on the draft floor in 2008 when we picked Brown at 15. That said I think it's a bit of a limited sample - players like Corey, Bartel, Selwood etc were all very much 'orthodox' picks.

Wouldn't surprise me at all actually. Year after year the great minds in the media (and bf) make predictions for our first pick based on the top 20 most fashionable prospects. Year after year we're left surprised with Wells choice - but never the less accepting and then later in awe of his brilliance. Can't wait to see who we pick. I'm still tipping Menzel if he's available. If he is gone before pick 16, then it wouldn't surprise me to see someone rated pick 25-35 called out by Wells at 16 with Vlastuin, Garlett and Garner still on the table.

Loving the not-so-subtle irony in this post

 

[Mitt Romney]

I agree totally muttonchops. Still remember the audible gasps on the draft floor in 2008 when we picked Brown at 15. That said I think it's a bit of a limited sample - players like Corey, Bartel, Selwood etc were all very much 'orthodox' picks.

Why'd we even pick Brown anyway? Not suggesting he's not a decent player, but he was pick 15! We've debuted so many players from later selections in more recent drafts and they've become regulars and premiership players.

I don't mean to be one of those 'what if morons', but we took Brown in a draft that later saw Shuey, Zharakis, J Redden (who I rate enormously), D Beams (who speaks for himself), Hennebury and R Sloan. I really want to see Mitch get some solid games at AFL level, otherwise four years on it starts to look like we may have scored ourselves a dud pick.

 

[thejester]

Why'd we even pick Brown anyway? Not suggesting he's not a decent player, but he was pick 15! We've debuted so many players from later selections in more recent drafts and they've become regulars and premiership players.

I don't mean to be one of those 'what if morons', but we took Brown in a draft that later saw Shuey, Zharakis, J Redden (who I rate enormously), D Beams (who speaks for himself), Hennebury and R Sloan. I really want to see Mitch get some solid games at AFL level, otherwise four years on it starts to look like we may have scored ourselves a dud pick.

Brown grew some massive amount (10cm) over the summer of his draft, IIRC. So he didn't make the cut at Sandy as a midfielder, and then shows up for the season at his school side as a key position player - and started to absolutely dominate. Sandy got him into their side midseason where he dominated as well - and it was remarked at the time that he was outperforming Jack Watts and Tom Lynch, both of whom also played for the Dragons and who went before him in the draft.

Ultimately saying 'we could have picked x' is usually a bit of a fools errand - you're always going to miss some. Worth noting also that our first two picks were key position players; we clearly weren't in the market for midfielders in 2008.

 

[Mitt Romney]

Brown grew some massive amount (10cm) over the summer of his draft, IIRC. So he didn't make the cut at Sandy as a midfielder, and then shows up for the season at his school side as a key position player - and started to absolutely dominate. Sandy got him into their side midseason where he dominated as well - and it was remarked at the time that he was outperforming Jack Watts and Tom Lynch, both of whom also played for the Dragons and who went before him in the draft.

Ultimately saying 'we could have picked x' is usually a bit of a fools errand - you're always going to miss some. Worth noting also that our first two picks were key position players; we clearly weren't in the market for midfielders in 2008.

What's stopping him from getting more senior games? Vardy has been drafted after him and pretty much (barring a few injuries) slipped into a regular role in the seniors before him (Both KPF). I regularly hear that Brown is some VFL machine who kicks a bag week after week, yet he doesn't seem to be getting more than a game or two at AFL level.

 

[onlymagic]

I'm just thankful we picked him (I hope he comes on and realises his full potential next year too, I have faith) instead of who Hawthorn picked with the next pick.....

 

[thejester]

What's stopping him from getting more senior games? Vardy has been drafted after him and pretty much (barring a few injuries) slipped into a regular role in the seniors before him (Both KPF). I regularly hear that Brown is some VFL machine who kicks a bag week after week, yet he doesn't seem to be getting more than a game or two at AFL level.

Vardy has played games as a second ruck who can rest forward - different role to Brown's. Brown's emergence from his run of injuries has coincided with the drafting of Podsiadly and Hawkins breakout. I also think our gamestyle of kicking it long to a contest in the forward line doesn't suit him, as he's a lead-up forward who hasn't got the pack-crashing frame of Hawk or Pods.

Personally I think Brown's future is outside the 50, either as third tall defender who has the speed and agility to go with forwards like Gunston or an old-style CHF who leads up repeatedly onto the wing.

 

[Mitt Romney]

Love to see him get some more game time at AFL level. Although the Cats did put Josh Walker in our line up quite often towards the end of the season, probably suggests Walker is ahead of Brown. Their roles might be different, but they're both tall/ key forwards- which is probably Brown's best shot at making our 22 at the moment, given our back line is pretty solid. I'd love to see an experimental game (against a bottom team, at the Cattery) where we play Hawkins, Pods, Vardy, Walker and M Brown in the forward line (maybe even Kersten and Hammling, who I believe both play KPF too).

 

[muttonchops]

I agree totally muttonchops. Still remember the audible gasps on the draft floor in 2008 when we picked Brown at 15. That said I think it's a bit of a limited sample - players like Corey, Bartel, Selwood etc were all very much 'orthodox' picks.

That is true but all of those were picks inside or close to the top 10 which generally are easier to pick. When we are outside the top dozen Wells tends to suprprise us.

 

[FredLeDeux]

Love to see him get some more game time at AFL level. Although the Cats did put Josh Walker in our line up quite often towards the end of the season, probably suggests Walker is ahead of Brown. Their roles might be different, but they're both tall/ key forwards- which is probably Brown's best shot at making our 22 at the moment, given our back line is pretty solid. I'd love to see an experimental game (against a bottom team, at the Cattery) where we play Hawkins, Pods, Vardy, Walker and M Brown in the forward line (maybe even Kersten and Hammling, who I believe both play KPF too).

With all those big blokes crashing into each other at KP, Chappy/Motlop/Menzel ought to kick about 25 goals between them.

 

[Pivo]

I'm resigned to us losing our first pick in an attempt to land Boak - and since that is something I'd advocate I suppose I just need to remove these top 20 guys from my mind. I suspect Bourke, after more reading from people keeping a closer eye on things may cost us our 2nd or 3rd rounder.

Gonna make life tricky.

Assuming stars align we land an outside running mid who can find his own ball (Boak) and a 193 key position player who may take some time to develop (Bourke) I guess we look to either a mid or a backman depending on upgrades (Stringer & Walker seem most likely for mine).

As I said, I haven't seen anything of this years crop so there is just guess work but I know the type I'd like the sound of. Considering our first live pick might be late I'll be looking at the following guys;

Calen Jeffrey (183cm) & Jackson Thurlow (189cm) - Tassie

Even though Tassie have been smacked around in their first 2 games, these two guys sound like they are having a dip. Against SA Jeffrey had 28 touches (20 kicks & 4 tackles) & Thurlow had 25 (21 kicks and 8 tackles).

Against Vic Metro these two stood out again. Jeffrey had 30 touches (20 kicks) while Thurlow had 45 touches playing as a defender.

Thurlow in particular sounds promising considering the age of Josh Hunt and David Wojcinski but he might be a bit too tall to handle the small forwards.

However, Jeffrey isn't and also appears to playing off half back in the Champs.

So, yet again without trying I have found half back flankers again. Of course, both Duncan and Menzel played there in the Champs but ended up mid/fwd types.

Sadly, not too sure about their efficiency but they'll be 2 guys I'll be looking out for who appear to be standing up against the Div. 1 sides so far.

Also, Matt Scharenberg (189cm mid from SA) is a mid who has started alright (against weaker competition admittedly). I'll wait to see how he goes against the big boys.

Self indulgent *BUMP*

But this thread made for some good re-reading. When you look at the draft order we managed to pin a few guys early.

Nice work all.

 

[Belisarius]

Good work there Piv.

 

[Pivo]

There is actually some pretty good predictions made by a few of the thread's regulars. It is always a bit of fun to revisit after the draft to see how people did.

There were some good calls and some, hmmm, not so good calls (of which I also own but clearly won't bump ) through the thread.

There are a few guys around here that, despite limited viewing, don't do a bad job of informing the rest of us.

 

[year of the cat]

Was looking at our list now post draft to see what our areas of need may be in the future. The additions of Caddy and Thurlow have helped to somewhat cover the need for more contested midfielders and with Thurlow a marking, running back flanker to replace Enright when he retires.

If you try and compile a team excluding players that will be 28 yrs and above next year then you get something like this:

B: Bews, Hamling, Thurlow
HB: Murdoch, Taylor, T.Hunt
C: Varcoe, Horlin-Smith, Duncan
HF: Menzel, Vardy, Smedts
F: Motlop, Hawkins, Kersten

Foll: Simpson, Selwood, Christensen

Int: West, Caddy, Guthrie, Stringer

Emerg: McCarthy, Schroder, Brown, Cowan

Looking at that team we appear to be pretty solid up forward for a while now and also have a decent group of mids albeit that we should still be looking to add quality to this group. Doubts clearly are in our back six and with the quality of our ruck department. The additions of McIntosh and Rivers has bought us more time to address these areas but currently a lot of faith is being put on particularly Simpson and Hamling to come good as first ruck and KPD respectively.

You would think that with the departures in the next few years of Chapman, Corey, Enright, Bartel, Kelly, SJ, Stokes and J.Hunt we will still be looking to add a host of small to medium sized on-ballers to our list. Another KPD will be necessary and a quality ruck (resists mentioning the bloke who we could have got ;-)) will also be needed you would think.

Overall though our list is in great shape. We could challenge in 2013 if everything falls our way but even if we don't we have a raft of young talent coming through that would be the envy of most teams in the comp.

 

[Strangled Cat]

Was looking at our list now post draft to see what our areas of need may be in the future. The additions of Caddy and Thurlow have helped to somewhat cover the need for more contested midfielders and with Thurlow a marking, running back flanker to replace Enright when he retires.

If you try and compile a team excluding players that will be 28 yrs and above next year then you get something like this:

B: Bews, Hamling, Thurlow
HB: Murdoch, Taylor, T.Hunt
C: Varcoe, Horlin-Smith, Duncan
HF: Menzel, Vardy, Smedts
F: Motlop, Hawkins, Kersten

Foll: Simpson, Selwood, Christensen

Int: West, Caddy, Guthrie, Stringer

Emerg: McCarthy, Schroder, Brown, Cowan

Looking at that team we appear to be pretty solid up forward for a while now and also have a decent group of mids albeit that we should still be looking to add quality to this group. Doubts clearly are in our back six and with the quality of our ruck department. The additions of McIntosh and Rivers has bought us more time to address these areas but currently a lot of faith is being put on particularly Simpson and Hamling to come good as first ruck and KPD respectively.

You would think that with the departures in the next few years of Chapman, Corey, Enright, Bartel, Kelly, SJ, Stokes and J.Hunt we will still be looking to add a host of small to medium sized on-ballers to our list. Another KPD will be necessary and a quality ruck (resists mentioning the bloke who we could have got ;-)) will also be needed you would think.

Overall though our list is in great shape. We could challenge in 2013 if everything falls our way but even if we don't we have a raft of young talent coming through that would be the envy of most teams in the comp.

Our forward line looks elite, our midfield is solid without going so far as to say great and our defence on paper looks promising but still unknown. If we were to field a team similar to that in say 2015 when Scott believes our next Premiership window will be open (I know we are a realistic chance next year but 215 was the year when our next generation were to push through in their own right) I'd say that we'd be in a great position to capitalise on that.

Our forward line is awesome now and won't change much in 2 years. The potential has already been realised for the most part, with key posts Hawk and Vards set to dominate their positions for the rest of this decade at least. Our midfield looks good, with Caddy, Hyphen and Schroder hopefully coming on leaps and bounds in the next couple of years. Led by our fearless leader, I'm hopeful that they can be our grunt in the middle, with Duncan, Varcoe and Bundy playing outside roles with Smedts pushing through the guts as well.

Our defence is the big unknown, and is the one area apart from our ruck stocks which could change between now and 2015. If Simpson stays fit and improves progressively, we should be set in the ruck, but if not something will have to be done quickly because Hmac is no long term solution. It's the back part of our team where we just can't be certain of just how good it will be and until such time that Rivers, Mackie and Lonergan are set to retire and these guys have to fend (defend) for themselves, we can only live in hope. Hamling could come on in 2 years and be brilliant, or he may just be serviceable at best. Taylor will be an anchor for at least the next 5 years, but hopefully he won't have to be the only one who carries us.

We won 3 flags with a brilliant defence and midfield, with an average forward line with great small forwards and no obvious star KP forwards except for Hawks coming of age game in the 2011 GF. I could see us perhaps snagging a flag with an average backline if our mids all come on in leaps and bounds and our forward line keeps producing like it has shown the potential to do. But all of this would have to happen coupled with some luck - luck on the same scale as Hawthorn, just to snag one. Great defences win Premierships, our great defence along with our midfield won 3. So in my mind it is criticallly important that we get it right, and I think Stephen Wells feels the same way and has started by drafting Enrights replacement in Thurlow.

 

[year of the cat]

Yes SC agree with all that. The key defensive posts appear to be the greatest area of need. With Gillies failing to come on it has put us back a few years in finding that impossible replacement for Scarlett. Rivers will be hopefully a good band-aid but unless we go back to the FA route again we will need to go into next years draft with a suitable tall in mind.

Hopefully Simpson does come on in 2013. I'm not confident and I wonder whether the bringing in of McIntosh will be a further impediment to his development? Now that we have bypassed on Grundy, Simpson has to be the man or Wells will have egg on his face (assuming of course that Grundy becomes the player I think he will).

More mids will need to be brought in. I think with Selwood, Duncan, Christensen, Caddy, Varcoe, Guthrie and T.Hunt we have got a very good nucleus of young mids. I think we still need a bit more outside run. Also someone who can win their own footy with the ability to accelerate away from contested situations ala Dangerfield. Easier said than done to find these players unless you have a couple of early picks on your hands. Toumpas looks a great get to me for Melbourne this year and is the type I have in mind.

Hopefully Horlin-Smith can continue to improve next year. A strong pre-season in the gym and he can become another clearance player to help out Selwood and Christensen. Caddy should also be valuable here.

Of course I'm ignoring the fact that we still will get great footy from the old guard of Bartel, Kelly, and SJ. But we do need to reduce our reliance on them next year and have the young guys come through and be earning games through their own good form.

I would think from a retirement side of things we will definitely see the last years from Chapman and Corey. I'm not expecting too much from either in 2013. J.Hunt may also pull up stumps depending on how his form is next year. That's 3 picks. I'd say that unless Cowan and Brown have good years then they will be on their way out too. I'm struggling to find any other potential list changes other than perhaps Stokes but he was solid this year so that's probably unlikely.

 

[Turbocat]

Yes SC agree with all that. The key defensive posts appear to be the greatest area of need. With Gillies failing to come on it has put us back a few years in finding that impossible replacement for Scarlett. Rivers will be hopefully a good band-aid but unless we go back to the FA route again we will need to go into next years draft with a suitable tall in mind.

What you say is fair but one must allow for the random occurrence , there will be players drafted for other positions that may end up in D. Will that be Brown or Walker only time will tell. Even a player that falls out of the system form elsewhere. If the Caddy trade proves to work well , we may start looking at this drafting method for a defender.
The other is our "area of need" would potentially have been less if Sully had come on our list. So I question now the choice of keeping Sheringham as a Rookie. We have so many potential mids , Sheringham will have to show something exception to be kept beyond 2013

 

[year of the cat]

What you say is fair but one must allow for the random occurrence , there will be players drafted for other positions that may end up in D. Will that be Brown or Walker only time will tell. Even a player that falls out of the system form elsewhere. If the Caddy trade proves to work well , we may start looking at this drafting method for a defender.
The other is our "area of need" would potentially have been less if Sully had come on our list. So I question now the choice of keeping Sheringham as a Rookie. We have so many potential mids , Sheringham will have to show something exception to be kept beyond 2013

Do you mean being prepared to let another champion go in order to use the compo pick to pick a defender? I'm not quite sure what you mean here.

I would say that the brains trust must have been confident that Sully wouldn't be taken for them to let him go. That, or all of us are overrating him and they have no opinion of him!

I agree that Sheringham has quite a few mids in front of him. The club does in most cases tend to give rookies the allocated couple of years to demonstrate whether they are up to AFL level or not. Sheringham will have to go well in 2013 or it will be curtains. Same for Eardley and Burbury really. Walker, being KP, may be given a bit longer.